You are probably over-estimating Indian investment in the Arab world and under-estimating the role of religion. IF there is a war and if there are footage of Pakistanis bombarded and suffering then people AND nations often throw caution to the wind and follow some kind of 'gut instinct'.
Religion plays a very limited role outside Pakistan to influence international relations. And the very fact that there are different Islamic countries today within the same region (22+ Arab states, 2 Perso-Turko-Arab-based states Afghanistan and Pakistan, 4 CAR states, 3 southeast Asian states etc) is a big enough evidence of how much religion comes in the way of practical foreign policies.
If that was the case, you'd have a formal military block as a single country similar to how EU is bound with a single currency. Or conversely, we and the entire Southeast (barring Javan and Sumatran states) would have been a single entity.
It doesn't work like that and sadly, you Pakistanis don't understand it.
Yes, Indians have a lot of investment in the Arab world but Indians, by looking at their responses here and elsewhere, have made it abundantly clear that they are more friendly to Israel than what the Arabs would like. Heck, Indians here cheer-lead Israel against even countries like Iran and Turkey! And,again, don't forget humans are an emotional lot and don't always follow 'reason'; if they did then there wouldn't be so many wars.
Name me one post where any of us say "YAY! Let Israel bomb Arab countries to stone age". Not one. Our support for Israel is vis a vis shared interests and threats of similar nature that we share i.e. Jihad. It doesn't mean we want them to bomb GCC and other nations.
Please understand that Israel supported us even when they were in the opposite camp during Cold War and what has happened is that we share a strong understanding of each others' geo-strategic position and concerns.
BTW Turkey is trebling its ties with us and is keen to enter into closer ties with us. We recently had Turkish trade and tourism summit here in India (can't remember the name but had some really lovely Turkish Delights there
).
We don't become hostile to someone out of silly little things such as emotions.
What about Arab investments in India?
What about millions of Indian expats in Arab countries?
Exactly. That's why Arab nations will remain neutral because of massive expat populations there. They cannot be a part of a conflict that is not theirs for not reason.
Of course they will. Arabs are Pakistan's closest allies.
So many Pakistanis are living lives of unimaginable luxury in their nations. Arabs literally love paksitan.
By ratio, there are more Indians present in those countries working in considerably strong positions. That way they have to stay neutral.
We sometimes get emotional and unreasonable words get out of our mouths, but in reality, I think Arab people as well as most regimes will take Pakistan side, I hope that, most regimes that took neutral stance in Pak/India wars have been toppled down. Jordan, GCC and others will help Pakistan, at least, that's what I think.
It just boils down to mutual benefits in today's world. The question is, what would the Arabs gain from Pakistan in the long run? Trade is one aspect and strategical considerations are another. OIC support is very different from real term support. Right now it is a balanced stand-off: Maintain good ties between us and Arabs and:
- Arabs won't support one specific party in a war against the other.
- Indians shall remain neutral in Middle Eastern affairs.
A give and take relationship of equal proportion. I am talking vis a vis Saudi and Kuwait more than anyone else because UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar are far more pro-India in general terms than the other two.
OIC support doesn't really matter much to us but logistical support from northern Arab countries would really jeopardize a far more serious relation than one based on a middle ages-era ideology of common religion.
