Why the Risk of War is Higher with Iran than North Korea

[Blue In Green]

Iran needed nukes to deter US so how does that support being more interested in relationship with US?
Yes lets defintely look at Pakistan!- a country your country helped more gladly than Iran. Lol. just facts. You think Pakistan got nukes because they just wanted to? please.
Regarding Iran and making the push for nukes, it wasnt only US Iran had to deal with. The internationa community too was important, afterall THEY also voted for UN sanctions on Iran along with US, so it wasnt only US that had issues with Iran's nuclear program.

In my humble opinion Iran has the most difficult time acquiring nukes because of it's status in the eyes of the US and Israel. To the US and Israelis (who never gave single damn about Iran and it's citizens) still want Iran to come back into their fold as a vassal state of some sort. This is a prospect that will never happen again. But for Iran to become completely secure or at least more secure it would have to acquire a nuclear arsenal that is lethal and size-able. We now know Iran has a lethal and viable Ballistic missile inventory that is growing significantly year-by-year but without a credible air-force it still means is open for attack from other surrounding states that have good air-forces.

Secondly as stated in this thread or at least hinted at. Iran needed and still needs either Russia or China to grow a pair of fucking balls and just stand by Iran both diplomatically and militarily when Iran is quite literally standing ALONE against the giant destabilizing hegemonic power (US) and its stooges in the Middle east. Iran is effectively fighting this fight alone and doing a great job of it. Again, the cost of doing this is great Russia really can't because Russia wants to make good with the US and west and China doesn't want to lose out on economic deals and risk being ostracized

I don't know all the details though, we can only hope that China/Russia indeed has had closed door talks with Iran to help it in it's time of great need but only time will tell.

That being said this post isn't to bash China or Russia at all. China is an amazing entity that is fully taking advantage of its situation in the world and progressing itself as a nation. We can only hope Iran abandons the West and focussing the the Eurasian region and makes money somewhere else where the vile US doesn't have it's blood covered hands in.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Iran needed nukes to deter US so how does that support being more interested in relationship with US?
Yes lets defintely look at Pakistan!- a country your country helped more gladly than Iran. Lol. just facts. You think Pakistan got nukes because they just wanted to? please.
Regarding Iran and making the push for nukes, it wasnt only US Iran had to deal with. The internationa community too was important, afterall THEY also voted for UN sanctions on Iran along with US, so it wasnt only US that had issues with Iran's nuclear program.

Nuclear weapons are 1950's technology, Iran could have built them anytime they wanted to.

But Iran deliberately did not do that, in order to appease the USA. They even issued a "fatwa" making it illegal for them to acquire nuclear weapons.

I think this is a very big mistake, because the USA won't keep their promises. As Trump has already proven by restarting sanctions against Iran.

I don't know why the Iranian reformist leadership has so much trust in the USA. Obama/Trump, it doesn't matter, it's all the same thing in the end.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Iran needed and still needs either Russia or China to grow a pair of fucking balls and just stand by Iran both diplomatically and militarily when Iran is quite literally standing ALONE against the giant destabilizing hegemonic power (US) and its stooges in the Middle east.

In fact I think a mutual defence treaty would be a great thing.

The problem is that everyone is trying to balance, between USA, Russia, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia for instance.

If Iran were to sign a mutual defence treaty with China, that means if China were to declare war against the USA (on the Korean peninsula or in the SCS for example) then Iran would also have to declare war against the USA. Is that something Iran would want to do?

Would Iran declare that the South China Sea and the Diaoyu islands belong to China, or that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to China? Alienating Japan, India and the nations of Southeast Asia all in one go?

And at the same time, would China want to cut ourselves off from the GCC, or declare war on America, Saudi Arabia or Israel because Iran did so?

It's not something to be taken lightly, China signed a mutual defence treaty with North Korea over half a century ago, and we are still bound by it today. If the USA invades North Korea then China will be forced to intervene, leading to the Korean War 2.0.

 

[AmirPatriot]

Would Iran declare that the South China Sea and the Diaoyu islands belong to China, or that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to China? Alienating Japan, India and the nations of Southeast Asia all in one go?

And at the same time, would China want to cut ourselves off from the GCC, or declare war on America, Saudi Arabia or Israel because Iran did so?

Therein lies the problem. Iran and China have enemies beside the US, many of which the other side has decent relations with. The geographical distance between the two countries also means it is difficult to have common regional interests. I believe we talked about this before and got kind of stuck

Now, maybe with the rebuilding of the silk road, Iran would factor more into Chinese strategic calculus. But I don't think a mutual defence treaty is actually necessary, or indeed plausible with the delicate situation of international relations of Iran and China. Unless something very odd happens in the world, I don't see Iran becoming hostile to Japan, S Korea, India etc. and nor do I see China becoming hostile to Saudi and Israel.

What is more likely is a mutual "supply" treaty. As in, one side would help the other materially in a war. So China might be in need of oil in a war against the US. If the US pressures Saudi, they could deny the supply of oil to China, which Iran could probably not completely replace (they produce a lot more oil than us), but certainly mitigate the effects of. China could invest in Iranian oil fields to make them capable of supplying more oil, invest in a pipeline that brings Iranian oil directly to China (though the incredible distances maybe make this far fetched), unless China feels confident enough to rely on its own navy to guard Iranian oil tankers in the Indian Ocean and SCS.

Investment by China would bring in capital required for Iran to modernise its military. Iran's air force especially, is in need of serious modernisation which China could help with. Again, in a war situation, Chinese arms like tanks and aircraft could help Iran ward off direct US threats or threats by US allies in the region. I'm sure China would like to see the US take a hit to its prestige and clout by failing at war.