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China 2025-2030: how many 2-trillion-dollar provinces?

How many 2-trillon-dollar provinces do you think China will have in 2025-2030?

  • 3 (Guangdong+Jiangsu+Shandong)

  • 4 (big 3+Zhejiang or Henan)

  • 5 (big 3+ Zhejiang+Henan)

  • Other combinations (pls comment)


Results are only viewable after voting.

AndrewJin

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China 2025-2030 (as in Made-in-China 2025 shaped by the new industrial revolution)
as I see will be a country of:
a couple of 2-trillon-dollar provinces
numerous 1-trillion-dollar provinces
and other smaller provinces with smaller population.


Last time, we have discussed about China's now and future's 1-trillion-dollar economies.
Chinese provinces: more to join trillion dollar club

屏幕快照 2017-08-07 16.18.20.png


If you look at the top 3 provinces in China, all have at least one-trillion-dollar GDP, growing at 7-8% annually. Their question should not be about 1 but when to become two-trillion-dollar economies. Of course, China's most rapidly growing provinces will be mostly in Western China. But mind that 90% Chinese are living in Eastern China (east to Tengchong-Mohe Line). The core area in Eastern China, is still and will be always China's major economic engine.

Let's discuss in the thread:
How many 2-trillon-dollar provinces do you think
China will have in 2025-2030?


 
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the biggest challenge to us is how to build a strong, efficient and defensive financial system that can deter American institutional funds that speculate on other country's financial volatility.

these kind of battles are mostly unknown to most people, but more lethal than a direct conflict. Economically, technologically and industrially weak countries are very vulnerable to American institutional funds. As they do not have any economical or industrial leverages to fight off those greedy predator's market making.

take the primitive country India for example, you would be surprised to find out that Indian Government has to spend nearly 26% of its annual budget to pay-off its foreign debt's interests alone, and mostly are Dollar debt. and the interests rate India is paying is amount the highest of all borrowers, which is well of 5% of interests rate.

One of the reasons are that India's daily activities are very much dependent on the supply of foreign goods, moneys and technologies. It has failed to develop a competitive industry to meet its internal demand, and to diversify its economy structure hence to embrace the robustness of the country's economy. They need billions of Dollars every month in order to pay for all of these imported goods (from the very basic like flags and toys to the sophisticated ones like capital appliances and data processing equipment), so this leaves them no option rather then keep buying and borrowing Dollars from the U.S.

But someone may ask how can the U.S is making money, when the obviose trade is done between countries, like say, a trading between India and China, or India and Germany? It is very simple, India needs to borrow or buy Dollars to pay-off Chinese or German goods, the U.S governmant or its institutional funds can simply earn the profit by manipulate the market to have a strong Dollar against weak Rupee in the case of buying, and it comes even more simpler when borrow is concerned, as India has to pay interests rate at lender's desired level.

Do you know why the West are very frustrated by the fact that the Central Bank of China pegged RMB's exchange rate to the Dollar, and at meantime still has some room to maneuver? anyone has an educated brain can work this out, as we China as the late comer and potential challenger to the existing world order, we need strong and smart ways to make sure we wont lose too much in dealing with them in such unfaverable world order. As China develops day by day, the "attacks" from international money funds are getting more and more frenzy. Because they know, if China has completed its planned industrial and technological transformation, there would be very little room left to the West to continue exploring the world in the order they have created by which defended with nasty and bloody wars.

Some people would laugh at me that no such things as international institutional fund attack can bring down a country or even weakening it, and it serves as national interests by doing that. Honestly I wouldnt believe this, and would think it is kind of movie plot, but I had started to think about that after attended one seminar by George Soros at LSE London 2004. As an internationally renowed investor and businessman, during his hour long speach, I was very surprised to note that, every bit of his business and investment philosophy had very strong touch of political ideology, and serves very clear purpose of promoting and defending the American way of value and order. That was the point when I started to look at things differently from different perspectives.

That is why I strongly believe that at the current level of human civilization, the world isnt built by "righteous powers" or even human "consciousness" but strength in the most boldest way. That is also why I am not very into how many $2 trillion provinces we are going to have, but the level of technologcial advancement, extent of cultural influences and diversity of our industry are the areas that I am very interested.

Give us another 20 years, we will deliver you a brand new China```天佑中华!
 
.
the biggest challenge to us is how to build a strong, efficient and defensive financial system that can deter American institutional funds that speculate on other country's financial volatility.

these kind of battles are mostly unknown to most people, but more lethal than a direct conflict. Economically, technologically and industrially weak countries are very vulnerable to American institutional funds. As they do not have any economical or industrial leverages to fight off those greedy predator's market making.

take the primitive country India for example, you would be surprised to find out that Indian Government has to spend nearly 26% of its annual budget to pay-off its foreign debt's interests alone, and mostly are Dollar debt. and the interests rate India is paying is amount the highest of all borrowers, which is well of 5% of interests rate.

One of the reasons are that India's daily activities are very much dependent on the supply of foreign goods, moneys and technologies. It has failed to develop a competitive industry to meet its internal demand, and to diversify its economy structure hence to embrace the robustness of the country's economy. They need billions of Dollars every month in order to pay for all of these imported goods (from the very basic like flags and toys to the sophisticated ones like capital appliances and data processing equipment), so this leaves them no option rather then keep buying and borrowing Dollars from the U.S.

But someone may ask how can the U.S is making money, when the obviose trade is done between countries, like say, a trading between India and China, or India and Germany? It is very simple, India needs to borrow or buy Dollars to pay-off Chinese or German goods, the U.S governmant or its institutional funds can simply earn the profit by manipulate the market to have a strong Dollar against weak Rupee in the case of buying, and it comes even more simpler when borrow is concerned, as India has to pay interests rate at lender's desired level.

Do you know why the West are very frustrated by the fact that the Central Bank of China pegged RMB's exchange rate to the Dollar, and at meantime still has some room to maneuver? anyone has an educated brain can work this out, as we China as the late comer and potential challenger to the existing world order, we need strong and smart ways to make sure we wont lose too much in dealing with them in such unfaverable world order. As China develops day by day, the "attacks" from international money funds are getting more and more frenzy. Because they know, if China has completed its planned industrial and technological transformation, there would be very little room left to the West to continue exploring the world in the order they have created by which defended with nasty and bloody wars.

Some people would laugh at me that no such things as international institutional fund attack can bring down a country or even weakening it, and it serves as national interests by doing that. Honestly I wouldnt believe this, and would think it is kind of movie plot, but I had started to think about that after attended one seminar by George Soros at LSE London 2004. As an internationally renowed investor and businessman, during his hour long speach, I was very surprised to note that, every bit of his business and investment philosophy had very strong touch of political ideology, and serves very clear purpose of promoting and defending the American way of value and order. That was the point when I started to look at things differently from different perspectives.

That is why I strongly believe that at the current level of human civilization, the world isnt built by "righteous powers" or even human "consciousness" but strength in the most boldest way. That is also why I am not very into how many $2 trillion provinces we are going to have, but the level of technologcial advancement, extent of cultural influences and diversity of our industry are the areas that I am very interested.

Give us another 20 years, we will deliver you a brand new China```天佑中华!
A famous Jew once said, " I do not care who makes the law of a Nation as long as I control the country's treasury ( banking and financial industries)"
China would be wise not to open this sector to foreigners.
 
.
A famous Jew once said, " I do not care who makes the law of a Nation as long as I control the country's treasury ( banking and financial industries)"
China would be wise not to open this sector to foreigners.
but it is a paradox, RMB wouldnt have a chance to become international currency if we chained ourself up, to become an international currency of settlement you have to venture into the "dragons den". Without this then there is going to be no demand of RMB internationally, then we cannot create a new world order that is in our favour
 
.
big 3+Henan. I think Henan will suppress Zhejiang in terms of total GDP in the next 5 years and will reach 2 trillion before Zhejiang. I think it may be hard for Zhejiang to reach 2 trillion anyway due to population size. Zhejiang have 55 million and Henan have 95 million so Henan will grow much faster. of course Zhejiang may very well have faster population increases over the next 15 years due to ample room and on the coasts so it will receive more internal migration so will have to see.
 
.
I'd go for big 3 + Zhejiang + Henan. Zhejiang for the reason that people are very commercial–minded. However, I do feel Henan has greater potential as it is strategically located in the center, which means goods and services can be shipped to most part of China within half day by HSR.
 
.
the biggest challenge to us is how to build a strong, efficient and defensive financial system that can deter American institutional funds that speculate on other country's financial volatility.

these kind of battles are mostly unknown to most people, but more lethal than a direct conflict. Economically, technologically and industrially weak countries are very vulnerable to American institutional funds. As they do not have any economical or industrial leverages to fight off those greedy predator's market making.

take the primitive country India for example, you would be surprised to find out that Indian Government has to spend nearly 26% of its annual budget to pay-off its foreign debt's interests alone, and mostly are Dollar debt. and the interests rate India is paying is amount the highest of all borrowers, which is well of 5% of interests rate.

One of the reasons are that India's daily activities are very much dependent on the supply of foreign goods, moneys and technologies. It has failed to develop a competitive industry to meet its internal demand, and to diversify its economy structure hence to embrace the robustness of the country's economy. They need billions of Dollars every month in order to pay for all of these imported goods (from the very basic like flags and toys to the sophisticated ones like capital appliances and data processing equipment), so this leaves them no option rather then keep buying and borrowing Dollars from the U.S.

But someone may ask how can the U.S is making money, when the obviose trade is done between countries, like say, a trading between India and China, or India and Germany? It is very simple, India needs to borrow or buy Dollars to pay-off Chinese or German goods, the U.S governmant or its institutional funds can simply earn the profit by manipulate the market to have a strong Dollar against weak Rupee in the case of buying, and it comes even more simpler when borrow is concerned, as India has to pay interests rate at lender's desired level.

Do you know why the West are very frustrated by the fact that the Central Bank of China pegged RMB's exchange rate to the Dollar, and at meantime still has some room to maneuver? anyone has an educated brain can work this out, as we China as the late comer and potential challenger to the existing world order, we need strong and smart ways to make sure we wont lose too much in dealing with them in such unfaverable world order. As China develops day by day, the "attacks" from international money funds are getting more and more frenzy. Because they know, if China has completed its planned industrial and technological transformation, there would be very little room left to the West to continue exploring the world in the order they have created by which defended with nasty and bloody wars.

Some people would laugh at me that no such things as international institutional fund attack can bring down a country or even weakening it, and it serves as national interests by doing that. Honestly I wouldnt believe this, and would think it is kind of movie plot, but I had started to think about that after attended one seminar by George Soros at LSE London 2004. As an internationally renowed investor and businessman, during his hour long speach, I was very surprised to note that, every bit of his business and investment philosophy had very strong touch of political ideology, and serves very clear purpose of promoting and defending the American way of value and order. That was the point when I started to look at things differently from different perspectives.

That is why I strongly believe that at the current level of human civilization, the world isnt built by "righteous powers" or even human "consciousness" but strength in the most boldest way. That is also why I am not very into how many $2 trillion provinces we are going to have, but the level of technologcial advancement, extent of cultural influences and diversity of our industry are the areas that I am very interested.

Give us another 20 years, we will deliver you a brand new China```天佑中华!
I appreciate your comment.
You are right about the dilemma in supapowa 2012, they really lack long-term division.

I hope these future 2-trillion-dollar provincial economies could play a vital part in the coming financial remaking.
Aren't you from Zhejiang?
I hope apart from strong financial policies on the national level, fintech companies from provinces like Zhejiang could also play an important role.

big 3+Henan. I think Henan will suppress Zhejiang in terms of total GDP in the next 5 years and will reach 2 trillion before Zhejiang. I think it may be hard for Zhejiang to reach 2 trillion anyway due to population size. Zhejiang have 55 million and Henan have 95 million so Henan will grow much faster. of course Zhejiang may very well have faster population increases over the next 15 years due to ample room and on the coasts so it will receive more internal migration so will have to see.
Big 3 are doubtless.
Whether the fourth is Henan or Zhejiang is debatable.
Maybe the timeframe won't be as early as 2025.
The advantages of Zhejiang are its location, commercial-minded people as @GeraltofRivia mentioned, stronger education, stronger R&D.

I do hope Henan would be the first.
Central China was neglected before 2010s, we need stronger economies and more talents who could stay here as opposed to migrating to Zhejiang or Shenzhen.
 
.
Is there a list on export specialty for each provinces? I know one Guangdong's hardware production.
 
.
I'd go for big 3 + Zhejiang + Henan. Zhejiang for the reason that people are very commercial–minded. However, I do feel Henan has greater potential as it is strategically located in the center, which means goods and services can be shipped to most part of China within half day by HSR.
In today's big shift of China's economy to high-tech industries and huge consumption, landlocked provinces are no longer geographically backward.

It's a privilege for us in Central China to travel to Beijing/Shanghai/Shenzhen within 4-5 hours by HSR. Zhengzhou in Henan Province, Wuhan in Hubei Province, Changsha in Hunan Province, are playing a pivotal role in this economic shift.

Zhengzhou East Station
Beijing-Wuhan-Guangzhou-HK HSR intersects with Silk Road HSR
400 bullet train services per day
屏幕快照 2016-11-12 17.37.50.jpg
 
.
I appreciate your comment.
You are right about the dilemma in supapowa 2012, they really lack long-term division.

I hope these future 2-trillion-dollar provincial economies could play a vital part in the coming financial remaking.
Aren't you from Zhejiang?
I hope apart from strong financial policies on the national level, fintech companies from provinces like Zhejiang could also play an important role.


Big 3 are doubtless.
Whether the fourth is Henan or Zhejiang is debatable.
Maybe the timeframe won't be as early as 2025.
The advantages of Zhejiang are its location, commercial-minded people as @GeraltofRivia mentioned, stronger education, stronger R&D.

I do hope Henan would be the first.
Central China was neglected before 2010s, we need stronger economies and more talents who could stay here as opposed to migrating to Zhejiang or Shenzhen.
I think Zhejiang has good potential, especially on IOT, E-commerce, big data and AI. As far as I know lots countries online-payment system is supported and powered by Alipay's technologies and engines```as far as I know PayTM and Flipkart is backed by Alipay's technological support. There are quite alot Chinese engineers stationed in India to supervise them
 
.
the biggest challenge to us is how to build a strong, efficient and defensive financial system that can deter American institutional funds that speculate on other country's financial volatility.

these kind of battles are mostly unknown to most people, but more lethal than a direct conflict. Economically, technologically and industrially weak countries are very vulnerable to American institutional funds. As they do not have any economical or industrial leverages to fight off those greedy predator's market making.

take the primitive country India for example, you would be surprised to find out that Indian Government has to spend nearly 26% of its annual budget to pay-off its foreign debt's interests alone, and mostly are Dollar debt. and the interests rate India is paying is amount the highest of all borrowers, which is well of 5% of interests rate.

One of the reasons are that India's daily activities are very much dependent on the supply of foreign goods, moneys and technologies. It has failed to develop a competitive industry to meet its internal demand, and to diversify its economy structure hence to embrace the robustness of the country's economy. They need billions of Dollars every month in order to pay for all of these imported goods (from the very basic like flags and toys to the sophisticated ones like capital appliances and data processing equipment), so this leaves them no option rather then keep buying and borrowing Dollars from the U.S.

But someone may ask how can the U.S is making money, when the obviose trade is done between countries, like say, a trading between India and China, or India and Germany? It is very simple, India needs to borrow or buy Dollars to pay-off Chinese or German goods, the U.S governmant or its institutional funds can simply earn the profit by manipulate the market to have a strong Dollar against weak Rupee in the case of buying, and it comes even more simpler when borrow is concerned, as India has to pay interests rate at lender's desired level.

Do you know why the West are very frustrated by the fact that the Central Bank of China pegged RMB's exchange rate to the Dollar, and at meantime still has some room to maneuver? anyone has an educated brain can work this out, as we China as the late comer and potential challenger to the existing world order, we need strong and smart ways to make sure we wont lose too much in dealing with them in such unfaverable world order. As China develops day by day, the "attacks" from international money funds are getting more and more frenzy. Because they know, if China has completed its planned industrial and technological transformation, there would be very little room left to the West to continue exploring the world in the order they have created by which defended with nasty and bloody wars.

Some people would laugh at me that no such things as international institutional fund attack can bring down a country or even weakening it, and it serves as national interests by doing that. Honestly I wouldnt believe this, and would think it is kind of movie plot, but I had started to think about that after attended one seminar by George Soros at LSE London 2004. As an internationally renowed investor and businessman, during his hour long speach, I was very surprised to note that, every bit of his business and investment philosophy had very strong touch of political ideology, and serves very clear purpose of promoting and defending the American way of value and order. That was the point when I started to look at things differently from different perspectives.

That is why I strongly believe that at the current level of human civilization, the world isnt built by "righteous powers" or even human "consciousness" but strength in the most boldest way. That is also why I am not very into how many $2 trillion provinces we are going to have, but the level of technologcial advancement, extent of cultural influences and diversity of our industry are the areas that I am very interested.

Give us another 20 years, we will deliver you a brand new China```天佑中华!

A definitely think tank level analysis, I appreciate every line as I read.

I think, among others, your observation in the final paragraph regarding China moving up in value chain as a whole is very well put.

I think this is also the whole meaning of the new normal concept. What Mainland China is going through economically at the moment is therefore monumental, majestic, extremely significant.

It is also not surprising then that it is also the time various hegemonic forces have increased their plots and pressures on China, from Obama-led Pivot to UK ' warship dispatch.

The hegemonic forces have tolerated China becoming a world work floor but they definitely are going berserk at the sight of China's economic transition.

This also explains the illogical behavior of various neighbors of China and China's over-caution. I see a warless East Asia at least by 2020 as a prerequisite to speedily complete China's transition.

It is not that a regional war would stop entirely the transition of China's economy, but it might slow down.
 
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I think Zhejiang has good potential, especially on IOT, E-commerce, big data and AI. As far as I know lots countries online-payment system is supported and powered by Alipay's technologies and engines```as far as I know PayTM and Flipkart is backed by Alipay's technological support. There are quite alot Chinese engineers stationed in India to supervise them
Chinese companies are indeed fast growing not just at the home market but lots of developing countries.
I have never heard of PayTm and Flipkart, similar to Alipay?

Is there a list on export specialty for each provinces? I know one Guangdong's hardware production.
It's very hard to define export specialty.
Every province mentioned has a very broad spectrum of production and export.
 
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It's very hard to define export specialty.
Every province mentioned has a very broad spectrum of production and export.
the long industry valuechain makes the so-called province level export specialty hard to be defined or counted. For example, a city bus export from Henan province, its engine maybe supplied from Shandong, transmission from Shaanxi, steel for body building from Hebei, tire from Zhejiang, etc.
 
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the long industry valuechain makes the so-called province level export specialty hard to be defined or counted. For example, a city bus export from Henan province, its engine maybe supplied from Shandong, transmission from Shaanxi, steel for body building from Hebei, tire from Zhejiang, etc.
Yes!

$2999 Inspire2, supported by suppliers in numerous provinces

02f3b5909898fa24ed2e23bb19d50c58.jpg

 
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