Balance of power tips toward Iran

[SipahSalar]

What about the US? Is US leaving NATO?

My bad, other than US

I was speaking in context with Europe.

 

[Daneshmand]

I agree with you that the lack of operational and ideological control from the Saudis towards their proxies is the main reason why they've failed in the region, but this failure does not have a direct impact on Saudi's security situation and political existence. The Houthis on the other hand have managed to take over the Yemeni capital and some important ports in the Red Sea, which basically means that the Houthis now have a clear logistical line with Iran through the port in Hudaydah and Sanaa international airport. This is an extremely terrible situation for the Saudis, who now face an Iranian-backed political and military group in their backyard.

That is right. But the biggest threat to Saudi monarchy is actually a coup. Specially a military or a palace coup.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

The rise of Iran will be inevitable despite she is being attack by Sunnis and her White man ally. The rise of Iran will contribute further to de-extremization of Islam.

Sunni is sectarian. Islam is not necessarily militanting but Sunni in current form is.

Ahmadya is entirely peaceful.

Shia has not been engaging in indiscriminate killings. Ayatollah Sistani in my opinion deserve a Nobel Prize of peace.

Iran is largely meritocratic and her cabinet has more USA university PHDs than France or Germany. The Arab Sheikh land elites are mostly relative, and nepotism.

Despite having far more resources than Iran, the Arab Sunni keep losing grounds.

 

[Vassnti]

Iran is not just pouring money and weaponry to all kinds of militias. It builds, forms, trains, equips and guides these militias on the battlefield, having IRGC-officers joining them in the theatre of war. Moreover, it has ideological influence vis-a-vis these militias, and the very fact that it is capable of providing them with indigenously produced weaponry also gives Iran an edge over the Saudis. Saudi Arabia on the other hand has failed enormously: Assad is still in power, and the Syrian Army still controls significant parts in Syria, the strategic areas and a clear majority of the population; in Lebanon the Saudis haven't scored much success, while in the meanwhile Hezbollah is the still the most potent military force in the country; and in Bahrein the only reason why things are relatively calm is because Iran has not attempted to militarize the conflict, which it could easily do.

And while Iran has managed to keep its influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, Iranian-backed Houthis took over the capital in Yemen, under the nose of your politically-wise Saudis, who didn't even saw it coming, in their own backyard.

One theme repeated many times here is the stupidity of the US that trains locals, equips them and then gets them to do the fighting however eventually the very same locals turn on the US set up their own little empires and start causing all sorts of crap for the people around them. You do have to wonder what in store 20years down the track for Iran following a system that gives short term advantages but is a long term disaster?

 

[Daneshmand]

One theme repeated many times here is the stupidity of the US that trains locals, equips them and then gets them to do the fighting however eventually the very same locals turn on the US set up their own little empires and start causing all sorts of crap for the people around them. You do have to wonder what in store 20years down the track for Iran following a system that gives short term advantages but is a long term disaster?

That is because US or its vassal states can not ideologically and operationally lead these dark forces they unleash. It is a losing battle for them.

Iran on the other hand has been at this game for too long. And always successfully. Whether in Oman, or with Kurds or other places. US is by comparison a new state. Iran has been living this way for several thousand years.

Another technical point, to remember is the fact that Shia ideology works differently than Sunni ideology. Shias have a central ideological paradigm. An analogy would be with Catholics who have a Pope. In Shiaism, there are Marja' who control the situation and their say is final. Disagreements can only exist between these Marja', not between the people. Sunni ideological paradigm on the other hand is highly decentralized. There are no central authorities accepted by all in Sunnism. Therefore anyone can pop up and take the helm of affairs and declare himself the new Caliph.

 

[Hiptullha]

Basically translating into the fact that Iran has managed to ideologically bind tens of thousands of fighters to them, because they do not only share the same belief, but also the same political worldview and regional stance.

Same political worldview and regional stance? Spare the nonsense. They've sucked in desperate people in a war-torn country who have no other choice but to accept their support. You're turning it into minorities frightened by ISIS and turning to Iran into thousands of fighters who are committed to spreading Iranian influence. A tiny minority subscribes to that goal.

His writ was never important to Iran. Having a clear geographical and logistical link to Hezbollah was, as well as preventing rebel groups from taking over Damascus and getting a significant foothold in the strategic areas of the Levant.

His writ mattered to the Gulf countries. He's weakened, there are other parties in place right now, and countless doors opened. Assad will never be able to regain control unless he can compromise, (which he obviously can't when there are dozens of militias and factions operating).

Which pressure? Seems like you live in lala-land. And there are no pro-Saudi militant groups in Lebanon. The only true pro-Saudi political group in Lebanon is the Future Movement, who has not 'risen' nor is a military threat to Hezbollah.

I did not say there are pro-Saudi groups in Lebanon, but pro-Saudi armed groups around the Lebanese. Not a problem for Lebanon? Not increasing pressure? Not a military threat? Hezbollah itself is now getting involved in Syria because of the threat of another enemy on its doorstep.

Not a question of capability, but willingness. Iran has not wanted to destabilize Bahrein for a number of reasons.

Yeah right. They tried, and failed and so had to back off.

Not the only one, but surely their biggest.

Things seem to be going rather well for them despite their massive mistakes. Iran's "successes" in Iraq and Syria really aren't successes considering the fact that both the puppet governments are weaker and will need eventually try to give some space for the Sunnis if they want to stay in power.

 

[Dr.Thrax]

Eh. Won't last for long. When rebels free Syria their supply line to the Hezbollah rats will be cut. And Syrians would definitely want revenge, so there goes Lebanon and Iraq, at least. Iran would be attacked as well. You can call me crazy all you want but that is what will happen.

 

[Daneshmand]

You can call me crazy all you want.

I call you crazy

 

[Surenas]

Same political worldview and regional stance? Spare the nonsense. They've sucked in desperate people in a war-torn country who have no other choice but to accept their support. You're turning it into minorities frightened by ISIS and turning to Iran into thousands of fighters who are committed to spreading Iranian influence. A tiny minority subscribes to that goal.

Long before ISIS popped up Iran had significant ideological support among many 'resistance' groups in the region. The reasons why are irrelevant. What matters is the reality on the ground.

His writ mattered to the Gulf countries. He's weakened, there are other parties in place right now, and countless doors opened. Assad will never be able to regain control unless he can compromise, (which he obviously can't when there are dozens of militias and factions operating).

His rule only mattered to these Arab countries because of his closeness to Iran. Their opposition against Assad is too eliminate Iran's influence in Syria and subsequently the Levant. Assad is still controlling many parts in the region.

I did not say there are pro-Saudi groups in Lebanon, but pro-Saudi armed groups around the Lebanese. Not a problem for Lebanon? Not increasing pressure? Not a military threat? Hezbollah itself is now getting involved in Syria because of the threat of another enemy on its doorstep.

Which pro-Saudi group? Please enlighten me. Show me a pro-Saudi group that shows great ideological connection to the House of Saud.

Yeah right. They tried, and failed and so had to back off.

Failed in what? Peaceful protests? You know how easy it would be for Iran to pour the Shiite community in Bahrein with sophisticated weaponry that could turn overwhelmingly peaceful protests into an all-out insurgency?

Things seem to be going rather well for them despite their massive mistakes. Iran's "successes" in Iraq and Syria really aren't successes considering the fact that both the puppet governments are weaker and will need eventually try to give some space for the Sunnis if they want to stay in power.

Weaker or not, they still control most strategic areas.

 

[Azeri440]

Says who? Despite your butthurtic and pathetic reference to human waves, a tactic which Iran used more than 30 years ago out of necessity (even Azerbaijan used human wave attacks against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war), but has since then been dropped from Iran's military doctrine. Azerbaijan would not have a chance against Iran in case of war. Azerbaijan is the caucasian equivalent of Saudi Arabia; nice stuff but a completely incompetent army. The Armenians would still whoop AZE today, like they did a couple of decades ago.

please enlighten me on how that will happen
or please enlighten me how Azerbaijan has an incompetent army
I am sure with your long standing experience being a keyboard warrior you can tell us about some of the problems
the only superior part about Iran is it's air force, but they stand no chance in lasting in the most
advanced AD network in the region, simply lacking any sort of jamming capability.

Azerbaijan didn't even have an army at the start of war , Iran took a decade to fight Iraqis and got "whooped" by US
right in its backyard only suffering 2 losses due to a crash , I am sure you know the number of sailors Iran lost.

Saudi Arabia spares no expense to provide its soldiers with the best training and equipment.
its just you stupidity, that everything from the past is still the same case today.

stick your head out of your *** , and realize then country you don't even live in , is not some sort of super power
it has negative growth and a GDP per capita many times less than any of other countries you listed.

 

[Militant Atheist]

Eh. Won't last for long. When rebels free Syria their supply line to the Hezbollah rats will be cut. And Syrians would definitely want revenge, so there goes Lebanon and Iraq, at least. Iran would be attacked as well. You can call me crazy all you want but that is what will happen.

You are insane

 

[raptor22]

Eh. Won't last for long. When rebels free Syria their supply line to the Hezbollah rats will be cut. And Syrians would definitely want revenge, so there goes Lebanon and Iraq, at least. Iran would be attacked as well. You can call me crazy all you want but that is what will happen.

Crazy ....

 

[B@KH]

Eh. Won't last for long. When rebels free Syria their supply line to the Hezbollah rats will be cut. And Syrians would definitely want revenge, so there goes Lebanon and Iraq, at least. Iran would be attacked as well. You can call me crazy all you want but that is what will happen.

Despite Nato+allies blessings the rebels cannot defeat Hezbullah or Iran or their allies and have failed to topple Asad.

Basically syria is now divided and Asad is the symbol of the United Syria.

The Only way of winning for the syrian rebels is direct foreign intervention by NATO+allies in Syria.

But In this case the Syria will be divided into druze, alavi, fsa, isil, kurdish regions and cannot be a threat to anyone.

 

[Serpentine]

Eh. Won't last for long. When rebels free Syria their supply line to the Hezbollah rats will be cut. And Syrians would definitely want revenge, so there goes Lebanon and Iraq, at least. Iran would be attacked as well. You can call me crazy all you want but that is what will happen.

Rebels are busy killing each other, but Inshallah, God is with the rebels, especially Nusra ones.

 

[Dr.Thrax]

Despite Nato+allies blessings the rebels cannot defeat Hezbullah or Iran or their allies and have failed to topple Asad.

Basically syria is now divided and Asad is the symbol of the United Syria.

The Only way of winning for the syrian rebels is direct foreign intervention by NATO+allies in Syria.

But In this case the Syria will be divided into druze, alavi, fsa, isil, kurdish regions and cannot be a threat to anyone.

LOL
Assad has had help from: Iran (top IRGC commanders including Qassem Suleimani,) Houthis in Yemen, multiple Shiite armed groups from Iraq, Hazara Afghans (both abused refugees and mercenaries,) Hezbollah, and countless others. These are all relatively organised armed groups. These amount to 21,000 armed fighters.
Rebels got support from...a few old TOWs from the US, and monetary funding from Turkey and GCC. No troops on the ground, and trained rebels are a rarirty.
Iran has its army (the shiites + IRGC) and controls the SAA in the southern front, and still can't defeat the Rebels. If you haven't noticed, NATO+US haven't deployed their troops to combat SAA. So it's literally 90 million shiites vs 17 million Syrians, and the Syrians are holding off an winning.
And no, Syria won't be divided. The majority of the country (even a lot of Kurds) want the country to be 1, even if they disagree on who governs it.

Rebels are busy killing each other, but Inshallah, God is with the rebels, especially Nusra ones.

I've spoken out openly against Nusra, but you still claim that I support them. Do you want me to add "Death to Nusra" in my signature to make it clear? You'd probably say I support them anyways.
And no, Nusra would now have to attack the entirity of LF and face utter destruction if they want to wipe out the former Hazzm members. And IIRC no conflict is currently ongoing amongst the rebels.
btw to all the Iranians calling me crazy, thank you. Please do underestimate us.