2014 Elections - Grave Implications for India

[genmirajborgza786]

Rahul Gandhi for pm & digvijay singh for president, mayawati for finance minister & finally
mamta Banerjee for ministry of external affairs

 

[Indo-guy]

I know it is very unlikely but giving VK Singh the role of Defence minister would be AWESOME or anyone from a defence background really but especially VK Singh who pushed hard for modernisation initially.

well we never had person of direct military background as defense minister ...That's very important and interesting point to question ? why ? in 67 year old history of India ...we had many illustrious military leaders ...why our politicians have kept military leadership away from political main stream - is an important question to ask ?


traditionally speaking very few Military leaders have dabbled with politics ....majority of them happy with ceremonial posts such as governors etc .

There are going to be many implications for having military person as defense minister ...especially ambitious person like VK singh ...
I hope it will spell good time for Defense ministry which is reeling under indecisiveness of Mr AK Antony who is more worried about his Clean image rather than our defense preparedness .

But we need to strengthen institutions also rather than just depend on good individuals ...because individuals come and go ...but institutions stays !

Rahul Gandhi for pm & digvijay singh for president, mayawati for finance minister & finally
mamta Banerjee for ministry of external affairs

Robert Vadra should be a commerce minister ...!

This Division of Power is for the Mango people of Banana Republic !

 

[Puchtoon]

1.Modi needs to pull some strings(some more sangh loving statements;Reuters type) and get that nominee thing done quickly .

2.They have to win UP bigtime ,Min 35 is must .
3.BJP will gain from anti incumbency+DEVELOPMENT agenda in BJP vs congress states BUT they have to check infighting .
4.Modi has to do massive propaganda work in other states to change his popularity into seats .

All will depend on BJP seats .

Below 160 :- 3rd front Government
Between 160-180 : BJP with sushma advani ,dark horses
182+ : Modi

182 is a very crucial and psychological number which modi has to PASS in any circumstances .

 

[Indo-guy]

1.Modi needs to pull some strings(some more sangh loving statements;Reuters type) and get that nominee thing done quickly .

2.They have to win UP bigtime ,Min 35 is must .
3.BJP will gain from anti incumbency+DEVELOPMENT agenda in BJP vs congress states BUT they have to check infighting .
4.Modi has to do massive propaganda work in other states to change his popularity into seats .

All will depend on BJP seats .

Below 160 :- 3rd front Government
Between 160-180 : BJP with sushma advani ,dark horses
182+ : Modi

182 is a very crucial and psychological number which modi has to PASS in any circumstances .

well frankly speaking ....even with great leader like Atal bihari Vajpayee at helm ....BJP just managed 180 seats in 1998 ...so 180 + is big task for Narendra Modi ....

He will have to toil very hard and look for miracle besides....!!!

 

[Puchtoon]

well frankly speaking ....even with great leader like Atal bihari Vajpayee at helm ....BJP just managed 180 seats in 1998 ...so 180 + is big task for Narendra Modi ....

He will have to toil very hard and look for miracle besides....!!!

Not that hard ! In that time BJP was a NEW alternative to congress in NI states while now its THE alternate and running successful governments from sometime .

Here is a nice analysis
Withering Congress, dithering BJP by Head On : Minhaz Merchant's blog-The Times Of India

BTW Atal bihari was NOT a good strategist.

 

[Indo-guy]

Not that hard ! In that time BJP was a NEW alternative to congress in NI states while now its THE alternate and running successful governments from sometime .

Here is a nice analysis
Withering Congress, dithering BJP by Head On : Minhaz Merchant's blog-The Times Of India

BTW Atal bihari was NOT a good strategist.

But he was the most charismatic leader BJP ever had ....basically he was instrumental in attracting NON BJP voters like me to vote for BJP !!!

Thanks for your link ...I will read it thoroughly and then post reply ....

 

[Abingdonboy]

well we never had person of direct military background as defense minister ...That's very important and interesting point to question ? why ? in 67 year old history of India ...we had many illustrious military leaders ...why our politicians have kept military leadership away from political main stream - is an important question to ask ?


traditionally speaking very few Military leaders have dabbled with politics ....majority of them happy with ceremonial posts such as governors etc .

There are going to be many implications for having military person as defense minister ...especially ambitious person like VK singh ...
I hope it will spell good time for Defense ministry which is reeling under indecisiveness of Mr AK Antony who is more worried about his Clean image rather than our defense preparedness .

But we need to strengthen institutions also rather than just depend on good individuals ...because individuals come and go ...but institutions stays !



Robert Vadra should be a commerce minister ...!

This Division of Power is for the Mango people of Banana Republic !

You're right a out strengthening institutions. However I think the answer to your question of why India is still yet to have someone from a defence background in 67 years is many fold. 1) defence personal throughout their entire adult life adhere to a strict apolitical belief so it is no surprise that post-retirement these ideals spill over. 2) to get to a high ministerial postion (and this is true in most nations) one has to be a career politican and have the contacts and know-how to get ahead in the poltical sphere, naturally defence personal are not going to have this. 3) most defence personal probably don't have poltical aspirations themselves and this is reflected in their career choice (the military) so aren't likely to seek any political office post-retirement.

Most democracies don't have former defence personal at ministerial level and not in a defence minister postion- of course there will be exceptions but it is not the norm per se. Of course I would like to see a few defence personal male their mark on the Indian poltical class because these guys have got to be the very best and brightest to be where they are and many of the skills and training and especially their morals and discipline would be very welcome in India.

 

[Puchtoon]

Here is My Analysis :

AP :2
Assam:5
Bihar:18-20(if lalu goes jail) else 16
CG:8
GOA:2
GUJ:22-24(Modi as PM)
Haryana:3
HP:3
JK:6
KN:12(tactical alliance with yeddy or jds)
Kerala:1(modi eyeing at 6 seats)
MP:22
MH:13
Orrisa:1
Punjab:2
Raj:19(Reverse of last time)
TN:1
UP:38
UK:3
WB:1

Union T:6(Delhi)+3=9

===185-191

But he was the most charismatic leader BJP ever had ....basically he was instrumental in attracting NON BJP voters like me to vote for BJP !!!

Thanks for your link ...I will read it thoroughly and then post reply ....

Doesn't matter ,his popularity was 42% in 2004 still BJP lost.

Modi expresses the anger/decisiveness which is required ,Atal was more I will give you full time stable government (which was people not sure with BJP at that time)

 

[Puchtoon]

If there is a WAVE ,you can also see some unexpected results(200 seats ).

Most crucial thing:SWEEP UP

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/if-modi-wants-to-be-pm-he-has-to-win-up-hands-down-1040451.html

 

[Indo-guy]

You're right a out strengthening institutions. However I think the answer to your question of why India is still yet to have someone from a defence background in 67 years is many fold. 1) defence personal throughout their entire adult life adhere to a strict apolitical belief so it is no surprise that post-retirement these ideals spill over. 2) to get to a high ministerial postion (and this is true in most nations) one has to be a career politican and have the contacts and know-how to get ahead in the poltical sphere, naturally defence personal are not going to have this. 3) most defence personal probably don't have poltical aspirations themselves and this is reflected in their career choice (the military) so aren't likely to seek any political office post-retirement.

Most democracies don't have former defence personal at ministerial level and not in a defence minister postion- of course there will be exceptions but it is not the norm per se. Of course I would like to see a few defence personal male their mark on the Indian poltical class because these guys have got to be the very best and brightest to be where they are and many of the skills and training and especially their morals and discipline would be very welcome in India.

Army having been remained deeply apolitical has been great advantage ....looking at the situation in our neighborhood ...it's quite a relief ...

Well democratic traditions has been so deep ...that one of the largest army with several mercurial leaders and yet none of the military leaders ever had aspirations of grabbing power despite being lead by some of the weakest leaders ....

All thanks to our deeper democratic traditions where army remained obedient and subservient to the interests of nation always !!!

So as you say ...this trait must have contributed towards alienation of military leaders from political main stream ...

Yet it is difficult to believe that Indian democracy which boasts political leaders from virtually all strata of life ( although majority political leaders are lawyers ) ...kept military leaders away ....
I still find it difficult to reconcile that in 60 years there was not a single military leader who could find place in Indian political system ... I think Maj Gen. BC Khandury is one glaring exception ....But then Uttaranchal is a state with military background in virtually every household ...

So this exception is well justified ....

 

[Indo-guy]

Here is My Analysis :

AP :2
Assam:5
Bihar:18-20(if lalu goes jail) else 16
CG:8
GOA:2
GUJ:22-24(Modi as PM)
Haryana:3
HP:3
JK:6
KN:12(tactical alliance with yeddy or jds)
Kerala:1(modi eyeing at 6 seats)
MP:22
MH:13
Orrisa:1
Punjab:2
Raj:19(Reverse of last time)
TN:1
UP:38
UK:3
WB:1

Union T:6(Delhi)+3=9

===185-191



Doesn't matter ,his popularity was 42% in 2004 still BJP lost.

Modi expresses the anger/decisiveness which is required ,Atal was more I will give you full time stable government (which was people not sure with BJP at that time)

You give BJP 38 in UP ....that is really exaggeration ...I do not believe it !!!

 

[Indo-guy]

If there is a WAVE ,you can also see some unexpected results(200 seats ).

Most crucial thing:SWEEP UP

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/if-modi-wants-to-be-pm-he-has-to-win-up-hands-down-1040451.html

I agree even swing of 2 % can change results of election quite dramatically ...

I read the analysis on Minhaj Merchant blog ..and I agree totally !

 

[Puchtoon]

You give BJP 38 in UP ....that is really exaggeration ...I do not believe it !!!

We can Agree to Disagree !

But most poles suggest BJP %(even modi haters are admitting it ) is rising in UP as Corrupt Mayawati just gone ,Congress on ICU and akhilesh gov's on malgovernance .

BJP as per poles is at around 20% ,if there is a swing ,Polarization (West UP)+Development +Modis OBC card you can see a shift of 6-7% which can easily bring BJP 35-40 seats .

P.S IF BJP remains at 10-20 in UP,there are gone and winner will be Mullayam(3rd front)

 

[That Guy]

Well, good luck to all parties. Pakistan will no doubt be watching these elections closely.

 

[Puchtoon]

Well, good luck to all parties. Pakistan will no doubt be watching these elections closely.

Fake tsunami gone,time for real tsunami