The province of China that borders Pakistan and provinces of China that borders that province along with their bordering provinces cover 54% of China's landmass and have only 6% of population because they are mostly deserts, mountains, and high altitude plateau. There are no consumers in provinces to develop them.
XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. People who think that CPEC would be used for trade with China has not fathmoned how big China is. Even Takla Makan deser which lies beyond Kashi is larger than Pakistan.
Apart from that most of cities in Western China are farther from Islamabad than European capital by road. Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is 4900 Km from Islamabad by road, Ningxia (Yinchuan) is 4300 Km, Choquinin is 5000 Km, Ghuzihou (gulyang) is 5500Km away, Yunan(Kuming) is 5900Km, and Sichuan (Chengdu) is 5000Km away from Islamabad.
Compare to this, Distance between Berlin and Islamabad is 6300 K and Paris is 7300 Km by road. People who think that CPEC would lead to trade with Western China need to look at volume of Pakistan-Germany trade by road to fathom its potential.
CPEC is nothing but an insurance policy of China.
Actually I done some off the hand calculations.
This is cost comparison for viability of CPEC.
Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km
5121 Km - Distance from Shanghai to Kashgar
Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km
2747 Km - Distance from Kashgar to Gwadar
Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.
http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf
Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.
https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf
These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.
This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway
World's 10 dangerous roads | CNN Travel ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulun Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.
But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.
Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47
Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41
So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88
Now let destination port be Dubai.
Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU
http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10
Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93
Twenty-foot equivalent unit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)
BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds
Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787
Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67
Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93 which is 16 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar.
Heck
Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai.
This is time viability calculation for CPEC.
Let's calculate time. In order to give CPEC some leeway, I am expecting that a Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30Kmph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.
Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.
Time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days
BusinessDubai.com - Bizneeds
Total time required for overland transport when your drivers and port handlers are superman = 16 days.
Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.
Calculating Container Shipping Time
This was an outlier calculation.
Let's be realistic.
Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refuelling stop.
It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashghar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account.
Let's assume that it takes only a day to transfer cargo from a Pakistani to a Chinese truck. The time spent before that Truck moves towards CHina is 9.7 Hours.
That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach SHanghai from Kashghar. ie 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days.
Now we assume that Gwadar system is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.
Import Clearance Procedure -- Mehran Corporation Karachi Pakistan
Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 37 days compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca.
Even reaching border of China-Pakistan would take more time (21 days vs 15 days) than transporting a container from Dubai to remotest part of Chinese seaboard.
This is about growth potential calculation for CPEC:
Following provinces are close to CPEC
1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million
2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million
3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million
4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million
5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million
Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is. Pakistan share border with Takla Makan desert of China.
Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place,
CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China.
I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that CPEC has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.
People usually could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan.
It need to be understood that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe!
For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km)
I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.
let's do some analysis. I am calculating Islamabad so that you could get a grasp over distance as Ankara is 4400 Km away from Islamabad by road. and All distance henceforth are by road.
No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).
Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km
No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)
Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km
No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital
Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km
Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.
But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km
Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km
no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)
Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km
No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)
Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km
No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)
Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km
All these Western provinces of China are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.
Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.
I could do same calculation for Chahbar too. It would take max half an hour for me, though I do not see any point as India is developing Chahbar as strategic port, rather than for financial benefits. Similar to what China is doing with Gwadar.
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