Bangladesh economy may overtake western countries by 2050

[Markus]

Sometime back mods told me they are too busy to allow a thread discussing India of 2030.

But here, they seem to have the time to allow a thread to discuss Bangladesh of 2050.

Cool.

 

[TopCat]

Sir, If a nation wants to sustain it's growth over a long period of time than it has to do well in atleast one of the following 3 large categories - Agriculture, Manufacturing or Services. China is the fastest growing economy for so long b'coz of it's massive Manufacturing sector which nearly accounts for half of it's GDP, India is the second fastest b'coz of it's service sector & the slowdown which it is currently experiencing is b'coz of it's low output from manufacturing sector. Scaling 7-8% over few years by a nation is no big deal, for sustained growth over a period of 2-3 decades a nation has to build it's capabilities, yes BD is growing without resources etc., but believe me it will not sustain for long.

Did not get your point. You are saying a country need Agri and Mfg and Service to sustain its growth. So where the growth of BD came from??? From thin air?
Mfg consists 30% of our GDP. We are self sustained in Agro and increased production 3 fold for the last 3 decades.
We export mostly textile does not mean we dont produce others. We produce almost everything for our internal need except autommobile.

 

[acid rain]

USA will be energy surplus country by 2035. Dont worry about it. By 2050 most car will be driven by hydrogen fuel cell.

The world's worrying about it, so don't know why I shouldn't worry too... you obviously did not get my point about the US energy consumption rate compared to their population - and about alternative energy sources - they have too many drawbacks and not enough to fuel the world or the projected growth figures of 2050's/ 60's of world economies etc...let's wait and watch what happens in the next 10 years time...presently its a race between China and India to secure maximum energy and fuel sources - what is the reason for China to claim SCS if not of the oil?? or India's various exploration ventures?.

 

[arp2041]

Did not get your point. You are saying a country need Agri and Mfg and Service to sustain its growth. So where the growth of BD came from??? From thin air?
Mfg consists 30% of our GDP. We are self sustained in Agro and increased production 3 fold for the last 3 decades.
We export mostly textile does not mean we dont produce others. We produce almost everything for our internal need except autommobile.

i think u didn't got my point, ofcourse BD economic growth is coming from the 3 sectors, but what i meant to say was that to sustain growth over a longer period of time a country has to make atleast one of the 3 sector strong enough to sustain growth over a time like the case is for SERVICES for India & MANUFACTURING for China which is responsible for there sustained growth.

Textiles account for 70-80% of it's export, now u don't have to be an economist to figure that 70-80% dependence of export on just a single product means the economy is anything but developed or in the path of being called developed for any time soon.

 

[TopCat]

i think u didn't got my point, ofcourse BD economic growth is coming from the 3 sectors, but what i meant to say was that to sustain growth over a longer period of time a country has to make atleast one of the 3 sector strong enough to sustain growth over a time like the case is for SERVICES for India & MANUFACTURING for China which is responsible for there sustained growth.

Textiles account for 70-80% of it's export, now u don't have to be an economist to figure that 70-80% dependence of export on just a single product means the economy is anything but developed or in the path of being called developed for any time soon.

Dont bring India in it as I dont want to open a chapter on the quality of Indian service sector.

A country just cant start producing microprocessor from day one. You need building block to build it from ground up.

The very first thing a country need to create primary capital. Without capital you cant invest in high end manufacturing unless ofcourse govt want to take part in it (eg. India) which is not sustainable. 2nd most important thing is to create enough employment to bring rural and semi rural work force to main stream economy which will ultimately teach your citizen to be civilized and start using toilet instead of running around by the river bank.

WE are at this primary stage of the economy. As there are already a vibrant enterpreneur class developed they are exploring other sectors like toys electronics, automobiles etc. It will not take much when you will see our electronics and automobiles will also roam around the world. We already export home appliances, motor cycle, steel glass ceramics etc.

 

[danger007]

So many predicted 2012 December 21 will be our DOOMS day... but it become thusssssssssssssssssss.... another 2050... my god..

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Given the same economic conditions prevails for the next 40 years, which seems pretty unlikely.

Before the 1991 Asian economic crisis, these same agencies predicted Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia will be bigger economies than UK or France by 2025. And that recession washed away all their previous economic credentials.

Bangladesh isn't a mineral resources rich nation, nor does have any concrete industrial base, nor does have a strong service industry. So in what way Bangladesh is going to topple these Western Biggies? By fishing and building crap warships?

It has always assumed there are plenty of natural gas and oil reserve in the Bay of Bengal but it is a different case.

Declining and aging population, slowing down economy vs. Young and vibrant population and higher economic growth will help Bangladesh to achieve that.

 

[Skull and Bones]

It has always assumed there are plenty of natural gas and oil reserve in the Bay of Bengal but it is a different case.

Declining and aging population, slowing down economy vs. Young and vibrant population and higher economic growth will help Bangladesh to achieve that.

Assumptions is the mother of all goof ups, and i haven't seen any concrete proof of natural gas resource in Bangladesh, other than off course, farts.

 

[CaPtAiN_pLaNeT]

Firstly, i didn't talk about social indicators, since i know whenever it comes to India & BD comparison, u only have this rhetoric & i have heard this here atleast 1000 times if not less.

Secondly, i m not at all talking about GDP (PPP) since India already is 3rd largest economy in terms of that, i m talking about GDP(nominal) per capita, & these are the figures for SA nations in US $$$$:

Maldives 5,892
Sri Lanka 2,880
Bhutan 2,053
India 1,514
Pakistan 1,199
Bangladesh 767

Now, BD is the last ranked in terms of GDP(nominal) per capita, even if i believe that somehow u crosses Indian GDP per capita, how will u cross the SL & Maldivian GDP per capita which are nearly thrice & eight times of BD resp. to become the largest in SA??

+ India already uses the base year as 2004-05 for all economic calculations & Indian economy is not slowing down, this is a global phenomenon & current economic growth rate will be close to 6% & it will be only 1-2 more fiscal years before Indian economy can again rise to 7-8% mark, this is not i but even the IMF & WB are saying:



This is what will happen to the global economy for the next three years | GlobalPost

I don't know what MAGIC will the change of base year do to BD economy that all of a sudden it will be the largest in terms of per capita in SA, if that was the case every nation would have changed the base year rather than thinking of real development.

This has been told numerous time that only because of using 95 as base year per capita of GDP of Bangladesh is showing less but in terms of 2005 base year it will be much higher. On top of it in the last 4 year BDT has been depreciated by around 33% against USD alone which at some point will start appreciating again and will boost GDP or per capita GDP. For example Myanmar in one year by appreciating Kyat against USD raise per capita GDP from 560 USD to 853 USD.

India is not a superpower sort of thing. It has just got some advantage due to slow down of BD after liberation war thats why it able to raise it's per capita GDP little but other wise it always had lower per capita GDP then Bangladesh.

For Malaysiya and Srilanka the economy wont grow as faster as other countries in south asia.

 

[rashtriya.rifles]

This has been told numerous time that only because of using 95 as base year per capita of GDP of Bangladesh is showing less but in terms of 2005 base year it will be much higher. On top of it in the last 4 year BDT has been depreciated by around 33% against USD alone which at some point will start appreciating again and will boost GDP or per capita GDP. For example Myanmar in one year by appreciating Kyat against USD raise per capita GDP from 560 USD to 853 USD.

India is not a superpower sort of thing. It has just got some advantage due to slow down of BD after liberation war thats why it able to raise it's per capita GDP little but other wise it always had lower per capita GDP then Bangladesh.

For Malaysiya and Srilanka the economy wont grow as faster as other countries in south asia.

With economists galore like this ^^ , I am 100% sure that BD will become the top ecom=nomy by 2050

 

[gslv mk3]

This has been told numerous time that only because of using 95 as base year per capita of GDP of Bangladesh is showing less but in terms of 2005 base year it will be much higher. On top of it in the last 4 year BDT has been depreciated by around 33% against USD alone which at some point will start appreciating again and will boost GDP or per capita GDP. For example Myanmar in one year by appreciating Kyat against USD raise per capita GDP from 560 USD to 853 USD.

India is not a superpower sort of thing. It has just got some advantage due to slow down of BD after liberation war thats why it able to raise it's per capita GDP little but other wise it always had lower per capita GDP then Bangladesh.

For Malaysiya and Srilanka the economy wont grow as faster as other countries in south asia.

^^^^Build some sort of Basic Infrastructure dude....then compare with us!!!!!

 

[MandarK]

This has been told numerous time that only because of using 95 as base year per capita of GDP of Bangladesh is showing less but in terms of 2005 base year it will be much higher. On top of it in the last 4 year BDT has been depreciated by around 33% against USD alone which at some point will start appreciating again and will boost GDP or per capita GDP. For example Myanmar in one year by appreciating Kyat against USD raise per capita GDP from 560 USD to 853 USD.

India is not a superpower sort of thing. It has just got some advantage due to slow down of BD after liberation war thats why it able to raise it's per capita GDP little but other wise it always had lower per capita GDP then Bangladesh.

For Malaysiya and Srilanka the economy wont grow as faster as other countries in south asia.

Currency appreciate karna to ghar ki kheti hai........

If you think that BD can appreciaye its currency then why not other countries?? They will also appreciate their currency to increase per capita income.

 

[sidr]

Assumptions is the mother of all goof ups, and i haven't seen any concrete proof of natural gas resource in Bangladesh, other than off course, farts.

Nonsense,natural gas do exist in bd.

 

[Ankit_Pujari]

Bangladesh economy may overtake western countries by 2050

Inshallah.
But will Bangladesh survive till 2050? Doubtful. Perhaps the Northernmost regions & CHT may, but what of the rest of Bangladesh?

With global warming happening, rising sea levels, wont future Bangladeshis become eco-refugees? AFAIK Already New Zealand takes in a given number of citizens each year from Pacific island nations

Future non-existence of Bangladeshi landmass will impose grave demographic challenges to the Indian Republic

 

[manofwar]

Inshallah.
But will Bangladesh survive till 2050? Doubtful. Perhaps the Northernmost regions & CHT may, but what of the rest of Bangladesh?

With global warming happening, rising sea levels, wont future Bangladeshis become eco-refugees? AFAIK Already New Zealand takes in a given number of citizens each year from Pacific island nations

Future non-existence of Bangladeshi landmass will impose grave demographic challenges to the Indian Republic

Land submergence of a few metres is one thing, but you take it to a whole new level mate.......BD is here to stay for atleast the century dude.......and that's only if we don't find a cleaner fuel(which we will in the next 5 years probably....

This article estimates land loss till the end of the 21st century from the end of the 20th century only by 0.18 to 0.59 m......
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf