In order to threaten mainland US targets the Jin would have to make it past the formidable submarine tracking assets of US forces in the region (we can speculate bases in Guam, the tip of Alaska and Hawaii) and other ‘western’ allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan. In essence the Chinese naval bases are every bit as ‘encircled’ by Western forces as the Soviets were, however unlike the Russians they cannot escape under the ice of the North Pole. China’s natural “bastion” is the Bohai Gulf to the west of Dalian, where we can reason that Chinese subs are relatively safe, but this does not offer the range advantage inherent of ocean-going submarine operations.
Perhaps a more likely operational patrol might be sailing south into the deep water of the South China Sea, or carefully sneaking into the Gulf of Thailand or Java Sea to target India from another less predictable angle, perhaps circumventing India’s growing anti-ballistic missile defences. There are reports of Type-094 SSBNs porting at the new submarine base on Hainan in southern China which lends itself to this latter scenario.
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3. Submarines
As well as the modest force of SSBNs described above, PLAN has a relatively large and increasingly modern submarine fleet of both nuclear and conventional attack boats. These are of both Chinese and Russian designs and all could be modified to carry land attack cruise missiles, which China almost certainly has the technology for, if desired. Since around 2000 China has built several new submarine bases to accommodate the enhanced fleet.
3.1 Nuclear Attack Submarines (SSN)
5 x Type-091 ‘Han’ Class
2 + (est 5) x Type-093 ‘Shang’ class
The primary SSNs of the PLAN are the Type-093 Shang Class boats. These are generally thought to be equivalent of early Los Angeles class American SSNs and pose a serious threat to even the most modern adversary, especially with recent years of neglect in ASW circles. The PLAN has been using its submarines more aggressively, or rather more confidently, lately with high-profile incidents such as trailing US carrier battle groups. In this game, the Shang’s are China’s most potent submarines. Specifications and armament are not known but probably includes supercavitating torpedoes(Russian VA-111 Shkval-E) and anti-ship missiles, and possibly land attack cruise missiles. All torpedo tubes are mounted in the bow.
The Shangs are supported by 4 aging Han class. These were China’s first generation SSNs and share much in common with the Type-092 Xia class SSBN. A 5th Han has been retired as the newer Shangs join the line. The Hans are 1970s designs but remain a credible threat and satellite imagery confirms at least one boat undergoing refit recently which may include unknown upgrades.