Graphican, your entire projection is based on the premise that the USA will get defeated and pull out completely, and so will India, leaving Mullah Omar to rule Afghanistan. The world will never accept that! Even in the past, the world did not accept that. Only three countries had recognized Taliban's legitimacy..
US cant stay in Afghanistan forever. Even in CNN recently they said Taliban controls 80% of Afghanistan now and they are getting stronger, and I dont think US will spend another TRILLION dollars on Afghanistan. However, I dont think it'll be good for Pakistan if Afghan Taliban regain control of Afghanistan because Pakistan sided with US in this war and Afghan Taliban wont be friendly with Pakistan as they used to be before US invasion of Afghanistan.
Secondly, Talibanis do not appreciate democracy, so I do not understand why would they not come after a democratic Pakistan and bring it under their version of Sharia, esp after having seen their victory in Afghanistan against a country like the mighty USA...
Very unlikely. They'll be too busy tring to establish their version of Islam all across Afghanistan, even the areas where there are majority Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara population that always resisted the Taliban. For them, control of entire Afghanistan is more important than control of Pakistan.
Thirdly, geopolitics does not go on the lines of 'friendship' and likeness (ex: China is Pakistan's friend... NO! Chinese have interest in the region, and need to achieve something, that's all). Similarly, Taliban also has its own interest, and will very easily make lucrative deals with their yesteryear foe, the USA, to supply oil from Central Asia. They were already on it with UNOCAL, when the Taliban government was in power, despite the fact that it was not recognized by the USA....
Yes you are right. Afghan Taliban will look for best interest of their country. They think if they are in control of Afghanistan, then its the only way for Afghanistan to succeed. Of course they are going to look after Afghanistan's interest while sticking to their ideologies.
Finally, entire Afghanistan knows that Pakistanis look at Afghans with contempt, so what makes you think Afghanistan (even under Taliban) will not look for others (even India or the USA) to help them against Pakistan's incursions? - One simple, though insignificant, example:....
Thats incorrect. Pakistanis never looked at Afghans as contempt. Since the independence of Pakistan in 1947, Pakistan had no conflicts with Afghans, we never secured the border with Afghanistan our attention was always toward securing borders with India. The people living near Pak-Afghan border travelled back and forth thinking as if Pakistan and Afghanistan was just one big country of theirs.
All these years, how much and how often has Pakistan invested in Afghanistan's infrastructure? A country like India, no matter what its objectives, has spent more on infrastructure in Afghanistan, than has Pakistan. Do you think Afghans do not see that?.
Pakistan and India are both 3rd world developing countries with millions of people living below the poverty line. Both countries should develop their own infrastructure first. You are talking as if India is US and Pakistan is Canada that we have billions of dollars to build infrastructure in another 3rd world country. What about helping our own people first, but I know India sees this as a once in a lifetime golden oppurtunity because Karzai (indian puppet) is the leader of Afghanistan and Afghanistan is important because of its strategic location, being part of both Central and South Asia.
I seriously doubt a Talibani government in Afghanistan will be very beneficial for a Punjabi/Baloch/Sindhi ruled Pakistan.
You forgot to mention the 2nd largest ethnic group in Pakistan. Pashtuns.
The only common ground between Afghans and Pakistanis is Islam, and there too we can see the some wide cracks appearing because of their difference in interpretation of Islam as a whole..
Afghans and the people in western half of Pakistan share many similarities...and thats why whenever there's something that happens in Afghanistan, Afghans chose to migrate into Pakistan. For decades, Pakistan has hoisted the largest Afghan refugee population in the world and there's still millions of Afghans living in Pakistan. Just near my uncle's house in Islamabad, lived a large Afghan community. How many Afghans are there in India?
In my personal opinion, Pakistan can only benefit by helping the USA so much in this war, that they win quickly against the Taliban. Then Pakistan can invest its time and energy internally, become stable, and enjoy the benefits of it being in a critical position when oil flows from the Central Asia. May be then, with its newly found importance, Pakistan may also have some leverage over India on border/Kashmir issues.
Thats a possibility, but I think enough is enough and after all TTP members are extinct we should stop the war. Pakistanis are sick of war.
