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Can nuclear weapons make the DPRK a strong power?
By Ren Niandong
China.org.cn, September 14, 2016
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted another nuclear test on Sept. 9.
Apparently, Kim Jong Un has moved one step closer to possessing nuclear weapons, long an obsession for the country in its belief that nuclear weapons are a possible bargaining chip in talks with the United States.
Yet, is this realistic?
To deter the United States located thousands of kilometers away, the DPRK must have an effective warhead delivery system, which generally takes three forms -- strategic bombers, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The country's most advanced fighter jet is the Mikoyan MiG-29, which first entered service with the Soviet Air Force in 1982. It's impossible for the DPRK to threaten the United States with such an aircraft, and it seems Pyongyang has no intention of developing new ones.
At sea, the DPRK's delivery system is very likely to evolve from the outdated Vympel R-27 missile system, obtained from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Taken into account the existing Pukguksong ballistic missile cannot travel beyond 1,500 kilometers, it's impossible for the DPRK to pose a threat to the United States from the sea unless it can develop large conventional submarines or nuclear submarines. But this is no easier than developing a modern air force.
However, things seemed to be going well on land. The DPRK recently launched the Hwasong-10 intermediate-range ballistic missile with a range of 2,500 kilometers. Earlier, it launched the Unha-3 long-range rocket. If Pyongyang uses these together to launch a nuclear warhead, it may extend its reach to 6,000 kilometers or more. This will take it close to the U.S. mainland.
Thus, on paper, it seems Pyongyang will soon possess reliable land-based nuclear weapons, becoming a strong power able to pose a direct threat to the United States.
But is that true? How much further has Pyongyang to go before realizing its dream?
We need, first, to look back at what other countries have done to possess nuclear weapons.
First, they had to conduct repeated tests. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council all possess nuclear weapons, having spent decades on nuclear tests. The United States conducted nearly 1,100 tests. By comparison, China and the U.K. have only conducted more than 40 tests.
Putting aside hydrogen bombs and other thermonuclear warheads, which are superior and more demanding, a country has to conduct at least 10 tests to develop an atomic bomb. However, every time the DPRK has conducted a nuclear test, it has faced pressure from international society and been subjected to more sanctions. How long can this last?
Regarding test sites, the five countries all chose to establish them in remote, uninhabited areas. For example, the United States focused on the Nevada desert and China tested in the Gobi Desert. The Soviet Union, occupying the largest territory in the world, built five nuclear test bases. The U.K. and France being smaller, chose their colonies to conduct nuclear tests. The U.K. tested its nuclear warheads 12 times in Australia, and France more than 200 times in Algeria and the South Pacific.
What can the DPRK do?
Even if Pyongyang manages to develop a nuclear warhead, it has to test it to see if it really works. However, this is a tough task for the small country. To be frank, it's even tougher than finding a test site. When Pyongyang tested the Hwasong-10 missile, which aimed for a landing 400 kilometers away, it couldn't find a safe passage in its own territory, so the missile was shot into the Sea of Japan.
If Pyongyang dares to do the same with a nuclear warhead, it will be deemed as declaring war and being the first to use nuclear weapons in that conflict. The world will react immediately and a multinational force will surely be established for a counterattack.
So, here is the dilemma for Pyongyang. If it chooses to test its nuclear missile, it will end up badly; if it chooses not to do this, then it will never know if its nuclear missile is workable.
It's true that all strong powers possess nuclear missiles. The DPRK has been dying to join them, but it seems its decision-makers have made the wrong deduction: A country has to be strong first and then move on to possess nuclear missiles. It's not by possessing nuclear missiles that they are recognized as a strong power.
The DPRK is on the brink of a disaster. If its decision-makers can't correctly understand the country's position in the world, its future is worrisome.
Ren Niandong is a military and political observer.
By Ren Niandong
China.org.cn, September 14, 2016
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted another nuclear test on Sept. 9.
Apparently, Kim Jong Un has moved one step closer to possessing nuclear weapons, long an obsession for the country in its belief that nuclear weapons are a possible bargaining chip in talks with the United States.
Yet, is this realistic?
To deter the United States located thousands of kilometers away, the DPRK must have an effective warhead delivery system, which generally takes three forms -- strategic bombers, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The country's most advanced fighter jet is the Mikoyan MiG-29, which first entered service with the Soviet Air Force in 1982. It's impossible for the DPRK to threaten the United States with such an aircraft, and it seems Pyongyang has no intention of developing new ones.
At sea, the DPRK's delivery system is very likely to evolve from the outdated Vympel R-27 missile system, obtained from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Taken into account the existing Pukguksong ballistic missile cannot travel beyond 1,500 kilometers, it's impossible for the DPRK to pose a threat to the United States from the sea unless it can develop large conventional submarines or nuclear submarines. But this is no easier than developing a modern air force.
However, things seemed to be going well on land. The DPRK recently launched the Hwasong-10 intermediate-range ballistic missile with a range of 2,500 kilometers. Earlier, it launched the Unha-3 long-range rocket. If Pyongyang uses these together to launch a nuclear warhead, it may extend its reach to 6,000 kilometers or more. This will take it close to the U.S. mainland.
Thus, on paper, it seems Pyongyang will soon possess reliable land-based nuclear weapons, becoming a strong power able to pose a direct threat to the United States.
But is that true? How much further has Pyongyang to go before realizing its dream?
We need, first, to look back at what other countries have done to possess nuclear weapons.
First, they had to conduct repeated tests. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council all possess nuclear weapons, having spent decades on nuclear tests. The United States conducted nearly 1,100 tests. By comparison, China and the U.K. have only conducted more than 40 tests.
Putting aside hydrogen bombs and other thermonuclear warheads, which are superior and more demanding, a country has to conduct at least 10 tests to develop an atomic bomb. However, every time the DPRK has conducted a nuclear test, it has faced pressure from international society and been subjected to more sanctions. How long can this last?
Regarding test sites, the five countries all chose to establish them in remote, uninhabited areas. For example, the United States focused on the Nevada desert and China tested in the Gobi Desert. The Soviet Union, occupying the largest territory in the world, built five nuclear test bases. The U.K. and France being smaller, chose their colonies to conduct nuclear tests. The U.K. tested its nuclear warheads 12 times in Australia, and France more than 200 times in Algeria and the South Pacific.
What can the DPRK do?
Even if Pyongyang manages to develop a nuclear warhead, it has to test it to see if it really works. However, this is a tough task for the small country. To be frank, it's even tougher than finding a test site. When Pyongyang tested the Hwasong-10 missile, which aimed for a landing 400 kilometers away, it couldn't find a safe passage in its own territory, so the missile was shot into the Sea of Japan.
If Pyongyang dares to do the same with a nuclear warhead, it will be deemed as declaring war and being the first to use nuclear weapons in that conflict. The world will react immediately and a multinational force will surely be established for a counterattack.
So, here is the dilemma for Pyongyang. If it chooses to test its nuclear missile, it will end up badly; if it chooses not to do this, then it will never know if its nuclear missile is workable.
It's true that all strong powers possess nuclear missiles. The DPRK has been dying to join them, but it seems its decision-makers have made the wrong deduction: A country has to be strong first and then move on to possess nuclear missiles. It's not by possessing nuclear missiles that they are recognized as a strong power.
The DPRK is on the brink of a disaster. If its decision-makers can't correctly understand the country's position in the world, its future is worrisome.
Ren Niandong is a military and political observer.
