Let me post an analysis by BRASSTACKS Think Thank on the same point as you pointed out
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Benazir assasination, as expected is claimed by Al-Qaeda. Dspite the fact that CNN has released a letter from her which accused President Musharraf to plot her assassination, no serious analyst or even the Americans have bought this theory as the signatures are too strong to point towards Zawihiri / Osama backed tribal militants of local origin. CNN has almost removed that hypothesis from their discussion now.
Imran Khan is not blaming AQ or Taliban. He is indirectly blaming Musharraf.
Everything points to terrorists, call them by any name.
Even BBC is now putting the partial blame for her death on western governments and western leaders for pushing her into Pakistan despite the risks she faced from Al-Qaeda. The blame for her death is falling on Al-Qaeda and also on western governments for pushing her too fast in very dangerous turf where religious radicals had already vowed to kill her upon her arrival. Baitullah Mehsud and many similar militants had vowed to meet her at the airport with his suicide bombers. Even within Pakistan, no one seems to be buying the theory that Musharraf government got her killed. The media is in fact totally silent over the possible lists of suspects despite the fact that Al-Qaeda claim is being flashed on screen.
If elections are to be held and there is so much at stake since NS is no pushover, what was she expected to do?
Organise her campaign by remote control?
Any leader in such circumstances where the situation is very nebulous and is interested in winning power, would have to have a finger on the pulse and lead from the front.
If she lost the election through remote control, she would then become a 'has been'. Dangerous for those who make politics their career!
In a knee jerk reaction, Nawaz Shareef has now announced boycott of elections after assassination of BB. This throws the entire election process into a tail spin as he also announces launch of a protest movement against President Musharraf till he is ousted. NS says "saving Pakistan is more important than elections" basically signaling that he is going to launch a civil disobedience movement after 3 days of mourning. The government minister says elections will be held on time as schedule. Americans are also supportive of the election process so far.
Rhetoric apart, who can now dare address election rally with suicide bombers lurking in the wings. Even NS' rally was attacked!
Civil disturbance is an easy way out, where personal danger is not there and yet a statement can be made.
American requirements from afar may not be what moves Pakistani politicians. or do they?
But the question is whether he can or he cannot muster enough street power to create a crisis for President Musharraf ?. PPP is now decapitated and stunned at the developments. their thinking capacity is seriously impaired right now. NS is counting on PPP's angry voters to side with him as force multiplier but this would not be an easy task for him. in fact, it is going to be a risky gamble.
That depends on the Pakistani population's perceptions crossing party lines.
Depends on how the Pakistanis perceive the assassination.
He has seriously miscalculated many times in the recent past and another miscalculation can land him in jail or in exile once again. In our assessment, he is overplaying his cards and his dependence upon JI, Imran Khan, PPP and some sub-nationalist groups is going to create chaos but not the desired results that he wants.
Who knows?
It is all upto the Pakistani public's anger or otherwise.
Think tanks can only speculate thinking.
Worst case for the government, he will invite chaos, lawlessness and then Martial law and cancellation of elections. Best case for the government, he will be arrested and exiled and not able to generate mass civil disobedience movement. Right now, the NS and PPP camp do not have enough understanding, strategy or the willing manpower to launch a massive street movement together. Their voters or support base were gearing up for elections not jails or tear gasses. The mental shift would be more difficult than the policy shift which their leadership has now taken.
To be seen.
Too early to predict.
Fanatics like the suicide bombers are capable of anything. Depends on the fanatical maze that some go through!
So, as PPP workers are on a rampage all over the country especially in Karachi and Sindh, Nawaz Shareef is trying to increase pressure on the government and working to create a larger opposition block. Next 3 days would decide a lot as to how things shape up. So far the government has not offered any serious resistance to the rioting crowds but sooner or later things will have to be brought under control even if that means bringing in para military or even the army depending how things shape up. There are signs that this is now going to happen and rioting will be controlled.
Govt is playing it cool and assessing the options.
A right move to calm down emotions.
A very harsh action now will only steel the resolve of the Opposition with dire consequences.
A wise move.
We do not see any major security meltdown for the government if they handle the rioting and also handle the media and perception war well. So far, this is the weakest link in the governments plan. There is no media plan, no coordination, no strategy and no spokesperson handling the crisis. This would be serious blunder and could escalate the situation.
Media and journalists will make merry with the woes of the people as they always do.
It is their bread and butter and the way to keep the fires burning in their hearth and homes!
They are like vultures!
No need to panic. It is a manageable situation and the government is slowly getting the grips of it. Next couple of days woud clarify everything but we see things towards improvement for the time being as internaitonal pressure is almost negligible on the government and local situaiton is being tackled now.
Hopefully.