With Chabahar Text Finalised, India’s Dream of a Road to Afghanistan Gathers Speed

[wiseone2]

Few problem:

First: Let's assume that India lose ALL of its investment in Chabhar, $20 billion investment done over a period of a decade (basically $2 Billion per year) is hardly a shock for a country like India.

Second: You assume this investment to be an investment done for financial reasons. It is not. Trade from Afghanistan and CAR would not even recoup principle, let alone make any profit. This is an strategic investment in order to make Afghanistan independent of Pakistani blackmail and give them leverage against Pakistan. A strong Afghanistan is a bigger nightmare for Pakistan than India as Afghans could potentially walk away with half of Pakistani territory; something which they would try as it would give them access to Oceans. A strong Afghanistan would result in constant terrorism in Pakistan.

Third: You are assuming that if Pakistan liberalize, India would use Pakistan for transit while Chahbar still exist. It would not simply because apart from harassment Indian truckers would face from Pakistani auxiliaries (Islamic Terrorists), transport by Truck to Afghanistan would always be costlier than Sea+Rail transport for anywhere except Easternmost part of Afghanistan. This is economics 101.

Fourth: You are assuming that Central Asian republics would prefer Gwadar over Chahbar. They do not have any advantage in doing so. Apart from the fact that distance between Gwadar/Karachi is more than that of Chahbar/Bandar Abbas, A CAR convoy headed for Gwadar/Karachi would have to pass through terrors infested Af-Pak border. This is not to say that CAR would use Chahbar for business (neither is Chahbar being built on this assumption), but that Iranian ports are not only cheaper, but also safer for business. To CAR, Gwadar does not make any economic sense.

Fifth: Like every Pakistani , you are deluded about importance of Gwadar. Your corridor ,apart from being 5000Km+ away from Chinese populated areas, also passes through impossible terrain of Karakoram. Even assuming a flat terrain, transportation cost of supplying Chinese Eastern cities from Dubai is 16 times more than cost of supplying them by Sea, and Khunjreb pass through which your corridor would be passing remain open only from May 1 to December 31. And if that was not enough, your CPEC opens in South-West corner of a Chinese province which is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, but has a population just double of Karachi. When you people go gaga over CPEC, it is better that you consult a map. Beyond Kashi lies nothingness of Takla Makan desert. Even to reach Kashi, you have to cross Kulum Shan range after crossing Karakoram range.

India sending goods to Moscow using Chahbar is more of a possibility than CPEC sending goods to China.

Sixth: Iran is gravitating towards west faster than you could say allies. It is adopting classical doublespeak of Arabs vis-a-vis West and Israel.

the only relevance of CPEC is minor. It is potential trade of Western China with Middle East. it is not a big amount. so i am not sure why it is a "game changer"

Central Asian Republics will do business with both Gwadar and Chahbahar. i do not think they will say no to either side

 

[Immortan.Joe]

I do not understand where Dubai came into picture? China has no border with Dubai..beside the route you are discussing...is just one of the CPEC routes...the final project has three routes...giving year round access..

That was for comparison as freight rate from Dubai are available.

+ All three routes have to pass through Khunjerab pass. This is lowest altitude pass accessible from Pakistani side.

+ Beyond Kashi there lies Takle-Makan desert. which is larger than whole of Pakistan. There is no population to serve using CPEC except that of Kashi and even for that you need to go over Karakoram and Kulun-Shan mountain ranges.

 

[somebozo]

We need to consult some economics here..

Load on truck and drive

VS

Load on truck, offload on port, load on ship, sail, unload from ship, re-load on trucks and finally drive..

the only relevance of CPEC is minor. It is potential trade of Western China with Middle East. it is not a big amount. so i am not sure why it is a "game changer"

Central Asian Republics will do business with both Gwadar and Chahbahar. i do not think they will say no to either side

The ambition is to develop this trade further...China is looking to transform its western region as the next economic and industrial boom...Success of China 2.0

 

[bloo]

We need to consult some economics here..

Load on truck and drive

VS

Load on truck, offload on port, load on ship, sail, unload from ship, re-load on trucks and finally drive..



The ambition is to develop this trade further...China is looking to transform its western region as the next economic and industrial boom...Success of China 2.0

@Vyom care to comment?

 

[somebozo]

That was for comparison as freight rate from Dubai are available.

+ All three routes have to pass through Khunjerab pass. This is lowest altitude pass accessible from Pakistani side.

+ Beyond Kashi there lies Takle-Makan desert. which is larger than whole of Pakistan. There is no population to serve using CPEC except that of Kashi and even for that you need to go over Karakoram and Kulun-Shan mountain ranges.

It was a stupid comparison to begin with because china would not service its own part of the country via Dubai...
Gwadar has a shorter distance than internally between South and West China...

Karzai invites Pakistani businessmen to invest in Afghanistan
Pakistan Today‎ - 6 hours ago
Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai hasinvited Pakistani businessmen to explore the ...

He said Afghanistan has the lowest taxes in the region and the Pakistani investors will get land free of cost. He was talking to a visiting business delegation led by United Business Group (UBG) Chairman and SAARC Chamber of Commerce Vice President Iftikhar Ali Malik.

While many indians see Chahbar as their hallmark of Afghan policy they forget that Afghanistan is also embarking on such connectivity project with Pakistan to Central Asia..


s a part of its development plan for its transport and communications network, Pakistan Railways has completed a feasibility study of the Chaman-Kandahar section for laying railway tracks between Pakistan and Turkmenistan through Afghanistan. The feasibility study for cost, engineering and design for the construction of a rail link from Gwadar to the existing rail network in Mastung district in Balochistan has also been finalized. The new link to Gwadar port will open up underdeveloped areas of Balochistan for development.The main aim of the venture is to connect the Central Asian republics with Pakistan Railways' network through Afghanistan.

China is going to be the beneficiary of Gwadar's most accessible international trade routes to the Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. By extending its East-West Railway from the Chinese border city of Kashi to Peshawar in Pakistan's northwest, Beijing can receive cargo to and from Gwadar along the shortest route, from Karachi to Peshawar. The rail network could also be used to supply oil from the Persian Gulf to Xinjiang. Pakistan's internal rail network can also provide China with rail access to Iran.

 

[Immortan.Joe]

the only relevance of CPEC is minor. It is potential trade of Western China with Middle East. it is not a big amount. so i am not sure why it is a "game changer"

Central Asian Republics will do business with both Gwadar and Chahbahar. i do not think they will say no to either side

The province of China that borders Pakistan and provinces of China that borders that province along with their bordering provinces cover 54% of China's landmass and have only 6% of population because they are mostly deserts, mountains, and high altitude plateau. There are no consumers in provinces to develop them.

XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. People who think that CPEC would be used for trade with China has not fathmoned how big China is. Even Takla Makan deser which lies beyond Kashi is larger than Pakistan.

Apart from that most of cities in Western China are farther from Islamabad than European capital by road. Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is 4900 Km from Islamabad by road, Ningxia (Yinchuan) is 4300 Km, Choquinin is 5000 Km, Ghuzihou (gulyang) is 5500Km away, Yunan(Kuming) is 5900Km, and Sichuan (Chengdu) is 5000Km away from Islamabad.

Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.

CPEC is nothing but an insurance policy of China.

We need to consult some economics here..

Load on truck and drive

VS

Load on truck, offload on port, load on ship, sail, unload from ship, re-load on trucks and finally drive..

Actually I done some off the hand calculations.

This is cost comparison for viability of CPEC.

Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km

5121 Km - Distance from Shanghai to Kashgar

Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

2747 Km - Distance from Kashgar to Gwadar


Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.

http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf

Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf

These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.

This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway World's 10 dangerous roads | CNN Travel ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47

Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41

So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88

Now let destination port be Dubai.

Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU

http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10

Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93

Twenty-foot equivalent unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)


BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787


Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67

Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93 which is 16 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar.

Heck Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai.

This is time viability calculation for CPEC.

Let's calculate time. In order to give CPEC some leeway, I am expecting that a Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30Kmph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.

Time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days

BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

Total time required for overland transport when your drivers and port handlers are superman = 16 days.

Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.

Calculating Container Shipping Time


This was an outlier calculation.

Let's be realistic.

Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refuelling stop.

It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashghar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account.

Let's assume that it takes only a day to transfer cargo from a Pakistani to a Chinese truck. The time spent before that Truck moves towards CHina is 9.7 Hours.

That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach SHanghai from Kashghar. ie 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days.

Now we assume that Gwadar system is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

Import Clearance Procedure -- Mehran Corporation Karachi Pakistan

Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 37 days compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca.

Even reaching border of China-Pakistan would take more time (21 days vs 15 days) than transporting a container from Dubai to remotest part of Chinese seaboard.


This is about growth potential calculation for CPEC:

Following provinces are close to CPEC

1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million

2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million

3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million

4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million

5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million

Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is. Pakistan share border with Takla Makan desert of China.

Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place,


CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China.

I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that CPEC has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.

People usually could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan.

It need to be understood that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe!

For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km)

I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.

let's do some analysis. I am calculating Islamabad so that you could get a grasp over distance as Ankara is 4400 Km away from Islamabad by road. and All distance henceforth are by road.


No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km


No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km

No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital

Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km

Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.

But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km

Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km

no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km

No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km


No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km


All these Western provinces of China are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.


I could do same calculation for Chahbar too. It would take max half an hour for me, though I do not see any point as India is developing Chahbar as strategic port, rather than for financial benefits. Similar to what China is doing with Gwadar.

 

[for truth]

Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.

I didn't understand why you mentioned distance of Islamabad with European capitals, can you explain it a bit?

Also, I remember watching a video where one pakistani (?) claimed that the eight submarines that Pakistan is buying from china was in return to what the Chinese were investing in Pakistan. That is, the Chinese power companies will make profits through power plants, while Chinese defense companies will make profits through Pakistan submarine purchase.

I don't know if these two are linked, but it sounded interesting...

 

[Immortan.Joe]

I didn't understand why you mentioned distance of Islamabad with European capitals, can you explain it a bit?

Also, I remember watching a video where one pakistani (?) claimed that the eight submarines that Pakistan is buying from china was in return to what the Chinese were investing in Pakistan. That is, the Chinese power companies will make profits through power plants, while Chinese defense companies will make profits through Pakistan submarine purchase.

I don't know if these two are linked, but it sounded interesting...

That was to give posters an idea about distance involved in trade with cities of even Western China (the one which border Pakistan).

Major cities of Western China where most of population of western China is concentrated is farther from Pakistan than even European capitals. If Pakistan-German road trade is non-existent, chances of Choquing-Pakistan trade are not very high.

The ambition is to develop this trade further...China is looking to transform its western region as the next economic and industrial boom...Success of China 2.0

You could not convert mountains, deserts, and high cold plateau into an economic powerhouse, irrespective of how hard you try.

the reason that XinXiang (province that you border) is not developed is because most of XinXiang is covered with Takla Makan desert (Desert you border) Tien Shan range; Inner Mongolia is not developed because most of Inner Mongolia is covered with Gobi desert. Quinghai is not developed because most of its area is mountainous with Kulun Shan, ALtun shan and Bayan Har shan mountain ranges. Gansu is not beveloped because its area is covered with Gobi desert and Quilian Shan mountain range.Tibet is not developed because it is a barren cold plateau.


These places have a low population density because of geographical limitations. Desert and Mountains never support high population, and this is a basic economic rule that low population areas never have high growth potential (because of less number of producers and consumers). Barring discovery of oil, Desert remains civilization backwater, irrespective of how many road you build since their population supporting capacity is limited by some very basic factors, FOOD and WATER. Even if you transport food at great cost in this area, you would still have no water to support a large settlement.


Take a look at these maps of China:

Climate map:

​

Physical map:

Another Physical map:

​

Population density map:

​

Night-sky lightening map:

​

Western provinces of China are not developed because no one live there, and could not live there because of Geography.

 

[for truth]

That was to give posters an idea about distance involved in trade with cities of even Western China (the one which border Pakistan).

Major cities of Western China where most of population of western China is concentrated is farther from Pakistan than even European capitals. If Pakistan-German road trade is non-existent, chances of Choquing-Pakistan trade are not very high.

you done a brilliant job in analyzing all this...

We should also consider the internal factors of Pakistan. One pakistani beautifully narrated saying that the leaders of pakistani provinces could whip up ethnic unrest among populace in order to benefit from the Chinese money by drawing as much as they can. And this could potentially destabilize the environment.

 

[Immortan.Joe]

you done a brilliant job in analyzing all this...

We should also consider the internal factors of Pakistan. One pakistani beautifully said that the leaders of pakistani provinces could whip up ethnic unrest among populace in order to benefit from the Chinese money by drawing as much as they can. And this could potentially destabilize the environment.

And India should encourage ,even finance, such unrest. Unrest and delays increase cost of projects and any unrest regarding CPEC is going to cost money to Pakistan (It is developing CPEC on loan, not grant) making it a bigger Albatross than it already is.

 

[帅的一匹]

It was a stupid comparison to begin with because china would not service its own part of the country via Dubai...
Gwadar has a shorter distance than internally between South and West China...

Karzai invites Pakistani businessmen to invest in Afghanistan
Pakistan Today‎ - 6 hours ago
Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai hasinvited Pakistani businessmen to explore the ...

He said Afghanistan has the lowest taxes in the region and the Pakistani investors will get land free of cost. He was talking to a visiting business delegation led by United Business Group (UBG) Chairman and SAARC Chamber of Commerce Vice President Iftikhar Ali Malik.

While many indians see Chahbar as their hallmark of Afghan policy they forget that Afghanistan is also embarking on such connectivity project with Pakistan to Central Asia..


s a part of its development plan for its transport and communications network, Pakistan Railways has completed a feasibility study of the Chaman-Kandahar section for laying railway tracks between Pakistan and Turkmenistan through Afghanistan. The feasibility study for cost, engineering and design for the construction of a rail link from Gwadar to the existing rail network in Mastung district in Balochistan has also been finalized. The new link to Gwadar port will open up underdeveloped areas of Balochistan for development.The main aim of the venture is to connect the Central Asian republics with Pakistan Railways' network through Afghanistan.

China is going to be the beneficiary of Gwadar's most accessible international trade routes to the Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. By extending its East-West Railway from the Chinese border city of Kashi to Peshawar in Pakistan's northwest, Beijing can receive cargo to and from Gwadar along the shortest route, from Karachi to Peshawar. The rail network could also be used to supply oil from the Persian Gulf to Xinjiang. Pakistan's internal rail network can also provide China with rail access to Iran.

Pakistan is very important for China, both strategically and geographically.

 

[for truth]

And India should encourage ,even finance, such unrest. Unrest and delays increase cost of projects and any unrest regarding CPEC is going to cost money to Pakistan (It is developing CPEC on loan, not grant) making it a bigger Albatross than it already is.

The loans can be ballooned by whipping up the unrest even after the CPEC is completed. We have all the time we need..

 

[帅的一匹]

And India should encourage ,even finance, such unrest. Unrest and delays increase cost of projects and any unrest regarding CPEC is going to cost money to Pakistan (It is developing CPEC on loan, not grant) making it a bigger Albatross than it already is.

Your dirty conspiracy won't succeed, recently there is a Indian spy caught.

 

[Immortan.Joe]

Your dirty conspiracy won't succeed, recently there is a Indian spy caught.

And your point being?

Does India has only one spy?

Everyone spies on everyone and spies getting caught is not an earth shattering event. Only some moron Pakistani thinks that it is some sort of coup for them.

And India only need to fund proper Afghan groups (off cource using untracable means like that of cash) to create unrest in Pakistan. We need not and do not send our people to create unrest in Pakistan.

By extending its East-West Railway from the Chinese border city of Kashi to Peshawar in Pakistan's northwest, Beijing can receive cargo to and from Gwadar along the shortest route, from Karachi to Peshawar. The rail network could also be used to supply oil from the Persian Gulf to Xinjiang. Pakistan's internal rail network can also provide China with rail access to Iran.

Look above for terrain map of China (also consult terrain map of Pakiatan).

If you think that a Railway line could be constructed along Karakoram and Kulun Shan mountains ,let alone be run profitably, you are delusional of first order.

+ Iranian railway and Chinese Railway run on standard gauge (1435 mm) while Pakistani railway run on Indian gauge (1676 mm)

 

[bloo]

The province of China that borders Pakistan and provinces of China that borders that province along with their bordering provinces cover 54% of China's landmass and have only 6% of population because they are mostly deserts, mountains, and high altitude plateau. There are no consumers in provinces to develop them.

XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. People who think that CPEC would be used for trade with China has not fathmoned how big China is. Even Takla Makan deser which lies beyond Kashi is larger than Pakistan.

Apart from that most of cities in Western China are farther from Islamabad than European capital by road. Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is 4900 Km from Islamabad by road, Ningxia (Yinchuan) is 4300 Km, Choquinin is 5000 Km, Ghuzihou (gulyang) is 5500Km away, Yunan(Kuming) is 5900Km, and Sichuan (Chengdu) is 5000Km away from Islamabad.

Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.

CPEC is nothing but an insurance policy of China.



Actually I done some off the hand calculations.

This is cost comparison for viability of CPEC.

Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km

5121 Km - Distance from Shanghai to Kashgar

Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

2747 Km - Distance from Kashgar to Gwadar


Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.

http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf

Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf

These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.

This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway World's 10 dangerous roads | CNN Travel ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47

Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41

So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88

Now let destination port be Dubai.

Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU

http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10

Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93

Twenty-foot equivalent unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)


BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787


Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67

Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93 which is 16 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar.

Heck Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai.

This is time viability calculation for CPEC.

Let's calculate time. In order to give CPEC some leeway, I am expecting that a Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30Kmph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.

Time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days

BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds

Total time required for overland transport when your drivers and port handlers are superman = 16 days.

Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.

Calculating Container Shipping Time


This was an outlier calculation.

Let's be realistic.

Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refuelling stop.

It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashghar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account.

Let's assume that it takes only a day to transfer cargo from a Pakistani to a Chinese truck. The time spent before that Truck moves towards CHina is 9.7 Hours.

That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach SHanghai from Kashghar. ie 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days.

Now we assume that Gwadar system is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

Import Clearance Procedure -- Mehran Corporation Karachi Pakistan

Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 37 days compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca.

Even reaching border of China-Pakistan would take more time (21 days vs 15 days) than transporting a container from Dubai to remotest part of Chinese seaboard.


This is about growth potential calculation for CPEC:

Following provinces are close to CPEC

1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million

2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million

3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million

4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million

5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million

Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is. Pakistan share border with Takla Makan desert of China.

Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place,


CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China.

I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that CPEC has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.

People usually could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan.

It need to be understood that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe!

For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km)

I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.

let's do some analysis. I am calculating Islamabad so that you could get a grasp over distance as Ankara is 4400 Km away from Islamabad by road. and All distance henceforth are by road.


No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km


No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km

No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital

Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km

Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.

But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km

Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km

no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)

Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km

No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km


No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)


Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km

Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km

Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km


All these Western provinces of China are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.


I could do same calculation for Chahbar too. It would take max half an hour for me, though I do not see any point as India is developing Chahbar as strategic port, rather than for financial benefits. Similar to what China is doing with Gwadar.

Can you do the same for Chabahar? Just so we can compare...........