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With Chabahar Text Finalised, India’s Dream of a Road to Afghanistan Gathers Speed

If Pakistan is playing its cards right it is well on track to cause a massive financial shock to India.

Has Pakistan been liberal in giving transit trade concession to India. the opportunity of Chahbar would still lurk around and act as a negotiating fulcrum to extract more discounts and concessions from Pakistan...

If Pakistan suddenly liberalizes after multi-billion dollar investments in Chahbar it would cause sudden erosion of business and market share at Chahbar as well as massive financial shock to India.

There is a suspicious side to this whole deal that Iran is tracking India for investment in its port rather than doing it itself.

And always remember Iran is under watchful eyes of sanction axe anytime which would have massive implications for both India and Pakistan.

Pakistan will earn during sanctions time on Iran while India will lose.

A port needs two way traffic to make it business competitive for international maritime freighters. Now there is not much Afghanistan and Iran can export so you are looking at ships unloading cargo and returning empty. Which would raise the cost of freight to this port..Just to give you an example of how cost can escalate..

Dubai and Dammam seaport are in close proximity to each other yet it cost half as much than Dammam to ship containers to Dubai. Shipping is a game of economies of scale...volume up..cost down...

China’s existing sea route passes through the risky South China Sea, Pacific Rim, the Strait of Malacca and Sri Lanka, and Chinese vessels have to cruise about 10,000 km to reach the trading partners in the region. But the Gwadar Port will reduce the sea distance to 2,500 km instead of 10,000 km and land distance for Kashgar to 2,800 because Kashgar is 4,500 km from the main Chinese port, the port of Shanghai, while Gwadar is 2800 km from Kashgar. Resultantly, it will not only save time, but also millions of dollars for China.

Your logic would have held some base had it not been for the fairly okay performance of Indian economy as opposed to others in the past year and more .... if India manages to get the domestic politics lined up (a very likely scenario) then irrespective of what you may wish for, the Indian market and Indian economy is too big a magnet to forget right now. But that - has the rider of own politicians not doing something stupid to finish Indian economy for now.

When this port will be fully operational?

It is in progress. The timeline for fully operationalization is dependent on signing of the draft treaty. Should be by end of this year as far as I can make out from open sources. Although development move has already started.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...tract-in-mumbai-next-month/article8357438.ece
 
Your logic would have held some base had it not been for the fairly okay performance of Indian economy as opposed to others in the past year and more .... if India manages to get the domestic politics lined up (a very likely scenario) then irrespective of what you may wish for, the Indian market and Indian economy is too big a magnet to forget right now. But that - has the rider of own politicians not doing something stupid to finish Indian economy for now.

Indian economy has a few red flags...

It is built on cheaper manufacturing for export at large - A world cannot forever run on cheap labour theory.
And with shifting economic tides it is becoming more competitive to manufacture in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Unlike China, India has failed to produce a mass manufacturing economics and supply chain.

India does not have much consumption for its own production..
 
Indian economy has a few red flags...

It is built on cheaper manufacturing for export at large - A world cannot forever run on cheap labour theory.
And with shifting economic tides it is becoming more competitive to manufacture in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Unlike China, India has failed to produce a mass manufacturing economics and supply chain.

India does not have much consumption for its own production..

1. It is not an export oriented country but mainly services

2. Cheap labour theory works on india as india still a developing countries so to afford many masses

3. Red flag ! India is the fastest growing major economy in the world

4. India retails market is expanding and now approx 600 billion dollar

Whatever you mentioned, its the reverse for indian case
 
Indian economy has a few red flags...

It is built on cheaper manufacturing for export at large - A world cannot forever run on cheap labour theory.
And with shifting economic tides it is becoming more competitive to manufacture in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Unlike China, India has failed to produce a mass manufacturing economics and supply chain.

India does not have much consumption for its own production..

Totally wrong. What you have quoted as our red flags are in fact true for the Chinese Economy. The indices are there to see. The decreased demand from Europe and US has hurt China. Indian economy never reached the large manufacturing base required to export in any credible numbers. The basic shift has taken from urban to rural market, a market that has seen phenomenal growth for FMCG companies like HUL. Had we been export oriented, we would have been in doldrums. Our economy is still primarily internally fuelled rather than export oriented. Hence your contention may not hold true.
 
The province of China that borders Pakistan and provinces of China that borders that province along with their bordering provinces cover 54% of China's landmass and have only 6% of population because they are mostly deserts, mountains, and high altitude plateau. There are no consumers in provinces to develop them.

XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. People who think that CPEC would be used for trade with China has not fathmoned how big China is. Even Takla Makan deser which lies beyond Kashi is larger than Pakistan.

Apart from that most of cities in Western China are farther from Islamabad than European capital by road. Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is 4900 Km from Islamabad by road, Ningxia (Yinchuan) is 4300 Km, Choquinin is 5000 Km, Ghuzihou (gulyang) is 5500Km away, Yunan(Kuming) is 5900Km, and Sichuan (Chengdu) is 5000Km away from Islamabad.

Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.

CPEC is nothing but an insurance policy of China.



Actually I done some off the hand calculations.

This is cost comparison for viability of CPEC.


Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km

5121 Km - Distance from Shanghai to Kashgar

Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

2747 Km - Distance from Kashgar to Gwadar


Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.

http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf

Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf

These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.

This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway World's 10 dangerous roads | CNN Travel ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47

Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41

So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88

Now let destination port be Dubai.

Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU

http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10

Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93

Twenty-foot equivalent unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)


BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787

I Have Already Beaten Your Arguments To Death In My Post


https://defence.pk/threads/chabahar-vs-gwadar.374467/page-16#post-8977273


And I Really Don't Know What You Are Trying To Prove By Copy Pasting Distances
 
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Negotiators from Afghanistan, India and Iran have reached agreement on the contours of a deal that will turn an Iranian port near Pakistan into the hub through which all roads to the region from India will run.

An Iranian guard looks on at oil docks at the port of Kalantari in the city of Chabahar, 300km (186 miles) east of the Strait of Hormuz. Credit: REUTERS/RAHEB HOMAVANDI

New Delhi: The 13-year-old proposal of a trade route from India to Iran, and Afghanistan and also Central Asia – bypassing Pakistan – is now within grasping distance of becoming reality.

The three countries have finished negotiations on the text of the trilateral transport and transit pact that will serve as the legal framework to operate trade corridors with the Iranian port of Chabahar as its main hub.

“The three technical negotiating teams finalised the text yesterday (Monday, April 11),” Afghanistan’s ambassador to India, Shaida Abdali told The Wire on Tuesday evening. “This is a very, very crucial agreement for Afghanistan. The opening of this corridor will help us to fully reach our potential, give us a new trade route. This is a completely new chapter”.

Monday was a very long day for Indian, Iranian and Afghanistan negotiators as they laboured to finish the text. They finally dispersed after shaking hands at 9.30 in the night. The text was finalized at the second meeting of the expert group. Their first meeting had been in Tehran last September.

“We are talking about the dates for the signing, which will likely take place in Iran,” he said.

Asked who would sign the agreement, Abdali said the preference was for this to happen “at the highest level possible”. “We hope to sign it within the next two months,” he added.

Incidentally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Iran in the first half of this year.

Sources said that the agreement will encompass the trade and transport corridors which will link Mumbai to Chabahar and Afghanistan, via Zahedan. However, the pact has not specified the routes, which will be decided later.

As per diplomatic sources, negotiators had to overcome last moment hurdles over visa issues.

To New Delhi and Kabul, Pakistan’s development of Gwadar port with China and continued reluctance to give transit rights to India for Afghanistan and Central Asia, gives a certain strategic sheen to Chabahar. In 2014-15, India-Afghanistan bilateral trade stood at $684 million, which both capitals feel is far below potential.

While India and Iran had first spoken about Chabahar in 2002, the first trilateral meeting with Afghanistan was held in 2003. In 2004, Ashok Leyland Project services and two state-owned railway construction firms formed a consortium with ambitious plans for building the missing rail connectivity and developing the port. But the work never took off.

India completed the 215-kilometre Zaranj-Delaram highway in 2009, which gave land-locked Afghanistan an outlet to another sea port – thereby reducing its dependence on access to Pakistani ports.

With nearly a decade lost due to Western sanctions against Iran over the nuclear issue, there was some sign of life in the Iranian port project when a trilateral working group was set up in 2012.

Meanwhile, Iran and six world powers formally began nuclear negotiations in November 2013. It was the wake-up call required for New Delhi to remove the cobwebs over the Chabahar talks and take it forward.

When the nuclear negotiations were at the last crucial stage, shipping minister Nitin Gadkari visited visited Iran in May 2015 and signed an $85 million deal for lease of two berths which will be used as container and multi-purpose cargo terminals.

But India got a rude shock after the signing of the MoU on learning that Iran had not disclosed that the port had been leased on a long-term basis to a private firm, Arya Bandar. Both sides went back to the drawing board to draw up a new contract.

On July 9, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Hassan Rouhani met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa, Russia, which provided the required political impetus to Chabahar.

Five days days later, the foreign ministers of six nations – the P5+1 – stood together in Vienna and announced the completion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. As foreign firms rushed to Thran in anticipation of the removal of sanctions, India tried to keep pace.

Iranian foreign minister Javed Zarif travelled to India to keep up the impetus in August. External Affairs minister Sushma Swaraj will make a return visit this week – on April 16.

Meanwhile, New Delhi and Kabul were also coordinating efforts, with the project figuring large in bilateral documents released after major visits in April and December last year.

In between, the India-Iran joint commission meeting in Delhi in December kept up the pressure – with Swaraj noting that Indian participation in Chabahar will “facilitate the linking of Afghanistan and Central Asia with India”.

In January 4 this year, Afghanistan chief executive Abdullah Abdullah made a visit to the port project.

At the Raisina Dialogue last month, foreign secretary S. Jaishankar also termed the opening up of Iran as one of the “game changers” which would help India to break out towards Central Asia.

After the official lifting of the sanctions against Iran in January 2016, bilateral foreign office consultations in Delhi took the matter forward – especially as a bilateral VVIP visit was on the anvil. China’s spreading presence in Chabahar was another added incentive for New Delhi to accelerate progress.

Meanwhile, other pieces of the Chabahar puzzle were falling into place. The contract between Iran’s Arya Bander and India Ports Global Private Limited, an SPV of the Kandla and Jawaharlal Nehru port trust, was finalised and will be signed during the Maritime India summit this week. The cabinet also approved a $150 million line of credit for development of Chabahar.

This week, the minister of state for petroleum and gas, Dharmendra Pradhan went to Iran bearing gifts – or at least the promise of gifts – worth $20 billion. On April 10, he visited the Chabahar free trade zone and port and expressed interest in setting up an LNG plant and a gas cracker unit at Chabahar.

With Chabahar Text Finalised, India’s Dream of a Road to Afghanistan Gathers Speed | The Wire

Wasn't Indian members talking about this 10 years ago?
 
This is about growth potential calculation for CPEC:

Following provinces are close to CPEC

1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million

2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million

3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million

4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million

5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million

Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is. Pakistan share border with Takla Makan desert of China.

Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place,


CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China.

I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that CPEC has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.

People usually could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan.

It need to be understood that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe!

For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km)

I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.



No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km


No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km


Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km

No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital

Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km

Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.

But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km

Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km

no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km

No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km


No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km


All these Western provinces of China are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.


I could do same calculation for Chahbar too. It would take max half an hour for me, though I do not see any point as India is developing Chahbar as strategic port, rather than for financial benefits. Similar to what China is doing with Gwadar.

You Mentioned Yinchuan
Let Us Use Yinchuan and Dubai As Reference Points And Compare CPEC Route With Sea


By Using Railway Line:

Now The Most Recent Chinese Railway Freight Rate I Have Is 0.12 per KM per Ton Yuan Which At The Present Conversion Rate Is $0.02 per KM per Ton(I Would Assume That With The Fall In Oil Prices,The Chinese Would Have Decreased Rates As Well)


https://www.google.com.pk/?gws_rd=cr&ei=DblzWN66AsrXa7GMs6AE#q=convert+yuan+to+US+dollars

http://www.think-railways.com/china-railway-corp-expected-raise-freight-rates/

Now As You Have Said That 1 TEU Would Equal 21.6 Ton.

Now In China We Use The Existing Railway Network The Total Distance Would Be (Yinchuan to Turpan to Kashgar) 1932+1446=
So The Total Cost From Yinchuan Upto Kashgar Would Be

0.02 X 21.6 X 3378=$1459

Now The Rail Freight in Pakistan is Rs 0.16 per KM Per Ton For Distance Greater Than 501 Km.In Dollar Terms This Is $0.00152
http://www.commerce.gov.pk/Studies_Domestic_Commerce/study_9_transport_VOL2.pdf


Distance From Kashgar to Karachi Is 1828 KM


To Transport 1 TEU FCL From Kashgar to Karachi By Rail(Which Is In The Works), This Would Be
0.00152x21.6x1828=$60

(Now As You Have Said That Gwadar Is Not Operational Yet Although It Is But Rates Have Not Been Announced Yet So We Take Karachi.)
The Rate At Karachi is $113 per TEU
And As Per You Karachi to Dubai Costs $125 per TEU
So The Total Cost Upto Dubai Are

$1459+$60+$113+$125=$1757
I Am Going to Ignore The Costs At Dubai Port Since They Are Common For Both Routes.


The Cost To Ship 1 TEU from Yinchuan By Sea to Dubai(Minus The Cost At Dubai Port) Are
$2923


https://www.searates.com/reference/...1&container=20st&weight=1&product=0&request=&

So CPEC Route Is More Viable Than Sea Route Using Railways.And This Difference Becomes Even More When You Take Into Account Tied Up Inventory Costs Because Sea Travel Takes A Lot More Time

I Have Done A Similar Rough Calculation for Taiyuan (Shaanxi) and Dubai And While The Sea Route Is Cheaper Only By $100.And This Can Be More Than Offset By The Massive Savings In Tied Up Inventory Costs

The Point Is As We Progress Inland In China Pakistni Ports Become Competitive With Traditional Chinese Sea Routes Via Mallacca





 
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