Bangladesh economy may overtake western countries by 2050

[UKBengali]

Its not too far. 40 year a lot of us will live to see that.

BD Population will max out 22-25 crore and then start declining after 2030.

My personal opinion is that BD will be in the top 20 economies of the world by 2050 but there are too many unknown variables to consider like war, food/energy supplies and general geopolitics.

One of the big hurdles that BD needs to tackle if it is to become anything other than a middle income country is a virtual
lack of a technological base currently. Things like garments and low-end manufacturing just won't cut it to propel the economy to a high-end GDP/capita level.

Without developing it's own advanced technology, BD's growth will probably stagnate after around 2030 as by then it would have plateau'd in terms of agricultural and low/mid end manufacturing growth.

I am optimistic but things may not turn out the way that we would like.

 

[UKBengali]

duplicated post deleted

 

[Skull and Bones]

By 2060-5 for sure... by 2050 Nigeria, Turkey, Mexico and Indonesia will all overtake them and Vietnam will reach 70% of UK. All the 3 countries will go into gradual declining in this century.

Given the same economic conditions prevails for the next 40 years, which seems pretty unlikely.

Before the 1991 Asian economic crisis, these same agencies predicted Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia will be bigger economies than UK or France by 2025. And that recession washed away all their previous economic credentials.

Bangladesh isn't a mineral resources rich nation, nor does have any concrete industrial base, nor does have a strong service industry. So in what way Bangladesh is going to topple these Western Biggies? By fishing and building crap warships?

 

[UKBengali]

duplicated post deleted

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

and pakistans econiomy may take over the world by 3150

It is only possible if Pakistan can check the radicals, invest more on education not just 470 million usd as it is investing now, focus more on R&D and most importantly give woman more right and give them the freedom to study and work freely. Otherwise best of luck.

 

[Skull and Bones]

By 2060-5 for sure... by 2050 Nigeria, Turkey, Mexico and Indonesia will all overtake them and Vietnam will reach 70% of UK. All the 3 countries will go into gradual declining in this century.

Given the same economic conditions prevails for the next 40 years, which seems pretty unlikely.

Before the 1991 Asian economic crisis, these same agencies predicted Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia will be bigger economies than UK or France by 2025. And that recession washed away all their previous economic credentials.

Bangladesh isn't a mineral resources rich nation, nor does have any concrete industrial base, nor does have a strong service industry. So in what way Bangladesh is going to topple these Western Biggies? By fishing and building crap warships?

 

[arp2041]

Yes I think before I write. India is way lagged behind Bangladesh in social development and it will have an affect in the coming decades. By the way India's GDP growth is already slowing down. Even though Bangladesh is planning to upgrade it's base year to 2005 which will raise the GDP and per capita GDP substantially but with GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) there is not a big difference between Bangladesh and Pak & India even using the 95 base year. As of 2011 with GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) are 589 usd, 672 usd and 837 usd.

Go check different sub category of HDI of these 3 countries...

Firstly, i didn't talk about social indicators, since i know whenever it comes to India & BD comparison, u only have this rhetoric & i have heard this here atleast 1000 times if not less.

Secondly, i m not at all talking about GDP (PPP) since India already is 3rd largest economy in terms of that, i m talking about GDP(nominal) per capita, & these are the figures for SA nations in US $$$$:

Maldives 5,892
Sri Lanka 2,880
Bhutan 2,053
India 1,514
Pakistan 1,199
Bangladesh 767

Now, BD is the last ranked in terms of GDP(nominal) per capita, even if i believe that somehow u crosses Indian GDP per capita, how will u cross the SL & Maldivian GDP per capita which are nearly thrice & eight times of BD resp. to become the largest in SA??

+ India already uses the base year as 2004-05 for all economic calculations & Indian economy is not slowing down, this is a global phenomenon & current economic growth rate will be close to 6% & it will be only 1-2 more fiscal years before Indian economy can again rise to 7-8% mark, this is not i but even the IMF & WB are saying:

India's growth is slowing and inflation is high

GDP Growth Forecast

2012: 6.4%
2013: 6.9%
2014: 7.1%
2015: 7.3%

This is what will happen to the global economy for the next three years | GlobalPost

I don't know what MAGIC will the change of base year do to BD economy that all of a sudden it will be the largest in terms of per capita in SA, if that was the case every nation would have changed the base year rather than thinking of real development.

 

[TopCat]

Yes in some modern family where both husband and wife are in service. But still 2 children is the norm.

A lot of girls just dont want even a single. LOL

 

[Skallagrim]

Is it going to be the thread of the day??

 

[TopCat]

Firstly, i didn't talk about social indicators, since i know whenever it comes to India & BD comparison, u only have this rhetoric & i have heard this here atleast 1000 times if not less.

Secondly, i m not at all talking about GDP (PPP) since India already is 3rd largest economy in terms of that, i m talking about GDP(nominal) per capita, & these are the figures for SA nations in US $$$$:

Maldives 5,892
Sri Lanka 2,880
Bhutan 2,053
India 1,514
Pakistan 1,199
Bangladesh 767

Now, BD is the last ranked in terms of GDP(nominal) per capita, even if i believe that somehow u crosses Indian GDP per capita, how will u cross the SL & Maldivian GDP per capita which are nearly thrice & eight times of BD resp. to become the largest in SA??

+ India already uses the base year as 2004-05 for all economic calculations & Indian economy is not slowing down, this is a global phenomenon & current economic growth rate will be close to 6% & it will be only 1-2 more fiscal years before Indian economy can again rise to 7-8% mark, this is not i but even the IMF & WB are saying:



This is what will happen to the global economy for the next three years | GlobalPost

I don't know what MAGIC will the change of base year do to BD economy that all of a sudden it will be the largest in terms of per capita in SA, if that was the case every nation would have changed the base year rather than thinking of real development.

Everybody overlooked that BD economy is domestic investment driven unlike India where the extra bit of boost came from FDI. So yes BD has plenty of room to manipulate.

 

[TopCat]

Given the same economic conditions prevails for the next 40 years, which seems pretty unlikely.

Before the 1991 Asian economic crisis, these same agencies predicted Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia will be bigger economies than UK or France by 2025. And that recession washed away all their previous economic credentials.

Bangladesh isn't a mineral resources rich nation, nor does have any concrete industrial base, nor does have a strong service industry. So in what way Bangladesh is going to topple these Western Biggies? By fishing and building crap warships?

Bangladesh growing in decent pace without mineral resources. Why do you think we need that when we can do without it??
Malaysia/Indonesia fell due to excessive dependency on FDI which is no more the case. BD is growing by itself.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Bangladesh growing in decent pace without mineral resources. Why do you think we need that when we can do without it??
Malaysia/Indonesia fell due to excessive dependency on FDI which is no more the case. BD is growing by itself.

Growing in which sectors can you please tell me? It's in Textiles, apparels manufacturing, food processing industries.

Though these industries are self sustaining and provides decent employment rate, but without strong manufacturing industries, there won't be any major growth dash in Bangladesh.

Japan, South Korea also has dearth of raw materials, but that didn't stopped them from becoming one of the most industrialized nation on earth.

 

[acid rain]

Predictions of 2030 - 40 - 50 boils down to how much of natural resources are left on the planet for other countries to utilize by the 2.6 billion population of China and India and the other countries of BRICS, going by the energy consumption of the US which is the largest I can estimate that both China and India will almost dry up the world of any natural resources in the coming decades.

 

[arp2041]

Bangladesh growing in decent pace without mineral resources. Why do you think we need that when we can do without it??
Malaysia/Indonesia fell due to excessive dependency on FDI which is no more the case. BD is growing by itself.

Sir, If a nation wants to sustain it's growth over a long period of time than it has to do well in atleast one of the following 3 large categories - Agriculture, Manufacturing or Services. China is the fastest growing economy for so long b'coz of it's massive Manufacturing sector which nearly accounts for half of it's GDP, India is the second fastest b'coz of it's service sector & the slowdown which it is currently experiencing is b'coz of it's low output from manufacturing sector. Scaling 7-8% over few years by a nation is no big deal, for sustained growth over a period of 2-3 decades a nation has to build it's capabilities, yes BD is growing without resources etc., but believe me it will not sustain for long.

 

[TopCat]

Predictions of 2030 - 40 - 50 boils down to how much of natural resources are left on the planet for other countries to utilize by the 2.6 billion population of China and India and the other countries of BRICS, going by the energy consumption of the US which is the largest I can estimate that both China and India will almost dry up the world of any natural resources in the coming decades.

USA will be energy surplus country by 2035. Dont worry about it. By 2050 most car will be driven by hydrogen fuel cell.