Yemen and military intervention by Pakistan:
The middle east is going through trying time at this moment. Like many others, a new issue that has surfaced in the muslim world---an insurgency in Yemen---an overthrow of a legitimate government by armed tribesmen who have weapons supplied by the Iranians and being trained and assisted by them as well.
The nations of Saudi Arabia and Arab Emirates have asked for direct assistance of Pakistan's military. Incidently, this request was denied by the Pakistani parliament, which seemed ill-informed about the core matter of the problem, the significance of pakistan military presence in that region and other things related to the issue.
Simply put---the minister of state was ill prepared to describe what was needed from Pakistan---he failed to make the right presentation and Pakistani politicians were running scared to man up and take charge of the issue.
Here is an assessment of the situation.
This opportunity was a golden moment for Pakistan to extend its influence beyond its borders. Pakistan must look forward to deploy at least two corps strengths of troops---infantry and armor---a two to three squadrons of air force and two frigates in the region in due time with funding from the states in need.
Pakistan has a plethora of of senior / mid range officers and NCO's available who have retired after 25 years of service---these are still young men by western standards to serve a few years more.
Pakistan can make a one to two division strength available from existing troops and start recruiting and training the rest on a fast track. A possible cantonment build at Gwadar port that could be the launchpad and training ground for new recruits and officers to be deployed .
Obviously---the countries in need would be taking care of the expenses, for the recruitment, training, man material, weapons and armament, armor, air craft and naval vessels.
The reason this needs to be done is that the power positioning of the muslim world has drastically changed in the last few years.
The muslim power has depleted down to 3 major powers in the region that stand on one side ie Turkey,
Egypt and Pakistan with their benefactors in Qatar, Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran on the other side.
Sadly Iraq is gone---so is Syria and so is Libya from the picture. These nations do not present themselves to be nations of any substance at this time. Civil war, insurgency, terrorist occupation has taken hold of these nations and they are facing destruction. Nations like Algeria and Morocco are just standing by with not much to offer..
Taking the example of Yemen, a nation that had an established government that was overthrown by an ethnic group creates a lack of stability for the nation itself and the neighboring countries as well.
The insurgency resulted in the defeat of government troops, they ran away, the rebels came in to replace them but not in all cities---which created a vacuum that got filled in with terrorists organizations like the al- qaeda and isis taking charge on a fast trak.
Once these organizations get into the cities, it gets very easy for them to hide amongst the public and create havoc and force terror in the society. These groups have learned to move at a lightening pace and take charge of their targets while legitimate governments are busy talking about taking legal recourse and action against them through united nations etc.
Pretty much everything is lost by the time an arranged military response is managed.
As the rules of the game have changed, so the number of teams in the playing field have changed as well( govt forces---anti govt forces ---multiple terrorist groups ), it becomes imperative for nations like Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt to play a pro-active role under these circumstances.
The mindset of the military's leadership needs to be ready for action and be prepared for move in and be ready for a pre-emptive strikes on a very short notice.
The explanation of “ there is seemingly no current threat ” should not be taken as an answer for the problem---because this issue is an opportunistic problem---. The insurgents would see a weakness or create a situation to create a conflict, the terrorists would take advantage of two forces fighting each other and move into the void created.
For that very reason, a well equipped force already deployed for the purpose and ready for action at a moments notice is the right and correct approach to meet and stop any un-called for problems head on. A ready and pro-active force in the region would prevent such a thing from happening in the first place.
If Pakistan is able to convince the needy parties to bear the expense for at least 2 corps strength of infantry and armor, air force and navy, it will give Pakistan an extra influence in the region of friendly countries where they are deployed, with the induction of Gwadar port, these troops will be an immense asset. In the time of an emergency in Pakistan---like an aggression from India, we will be able to access 2 / 3rd the numbers of these troops to strengthen our flanks on a moments notice.
Would it not be nice to have 20-30,000 troops available to you in addition to your regular service personal in an emergency.
The good thing about this scenario is that in an emergency---Pakistan would not be deploying troops from its own stock---which will eventually create problems in our own backyard if such was the case as it would deplete the number of our troops in needed places.
We will be creating jobs for our men, increasing the strength of our forces, projecting the position of Pakistan in front of the world in a positive manner, managing and maintaining peace in the region and taking our rightful position as the military leader of the muslim world.
Pakistan must not shirk away from its calling. As a capable military---it is our moral obligation to help our less capable brethren when they call for our assistance and when they are paying for the services rendered, it makes the cause holier.
Iran had been waiting for a long time to stir up trouble in this region. The sickness of Late King Abdullah gave it the opportunity to make the move and the time it took from the sickness, to passing away and then the transition of the new king coming into power was more than enough for Iran to move in.
As is obvious now that Iran supplied the insurgents with weapons, they supplied them with the trainers and possibly operators as well. Saudi Arabia had claimed of Iranian arms being shipped into yemen and it asked for Pakistani navy's assistance as well.
It looks evident from the reaction of Iranian navy ships turning back once confronted by the U S battle group that they must be loaded with weapons for the rebels.
Just yesterday, Iranian navy moved onto the Marshall Island merchant navy ship and confiscated it in en seas. Looking at the actions of the Iranian navy---it seems like that the Pakistani navy would have to step up its presence in the area.
Pakistan navy would also need to acquire more surface fleet, like the chinese 054 class frigate as for now with additional F 22 type frigates as well.
The terrorist interference and insurgency scenario in this region will happen at a lightening fast speed and for that reason it is imperative that Pakistani military takes the initiative of starting to build a corps strength of troops at least for Saudi Arabia and another corps strength for the Emirates so that in times of need it is already in place as a deterrent---.
God bless Pakistan.
Sincerely,
MK
