Interesting analyze but in my opinion very superficial. I will go throw and point out why.
Hello guys,
I want to engage you for your opinion if defeated America is in the favor of Pakistan or not. In my opinion, America and NATO's forthcoming defeat is beneficial to the country in many ways.
1 - With America being lost and gone, we will have pre 9/11 status of Afghanistan back which was in the favor of Pakistan every way.
Not really, 9/11 changed the world, today its deferent environment what will happen if US leaves it will boast the moral of Jahadist, they will claim they have defeated yet another super power. What is the grantee they will NOT try to impose their will on a much weaker Pakistani state?
2 - Indian activities and elements will be cleansed, or atleast cleansed from the areas that concern Pakistan the most.
In short term it will, but in long term any Pakhtun centric government in Afghanistan will look at India as strategic partner, that is if nationalism takes a hold in Taliban.
3 - Afghanistan will remain a threat to Americans and inspite of their escape from it, they will depend heavily on Pakistan for their matters concerning Afghanistan.
You mean Taliban run Afghanistan, yes it will not only to America but the whole world and region, including China, Russia, Iran and India. The question is what will these countries do in response to this threat? will they set idyll and allow Taliban take over? Once the America leaves the nationalist forces will not stay with Taliban, what will these nationalist Pashtons do if they gain the support of India, Russia and Iran?
4 - Our FATA and Baluchistan issues will resolve a lot sooner than they will do now. Terrorist hideouts will be eliminated and their supplies will be cut a great deal.
You need to realize that no gov can touch a nation unless her people allows it. You might call the nationalist in Balochistan as terrorist and what not but the fact is majority of Baloch sees them as freedom fighters. In 60+ years 3 times Balochs have rebelled, this should tell you that there are grievances and if you want to resolve these issues then you MUST address these grievances.
5 - In terms of Business and infrastructure, Pakistan will have a lot to offer to Afghans and our economy and trade will boost.
Most Afghans hates Taliban as much as most Pakistanis do. No sane person would want to live under Taliban rule. Now by imposing Taliban on Afghanistan, pakistani gov will gain the aversion of afghan people. In term of economy taliban have no plan or agenda, infect Im sure they don't even know what economy is. Before 9/11 trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan was under $100 million. In 2008 the trade or should I say the Pakistan export to Afghanistan for the trade is very asymmetric, consisting for the most part by imports from Pakistan, as compared to very little formal Afghan exports has raise over $1 billion.
6 - With peace on Westen Borders, we could focus our energies on the eastern borders to counter India.
There will not be peace on western border, Taliban don't know peace, and even if we accept that Taliban enjoy Pakhtun majority support what is the grantee the Pakhtun of FATA or NFWP won't demand the same Islamic Sharia? For even the pro-pakistan Pakistani Taliban have their allegiance to Mullah Omar.
7 - American influence from the region will get reduced and even for that sake, they will depend more on Pakistan/India and we will have better control of them than now.
In my opinion, this American defeat is more favorable to the country than its presence. I am unable to find 1 good reason to see America being successful in Afghanistan. What do you guys say?
I don't think America will close their eyes on the threat to their country and peoples safety. Unlike our politician the American politician do care for life and safety of their people.
Over all, what we need to understand is Afghan nationalism is actually Pakhtun nationalism, it's Afghan Pakhtun that demands creation of Pakhtunistan not the Afghan Persian. What is the grantee ones Pakhtun Taliban takes over Kabul and establishes their hold they will not demand Pakhutnistan? Or all Pakistan for ideologically they dont see any border between Muslim.