Will the BNP strike a deal with New Delhi

[BanglaBhoot]

I have heard many people say Mamun has RAW connection. Yet Mamun was the person who was most tortured during Indian influenced inetrim regime. How would you explain that?

I am not aware MK Anwar being india leaning. At any case said "india leaning leaders" got bail most likely have done on indian instruction so that these leaders can influence BNP with indian wishes while other leaders still in jail. Will that work? I still have doubt and want to see more visible sign before making conclusion. To be honest I did not find that in KZ speech.

I have read KZ speech in Gazipur and I did not find any tone of being india leaning. In my reading and understanding from my sources she rather indicated that Awami League main sponsor India is even moving away from their unconditional support. If you consider india centric statement with rest of her speech it sounded she was conveying the message to police, RAB and Awami caders who were under the impression that india will save Awami becon.

I am actually not closing my eyes at any angle, rather have a strong reading that time to judge if BNP is leaning towards india or not still at least 9-12 months away. Until then there will be lots of indian and Awami attempt to equate BNP with Awami track record.

Munshi bahi I am no way a BNP fan in its current format but we have no choice but to work with it, perhaps influence it to go in right direction. Your writing in the subject is helpful because people will be aware of that unacceptable propect and perhaps start making noise before such thing can happen.

Initially 1/11 was not pro-Indian that is why Mamun got beaten severely. Also Mamun's girlfriend who worked at NTV or ETV was a direct RAW agent.

MK Anwar is not pro-Indian but Mahbubuddin Khokon, Oli Ahmed and most certainly Barrister Andaleeb Rahman are India linked.

KZ's Gazipur speech was made 1 week after her meeting with Pranab Muckerjee and 2 weeks after the reported comment of Congressman Crowley. She clearly indicated in her speech that India was no longer with the AL and that India understood the demands of the people who were with the BNP. What does all this mean? Read my article more carefully which is very intricately argued with lots of materials and evidence.

Why are you talking about 9-12 months away. If things continue that long there will be nothing left of BNP. Why are you assuming that elections are the final outcome of all this wrangling. This is Bangladesh not America or Europe.

I am not in favour of replacing one Indian dalal government with another Indian dalal government. That is no choice at all.

 

[idune]

Initially 1/11 was not pro-Indian that is why Mamun got beaten severely on order of USA. Also Mamun's girlfriend who worked at NTV or ETV was a direct RAW agent.

MK Anwar is not pro-Indian but Mahbubuddin Khokon, Oli Ahmed and most certainly Barrister Andaleeb Rahman are India linked.

KZ's Gazipur speech was made 1 week after her meeting with Pranab Muckerjee and 2 weeks after the reported comment of Congressman Crowley. She clearly indicated in her speech that India was no longer with the AL and that India understood the demands of the people who were with the BNP. What does all this mean? Read my article more carefully which is very intricately argued with lots of materials and evidence.

Why are you talking about 9-12 months away. If things continue that long there will be nothing left of BNP. Why are you assuming that elections are the final outcome of all this wrangling. This is Bangladesh not America or Europe.

I am not in favour of replacing one Indian dalal government with another Indian dalal government. That is no choice at all.

I have read your article.

Congressman Crowley does not determine US foreign policy direction. And US interest and conditions are multiple. So US reservation on Tareq is there but that is not their focus at the moment.

Indian understanding of what people want was there before, india just did not express it in public or shared with BNP. Now BNP what it appears from the speech; made use of that indian "new" found realization to warn Awami League thugs. Besides, Congressman Crowley's remarks are not related to what KZ said in her speech. Based on my reading and understanding from different sources I stand by my analysis. But one can read differently.

Although, indian attempt to hijack BNP policy making and make them new dalal is there and will intensify as time passes. In what degree that scheme will be successful that is I have question about. I understand your concern given Tareq question and connection.

Its not me who is projecting 9-12 months, stake holders of this round are tragetting this timeframe. To me this is just time to take the movement in the street. And a decisive resolution can only come from street movement. Problem is BNP is not (at least not yet) seeing the same. But that may be changing and there are certain indication of that. If you see what Asraful Islam said yesterday - they like to get a resolution about 6 months before the election. US has been publicly pushing for early resolution on that.But privately they have different plan. BNP has June deadline but given current situation their plan may also differ. Considering all these and potential moves by stake holders 9-12 months seems about right time when serious horse trading will start and we could see serious visible sign of who is leaning towards whom? I have further information on different strategy at play which I am not willing share in public forum.

About "replacing one indian dala with another" I am complete agreement with you. There is no point in that. But question still remains (at least to me) are we heading towards that worse scenario?

 

[kalu_miah]

I think we need to organize our civil society as much as possible using various internet tools such as facebook or other similar social networking software tools and at the same time work to organize and reform BNP from within in parallel, using same or similar tools. Anonymous forums like these are the wrong tools, we need internet as communication tools, but offline community based organizing and meeting as well for team building. Both efforts should have one of its important goal to identify individuals that are leaning towards India or have India connection, even the ones that are using deception to hide and go under deep cover. Influence from US and China I believe are both positive for us and can be used as a leverage for a positive direction for Bangladesh in all respects such as:

- reduce Indian influence
- improve relation with China
- improve relation with the US and their lackeys such as Japan and South Korea
- bring in FDI from anywhere in the world, except India
- integration with Myanmar and ASEAN

India has a huge number of assets and agents in place and it will take a national effort to sideline them in a sustained campaign.

US is in a precarious situation now, it knows well that the center of gravity of world's military power, economics, manufacturing etc. is shifting or have already shifted towards East Asia. India wants to use the US/West to get in the game using this situation, by becoming a part of the team for China containment policy. China-US duopoly is bad for India, but it is good for Bangladesh, ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and Muslims of the world, as India will be left out in the cold without any significant role. A NATO like ASEAN+ structure will be good for all small nations in the region, which both China and US can share and use for stability and for reducing influence of upstarts like India. But none of this is written in stone, and Bangladesh has little role in shaping this emerging scenario. We just need to keep our eyes open for all possibilities, see which way winds are shifting and then jump in to board the right train at the right moment, if we already know where we want to go in the long run. The good thing for us is that for the next 10-30 years, both China and US will be top two powers and India will compete with Russia to become a distant third.

From extensive conversation with some East Asian individuals, I know that both Japan and South Korea are vulnerable from China's rise and are looking for long term solution for their strategic security problem. US non-NATO umbrella is not sufficient for their needs once Chinese abilities surpass the US. India is not a long term solution for them, but a ASEAN+ group and Union can potentially be their own backyard and fiefdom. Having countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in this group only adds to the size of this fiefdom. But this situation will come into play only when Chinese GDP exceed US GDP and Chinese weapons technology are at par with US weapons technology, which is still 10-20 or even 30 years away. But sometimes change comes sooner than expected due to avalanche or snow-ball effect, so we have to keep a watchful eye and be ready.

 

[Ammyy]

^^^ I must say "a confused soul" ..........nothing else

 

[manofwar]

MAN, this is one confusing thread!!!
If all the accusations are correct Half of BD is are RAW agents and the rest are pro India!!
Only a small minority, composed of PDF members , is left to oppose the evil Indians......
A billion dollar loan by India is considered bullying and political dominance, but a 250 million dollar loan from China, to build port facilities for China's own use, is considered a sign of goodwill and brotherhood!!
Why this Kolaveri, dudes??

 

[Mech]

If BNP improves relation with India without solving water and border issues, this will be act of treason to common Bangladeshi people....

So basically AL and BNP accused of "treason". Who will replace them ? The world wide Wicca association ?!

 

[BanglaBhoot]

I have read your article.

Congressman Crowley does not determine US foreign policy direction. And US interest and conditions are multiple. So US reservation on Tareq is there but that is not their focus at the moment.

Indian understanding of what people want was there before, india just did not express it in public or shared with BNP. Now BNP what it appears from the speech; made use of that indian "new" found realization to warn Awami League thugs. Besides, Congressman Crowley's remarks are not related to what KZ said in her speech. Based on my reading and understanding from different sources I stand by my analysis. But one can read differently.

Although, indian attempt to hijack BNP policy making and make them new dalal is there and will intensify as time passes. In what degree that scheme will be successful that is I have question about. I understand your concern given Tareq question and connection.

Its not me who is projecting 9-12 months, stake holders of this round are tragetting this timeframe. To me this is just time to take the movement in the street. And a decisive resolution can only come from street movement. Problem is BNP is not (at least not yet) seeing the same. But that may be changing and there are certain indication of that. If you see what Asraful Islam said yesterday - they like to get a resolution about 6 months before the election. US has been publicly pushing for early resolution on that.But privately they have different plan. BNP has June deadline but given current situation their plan may also differ. Considering all these and potential moves by stake holders 9-12 months seems about right time when serious horse trading will start and we could see serious visible sign of who is leaning towards whom? I have further information on different strategy at play which I am not willing share in public forum.

About "replacing one indian dala with another" I am complete agreement with you. There is no point in that. But question still remains (at least to me) are we heading towards that worse scenario?

Congressman Crowley is the founder and chairman of the Bangladesh Caucus and he serves on the the U.S. House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. He has a powerful say on US foriegn policy in respect of Bangladesh.

The point I have been trying to make is that efforts are on to bring India and the BNP closer together and the main bargaining issue is Tareque as the US obviously does not want him.

As for the 9-12 month time frame I think is unrealistic. Anything beyond 2012 will go in the AL's favour. I am not clear what the horse trading is intended to achieve. We are not even sure if there will be elections. If the AL can get convictions against KZ and Tareque then the BNP and Jamaat will boycott. Then what?

I think the replacing of dalals is certainly possible. KZ is surrounded by Indian sympathizers again.

 

[eastwatch]

Light year is a measure of distance not time, just saying.

So be it. I wish a pain in the *** India could be moved away from BD by one light year.

 

[Bombay Dude]

I think we need to organize our civil society as much as possible using various internet tools such as facebook or other similar social networking software tools and at the same time work to organize and reform BNP from within in parallel, using same or similar tools. Anonymous forums like these are the wrong tools, we need internet as communication tools, but offline community based organizing and meeting as well for team building. Both efforts should have one of its important goal to identify individuals that are leaning towards India or have India connection, even the ones that are using deception to hide and go under deep cover. Influence from US and China I believe are both positive for us and can be used as a leverage for a positive direction for Bangladesh in all respects such as:

- reduce Indian influence
- improve relation with China
- improve relation with the US and their lackeys such as Japan and South Korea
- bring in FDI from anywhere in the world, except India
- integration with Myanmar and ASEAN

India has a huge number of assets and agents in place and it will take a national effort to sideline them in a sustained campaign.

US is in a precarious situation now, it knows well that the center of gravity of world's military power, economics, manufacturing etc. is shifting or have already shifted towards East Asia. India wants to use the US/West to get in the game using this situation, by becoming a part of the team for China containment policy. China-US duopoly is bad for India, but it is good for Bangladesh, ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and Muslims of the world, as India will be left out in the cold without any significant role. A NATO like ASEAN+ structure will be good for all small nations in the region, which both China and US can share and use for stability and for reducing influence of upstarts like India. But none of this is written in stone, and Bangladesh has little role in shaping this emerging scenario. We just need to keep our eyes open for all possibilities, see which way winds are shifting and then jump in to board the right train at the right moment, if we already know where we want to go in the long run. The good thing for us is that for the next 10-30 years, both China and US will be top two powers and India will compete with Russia to become a distant third.

From extensive conversation with some East Asian individuals, I know that both Japan and South Korea are vulnerable from China's rise and are looking for long term solution for their strategic security problem. US non-NATO umbrella is not sufficient for their needs once Chinese abilities surpass the US. India is not a long term solution for them, but a ASEAN+ group and Union can potentially be their own backyard and fiefdom. Having countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in this group only adds to the size of this fiefdom. But this situation will come into play only when Chinese GDP exceed US GDP and Chinese weapons technology are at par with US weapons technology, which is still 10-20 or even 30 years away. But sometimes change comes sooner than expected due to avalanche or snow-ball effect, so we have to keep a watchful eye and be ready.

First Learn to Make a Sewing Machine and Then Some one will Give a Sh!t about You.

 

[Kaniska]

I think we need to organize our civil society as much as possible using various internet tools such as facebook or other similar social networking software tools and at the same time work to organize and reform BNP from within in parallel, using same or similar tools. Anonymous forums like these are the wrong tools, we need internet as communication tools, but offline community based organizing and meeting as well for team building. Both efforts should have one of its important goal to identify individuals that are leaning towards India or have India connection, even the ones that are using deception to hide and go under deep cover. Influence from US and China I believe are both positive for us and can be used as a leverage for a positive direction for Bangladesh in all respects such as:

- reduce Indian influence
- improve relation with China
- improve relation with the US and their lackeys such as Japan and South Korea
- bring in FDI from anywhere in the world, except India
- integration with Myanmar and ASEAN

India has a huge number of assets and agents in place and it will take a national effort to sideline them in a sustained campaign.

US is in a precarious situation now, it knows well that the center of gravity of world's military power, economics, manufacturing etc. is shifting or have already shifted towards East Asia. India wants to use the US/West to get in the game using this situation, by becoming a part of the team for China containment policy. China-US duopoly is bad for India, but it is good for Bangladesh, ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and Muslims of the world, as India will be left out in the cold without any significant role. A NATO like ASEAN+ structure will be good for all small nations in the region, which both China and US can share and use for stability and for reducing influence of upstarts like India. But none of this is written in stone, and Bangladesh has little role in shaping this emerging scenario. We just need to keep our eyes open for all possibilities, see which way winds are shifting and then jump in to board the right train at the right moment, if we already know where we want to go in the long run. The good thing for us is that for the next 10-30 years, both China and US will be top two powers and India will compete with Russia to become a distant third.

From extensive conversation with some East Asian individuals, I know that both Japan and South Korea are vulnerable from China's rise and are looking for long term solution for their strategic security problem. US non-NATO umbrella is not sufficient for their needs once Chinese abilities surpass the US. India is not a long term solution for them, but a ASEAN+ group and Union can potentially be their own backyard and fiefdom. Having countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in this group only adds to the size of this fiefdom. But this situation will come into play only when Chinese GDP exceed US GDP and Chinese weapons technology are at par with US weapons technology, which is still 10-20 or even 30 years away. But sometimes change comes sooner than expected due to avalanche or snow-ball effect, so we have to keep a watchful eye and be ready.

@Kalu_Mian: You post nice and sensible reply...but sometimes you becomes very specific without any real course of action...
I know that you have a long wish list vis a vis India....Your aspiration to become part of ASEAN+ and so many grouping and explicitly by passing India....But if you are a sensible member, so you think it is practical? You can tell me thouand stories....

Here is the bottomline for which i feel your argument is not valid.

India, inspite of severe animosity with Pakistan is slowly trying to integrate and provide concession with Pakistan.......I am in loop with various back end diplomacy group with Pakistan...and India will be ready to provide some kind of concession to Pakistan in coming 10-20 year.....As a part of that Pakistan may be slowly try to dis associate with Kashmir struggle.And once Pakistan disassociate with Kashmir, Indian political party can ask and convince Indian public to provide some concession towards resolution of Kashmir issue... The reason i am explaining is becoz inspite of o many difference India is moving towards Pakistan for better economic future. Beacaue a nation can not develop economically without having a good relation with its neighour economically...So if you think that BANGLADESH can develop economically by passing and explicitly avoiding India...You can go ahead...but i know this does not work.....And why do you think that USA and these entire ASEAN+ simply be in your lap to adore you bypassing India??

You have a valid reason that Killing of unarmed people is an issue...But this is a issue not from Indian side too...You guys should try to undertand Indian concern also...So steps should be taken so that this inhuman approch should be stopped....But if BD intentionally try to bully India with some vague reasons....Then i feel Indian GOV is completent enough to deal with it diplomatically and politically ..

 

[clmeta]

Are you willing to relocate to Antarctica???

So be it. I wish a pain in the *** India could be moved away from BD by one light year.

 

[notsuperstitious]

BD people and BNP are all for a good relationship with India, but, it must be based on equality. India is an independent country with a few knowledge of external diplomacy. That is why its bureaucrats think bullying is the only medicine a small country like BD needs to keep it in Indian line. This is a mistake.

This is why when in power, BNP demanded an extravagant annual $150 million fee and a share of gas when India asked for a pipeline corridor to bring in Burmese gas through BD land. BD wanted to bully India, too, when India was in a weak position. It was a tit for tat action. Same goes with transit. If India behaves well, does not unnecessarily kill our citizens, smugglers they may be, shares river water with us, then India can expect similar treatment from BD, too.

But, will India change its colour soon or it will go after punishing BD for using US/China card by unleashing RAW-instigated terror to destabilize BD?

People of India are also all for good relations with BD. But the whole equality bogeyman is misplaced, atleast to some extent. You will always see small countries when heavily surrounded by a much larger country, will always have a sense of suspicion and insecurity. Somewhere BD also needs to get over that.

And the China card needs to be used carefully, thats all i will say. BD is not a country that wants to become a pawn, in the fear of becoming an indian pawn, would you risk becoming a chinese one? I get that feeling when BD posters spend hours debating trade gap with India but completely ignoring the structurally more worrying gap with China. Such silly and unreasonable behaviour will have to go.

Remember, just like leaders, your international relations you will get only what you deserve.

 

[idune]

Congressman Crowley is the founder and chairman of the Bangladesh Caucus and he serves on the the U.S. House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. He has a powerful say on US foriegn policy in respect of Bangladesh.

Congressman Crowley and Bangladesh Caucus does not have that much power as far as policy setting. Indian lobby has more power than that. If anything it will be because those lobby. But tht is not so say Congressman Crowley and indian lobby sometime wants the same thing. If congressman was that powerful in US policy setting than Bangladesh would have got duty free access long time ago. But my intention is not undermining his effort or his office.

The point I have been trying to make is that efforts are on to bring India and the BNP closer together and the main bargaining issue is Tareque as the US obviously does not want him.

Dont you feel US and indian intereest diverging on Bangladesh?

I think the replacing of dalals is certainly possible. KZ is surrounded by Indian sympathizers again

That would be optimum outcome to throw these dalas out.

 

[BanglaBhoot]

Congressman Crowley and Bangladesh Caucus does not have that much power as far as policy setting. Indian lobby has more power than that. If anything it will be because those lobby. But tht is not so say Congressman Crowley and indian lobby sometime wants the same thing. If congressman was that powerful in US policy setting than Bangladesh would have got duty free access long time ago. But my intention is not undermining his effort or his office.

US foriegn policy at present is not to give duty free access to Bangladesh. What has Bangladesh given the US that the latter should give this facility? When Bangladesh makes some offer to the US then Crowley will be the one to push the US government to make concessions. The US does not give anyone any free gifts.

Dont you feel US and indian intereest diverging on Bangladesh?

There appears to be some divergence now. That is why India will want to back the BNP as US is not in favour of the party as long as Tareque has an option of coming to power. If the AL falls India has the only option of backing BNP or supporting military rule. The Indians will prefer the former so they will negotiate with BNP and support Tareque if necessary.

That would be optimum outcome to throw these dalas out.

Indian dalals should be removed from BD politics. The problem is that we have difficulty in identifying the dalals.

 

[kalu_miah]

If RAWamy League falls and BNP comes to power, then India will have no option but to work with BNP. But I doubt they will give up their baby. Minority population of Bangladesh will play a big role in keeping RAWamy League alive, unless we can somehow prove to them that they can have better protection and future economic prospect without their support of RAWamy League and thus have Bangladesh move out of Indian control.

The key decisions for our future are being made in three capitals, DC, Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul, so definitely we will be better off, if we can have better lobbying in these three capitals. In order for us to counter Indian lobby in DC, we may have to team up with Chinese, Japanese and Korean lobbyists. In Beijing, we are in friendly territory, obviously there is no need to counter India there, but we need Chinese support for our integration with Myanmar and ASEAN. In Tokyo and Seoul, we need to team up with Beijing and USA to counter Indian lobbying efforts against our interest.

As for taking out Indian dalals, may be we can turn them into USA, Japanese, Korean and ASEAN dalals, if they refuse to become Chinese dalals, because definitely all these states have interest in Bangladesh and have more resources than India.

Indians who feel irritated about Bangladesh interest in ASEAN integration, no one is claiming that ASEAN will drop India and choose Bangladesh for trade and economic integration. But the crux of the matter is this - large states like China and India will not be accepted by a future ASEAN+ union led by Japan and its little brother South Korea, because they (Japan and South Korea) will be overshadowed and dominated by these large states, if that happens. The threat for domination of large states is precisely why the smaller states will get together in a union to improve their economic competitiveness as well as security architecture, in my opinion. Being big has its advantages and being small has its disadvantages, my approach is to turn this disadvantage into an opportunity for small states and turn the advantage of big states into a liability. As they you cannot have your cake and eat it too.