Will East Asia ever be integrated?

[Indos]

I doubt that,

European is something different if East Asian countries want to follow their case. All of them (European countries), in the old time, comes from German land and tribes who then conquers Roman empire and become nations (French, British, etc). Despite that, European alone (without USA) only get united in economic aspect Today (Euro Zone).

Another important factor of European integration is actually USA's presence. If there is no USA as a leader, I doubt they can unite militarily like Today (NATO). NATO is also made because of they face similar enemy (USSR), so there is a common threat and interest there.

USA becomes leader because it is the most respected country in that group. It is respected since in essence USA is lead by white people (European descent as well) and it is USA who helped European countries to defeat German at WW 2, and not necessarily because its economy and military is a giant in scale. So there should be a leader to speed up integration in any kind of area (East Asia, Arabs, etc), and the leader should be a nation that is the most respected morally by others.

Talking about East Asian integration, economically it has already been integrated into quite good extend after China choose to embrace market system and open up its economy in late 80's.

 

[Aepsilons]

Long time no see. You become a geisha?

Hahahaha! Ni zhen kei ai!

I doubt that,

European is something different if East Asian countries want to follow their case. All of them (European countries), in the old time, comes from German land and tribes who then conquers Rome empire and become nations (French, British, etc). Despite that, European alone (without USA) only get united in economic perspective Today (Euro zone).

Another important factor of European integration is actually USA's presence. If there is no USA as a leader, I doubt they can unite militarily like Today (NATO). NATO is also made because of they face similar enemy (USSR), so there is a common threat and interest there.

USA becomes leader because it is the most respected country in that group. It is respected since in essence USA is lead by white people (European descent as well) and it is USA who helped European countries to defeat German at WW 2, and not necessarily because its economy and military is a giant in scale. So there should be a leader to speed up integration in any kind of area (East Asia, Arabs, etc), and the leader should be a nation that is the most respected morally by others.

Talking about East Asian integration, economically it has already been integrated into quite good extend after China choose to embrace market system and open up its economy in late 80's.

Very good points bro, the political aspect will be the greatest barrier in an East Asian Union, and I must admit that so long as there are U.S. Forces in South Korea and in Japan, then this will be an issue. Unless , there will be a geopolitical change wherein the U.S. Realized the opportunities in joining hands with Beijing , geopolitically.

 

[Indos]

Very good points bro, the political aspect will be the greatest barrier in an East Asian Union, and I must admit that so long as there are U.S. Forces in South Korea and in Japan, then this will be an issue. Unless , there will be a geopolitical change wherein the U.S. Realized the opportunities in joining hands with Beijing , geopolitically.

Thanks bro,

But again I have another doubt as well about USA who will try to see China as a friendly nation in their eyes. It is a hard thing in my opinion.

It actually should be started from economic aspect first before going into a political one. China export lead economy is really destroying USA, this is the the core hate comes, in my opinion. China needs to change its economic policy in order to create harmony in Today's market system, and more willing to absorb product from other nations. There should be a willingness from market system big player to create harmony in the system rather than killing each other.

Lets take a look at oil market and see Saudi as an example, I believe the action taken by Saudi to attack oil industry in the USA (who uses new cracking technology) is not healthy. Making the price so low to pressure similar industry at other country is not a good action morally. Even though Saudi still has economic competitiveness in such low oil price, but overall it is still not good to target USA oil industry by using price as a tool. In term of China, for example, their steel industry export has made many similar industry in other countries become unprofitable.

 

[Audio]

Lets take a look at oil market and see Saudi as an example, I believe the action taken by Saudi to attack oil industry in the USA (who uses new cracking technology) is not healthy. Making the price so low to pressure similar industry at other country is not a good action morally. Even though Saudi still has economic competitiveness in such low oil price, but overall it is still not good to target USA oil industry by using price as a tool. In term of China, for example, their steel industry export has made many similar industry in other countries become unprofitable.

erm....those price drops are targeted at Russia and to some extent Iran. American frackers are just collateral damage White House is willing to cut. Or in essence, just close down the wells, until prices rise sufficently again to make them profitable-although demand for oil seems to be weakening globally driving the price down further. Also OPEC didn't cut production.

Chinese steel industry-indebted to the point of bankrupcy. They simply overcalculated themselves, just like in solar industry. What you say is correct though, that they took a large chunk of business from western countries.
But get this, they did it, on debt and with a side effect of a tarnished environment, which will bring costs in the medium term.
So, now they have debt laden companies plus an environmental bill to pay. I trust you are intelligent enough to deduce the shortsightedness of this policy.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/274da9e8-8731-11e4-8a51-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3cgABcyPA

Haixin Enters Bankruptcy Proceedings Amid Steel Industry Woes - Bloomberg Business

扛债3万亿 钢企破产警报 - 经济观察网 － 专业财经新闻网站

One could perhaps argue the CCP was wiling to throw this money out the window and be satisfied with the result of taking business away from western countries. However, what is left in EU is working well and growing.

World Steel Association
- World crude steel output increases by 1.2% in 2014

^^ note the Chinese share of world steel output has fallen slightly, though it's still gargantuan by any means. Almost 50%.

 

[Indos]

erm....those price drops are targeted at Russia and to some extent Iran. American frackers are just collateral damage White House is willing to cut. Or in essence, just close down the wells, until prices rise sufficently again to make them profitable-although demand for oil seems to be weakening globally driving the price down further. Also OPEC didn't cut production.

Chinese steel industry-indebted to the point of bankrupcy. They simply overcalculated themselves, just like in solar industry.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/274da9e8-8731-11e4-8a51-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3cgABcyPA

Haixin Enters Bankruptcy Proceedings Amid Steel Industry Woes - Bloomberg Business

扛债3万亿 钢企破产警报 - 经济观察网 － 专业财经新闻网站

Yup, there is a good point there that Saudi get order from USA even though it is still considered as one of the speculative analysis.

And about (some) China steel industry becoming bankrupt is some thing that makes a good reason of why the steel price is so low currently, there is a price war going on because of over supply that affect steel price globally as China economy slowing down. As I said previously, this kind of problem should be fixed in order to create more harmony in Todays market system even though it is not caused by a state player.

 

[empirefighter]

USA

Thanks bro,

But again I have another doubt as well about USA who will try to see China as a friendly nation in their eyes. It is a hard thing in my opinion.

It actually should be started from economic aspect first before going into a political one. China export lead economy is really destroying USA, this is the the core hate comes, in my opinion. China needs to change its economic policy in order to create harmony in Today's market system, and more willing to absorb product from other nations. There should be a willingness from market system big player to create harmony in the system rather than killing each other.

Lets take a look at oil market and see Saudi as an example, I believe the action taken by Saudi to attack oil industry in the USA (who uses new cracking technology) is not healthy. Making the price so low to pressure similar industry at other country is not a good action morally. Even though Saudi still has economic competitiveness in such low oil price, but overall it is still not good to target USA oil industry by using price as a tool. In term of China, for example, their steel industry export has made many similar industry in other countries become unprofitable.

1.USA is far beyond being destroyed,even it is destroyed,that must not us. The USA,Europe and Japan have similar industrial structure,they are the competitors.China cannot changllege USA now but we cando that decades later.
2.China is not export lead economy,in this world,weare just in the middle position relying on the export,EVERY LARGE economy is RELYING on its INTERNAL market.
3.It is the global competition world,it is your problem if your companies are not good enough. Chinese auto industry is not good enough when compared to Japan and Korea,the people are very unsatified,but we never blame the foreign auto companies,we blame ourselves and find out shortcomings.
4.You just see the debt of solar and steel indutry,but you cannot see the technology improvement by tough competition. Today,our solar and steel industry are competitive.

 

[biendong]

Think of the United Kingdom; composed of England, Wales , Scotland and Northern Ireland. Same context.

OK, next time I go to Japan for business I could speak futonghua with Japanese.

 

[Aepsilons]

OK, next time I go to Japan for business I could speak futonghua with Japanese.

Ha ha ha, well definitely you can because there is a significant Chinese immigrant population in the country.












---------------------------------


Dear @Indos @Audio @cnleio @Shotgunner51 @empirefighter and everyone else who participated in this thread ,

I would like to endorse to you all a book that was written by Satoshi Amako, Shunji Matsuoka and Kenji Horiuchi (2013), which touched on the developing themes of developing integration of East Asia.

Asian regional integration has shown remarkable progress since the end of the 1990s, but is currently at a major crossroads amid confusion of debate over the direction and effectiveness of integration, and friction brought about by the “rise of China”. Meanwhile, the changing balance of power among nations, the rise of non-state actors, the “internationalization of internal problems” and the “internalization of international problems”, are rendering the cross-national structure of Asia increasingly complex and multilayered. Signs of instability of the global economy are growing and environmental and resource challenges are deepening. The Asian region needs new approaches to understanding the state of regional integration and mechanisms to address the challenges.

Regional Integration in East Asia: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives is the culmination of five years of intensive research on Asian regional integration by Waseda University. It re-examines theoretical approaches to comprehending the actual state of integration in the region and presents the most compelling among them. It also examines the state of regional cooperation in Asia in areas ranging from the economy to energy and the environment, security and education. In addition, the book offers long-term historical perspectives, including especially those of Japan, ASEAN and China, on Asian regional integration. Thus, it sheds light on diverse aspects, levels of analysis and time spans, and offers a comprehensive portrayal of the actual condition of Asia and the state of endeavours to build regional cooperation and institutions. This volume will open a new research frontier in Asian regional integration research.

About the editors

Satoshi Amako is Professor at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Japan. Shunji Matsuoka is Professor at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Japan. Kenji Horiuchi is a Research Fellow at the Waseda University Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Japan.

Part I: Theoretical perspectives on Asian regional integration
Asia and regional integration theory: Between a regional complex and a regional society,
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Norms and regional institutions: Towards an East Asian community, Hiro Katsumata
East Asian integration and domestic politics, Jemma Kim
Institutional approaches to Asian regional integration, Shunji Matsuoka
The GIARI model of Asian regional integration studies and its meaning, Satoshi Amako

Part II: Issues in Asian regional integration
Globalization and regional economic integration in East Asia, Shujiro Urata
Energy and environmental institutions in East Asia, Kenji Horiuchi, Reishi Matsumoto and
Katsuya Tanaka
The rise and fall of the debate over East Asian multilateral regional security cooperation, Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
Regional integration and cooperation in higher education in Asia, Kazuo Kuroda

Part III: Historicizing Asian regional integration
Between civilization and anti-civilization: The ideology and activism of early Asianists, Naoyuki Umemori
Japan and pan-Asianism: Lost opportunities, Seiko Mimaki
Southeast Asia in the post-war period: The origins and crossroads of Bandung, non-alignment and ASEAN, Sachiko Hirakawa
From Asia-Africa and Asia-Pacific to Asia: China’s multilateral cooperation in Asia, Rumi Aoyama



So yes ! Check it out fellow readers ! You will love it !

 

[terranMarine]

@Nihonjin1051 So the Japanese forum where you are a member of you were having discussions with your brethren about an integrated East Asian union? Why are they so interested to see this to happen? What are their reactions after reading some of the Chinese views here on PDF?

 

[Aepsilons]

@Nihonjin1051 So the Japanese forum where you are a member of you were having discussions with your brethren about an integrated East Asian union? Why are they so interested to see this to happen? What are their reactions after reading some of the Chinese views here on PDF?

Naturally the reactions are varied, and many are fairly modest and fair in their opinings. There are , of course, some vocal antagonists -- one may refer to as radicals. Very much, really, like some Chinese member posters here in PDF who are extremely radical , ultranationalistic.

Some themes that we're discussing or have been brought up are:

a) How can Japan and China move past historical obstacles

b) North Korea: The ultimate barrier to integration, opportunities for Japan, China and South Korea to bring Pyongyang into the fold , not through militaristic means, but through diplomacy and through cordiality.

• Some members even mentioned that the presence of American forces perpetuates this polarization
• USA has to leave Korea and Japan

c) What will a unified East Asia look like ? This has been the most popular theme discussed.

 

[biendong]

Ha ha ha, well definitely you can because there is a significant Chinese immigrant population in the country.

I do business with Japanese, not with Chinese immigrants.

 

[powastick]

Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Dalai Lama will have strange ideas.

 

[Audio]

Yup, there is a good point there that Saudi get order from USA even though it is still considered as one of the speculative analysis.

I think it's more transactional than just simply taking orders. At least to some extent. Here it should be noted the leeway given to ISIS.....15 flights a day compared to 100+ in other campaigns.

And about (some) China steel industry becoming bankrupt is some thing that makes a good reason of why the steel price is so low currently, there is a price war going on because of over supply that affect steel price globally as China economy slowing down. As I said previously, this kind of problem should be fixed in order to create more harmony in Todays market system even though it is not caused by a state player.

I doubt China will do what you hope it will. They are becoming increasingly erratic.
If we only take the provincial government financing example.
They borrowed heavily through shadow banking (30% of China's GDP), can't pay back.....now central government has refinanced those debts with lower interest rates AND loosened regulation governing shadow banking....so provincial governments will still tap it.

 

[Indos]

I doubt China will do what you hope it will. They are becoming increasingly erratic.
If we only take the provincial government financing example.
They borrowed heavily through shadow banking (30% of China's GDP), can't pay back.....now central government has refinanced those debts with lower interest rates AND loosened regulation governing shadow banking....so provincial governments will still tap it.

Yah, I know about their provincial government that has huge debt. It seems like happening in USA (some USA states if I am not mistaken are also near bankrupt because such practice). In my country, only central government and private enterprises who can issue a bond. The thing that make it different is that China central government still has huge surplus.

 

[Audio]

Yah, I know about their provincial government that has huge debt. It seems like happening in USA (some USA states if I am not mistaken are also near bankrupt because such practice). In my country, only central government and private enterprises who can issue a bond. The thing that make it different is that China central government still has huge surplus.

Well, US, we can all agree something is terribly wrong there. But things aren't great in China as well or at the minimum aren't going so smoothly as the stories being told here.

The surplus you speak of? Forex? That is for pensions, healthcare and environmental cleanup and lots of it tied up in bonds. Central government generally has a budget deficit for years now. Why they don't use that forex to cover the holes, i wouldn't know.