China has a NFU (no first use) pledge or does it?
I disagree.
China's NFU (no first use) pledge has shifted over the decades. Let me get the citation.
It used to be NFU for everyone. Then it changed to NFU for only non-nuclear weapon states. Then they hinted it's NFU for countries that don't use WMDs (weapons of mass destruction).
The truth is that China's NFU pledge has shifted. This is also true of Russia/Soviet Union. Their NFU pledge changed as time passed. Let me look for that citation too.
I'll go look for some statements by Chinese generals. There was certainly plenty of ambiguity when I read their statements regarding China's nuclear forces.
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Here is my citation from a Chinese major general. It doesn't sound like no-first-use policy to me.
China: We’d nuke U.S.if provoked over Taiwan
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China: We'd nuke U.S. if provoked over Taiwan
Major general says Beijing prepared to use WMDs against American cities
Published: 07/14/2005 at 6:05 PM
A Chinese military official says Beijing will use nuclear weapons against the U.S. if the Americans attack the Asian nation in a fight over Taiwan.
“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Zhu Chenghu, a major general in the People’s Liberation Army, said at an official briefing, according to the Financial Times.
Today, however, the Chinese government distanced itself from the comments.
“What he talked about were just his personal views,” said Shen Guofang, an assistant minister of foreign affairs.
Speaking at a function organized for foreign journalists, Zhu noted the definition of China’s territory includes warships and aircraft.
“If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond,” Zhu said. “We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds … of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”
The Financial Times notes Zhu is a self-acknowledged “hawk” who has warned previously that China could strike the U.S. with long-range missiles. But his threat to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan is the most specific by a senior Chinese official in nearly a decade.
Zhu is not the first Chinese official to mention the use of nuclear weapons first in a conflict over Taiwan.
Chas Freeman, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense, said in 1999 that a PLA official had told him China could respond in kind to a nuclear strike by the U.S. in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.
“In the end you care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei,” Freeman quoted this official as saying.
Though official U.S. policy on Taiwan is that it is part of mainland China – the “one China” policy – President Bush has said the U.S. would defend the island republic if it were attacked by Beijing.
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Reference for ambiguity in China's NFU pledge:
No first use - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"China
China is the first to propose and pledge NFU policy when it first gained nuclear capabilities in 1964, stating "not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances".
Nonetheless, some scholars and observers have questioned the credibility of China's NFU policy.[8][9] For instance, China had reportedly considered nuclear strikes against the Soviet Union in the event of a conventional Soviet attack. However, China has repeatedly re-affirmed its no-first-use policy in recent years, doing so in 2005, 2008, 2009 and again in 2011. In 2010, the Pentagon concluded that although there is "some ambiguity over the conditions under which China's [no-first-use] policy would or would not apply...there has been no indication that national leaders are willing to attach such nuances and caveats to China's 'no first use' doctrine"[10][11][12][13]"
Reference for Russia dropping Soviet Union's NFU pledge (see footnote):
No first use - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"
In 1993, Russia dropped a pledge given by the former Soviet Union not to use nuclear weapons first.[5] In 2000, a Russian military doctrine stated that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons "in response to a large-scale conventional aggression".[6]"
