illusion8
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Radical elements in Pakistan are planning to take over the country . An urgent appeal is sent to India. Several tense days later, the army restores the legitimate government. The Indians fly back. At the UN Security Council, India sponsors a resolution imposing sanctions on the top four terror groups in Pakistan. Neither China nor Pakistan object. It feels natural for Islamabad to call New Delhi, and for India to respond.
Fiction? In 2012, yes. But by the end of this decade, India's foreign policy regarding Pakistan could have undergone a massive change if current trends persist. Pakistan's terror project is well on its way to becoming a Frankenstein's monster, and its not unimaginable that it could turn on its creator. The army is weakened. So is the economy. There are insurgencies in many parts of Pakistan, and after 2014, when the US leaves Afghanistan, these could become more deadly. And that's where India's role will be important.
By 2020, it should have completed its primary foreign policy target - being a peaceful neighbour which helps other South Asian countries come out of the Saarc and integrate themselves into a more loosely defined entity. They would hitch their wagons to the Indian economy in such a way that they retain control of their destinies but become a part of India's globalization agenda. A difficult call for many countries, but a foreseeable vision.
By the end of this decade, India, at its present growth rate, should also expect to get a seat in the Security Council and have chaired the IMF or the World Bank at least once. But what will be India's foreign policy priorities by 2020? China will remain its primary challenge. How both manage their economies and globalization projects will determine how the power equations stack up. India should break through its inertia on infrastructure development and achieve the necessary breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing, innovation and skills. India is poised to overtake China demographically by 2025, but the way it handles the thorny issues of education and skills development will determine whether it remains on top.
China will be an ageing nation, as will Japan, Russia and Europe. So the real game of technology and innovation will be played between India and the US. To a great extent, this will be the driver for India's foreign policy - how it uses a skilled population to push into new markets. The threat from China is another one. It will use a weakened Pakistan to play spoiler with India. India's foreign policy priority will be to neutralize one of them.
Indo-US ties will only get deeper, making Atal Bihari Vajpayee's coinage of "natural allies" a reality.
The quest for natural resources will dominate a major part of foreign policy as India pushes into countries further afield to secure sources of energy, food, metals and minerals. India's outreach into Africa and Central Asia will deepen. By 2020, India , which is presently ramping up its navy, will have to take a leading role in securing the sea lanes from piracy, both in the Indian Ocean and further east towards the Straits of Malacca. India has set up a core group with Maldives and Sri Lanka, but will soon incorporate countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Seychelles, Mauritius and Oman.
If the US-Iran confrontation does not become a conflagration, Indian foreign policy will have to incorporate two new elements. Hitherto, the US has been the guarantor of security in the Middle East, based on its oil demands. That demand has peaked. Simultaneously, US and Canada have hugely increased oil production, reducing dependence on the Middle East. India, which will be dependent on this region for many years, will have to add more tools to its foreign policy kit to deal with it.
India will have to deal with political Islam in the Middle East without sacrificing its secular credentials. As country after country from Tunisia to Egypt, overthrows old regimes and vote in Islamists, India will have to tread carefully, especially with 6m Indians working there.
India can be a global power by 2020, with policy imperatives very different from what they are today. Its greatest challenge is that its foreign policy establishment is a global pigmy, with a growth rate that can only provide service of value to a country with minimal ambitions. It has to mind that gap.
Republic Day: Buck up if you want to be a global power - The Times of India
Fiction? In 2012, yes. But by the end of this decade, India's foreign policy regarding Pakistan could have undergone a massive change if current trends persist. Pakistan's terror project is well on its way to becoming a Frankenstein's monster, and its not unimaginable that it could turn on its creator. The army is weakened. So is the economy. There are insurgencies in many parts of Pakistan, and after 2014, when the US leaves Afghanistan, these could become more deadly. And that's where India's role will be important.
By 2020, it should have completed its primary foreign policy target - being a peaceful neighbour which helps other South Asian countries come out of the Saarc and integrate themselves into a more loosely defined entity. They would hitch their wagons to the Indian economy in such a way that they retain control of their destinies but become a part of India's globalization agenda. A difficult call for many countries, but a foreseeable vision.
By the end of this decade, India, at its present growth rate, should also expect to get a seat in the Security Council and have chaired the IMF or the World Bank at least once. But what will be India's foreign policy priorities by 2020? China will remain its primary challenge. How both manage their economies and globalization projects will determine how the power equations stack up. India should break through its inertia on infrastructure development and achieve the necessary breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing, innovation and skills. India is poised to overtake China demographically by 2025, but the way it handles the thorny issues of education and skills development will determine whether it remains on top.
China will be an ageing nation, as will Japan, Russia and Europe. So the real game of technology and innovation will be played between India and the US. To a great extent, this will be the driver for India's foreign policy - how it uses a skilled population to push into new markets. The threat from China is another one. It will use a weakened Pakistan to play spoiler with India. India's foreign policy priority will be to neutralize one of them.
Indo-US ties will only get deeper, making Atal Bihari Vajpayee's coinage of "natural allies" a reality.
The quest for natural resources will dominate a major part of foreign policy as India pushes into countries further afield to secure sources of energy, food, metals and minerals. India's outreach into Africa and Central Asia will deepen. By 2020, India , which is presently ramping up its navy, will have to take a leading role in securing the sea lanes from piracy, both in the Indian Ocean and further east towards the Straits of Malacca. India has set up a core group with Maldives and Sri Lanka, but will soon incorporate countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Seychelles, Mauritius and Oman.
If the US-Iran confrontation does not become a conflagration, Indian foreign policy will have to incorporate two new elements. Hitherto, the US has been the guarantor of security in the Middle East, based on its oil demands. That demand has peaked. Simultaneously, US and Canada have hugely increased oil production, reducing dependence on the Middle East. India, which will be dependent on this region for many years, will have to add more tools to its foreign policy kit to deal with it.
India will have to deal with political Islam in the Middle East without sacrificing its secular credentials. As country after country from Tunisia to Egypt, overthrows old regimes and vote in Islamists, India will have to tread carefully, especially with 6m Indians working there.
India can be a global power by 2020, with policy imperatives very different from what they are today. Its greatest challenge is that its foreign policy establishment is a global pigmy, with a growth rate that can only provide service of value to a country with minimal ambitions. It has to mind that gap.
Republic Day: Buck up if you want to be a global power - The Times of India
