Y-20 heavy transport aircraft News & Discussions

[obj 705A]

So I did some quick googling to find out what is the size of China's air cargo fleet, "This statistic shows the size of air cargo freighters fleet in China in 2017 [China has 180 freighters according to this website in 2017] with a forecast for 2037. By 2037, China plans to have around 740 freighters in its cargo airplane fleet".

https://www.statista.com/statistics/913987/china-air-cargo-freighter-fleet-size/

I don't know how reliable this website is but since China is #1 trading it makes sense for to have this much civilian cargo.
Eventually these will need replacement.

 

[Deino]

Not exaggerated at all, that was not Minnie Chan that said "more than 1000 will be needed", that was the head of AVIC who said that, also he didn't include exports in this number:
"The manager expects that China will need at least 1,000 of the huge aircraft".

....

I know once again my concern are not well received but IMO 1000 is way overestimated and even if the head of AVIC is more knowledgeable than me, but he also gas a duty to express faith and optimism.

Just to set this number in context... not even the Ilyushin Il-76 an undeniable successful project did not reach these numbers.

As such I indeed expect a few hundreds, but still - at best - in the lower 200-numbers.
Anyway, we'll see.

 

[obj 705A]

I know once again my concern are not well received but IMO 1000 is way overestimated and even if the head of AVIC is more knowledgeable than me, but he also gas a duty to express faith and optimism.

Just to set this number in context... not even the Ilyushin Il-76 an undeniable successful project did not reach these numbers.

As such I indeed expect a few hundreds, but still - at best - in the lower 200-numbers.
Anyway, we'll see.

The Russians/Soviets produced a total of 960 Il-76 over the course of several years, I don't know how many of these were used by Russia (both civilian and military) but if I'm not mistaken most of the Il-76 were owned by the Russians and a smaller number for export.

Y-20 will be far much more successful than the Il-76 why? Because the Y-20 (including civilian variant) will be operated by a far much bigger trading nation (that is China) than the USSR ever was let alone Russia, over the course of several decades from now China will need hundreds upon hundreds of civilian air freighters not just to transport cargo but also to replace older ones, I suppose you didn't see my last post before you commented because my previous post was just 1 minute earlier than yours.. China may acquire up to 740 civilian cargo airplanes by 2037, why buy them from Boeing when they can buy the Y-20?

 

[lcloo]

My interpretation of the given statement of 1,000 Y20s are total production over the lifeline of over several decades, possibly from 30 to 50 years, with later variants replacing early variants over times. This figure would include all variants from transport, tankers and others.

Average annual production could be around 2 to 3 dozens for period of several decades.

 

[Beast]

Honestly the UK and France are irrelevant , note that AVIC only compared to what the US & Russia have, that is what they are looking up to according to AVIC, I don't know what is the total lifting capacity of Russia, but the US military has a total of 900 aerial refuelers & large cargo transporters, I didn't include the civilian transporters of the US (if they have them).

Russia has more than few dozen of An-124, AN-22, their payload outload even the Y-20. Not to mention hundred of IL-76 and modernized IL-476. What they lack will be equivalent to China Y-8F and Y-9 which can save more fuel and more economical if you are lifting only less than 20 tons of cargo.

In fact, Russia continent lifting capacity may even outstrip the USAF.

 

[Figaro]

Y-20U

 

[vi-va]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1284383975750991872

Haha, my observation had a point.

I see 2 probe-and-drogue refueling like IL-76 and 1 Flying boom like KC-135 Stratotanker, KC-10 Extender, KC-46 Pegasus.

Is it possible Y-20 can have both? That's huge bonus.

 

[LKJ86]

Via @航空工业一飞院 from Weixin

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[Deino]

With Y-20A 11155 - aka no. 15 - assigned to the 12th Air Regiment, 4th Transport Division at Chengdu/Qionglai the so far highest individual number was spotted.

(Image via @秋秋Q30 from Weibo)

 

[LKJ86]

Via @摇篮里的航海家 from Weibo

 

[LKJ86]

Via @西部空天 from Weixin

 

[LKJ86]

 

[Figaro]

Is there any news on the Y-20 AWAC variant?

 

[LKJ86]

Via CCTV and @沉默的山羊 from Weibo

 

[JSCh]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292730487102832641