A very good discussion.
Only thing I would add is that extreme positions are not needed.
Pakistan doesn't have to hate the west to prove its loyalty to the Chinese.
Even the Chinese understand the attraction the west ,with its standard of living has for any developing country.
The Pakistan governments understood this well and maintained ok relations with both.
Though now I am not too sure where this government is headed.
Ofcourse as a Indian I would prefer that so much energy and attention of 2 countries was not focused on us , but that's something we can't control, can only react to it.
you were doing well but then you slyly inserted a imaginary India usa split. Carry on.
The economic base determines the superstructure. This is why countries such as Pakistan cannot live without USA, which is Pakistan's largest exporter. This is also why foreign Pakistanis generally tend to USA, their personal interests are tied to the U.S. economy. This is also the reason why Germany, Hungary, Poland and other EU countries abandoned Lithuania.
The Chinese economy and the US economy are deeply complementary, just look at the increasing trade volume between the two countries every year. This is why the two countries are hostile to each other and their economies cannot always be decoupled.
Well, I know what you're trying to say that is what I'm saying is nonsense. The question you blame is why I say USA and India are bound to break up. You think India, like China, has a population of 1.4 billion, and its economy is complementary to that of USA.
First of all, I want to tell you that the nature of China's economy is different from that of India's economy. China is an export-oriented economy and India is an inward oriented economy. China's industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy, while India's service industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy. USA is also an inward looking economy, with its service industry accounting for about 80% of the economy.
Export oriented economies rely on exports, while inward oriented economies rely on imports, so the US economy does not need India. On the contrary, both the Indian economy and the US economy need China. You might say that India can also transform into an export-oriented economy, but this is almost impossible.
The reason why China is an export-oriented economy is determined by China's social conditions. Similarly, India's social conditions determine that India must be an inward oriented economy.
In fact, India's efforts to reform its outward facing economy began in 2006, not 2014. Although India's manufacturing industry has made progress with the development of economy, the development of service industry is faster, the nature of India's economy has not changed.
India's social problems have restricted the development speed of India's manufacturing industry. Even in 2018, China took the initiative to transfer labor-intensive industries abroad because of population stop growth, Modi and Indian media vigorously publicized the Indian market, and trump and Japan actively supported India. Joint efforts in the three directions, but the reality is that the low-end manufacturing industry represented by garment manufacturing, agricultural product processing and electronic product assembly line is transferring to ASEAN, Bangladesh and other countries, not India. Like the problems encountered by China when implementing CPEC in Pakistan, India has the same and more serious problems, such as weak infrastructure, low education level of workers, poor physical quality&low life expectancy, low status of women&insufficient labor liberation, frequent terrorist attacks&insecure investment security, strong local forces&corrupt and cumbersome investment channels, etc.
Solving these problems requires social reform based on agricultural reform, continuous investment and a lot of time. However, western capital is different from Chinese capital guided by the government, they lack patience and long-term planning, and Pakistan needs far less investment than India, so Pakistan still has hope of success.
So subsequently, modi started agricultural reform ahead of schedule, which was almost the last effort of India's industrialization transformation and modi's last gamble. Because every industrialized country has completed social reform through agricultural reform, which is the basis of a country's industrialization. However, under the interference of the combination of vested interest groups in India and foreign political forces, modi still failed.
Now, India's transformation efforts have completely failed, even if India's economy will continue to grow, most of it is based on the growth of services rather than manufacturing. The continuously depreciating Indian currency, countries such as Japan that no longer give support (turning to countries such as Vietnam), and the low rated Indian economy and debt show that the world has given up its efforts to India.
I know you will begin to talk about the common values and similar social systems of USA and India, but this is precisely the reason why USA is bound to break with India.
With a population of 1.4 billion, India's final economic scale is bound to be close to or even surpass USA. However, you need to understand one truth:
China's economic surpassing the United States will not end American hegemony, and China's and India's economic surpassing USA together will inevitably end American hegemony.
Do you think common values mean you must have a geopolitical allies?
You may not know that after WW II, USA first attacked the colonial problems of European countries such as Britain and France and disintegrated their overseas forces, USA even did not hesitate to join hands with USSR to seize British and French control of the Suez Canal.
After the end of the Korean War, USSR soon asked for troops to be stationed in China in an attempt to control China. After being rejected by China, USSR immediately severed diplomatic relations with China.
I think you should understand something: Trump can only prevent Biden from becoming president of USA, but Sanders can turn Biden into a second-rate politician in USA. Similarly, when India's economy grows to a certain extent (in 1985, the Japanese economy was equivalent to 40% of the US economy, and USA began to suppress Japan), USA must give priority to attacking the Indian economy. This will also lead to a break between the two countries or India's submission.
