If the doctrine of Indian defence could have stated that
- By year 2040 we require
- 60 squadron in IAF
- 20 sqd in IN
- Then assuming light category to be 33% IAF and 25% in IN, we get
- 20 squadrons IAF
- 5 squadrons IN
- In a rough estimate 20x20 = 400 and 5x15 =75 or total 475 jets for light category.
If IInstead of eextrapolation, assume a downsize view of 45 sqds in IAF and 10 squads in IN by say 2025-27 then light category is
- 15 squads in IAF or 15x20 = 300 jets
- 2.5 squads for IN or 2.5x15 = 38 jets (close to 40)
Now when you get such clarity then its clear that in a decade we need 340 odd jets of light category with almost 34 jets a year
This is where if LCA production becomes vital
- If LCA prod is 16 jets a year balance becomes 18 jets which both F16 and Gripen E wishes to share at 10 jets a year minimum or single maker at 18 jets a year
- If LCA production is 24 jets a year the balance becomes only one suitor either Gripen or F16 at 10 jets a year.
Logic says better try and hike LCA to minimum 16+8 + a new line of 16 making it 40 jets a year production rate using ppl whom we involve in MII.
IInpresent case when LCA prod is 16 per year any foreign maker gets a bigger pie and in later 24 per year the cost of investments and timeframe will drive up the perjet cost inspite of localisation. Of course capability absorption in a short time is a big question mark for our MIC.
I sincerely feel it's time to officially give one production line to L&T for LCA and make HAL and L&T push up the production rate to 24+16 format and take forward the LCA.
For others we can discuss in separate thread ( FGFA, Rafale,AMCA etc)
