China estimates COVID surge is infecting 37 million people a day

[S10]

China need western vaccines to suvive this wave. mRNA baby!

While it's true that SinoVac is less effective against Omicron, that's not the primary issue. My family got 3 doses, but the last dose was a year ago. The government went for zero COVID as the national strategy and stopped pushing booster shots. Any protection has long worn off if you didn't receive a dose in the past 6 months.

Against "How efficacious is the vaccine?
A large phase 3 trial in Brazil showed that two doses, administered at an interval of 14 days, had an efficacy of 51% against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 100% against severe COVID-19, and 100% against hospitalization starting 14 days after receiving the second dose."

The Sinovac-CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine: What you need to know

The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization has issued Interim recommendations for use of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine against COVID-19 in people aged 18 years and older.

www.who.int

 

[S10]

I am going to take an educated guess on this.

We know China's National Health Commission estimated that 37 millions are being infected per day:

China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day

Nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week, according to estimates from the government’s top health authority, making the country’s outbreak by far the world’s largest.

www.bloomberg.com

We know that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Omicron is 0.006% among the unvaccinated.

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/reports-publications/canada-communicable-disease-report-ccdr/monthly-issue/2022-48/issue-10-october-2022/ccdrv48i10a09-eng.pdf

We know that 90% of Chinese population is fully vaccinated.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Income groups are based on the World Bank classification. A full list of our...

ourworldindata.org

We know that SinoVac is 69% effective as preventing ICU or death against Omicron.

Covid-19 update: Sinovac 'modest' defence against Omicron in children

Young children who received two doses of China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd. vaccine gained “modest” defences against Covid Omicron infections.

www.pharmaceutical-technology.com

We know that it will take 70% of the population to be infected to reach herd immunity.

How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough? (Published 2020)

Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.

www.nytimes.com

1400000000 (China's population) / 37000000 (estimated daily infections) = 38 Days

So 37000000 (daily infections) *0.006 (unvaccinted IFR) = 222,000 deaths (if not vaccinated)

0.90 (vaccination rate) * 0.69 (efficacy against fatality) = 0.621 effectiveness

222,000 * 0.379 = 83380 Deaths Per Day * 38 (Days Needed to Reach Herd Immunity) = 3.1 Million Deaths Total

 

[Mista]

I am going to take an educated guess on this.

We know China's National Health Commission estimated that 37 millions are being infected per day:

China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day

Nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week, according to estimates from the government’s top health authority, making the country’s outbreak by far the world’s largest.

www.bloomberg.com

We know that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Omicron is 0.006% among the unvaccinated.

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/reports-publications/canada-communicable-disease-report-ccdr/monthly-issue/2022-48/issue-10-october-2022/ccdrv48i10a09-eng.pdf

We know that 90% of Chinese population is fully vaccinated.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Income groups are based on the World Bank classification. A full list of our...

ourworldindata.org

We know that SinoVac is 69% effective as preventing ICU or death against Omicron.

Covid-19 update: Sinovac 'modest' defence against Omicron in children

Young children who received two doses of China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd. vaccine gained “modest” defences against Covid Omicron infections.

www.pharmaceutical-technology.com

We know that it will take 70% of the population to be infected to reach herd immunity.

How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough? (Published 2020)

Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.

www.nytimes.com

1400000000 (China's population) / 37000000 (estimated daily infections) = 38 Days

So 37000000 (daily infections) *0.006 (unvaccinted IFR) = 222,000 deaths (if not vaccinated)

0.90 (vaccination rate) * 0.69 (efficacy against fatality) = 0.621 effectiveness

222,000 * 0.379 = 83380 Deaths Per Day * 38 (Days Needed to Reach Herd Immunity) = 3.1 Million Deaths Total

Great job. Some points to add:

1) I think you forgot to multiply China's population by 70% to reach the theoretical herd immunity. So it will be 3.1mil deaths * 0.7 = 2.17mil deaths. Though that's only for the first wave in ~2-3 months. Infections and deaths will continue to occur as seen in other countries, albeit at a much lower rate.

2) A booster jab helps significantly. HK's data from 31 Dec 2021 to 21 Dec 2022 (basically the Omicron variant):

https://www.covidvaccine.gov.hk/pdf/death_analysis.pdf

For 2-dose Sinovac recipients, the fatality rate falls by around half in the >60 age groups if an additional dose is taken.
age 60-69 group: 0.19% > 0.08%
age 70-79 group: 0.72% > 0.35%
age 80+ group: 4.19% > 2.20%

We know that a significant portion of those above aged 60 has received a booster, and many had boosters of different brand (Sinopharm, CanSino etc) which is likely to be more effective than Sinovac.

China Pushes Elderly Vaccination as Reopening Pressure Grows

China said it would bolster vaccination among its senior citizens, a move regarded by health experts as crucial to reopening an economy stuck in an endless loop of harsh Covid Zero curbs. But it stopped short of announcing mandates that helped raise inoculation rates in other countries.

www.bloomberg.com

So the number will likely be lower than 2.17mil deaths; probably 1mil+ deaths which is in line with many estimates.

 

[MH.Yang]

1, The number of people infected may have exceeded 200 million, not tens of millions. I hope it will not lead to a more powerful COVID variant.

2, More than 90% of Chinese people have been vaccinated, and now I rarely see severe patients. Few people died, but certainly not zero.

3, The Chinese government suddenly dismantled all blockades. The Chinese people have been used to the security environment of "COVID zero policy", and lack experience in living in a non security environment. This led to the accelerated diffusion of COVID.

4, Hospitals in our city only accept elderly and underage patients, and require other patients to treat at home. Because there are few patients with severe diseases, medical resources are still sufficient for the time being. But antipyretic drugs are already out of stock.

5, Almost all of us have been vaccinated, so we don't need a vaccine. We need more antipyretic drugs and antigen kits.

 

[Song Hong]

Great job. Some points to add:

1) I think you forgot to multiply China's population by 70% to reach the theoretical herd immunity. So it will be 3.1mil deaths * 0.7 = 2.17mil deaths. Though that's only for the first wave in ~2-3 months. Infections and deaths will continue to occur as seen in other countries, albeit at a much lower rate.

2) A booster jab helps significantly. HK's data from 31 Dec 2021 to 21 Dec 2022 (basically the Omicron variant):
View attachment 907856
View attachment 907855

https://www.covidvaccine.gov.hk/pdf/death_analysis.pdf

For 2-dose Sinovac recipients, the fatality rate falls by around half in the >60 age groups if an additional dose is taken.
age 60-69 group: 0.19% > 0.08%
age 70-79 group: 0.72% > 0.35%
age 80+ group: 4.19% > 2.20%

We know that a significant portion of those above aged 60 has received a booster, and many had boosters of different brand (Sinopharm, CanSino etc) which is likely to be more effective than Sinovac.

View attachment 907857

China Pushes Elderly Vaccination as Reopening Pressure Grows

China said it would bolster vaccination among its senior citizens, a move regarded by health experts as crucial to reopening an economy stuck in an endless loop of harsh Covid Zero curbs. But it stopped short of announcing mandates that helped raise inoculation rates in other countries.

www.bloomberg.com

So the number will likely be lower than 2.17mil deaths; probably 1mil+ deaths which is in line with many estimates.

I calculated 1 additional million death. A lot of Sinovac data are mis-interpreted just like Singapore.

HK doctors hate Sinovac, as their medical cartel hoard lots of Pfizer, seeing their profit vaporizes to a large extend when GoHK decide to dole out free Sinovac.

If we compare Sinovac vs Pfizer death of young, Sinovac is not far off. But the overall results of Sinovac death is highly skewed. That points to the possibilities that Sinovac is administered to the old and those with chronic ailment due to its less toxicity (as per Singapore), and result to higher death cases.

 

[Han Patriot]

Ask your govt that,
What are they hiding by refusing to publish numbers of deaths?

Meanwhilwe there are “body jams” in the streets, even running out of stretchers and bodies being dragged on the streets ..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607305917711753216

I agree bro, ALL CHINA IS FULL OF BODIES.lololol

 

[Han Patriot]

I calculated 1 additional million death. A lot of Sinovac data are mis-interpreted just like Singapore.

HK doctors hate Sinovac, as their medical cartel hoard lots of Pfizer, seeing their profit vaporizes to a large extend when GoHK decide to dole out free Sinovac.

If we compare Sinovac vs Pfizer death of young, Sinovac is not far off. But the overall results of Sinovac death is highly skewed. That points to the possibilities that Sinovac is administered to the old and those with chronic ailment due to its less toxicity (as per Singapore), and result to higher death cases.

Most likely will have around 1 mil deaths of mostly old and weak but won't be as high as Indian 6 million.

 

[Han Patriot]

Emergency ward overwhelmed bodies everywhere. LATEST UPDATE

 

[aziqbal]

Actually I believe it.

Out of my family members in China, 2/3 have already gotten it. Most recovered in 3 to 5 days. Fever, cough, loss of taste and muscle pain are the most common symptoms. None of them required hospital treatment, but there is a shortage of off the counter medication.

These ones clearly didn’t

China doesn’t even care for it’s citizens

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607844727134605324

 

[S10]

These ones clearly didn’t

China doesn’t even care for it’s citizens

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607844727134605324

Meh, FLG twitter account

 

[DabbuSardar]

I agree bro, ALL CHINA IS FULL OF BODIES.lololol

You should then ask your govt to apologize for forcing the failed zero covid policy for almost three years an locking up poor chinese since.
Also make them accountable for providing safe Healthcare and produce or import working vaccines.

 

[Han Patriot]

You should then ask your govt to apologize for forcing the failed zero covid policy for almost three years an locking up poor chinese since.
Also make them accountable for providing safe Healthcare and produce or import working vaccines.

Apologise to who? INDIA? People are now complaining why the government stop zero covid so soon, some want it back, i personally am okay with following the Indian let them die method. Lololol

I guess 90 countries using Chinese vaccines and doing better than India is lying huh. Import Indian cowpiss vaccine? 70 kids just died from buying yindoo cough syrup mate. Now don't blame it on Chinese APIs mate. Lol

LATEST UPDATE, Covid riot in shipyard, demanding Mrna vaccines.

 

[RescueRanger]

I truly wish our Chinese friends come out of this well. It’s being blown out of all proportion’s in western media. I am not a scientist so can’t comment on vaccine efficacy.

But all gene therapy carries risks, Astra Zeneca vaccines have led to people in Pakistan developing chronic lumbar pain, others have reported allergic hives, but I suppose it’s a small price to pay for peace of mind knowing you are “safe” lol.

@MH.Yang makes a really valid point in his post. The numbers being presented are skewed.

As for Sinovac Coronavac, these were administered to Pakistani emergency service workers - no deaths so far, despite dealing with the odd outbreak here and there.

Official trial data here:

Sinovac: CoronaVac – COVID19 Vaccine Tracker

covid19.trackvaccines.org

 

[RescueRanger]

@LeGenD please review some of the rampant trolling in this thread from our neighbour to the east.

Thank you.

 

[beijingwalker]

3 dose sinopharm, 3 days to recover, mild fever and no cough. Yeap, Chinese vaccines don't work.

You are stronger than me, I got it 2 weeks ago and it took me 4 days to recover.