Balance of power tips toward Iran

[Hiptullha]

Both countries, Turkey and Iran, are regional powers. There's no argument between that, both have the land area, the population, the industry, the resources, the overall strategic depth. I would counsel all Turkish and Iranian members to discourse with each other , it is impossible to have a healthy conversation when one puts the other down through vitriol.

So let's all show some respect for each other here. Even if we may differ in view.

The thing is, what makes Iran a "regional power" is the fact that there enough crazies in the Middle East who buy into their mullah ideology. Combine that with the fact that many countries in the Middle East have been ravaged by civil war and lo and behold! Iran now has an "effective fighting force" which will "crush" Saudi influence and "take over" the Middle East.
No point comparing Turkey to Iran. They are complete polar opposites.

 

[Surenas]

Yeah buddy, Iran indeed has its own little sectarian terror empire, similar to ISIS.

You do not need to give me your misplaced moral view of what is happening in the region. ISIS is nothing. It controls nothing significant, strategic, is slowly being ousted by relatively small Iranian assistance to Iraqi forces. The gains Iran has made on the other hand are solid, having immense influence in Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Sana'a, etc. Its empire reaches all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

But how come Iran with its insignificant oil based economy which is mostly isolated from the global system; with its undisciplined army and nonexistent airforce, is going to dominate countries like KSA, Turkey, Israel?

'Precious isolation'. Those are the words of your own leader. Iran has managed to establish the world's largest scientific growth in isolation, significant military self-reliance and a steady increase of its influence and presence in the region. Besides, Iran is not isolated. It is no North Korea or Zimbabwe. Iran has ties with most countries in the world, with China, Russia, etc. They might have supported some sanctions in the past, but if you had recent developments, you'll see that it is completely different now. And I don't know who ever told you about Iran having a 'undisciplined army', which is utter nonsense.

And who cares about air force? Seriously. KSA has the most advanced US jets in its arsenal and is spending more money on arms than most countries in the world, yet they are being completely outmaneuvered by Iran. The same counts for your Turkey, which with all its GDP and so-called conventional strength, has failed in its foreign policy.

Even Azerbaijan alone has the technological edge to defend itself against Iran's human waves.

Says who? Despite your butthurtic and pathetic reference to human waves, a tactic which Iran used more than 30 years ago out of necessity (even Azerbaijan used human wave attacks against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war), but has since then been dropped from Iran's military doctrine. Azerbaijan would not have a chance against Iran in case of war. Azerbaijan is the caucasian equivalent of Saudi Arabia; nice stuff but a completely incompetent army. The Armenians would still whoop AZE today, like they did a couple of decades ago.

So yeah... Experiencing delusions again Surenas?

The one who is deluded is you. Probably originates out of a deep feeling of frustration when seeing Iran slowly taking over more countries in the region.

By the way, your kin wants an independent Kurdistan out of Iran. What are you talking about?

No they want. Ask yourself why Iran is the only state in the region with a Kurdish population, but faces no problem like Turkey, Syria or Iraq when it comes to its Kurdish minority.

 

[TheGrim]

Yes yes Turkey has a military that can't really fight and is for show How stupid are some of you ?

 

[Militant Atheist]

As I said before these articles are only good for fear-mongering purposes and unfortunately some Iranians contribute to the fear-mongering as well. The reality is that Saudis are doing far better than us, due to good relations with the West. Hell, the U.S. presidents bow down to Saudi Kings and Europeans ministers literally suck their dick, U.S. foreign secretary runs to Riyadh like a bellboy at Saudis' demand, U.S. congressmen and senators are in their pocket like cheap prostitutes and will do their bidding whenever Saudis desire. Right now U.S. oil companies are facing immense pressure but can't do shit against the Saudis, because they have the leverage and could control the oil market as they desire. Thousands of Americans gone unemployed because of the low oil prices and the long-term effect of low oil prices could resemble something like 2008 financial crisis if not controlled.

They have low population and enormous wealth that can sustain them for generations. Lack of self-sufficiency in Saudi and some of the Persian Gulf countries is due to availability of foreign experts, not because they don't have brain, if they don't do as well as Iranians academically its not due to their lower intelligence necessarily, but due to their lack of motivation for doing so. I had classmates that were far less Academically Achieving than me, the same people were employed by ARAMCO when they returned to Saudi.

Overall, don't buy into this bullshit propaganda, we need to maintain good relations with the West and our neighbors, especially the Saudis.

 

[Surenas]

As I said before these articles are only good for fear-mongering purposes and unfortunately some Iranians contribute to the fear-mongering as well. The reality is that Saudis are doing far better than us, due to good relations with the West. Hell, the U.S. presidents bow down to Saudi Kings and Europeans ministers literally suck their dick, U.S. foreign secretary runs to Riyadh like a bellboy at Saudis' demand, U.S. congressmen and senators are in their pocket like cheap prostitutes and will do their bidding whenever Saudis desire. Right now U.S. oil companies are facing immense pressure but can't do shit against the Saudis, because they have the leverage and could control the oil market as they desire. Thousands of Americans gone unemployed because of the low oil prices and the long-term effect of low oil prices could resemble something like 2008 financial crisis if not controlled.

They have low population and enormous wealth that can sustain them for generations. Lack of self-sufficiency in Saudi and some of the Persian Gulf countries is due to availability of foreign experts, not because they don't have brain, if they don't do as well as Iranians academically its not due to their lower intelligence necessarily, but due to their lack of motivation for doing so. I had classmates that were far less Academically Achieving than me, the same people were employed by ARAMCO when they returned to Saudi.

Overall, don't buy into this bullshit propaganda, we need to maintain good relations with the West and our neighbors, especially the Saudis.

What are you talking about? The article isn't about US and other Western officials paying lip service to the Saudis due to their oil money, but the new reality of Iranian power in the Middle East. Iran has managed to increase its influence through many countries in the region, despite its economic situation. That is what you call political cunningness, military asymmetrical ingenuity and demonstrating long-term strategic planning and patience. The Arabs like the Saudis on the other hand fail because the only asset they got in buying loyalty is money.

 

[Hiptullha]

That is what you call political cunningness, military asymmetrical ingenuity and demonstrating long-term strategic planning and patience.

The Arabs like the Saudis on the other hand fail because the only asset they got in buying loyalty is money.

You're doing the same thing as the Saudis, nitwit. No matter how much Iran tries to honeycoat its actions, it is simply handing militia groups weapons and money to continue fighting, just like Saudi Arabia is doing. If anything, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated the most patience, political cunningness and ingenuity. They turned the Arab Spring into a tool to knock out Gaddafi who had been in control of Libya for almost 40 years, destabilize Assad's Syria, threaten Lebanon, and at the same time, prevent Iran from doing the same in Bahrain.

 

[Surenas]

You're doing the same thing as the Saudis, nitwit. No matter how much Iran tries to honeycoat its actions, it is simply handing militia groups weapons and money to continue fighting, just like Saudi Arabia is doing. If anything, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated the most patience, political cunningness and ingenuity. They turned the Arab Spring into a tool to knock out Gaddafi who had been in control of Libya for almost 40 years, destabilize Assad's Syria, threaten Lebanon, and at the same time, prevent Iran from doing the same in Bahrain.

Iran is not just pouring money and weaponry to all kinds of militias. It builds, forms, trains, equips and guides these militias on the battlefield, having IRGC-officers joining them in the theatre of war. Moreover, it has ideological influence vis-a-vis these militias, and the very fact that it is capable of providing them with indigenously produced weaponry also gives Iran an edge over the Saudis. Saudi Arabia on the other hand has failed enormously: Assad is still in power, and the Syrian Army still controls significant parts in Syria, the strategic areas and a clear majority of the population; in Lebanon the Saudis haven't scored much success, while in the meanwhile Hezbollah is the still the most potent military force in the country; and in Bahrein the only reason why things are relatively calm is because Iran has not attempted to militarize the conflict, which it could easily do.

And while Iran has managed to keep its influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, Iranian-backed Houthis took over the capital in Yemen, under the nose of your politically-wise Saudis, who didn't even saw it coming, in their own backyard.

 

[Hiptullha]

It builds, forms, trains, equips and guides these militias on the battlefield, having IRGC-officers joining them in the theatre of war.

They've got so few resources that they've had to send their own men into war-torn regions to fight alongside them.

Moreover, it has ideological influence vis-a-vis these militias

Basically translating into the fact that Iran has conned a bunch of dumb schmucks into fighting for them because they share the same belief.

Assad is still in power, and the Syrian Army still controls significant parts in Syria, the strategic areas and a clear majority of the population;

Nevertheless, his writ has been weakened. Syria will take decades to heal its wounds.

; in Lebanon the Saudis haven't scored much success, while in the meanwhile Hezbollah is the still the most potent military force in the country

The Saudis have not scored much success at this point in time. You've got to understand, Hezbollah has been in control for quite some time. The organisation is already under pressure with Israel breathing over its neck. The rise of pro-Saudi groups near Lebanon will increase the pressure, not crush them at once.

Bahrein the only reason why things are relatively calm is because Iran has not attempted to increase the heat

Or maybe Iran has not been able to increase the heat.

Iranian-backed Houthis took over the capital in Yemen, under the nose of your politically-wise Saudis, who didn't even saw it coming, in their own backyard.

The one real failure of the Saudis.

 

[KingMamba]

Super power? No. Regional power , Yes.

Pakistan , is more of a Major Regional Power, in context to the Greater Middle East due to her shear size (population + land size ), and of course, let us not forget Pakistan is a Nuclear Power.

Remember, Iran's population is around 80 million, Saudi Arabia's population is only 23 million. Pakistan is a behemoth , with a population of over 180 million combined.

Take that into consideration.

Pakistan does not wish to become a player in the "greater middle east", Pakistan will maintain and defend its influence in Afghanistan and built up its influence where the future lies, namely Central Asia. Oh and Pakistan's population is closer to 190 million actually lol.

 

[Daneshmand]

Good point. Iran should also be not party to conflict in Syria.

Iran has a defense pact with Syria. Beside Syria had helped Iran during Iran-Iraq war, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others were supporting Saddam. It is an old battle that is continuing.

 

[Surenas]

They've got so few resources that they've had to send their own men into war-torn regions to fight alongside them.

Bullcrap. The reason why Iran has send its own officers to these theaters of war is to give an expertise impulse on the battlefield.

Basically translating into the fact that Iran has conned a bunch of dumb schmucks into fighting for them because they share the same belief.

Basically translating into the fact that Iran has managed to ideologically bind tens of thousands of fighters to them, because they do not only share the same belief, but also the same political worldview and regional stance.

Nevertheless, his writ has been weakened. Syria will take decades to heal its wounds.

His writ was never important to Iran. Having a clear geographical and logistical link to Hezbollah was, as well as preventing rebel groups from taking over Damascus and getting a significant foothold in the strategic areas of the Levant.

The Saudis have not scored much success at this point in time. You've got to understand, Hezbollah has been in control for quite some time. The organisation is already under pressure with Israel breathing over its neck. The rise of pro-Saudi groups near Lebanon will increase the pressure, not crush them at once.

Which pressure? Seems like you live in lala-land. And there are no pro-Saudi militant groups in Lebanon. The only true pro-Saudi political group in Lebanon is the Future Movement, who has not 'risen' nor is a military threat to Hezbollah.

Seems like you don't know what you're talking about.

Or maybe Iran has not been able to increase the heat.

Not a question of capability, but willingness. Iran has not wanted to destabilize Bahrein for a number of reasons.

The one real failure of the Saudis.

Not the only one, but surely their biggest.

 

[Daneshmand]

Not the only one, but surely their biggest.

This is not correct. Their biggest failure is their inability to control and exercise influence over the proxies and allies they create in the region. As you can see they created Isis to damage Iranian interests in the region, but it run out of their control. The same is the case with every other such entities they created from Afghan proxies to now. Alot of proficiency in operational art and ideological leadership is needed to keep things glued when engaged in real world. This level of management is only being shown from Iran. Others do not have the mastery.

 

[SipahSalar]

Turkish armed forces is not the super-duper fighting machine that it is made out to be. The efficient fighting machine, is the one that can take over a ground and hold it. The rest is just BS. Good for marches and parades down the streets among clapping ladies lined on both sides.

You only need to look at Turkish military history. Look at their war of independance! They fought European Powers that won WW1 and they beat them. I am saying this because that was the time when no one went against these European powers. Our people in India tried war of independance, and were crushed badly. Same for middle east. Turkey was called the sick man of europe and they still were able to fight off the europeans.

Look at the Cyprus as an example of power projection against a EUROPEAN nation. Cyprus is an island, think about the logistics it took to invade it.

Even by conservative estimates it is said that Turkey will become the most powerful military in NATO in 15 years. Even though some claim that even now. Although on paper they have older tanks and planes, that can be misleading. Their military's size is still massive while other European nations are shrinking.

Iran is also a very capable nation. They fought off and beat Iraq when US and other Arab nations were supporting Iraq. No small feat. But it still doesn't compare to Turkey. Just because you don't see them getting their hands dirty, dont think they wont fight like a wolf once the gloves come off.

 

[Surenas]

This is not correct. Their biggest failure is their inability to control and exercise influence over the proxies and allies they create in the region. As you can see they created Isis to damage Iranian interests in the region, but it run out of their control. The same is the case with every other such entities they created from Afghan proxies to now. Alot of proficiency in operational art and ideological leadership is needed to keep things glued when engaged in real world. This level of management is only being shown from Iran. Others do not have the mastery.

I agree with you that the lack of operational and ideological control from the Saudis towards their proxies is the main reason why they've failed in the region, but this failure does not have a direct impact on Saudi's security situation and political existence. The Houthis on the other hand have managed to take over the Yemeni capital and some important ports in the Red Sea, which basically means that the Houthis now have a clear logistical line with Iran through the port in Hudaydah and Sanaa international airport. This is an extremely terrible situation for the Saudis, who now face an Iranian-backed political and military group in their backyard.

 

[Militant Atheist]

You only need to look at Turkish military history. Look at their war of independance! They fought European Powers that won WW1 and they beat them. I am saying this because that was the time when no one went against these European powers. Our people in India tried war of independance, and were crushed badly. Same for middle east. Turkey was called the sick man of europe and they still were able to fight off the europeans.

Look at the Cyprus as an example of power projection against a EUROPEAN nation. Cyprus is an island, think about the logistics it took to invade it.

Even by conservative estimates it is said that Turkey will become the most powerful military in NATO in 15 years. Even though some claim that even now. Although on paper they have older tanks and planes, that can be misleading. Their military's size is still massive while other European nations are shrinking.

Iran is also a very capable nation. They fought off and beat Iraq when US and other Arab nations were supporting Iraq. No small feat. But it still doesn't compare to Turkey. Just because you don't see them getting their hands dirty, dont think they wont fight like a wolf once the gloves come off.

What about the US? Is US leaving NATO?

T

What are you talking about? The article isn't about US and other Western officials paying lip service to the Saudis due to their oil money, but the new reality of Iranian power in the Middle East. Iran has managed to increase its influence through many countries in the region, despite its economic situation. That is what you call political cunningness, military asymmetrical ingenuity and demonstrating long-term strategic planning and patience. The Arabs like the Saudis on the other hand fail because the only asset they got in buying loyalty is money.

Im on my phone and cant type too much. all im saying is that we need to play smarter. What another user said about saudi is true, theyre cunning and allow others to do their dity work for themthat is rarely traced back to them.