China top trade partner of Vietnam: Vietnamese official

[Viet]

Basically you are right, but let take a closer look and make a simple analysis. Some of biggest export items from Vietnam are:

1. Mobile phones: almost all components are imported from China and no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. Components from other countries, aside from China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan (some still from the US) are almost non existent, and even many so-called electronic equipment made-in-A,B,C countries are actually assembled with components from these 4 countries. Developing such complex manufacturing chains will take decades, even in fast-changing countries like China or Taiwan, not to mention about their excellent workforce quality.

2. Garment and clothes: made with textiles and components imported from China, and again, no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. For example, China produces around 60% of polyester worldwide, and quality of its textiles are top-notched.

3. Leather goods: again, with leather imported from China. Can any other country replace them. I guess not, even in next 100 years. China have temperate climate, which is good for leather. India, for most of its parts, do not have such luxury to produce high-quality leather. Other are too small and too far away, or too expensive to compete.

4. Electronic products: again, with components from China, Taiwan or Korea, like the item 1..

yes and no. I believe you missed the point. it is NOT about stopping our trades, but it is about reducing our overreliance on China, as the main supplier of many things, or things you mentioned. it is all about increasing our trades with America, Japan, Korea, EU and other partners. it is about developing our industries at home. sure, it won´t happen overnight. But I don´t think it will take 20 years or 100 years as you estimated.

what we need is to develop a supporting industry, among other things. Continuing importing stuffs from China, just because they are available in mass, won´t bring us forward in the long run. China started from zero, didn´t she?

take Mobile phones. since Samsung invests big in VN, many other Korean component suppliers followed Samsung settling factories nearby. many other Viet companies suddenly appear on the scene, delivering components to Samsung.

a good article:

Post-TPP period Vietnam likely to become world’s export center

 

[AViet]

yes and no. I believe you missed the point. it is NOT about stopping our trades, but it is about reducing our overreliance on China, as the main supplier of many things, or things you mentioned. it is all about increasing our trades with America, Japan, Korea, EU and other partners. it is about developing our industries at home. sure, it won´t happen overnight. But I don´t think it will take 20 years or 100 years as you estimated.

what we need is to develop a supporting industry, among other things. Continuing importing stuffs from China, just because they are available in mass, won´t bring us forward in the long run. China started from zero, didn´t she?

take Mobile phones. since Samsung invests big in VN, many other Korean component suppliers followed Samsung settling factories nearby. many other Viet companies suddenly appear on the scene, delivering components to Samsung.

a good article:

Post-TPP period Vietnam likely to become world’s export center

Surely I hope so. Just wait and see. But I am not overly optimistic about TPP as many Vietnamese members here do, although I fully support it.

 

[Tiqiu]

Basically you are right, but let take a closer look and make a simple analysis. Some of biggest export items from Vietnam are:

1. Mobile phones: almost all components are imported from China and no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. Components from other countries, aside from China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan (some still from the US) are almost non existent, and even many so-called electronic equipment made-in-A,B,C countries are actually assembled with components from these 4 countries. Developing such complex manufacturing chains will take decades, even in fast-changing countries like China or Taiwan, not to mention about their excellent workforce quality.

2. Garment and clothes: made with textiles and components imported from China, and again, no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. For example, China produces around 60% of polyester worldwide, and quality of its textiles are top-notched.

3. Leather goods: again, with leather imported from China. Can any other country replace them. I guess not, even in next 100 years. China have temperate climate, which is good for leather. India, for most of its parts, do not have such luxury to produce high-quality leather. Other are too small and too far away, or too expensive to compete.

4. Electronic products: again, with components from China, Taiwan or Korea, like the item 1..

China started and modernised many industries some 30 years ago with exactly what you are describing. But if you are smart, which I don't doubt about, you will find your edge, or comparative advantage as Adam Smith would call it.

 

[Viet]

Surely I hope so. Just wait and see. But I am not overly optimistic about TPP as many Vietnamese members here do, although I fully support it.

actually TPP is a risky bet. just not many people realize it. not only the pact requires VN to open the domestic market, but open to free worker unions (in a basically socialist country, ruled by a communist party) and free flows of money and goods. with the risk, our uncompetitive domestic companies can go down because highly efficient western companies will flood our market with their goods and services.

 

[Tiqiu]

actually TPP is a risky bet. just not many people realize it. not only the pact requires VN to open the domestic market, but open to free worker unions (in a basically socialist country, ruled by a communist party) and free flows of money and goods. with the risk, our uncompetitive domestic companies can go down because highly efficient western companies will flood our market with their goods and services.

Bingo.
That is way you are the only country in the pact asking for a 20 years grace time. The tricky part is any lawsuit will be conducted in Washington under US jurisdiction, your government can be suited by the corporations.

 

[Viet]

Bingo.
That is way you are the only country in the pact asking for a 20 years grace time. The tricky part is any lawsuit will be conducted in Washington under US jurisdiction, your government can be suited by the corporations.

I don´t know how many times I read such wrong statement.
No. TPP is not under US jurisdiction, and surely our government can be sued by the corporations. including yours. if you violate the rules. such as against WTO.

here is the full text of TPP, the part of dispute settlement.

Summary of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement | United States Trade Representative

28. Dispute Settlement

The Dispute Settlement chapter is intended to allow Parties to expeditiously address disputes between them over implementation of the TPP. TPP Parties will make every attempt to resolve disputes through cooperation and consultation and encourage the use of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms when appropriate. When this is not possible, TPP Parties aim to have these disputes resolved through impartial, unbiased panels. The dispute settlement mechanism created in this chapter applies across the TPP, with few specific exceptions. The public in each TPP Party will be able to follow proceedings, since submissions made in disputes will be made available to the public, hearings will be open to the public unless the disputing Parties otherwise agree, and the final report presented by panels will also be made available to the public. Panels will consider requests from non-governmental entities located in the territory of any disputing Party to provide written views regarding the dispute to panels during dispute settlement proceedings.

Should consultations fail to resolve an issue, Parties may request establishment of a panel, which would be established within 60 days after the date of receipt of a request for consultations or 30 days after the date of receipt of a request related to perishable goods. Panels will be composed of three international trade and subject matter experts independent of the disputing Parties, with procedures available to ensure that a panel can be composed even if a Party fails to appoint a panelist within a set period of time. These panelists will be subject to a code of conduct to ensure the integrity of the dispute settlement mechanism. They will present an initial report to the disputing Parties within 150 days after the last panelist is appointed or 120 days in cases of urgency, such as cases related to perishable goods. The initial report will be confidential, to enable Parties to offer comments. The final report must be presented no later than 30 days after the presentation of the initial report and must be made public within 15 days, subject to the protection of any confidential information in the report.

To maximize compliance, the Dispute Settlement chapter allows for the use of trade retaliation (e.g., suspension of benefits), if a Party found not to have complied with its obligations fails to bring itself into compliance with its obligations. Before use of trade retaliation, a Party found in violation can negotiate or arbitrate a reasonable period of time in which to remedy the breach.

 

[Blue Marlin]

china is playing it smart. vietnam's policy to china is agressive due to the scs but at the same time it being agressive to it's largest trading partner. vietnam is needs to get its priorities straight. does it want to be come a pawn on the chess board or does it want to makes its own decisions. i think we all know the answer.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Basically you are right, but let take a closer look and make a simple analysis. Some of biggest export items from Vietnam are:

1. Mobile phones: almost all components are imported from China and no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. Components from other countries, aside from China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan (some still from the US) are almost non existent, and even many so-called electronic equipment made-in-A,B,C countries are actually assembled with components from these 4 countries. Developing such complex manufacturing chains will take decades, even in fast-changing countries like China or Taiwan, not to mention about their excellent workforce quality.

2. Garment and clothes: made with textiles and components imported from China, and again, no one can replace them, even in next 20 years. For example, China produces around 60% of polyester worldwide, and quality of its textiles are top-notched.

3. Leather goods: again, with leather imported from China. Can any other country replace them. I guess not, even in next 100 years. China have temperate climate, which is good for leather. India, for most of its parts, do not have such luxury to produce high-quality leather. Other are too small and too far away, or too expensive to compete.

4. Electronic products: again, with components from China, Taiwan or Korea, like the item 1..

TPP doesnt mean VN will stop using CN raw materials. Thats why VN allow CN investors to set up their garment factories in VN, but those factories must use VN worker, not illegal Cnese workers.

So, CN workers will lose jobs when TPP come out...and when the number of jobless CNese pple reach to Red line...you know what will happen to CN, right.

Oh, seems you need bag, can import from China

And high? how high? can give us a firm figure, we mark it, if you fail, don't forget to broadcast you bagging you head

Just wait till TPP come out in 2018,lets see what will happen in 2020, why so haste ??

 

[rott]

china is playing it smart. vietnam's policy to china is agressive due to the scs but at the same time it being agressive to it's largest trading partner. vietnam is needs to get its priorities straight. does it want to be come a pawn on the chess board or does it want to makes its own decisions. i think we all know the answer.

You know what they say about when a husband and a wife fight? Never take sides of either because they will get back together and if you support supposedly the husband and once they make up, the wife will hate your guts and have grudges always.
I feel the US is trying to play the role of a supporter here. It supports Vietnam for now, but what if Vietnam and China kisses and makes up?
China will hate the US always and carry grudges. The same can be said if US supports China, but it's very unlikely.
US is playing the mother in law role trying to support her daughter (Vietnam).

 

[Carlosa]

yes and no. I believe you missed the point. it is NOT about stopping our trades, but it is about reducing our overreliance on China, as the main supplier of many things, or things you mentioned. it is all about increasing our trades with America, Japan, Korea, EU and other partners. it is about developing our industries at home. sure, it won´t happen overnight. But I don´t think it will take 20 years or 100 years as you estimated.

what we need is to develop a supporting industry, among other things. Continuing importing stuffs from China, just because they are available in mass, won´t bring us forward in the long run. China started from zero, didn´t she?

take Mobile phones. since Samsung invests big in VN, many other Korean component suppliers followed Samsung settling factories nearby. many other Viet companies suddenly appear on the scene, delivering components to Samsung.

a good article:

Post-TPP period Vietnam likely to become world’s export center

That's a really good article bro, it clearly shows how foreign companies are rushing to Vietnam to set up production of the raw materials and supplies needed for the textile industries which is precisely the area where Vietnam was weak. We can expect that the same will happen to some degree in other industrial sectors.

Also, Vietnam unveiled massive investment incentives for foreign companies that come to invest in supporting industries, so its just a matter of time and not as long as some people think.

Add to that the fact that Vietnam produces a very high number of university graduates every year, many of which can't find a job in their specialty, so the qualified labor part is also ready.

 

[Viet]

That's a really good article bro, it clearly shows how foreign companies are rushing to Vietnam to set up production of the raw materials and supplies needed for the textile industries which is precisely the area where Vietnam was weak. We can expect that the same will happen to some degree in other industrial sectors.

Also, Vietnam unveiled massive investment incentives for foreign companies that come to invest in supporting industries, so its just a matter of time and not as long as some people think.

Add to that the fact that Vietnam produces a very high number of university graduates every year, many of which can't find a job in their specialty, so the qualified labor part is also ready.

the next logical step for us is copying the success of garment and textile industry to other fields as automobile, electronics and machinery. otherwise we are stuck in low income group, not moving forward.

 

[Viet]

china is playing it smart. vietnam's policy to china is agressive due to the scs but at the same time it being agressive to it's largest trading partner. vietnam is needs to get its priorities straight. does it want to be come a pawn on the chess board or does it want to makes its own decisions. i think we all know the answer.

we try to balance trades among all partners. it is not an aggression policy. all just for practical purposes. as for now, CN will remain for foreseeable future our biggest trade partner. though the growth rate will be lower a bit. lowering a potential Chinese economic blackmail. or as you say: being as pawn. I hope America will replace CN as biggest trading partner in some time. I guess you are chinese? here is the news of the day: bilateral trades VN-CN will hit $100 billion this year end, and we will become the biggest trade partner of China in the ASEAN.

China, Vietnam to fulfill trade target of $100b in 2016 - Business - Chinadaily.com.cn

 

[Blue Marlin]

we try to balance trades among all partners. it is not an aggression policy. all just for practical purposes. as for now, CN will remain for foreseeable future our biggest trade partner. though the growth rate will be lower a bit. lowering a potential Chinese economic blackmail. or as you say: being as pawn. I hope America will replace CN as biggest trading partner in some time. I guess you are chinese? here is the news of the day: bilateral trades VN-CN will hit $100 billion this year end, and we will become the biggest trade partner of China in the ASEAN.

China, Vietnam to fulfill trade target of $100b in 2016 - Business - Chinadaily.com.cn

well from what i know the chinese care about money. and when most of the money comes through the scs then its obivous it needs defending. who is the united states gonna replace china with as the largest trading partner?

 

[AViet]

TPP doesnt mean VN will stop using CN raw materials. Thats why VN allow CN investors to set up their garment factories in VN, but those factories must use VN worker, not illegal Cnese workers.

So, CN workers will lose jobs when TPP come out...and when the number of jobless CNese pple reach to Red line...you know what will happen to CN, right.


Just wait till TPP come out in 2018,lets see what will happen in 2020, why so haste ??

It is hard to see the future, but from my experience, it will not be easy (the transfer of garment and textile factories from China to Vietnam). Garment making is a low tech industry, while textile is a high-tech one. Yes, it is, if you have deep knowledge about it.

Without textile making, it is hard to Vietnam to move forward in this industry.

 

[Viva_Viet]

It is hard to see the future, but from my experience, it will not be easy (the transfer of garment and textile factories from China to Vietnam). Garment making is a low tech industry, while textile is a high-tech one. Yes, it is, if you have deep knowledge about it.

Without textile making, it is hard to Vietnam to move forward in this industry.

Sir, U feel hard to see the future cos u dont study Marxizm properly, so u dont see if TPP is ratiffied in 2018(90% TPP will be ratiffied), then it will make RMB fall to half in 2024, CN economy collapse in 2028.

Every one still remember in Jan,2015 Vnese predicted correctly the fall of RMB while pple believed RMB "is one of the most stable currency in the world".

So, study Marx again now.Thats it.