Xeric
RETIRED THINK TANK
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Contents of the article are my personal views based on factual reports and documented data and do not represent any official/institutional policy.
This article has been written by myself. i have tried to converge many thoughts that i had after reading numerous books, aritcles and online stuff. Though, some facts are taken from other articles and similar texts but most of te text represents my personal views. Attributaion to anything in the article would be readily available on demand.
Constructive criticism is welcomed.
Text in green was added afterwards. Give some reading to it....
WHY PAKISTAN IS IN TROUBLE?
The dawn of 21st Century has seen the rise of a New Great Game for control of the world energy resources, particularly in the Central Asia and Middle East. The struggle for control over these energy banks, as I call them, has lead to a tale of political rivalries, commercial competitions and geostrategic challenges. Central Asia, especially the Caspian region is one of the largest unexploited hydro carbon energy sources in the world. Possible reserves of oil are estimated to be as high as 200 billion barrels; moreover it also inherits large reserves of gas (estimated to 8 trillion cubic meters).
Birth of inexperienced newly independent states of Central Asia after the demise of Soviet Union has led to a different sort of a competition and quarrel among the world powers and stake holders, but this time the playing field is complex and complicated with vast problems and difficulties as the region is scared with war and
Since the gap between demand and supply is on the rise, the Central Asian energy resources offer and important alternative with diversifies supply routes. This in turn give the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and its neighboring countries a great opportunity to earn great dividends out of the energy resources present there.
A Piece from History
This phenomenon of capturing all the energy banks is not new to this century. Throughout the 20th century Caspian oil has played a key role in shaping the world politics. This thinking, from the late 19th century to the 2nd World War has defined OIL as a strategic raw material to be monopolized.
I believe that it is the history that wants to repeat itself. Previously it was the Middle East and now its place have been taken by CARs and the countries that would route it out to the world.
Many readers would be thinking that how could the Middle East relate to Pakistan, yes it do and here it is why: (while reading through the following please keep in mind the similarities between the Middle Eastern oil reach states and the CARs, alongwith and eye over the countries that surround CARs)
The Middle East was actually known as West Asia and primitively as Near Asia, but renamed as Middle east during the WW2. It is geographically located at the juncture of Europe, Asia and Africa. Traditionally it has been serving as a commercial, cultural and military route between the East and the West. With 21 constituent states it stretches from from the borders of Pakistan in the East to North Africa up to Morocco.
Historically Middle East has never been a geographic expression, but its economics and political recognition has been more prominent.
The geostrategic importance of the region is high as to two major international waterways: the Suez Canal and the Turkish Straits, around whom revolved the 20th century political and military struggles of major powers, are located in Middle East. This fact definitely affects the entire global political balance.
This shouldnt come to you as a news, as according to a report the desert sands of the Middle east holds 2 out of every 3 barrels of oil in the world! Today the region holds 67% of the total oils reserves in the world. With the new discoveries the Middle East and North Africa are likely to control 83% of oil reserves of the world by the year 2020.
The industrialized world is mainly dependent on the Persian Gulf states for their oil supply and it was due to this fact that this region was and is engulfed in turmoil.
The Conspiracies
In an attempt to establish their grip, the first conspiracy devised against the region overpowering of the Ottoman Empire by the Allies during WW-1.
Middle East was carved up into nation states, mandates and protectorates, all became independent following WW-1. Through the discriminatory Sykes-Picot Agreement-1916, Britain and France divided the Middle East in a manner that well suited them, rather to the Arabs, some of whom supported the Allies.
In volition of secret agreement of supporting Britain against Ottoman Empire, made in 1915 between Sir Henry McMahon and Sharif Hussayn (Governor of Hijaz), Britain did not grant Palestine under the Arab control. Instead through Balfour Declaration-1917, Britain got into making a plot with leading Zionists and France to create a Jewish state at the Palestine land.
The declaration was a classified statement of the British government for supporting a Jewish national home in the Palestine. It was later incorporated into the Sevres Peace Treaty with Turkey and the mandate for Palestine. In this way the British and French maintained their physical presence in the region till late fifties, while providing active support to the newly established Jewish state.
In 1960s, the US assumed for itself an active role in the regional politics with three aims:
1. To secure the Israeli interests
2. To benefit from the energy resources of the region
3. To keep the former Soviet Union away from the region.
The former cold war rival, however, maintained its covert and overt presence in the region until its disintegration in 1991.
In the aftermath of Cold War, the US strengthened its hold over the region through the Gulf War-1, which was further reinforced after the unfortunate 9/11 incident.
In order to circumvent US agenda of consolidating its own domination in the regional politics, the garb of GWOT, other world powers like Russia, China and eve EU also started making overt and covert inroads in the regional politics to secure their interests with specific of their future energy requirements.
Unfortunately instead of resolving the Arab-Israel conflict over Palestine they indulged into involvements and conspiracies, thereby giving birth to a number of issues like, Iran-Iraq war, invasion of Kuwait by Iraq (which allowed US intervention), the continuing US invasion of Iraq, Israeli aggression on Lebanon, intimidating threats over US-Iran nuclear stand-off having regional reservations, and the growing trend of terrorism which emanated from the above mentioned discriminations.
The only logical outcome of the above can be: the West takes steps that would ask for response by force (which is now being termed as Terrorism) and in retaliation it can establish foothold anywhere that it wants.
A brief evaluation of the following events would give the readers a better idea of the preceding claim:
Palestine Issue:
Historically, Palestinian territory includes areas now referred to as Israel, West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Palestine Issue is considered to be the mother of all the conflicts that took place in the region, post WW-2.
Till 1992, around 81% population consisted of Arab Muslims and Christian and remaining 12% was a Jewish community. After the Balfour Declaration of 1917 and developments there after, in November 1947 the UN voted on favor of Resolution 181, calling for partitioning of Palestine for the creation of two states; a Jewish state on 56% of territory and the Arab state on remaining 44%, but by the time Britain withdrew on termination of its mandate, Israeli gangs captured even most of the land intended for the Arab State (Palestine), thus it controlled almost ¾ of the Palestinian territory.
The Israeli appearance on the world map through occupation of Arab land threatened the regional Arab Muslim countries. Nationalisation of Strait of Tiran (Suez Canal) by frustrated Egypt, resulted into the first Arab Israel war in 1957. As the result of the Suez War, Palestinians established their first formal resistance movement, namely the Fatah and later PLO in 1964.
Israel made massive territorial gains in second Arab-Israel war, ending without any gain by Arab war wagers. US formal backing of the Zionist State in the heart of Arab world continued till date despite temporary suspension of oil supply by the Arab members of OPEC in 1973. In the following years, a number of US broked peace agreements were concluded between Israel, Arabs and Palestinians, but none was honored by Israel, rather a reign of terror was unleashed on Palestinians US backed Zionist state, which continue even today.
Over the years, Israels repressive policies resulted in creation of Palestinian armed resistance groups like Hamas and Al Aqsa Martyr Brigade, which have now attained political strength.
The menace of violence now renamed as terrorism in the post 9/11 scenario, is primarily as outcome of widespread conflicts, injustices, unjustified invasions and occupations, which has deeply impacted in the psyche of people over the period of time.
Creation of Israel in the heartland of Arab under the patronage of western powers is the root cause of terrorism. After expanding her territory at the cost of Palestinian, Israel has been indiscriminately killing the innocent citizens, while the West even does not point any finger on its actions, but the ill armed Palestinians are dubbed as terrorists.
The economic exploitation of Palestinians is yet another form of terrorism, The measures adopted by Israel to make her security foolproof have blocked the routes leading into various cities, thus denying Palestinian labors and workers to earn their living
The International Court of Justice had declared the Israeli barrier unlawful in July 2004.
Double Standard of the West
As a successor of Yaser Arafat, President Mehmood Abbas, remained in constant confrontation with democratically elected Hamas government throughout 2006.
Pursuing their double standards of democracy (the West claims itself to be the champion of Democracy and admits the right of democratically governments all over the world-less in Palestine), Israel and US led West pledged not to negotiate with Hamas led Palestinian government, and also not to provide financial aid until it agreed to renounce what they called terrorism and recognize Israel.
The international community also suspended aid to the Hamas-led government, causing an acute financial crisis.
US and Israeli conspiracies and self-interest between Hamas and Fateh leadership resulted into fighting, thus killing and kidnapping of officials on both side started. They both agreed on making a broad based Palestinian National Government having both the representation of Hamas and Fetah through Macca Accord-February 2007.
But surprisingly after agreeing on the accord Mehmood Abbas suspended the government on his return from Macca, thus practically splitting Palestine into Hamas controlled Gaza and Fatah controlled West Bank.
US and Israel immediately rushed to assist Mehmood Abbas led Fatah outfit with financial and military aid against Hamas. One would wonder the kind of conspiracy being invented inside Palestine by creating a gulf between the two leading parties.
Another set back to the Palestinian cause was the US hosted peace conference in Annapolis on 27 November 2007. It was attended by over 40 international delegates including Arabs, Israel and Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority leadership.
The conference achieved nothing except and agreement between the Israeli Prime Minister and the Palestinian President to undertake measures for reaching to a two state solution as perceived in Oslo Accord of 1983 and the failed RoadMap of Middle East 2003.
The main emphasis was on to make an agreement for the creation of two states before the end of 2008. Surprisingly there was no mention of the humanitarian crisis in Hamas dominated Gaza due to the economic blockade by Israel since July 2007.
Throughout the conference Israel was named as a Jewish State, thereby leaving no room for the return of Palestinian refugees or current non Jewish inhabitants even if peace is made in future.
The conference indeed was meant to secure the future of Israel, which was indirectly guaranteed by the presence of Arab representatives there.
The symbolic participation of 16 Arab delegates was exploited for normalization of relations with Israel. After casting their vote of consent these Arab countries would not be able to exert any pressure on Israel for a just solution of the Palestine issue. As put by Inter Press Service, Israel succeeded in neutralizing the historic Arab refusal to normalize relations, and the Arab side got nothing in return. This dismal showing further diminishes the popular standing of the Arab regimes.
After reading the above text most of you must be clear behind the aim of establishing a Jewish State in the heartland of Arab. The only logical outcome of these actions comes to the fact that with the presence of a pro-West state in Arab land a continued pressure and threat generation is possible over the entire region.
Pressure on Iranian Nuclear Program
Iran renewed its nuclear program in 1990s.
In 2002 an Iranian dissident group revealed the sites and secret development of its nuclear program.
In August 2006 EU offered Iran to built a safe, economically viable and proliferation-proof civil nuclear power generation and research program, to which Iran refused.
In reality, EU and US offer intended to entice Iran into a binding commitment not to build nuclear weapons by offering fuel and other long term support.
Upon refusal these countries accused Iran of a clandestine plan to develop nuclear weapons.
According to IAEA presently Iran does not possess nuclear weapons.
In May 2007 IAEA disclosed that Iran could develop nuclear weapons in a period of 3 years.
IAEA, however did not confirm any signs of preparation of WMD by Iran till date.
IAEA has argued that instead of using force to dissuade countries from developing Nukes, the underlying cause should be addressed.
In December 2007 the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) declared that Iran has ended any nuclear related program.
This report should have ended all misconceptions about Irans nuclear program, but the West is still skeptical about Uranium enrichment, explosive experiments and missile development; all having bearing on nuclear weapon related activities.
In February 2008 IAEA quashed the Western point of view about Irans nuclear program by confirming that all major past issues surrounding Orans nuclear program had been fully resolved and no issues are outstanding.
Brushing aside all the POSITIVE reports of its NIE and IAEA, UNSC smacked new sanctions on Iran, in March 2008, almost unanimously.
Being signatory of NPT Oran declares that her nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes, aiming to fulfill energy needs of its rapidly increasing population, which has necessitated a proportionate expansion of economy and industrial base.
Now most of you must be thinking that Iran being an oil rich country, why would it worry about its energy needs, well here is the answer:
In order to preserve its oil resources, Iran regularly imports gasoline and electricity, thus consider its right to DIVERSIFY her energy generation.
Instead of wasting valuable oil for electricity generation Iran would like to use it for high value products and exports.
Iran also argues that nuclear power makes fairly good economic sense.
Although building reactors is expensive, but their subsequent operating costs are low and stable and increasingly competitive as fossil-fuel prices rise.
In May 2007 Iranian President said, The enemies aim to prevent us from using peaceful nuclear technology is not for scientific reasons, but because they want to eradicate the roots of the principles of the Islamic Republic.
The Reasons Behind Wests Concerns over Iranian Nuclear Program
The apparent reason behind Wests resistance lies in the Middle Eastern geopolitics.
US consider a nuclear-armed Iran will have four implications:
a. The fabulous change in the balance of power in the Middle East by weakening US influence (remember the other poorly militarized Arab states, as they will rush towards Iran in case of conflict)
b. It will encourage other regional nations to develop overt nuclear programs of their own
c. Nuclear weapons might fall in the hands of religious extremist.
d. Lastly, the most important; the program will pose a serious threat to Israel, a US strategic partner in the Middle East. (Remember the wipe out Israel slogan?)
Regional Perspectives
The US after failing to convince Iran adopted a rough line, but found itself in a state of fix due to the unexpected resentment shown by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states against any military action on Iran.
Though historically Iran had strained relations with the GCC states. On Irans formal declaration of Uranium enrichment program, these militarily weak states expressed their deep concerns and even demanded a joint nuclear program of their own.
But luckily the Iranian leadership was quick to assure GCC states that her nuclear program was never intended against regional Muslim states.
For restoring regional confidence, Mr Ahmadinejad paid a brief visit to some of the Gulf countries in 2007, where he received a red carpet reception. Subsequently he was specially invited to attend the annual session of GCC held in December 2007 in Doha.
This was a first ever invitation extended to a non Gulf leader in 27 years history of GCC!
Unexpectedly he neither made a mention of Tehrans nuclear program, nor his commitment to stabilize the situation in Iraq, but he offered Tehrans cooperation in the field of economy and security, by creation of a collective security arrangement with the GCC, and collective security measure without foreign interference.
Since regional states already had a n unpleasant experience of supporting the US for its invasion of Iraq, therefore, this time the GCC has specifically assured Iran, that the US will not be allowed to use their territories for any military, security or intelligence activities against Iran (this definitely must have fallen hard on the West)
Iran also proposed a ten points plan for establishment of a Gulf Security and Cooperation Organization, which include six GCC states, Iran and Iraq.
I am sure that the above text would definitely clarify certain doubts and confusions over the cloud of terrorism and will show a larger picture behind the Western agenda of domination the Middle East, suppressing Iran and expanding it reach towards South Asia. A powerful Iran poses a serious threat to the Western plans of dominating the energy resources of world.
continued ..would add more when i fair my text written elsehwhere...
Players in Central Asian Resources:
CARs since their independence have seen instability and have remained vulnerable to the interventions of various interested parties. This has lead to complex maneuvers by the states with the outcome of various alliances, counter-alliances and conspiracies. A few of these have been discussed in the succeeding paragraphs:
Russia
During the Great Game, Russia gained control of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, which was strengthened during the Soviet period. After the break of the USSR, though this influence faced a down fall but Russia still continues to exercise significant control over the region. Moreover, Russia will never want US hegemony over the Caspian energy resources; hence Russia would like to continue controlling export of oil and gas to the rest of the world.
The US
The US has three main goals in the region:-
1. The support for the sovereignty and independence of the countries of the region.
2. Support for its own commercial involvement in the regions oil production
3. Export and diversification of world oil supplies to reduce future dependence on Persian Gulf oil.
4. Counter Russian and Chinese influence over the Central Asian resources.
While keeping these goals in mind the US also wants to contain Iran and its desire for nuclear capability.
Why Pakistan Pinches the West?
The only Muslims States holding Nukes
Pakistan is the only Muslims state has declared Nuclear Weapons. A Muslim Nuclear State actually doesnt quite fit in the New World as envisaged by the West. It poses a number of threats and concerns to them. First, the Islamic Bomb as many westerners call it jeopardizes the dream of Western hegemony over the free world.
Islam, the fastest-growing religion in the world with a Muslim community which comprises of about 1 billion followers on all five continents could put at risk the Western dominance over the world and its resources. Proliferation of Nuclear Technology among other Muslim states has been giving the West scary nightmares since the day Pakistan started its Nuclear Program under the pretext of balancing the power dynamics in the Sub-Continent. This combined with the fact the Muslim world holds the key to the worlds largest energy resources would act as an anti-relaxin for the West.
Geostrategic Location
Pakistans unique geostrategic location enables it to play a vital role in facilitating the export of energy resources from CARs to the rest of the world. As once said by General Musharraf, the CARs are the head of a funnel and Pakistan is the opening to it (paraphrased-as I dont exactly remember the wordings)
Pakistan forms the new center of the world. Its location affects more than one country in a sense that not only it allows new energy corridors to flow through itself, but it also serve as a center for monitoring/scrutinizing/checking all sort of activity in and around the Arabian Sea.
Any proprietor who has access to the ports here can play the role of a watchman and keep an eye on all the naval and commercial activity, thus retaining it the capability of virtually controlling the sea routes connecting the Eastern and Western halve.
Just 250 miles from the straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 per cent of the worlds oil supplies flow, the port is strategically located to serve as a key shipping point in the region.
Pakistan is a junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, a way from resource efficient countries (CARs) to resource deficient countries (india and China). It acts as a bridge between South Asia and South West Asia; Iran and Afghanistan are energy abundant while India and China are lacking of. China finds way to Indian ocean and Arabian Sea through Korakaram. China with its fastest economic growth rate of 9%; is developing its southern provinces because its own port is 4500 km away from Sinkiang but Gawader is 2500 km away.
Pakistan offers to CARs the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran (4500 km) or Turkey (5000 km). Land locked Afganistan now at the phase of Reconstruction, finds its ways through Pakistan. Gawader port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CARs and South East Asian Countries.
ASEAN Economic Blocs: SAARC, ECO. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries. Qatar Pakistan and Turkmenistan Pipeline projects highlights the position.
Pakistan would get 400 million dollar annually if IPI gets success (but who would like it to happen).
Apart from this Pakistan also have its political importance: US interests in the regions to contain the Growing China, nuclear Iran, terrorist Afghanistan, and to benefit from the market of India, security and business are two main US interests in the region.
Today the political scenario of the region is tinged with pre emption policy and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, Irans nuclear program, Indias geopolitical muscles(new strategic deal with US) to gain the hegemony and to counter the The Rise of China which has earned all the qualities to change unipolar world into Bipolar world.
In all these issues, Pakistan is directly or indirectly involved, especially after Al Qaeda operations. The American think tanks have repeatedly accepted that war against terror could never be won without the help of Pakistan.
Pak-China Relations
A Little Foreword
The bi-lateral relationship between the two countries has a long history of uninterrupted, trust-bound and all weather relationship. This tactical friendship has survived numerous geo-strategic changes to include:-
1. Improving Sino-Indian relations from 1989 onwards
2. The collapse of the Soviet Union
3. Developments after 9/11 especially with Pakistan as a frontline state in the war against terror
4. The recent Indo-US strategic convergence.
A Hint from the History
Pakistan recognized the Peoples Republic of China in 1950, being the third non-communist state and the first Muslim state to do so, following which the two nations established formal diplomatic relations.
Bilateral relations were further emphasised at the Bandung Conference in 1955, where talks between the two heads of state played an important role in promoting understanding, and developing friendly relations and cooperation between the two countries.
In 1961, Pakistan furthered relations when it voted for a bill concerning the restoration of Chinas legitimate rights in the UN.
Deterioration in Sino-Indian relations, which culminated in the 1962 war, provided further opportunities for Sino-Pak cooperation and in 1963 both countries signed an agreement on border relations, and the construction of a road linking Chinas Xinjian-Uygur autonomous region with the northern areas of Pakistan.
They signed their first trade agreement in 1963 and, in the years that followed, diplomatic exchanges increased significantly.
Their strategic partnership was initially driven by the mutual need to counter the Soviet Union and India, and China supported Pakistan in its two wars against India, in 1965 and 1971, with both military and economic assistance.
The military alliance led further to the creation of a Joint Committee for Economy, Trade and Technology in 1982, and China soon began, in the late 1980s, discussing the possible sales of M-11 missiles and related technology to Pakistan.
In 2005, China and Pakistan signed a landmark Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation, whereby they committed that neither party will join any alliance or bloc which infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of either nation, while simultaneously agreeing that both parties would not conclude treaties of this nature with any 3rd party.
In short, during the post Cold War era, China emerged as Pakistans most important strategic guarantor vis-à-vis India.
China assisted Pakistan with the building of its nuclear technology complex.
China has been Pakistans most important source of modern conventional weaponry and a vital source of trade and investment.
Chinas close ties with Pakistan allowed the former a greater sphere of influence extending to South Asia, as well as a bridge between the Muslim world and Beijing.
The relationship is still of great strategic importance today where, for the few decades, the basis of Pakistans foreign policy has been its military relationship with China, and now that China is trying to build its global sphere of influence- for which it needs Pakistan- it doesnt mind if Pakistan becomes a regional power in the meantime.
Another important facet of Pak-China relation can be reflected in the following event:
In February 2006, four days after the killing of 3 Chinese engineers in Hub in Balochistan, and soon before the arrival of President George W. Bush in Islamabad, President Pervez Musharraf made a short visit to China from February 20 to February 25.
The timing of the visit suggested, perhaps, that Pakistan gives greater priority to its strategic partnership with China than it does to its Major Non Nuclear Ally (MNNA) status with the US.
During his visit, President Musharraf emphasised on the need to improve relations with China with regard to trade and investment, as well as nuclear energy co-operation and defence co-operation.
The Chinese government, in a highly symbolic act, released special postage stamps to commemorate President Musharrafs visit and 55 years of diplomatic relations.
This visit not only takes a special place in the history just because Bushs impending visit but also because of the encouraging remarks from both the side.
I have jotted down a few below:-
Chinese President Hu Jinato referred to President Musharraf as an old friend of the Chinese people and praised him for making an important contribution to the development of relations.
He also went on to hail the trip as another landmark in the glorious history of bilateral relations whereby, the friendship between the two countries has matured into a comprehensive strategic partnership for peace and development,
To which Musharraf replied that Our friendship is deeper than the ocean, and higher than the mountain.
Furthermore, in a message to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao said China-Pakistan relations have withstood the tests of internationally changing situations and have become a model of living in amity among countries.
An even stronger statement, however, came from the then Pakistans Information Minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, when he told a TV interviewer that Pakistan would stand behind China if the United States ever tried to besiege it, suggesting again a preference for China over the United States.
For China, such a statement was comforting on the eve of President Bushs visit to Islamabad while, for Washington, it served as a reminder.
Pakistan because of its strategically important location also provides China, especially its western part, with easy access to the Arabian sea and the vast oil and gas resources of the Middle East.
This Convergence of Strategic Interests, more than anything else, provides a sound basis for the further development of Pakistan-China relations.
Pakistan is Allowing China to Project its Might Across the Subcontinent
Why Balochistan is Burning?
Why China is bent upon Pakistan?
The answer to the above questions is responded below:-
China is projecting its might across the subcontinent through its strategic presence at the Gwadar Port project.
Construction of the port began in March 2002 after the Chinese agreed to provide $198 million of the $248 million required for Phase I of the project.
China has also invested in support infrastructure by financing a highway link from Gwadar to a central Balochistan town, connecting Karachi and Quetta.
It is pertinent to mention that China was initially reluctant to help with the construction of the port, though finally agreed to fund it provided that it had sovereign guarantees to the port facilities. Pakistan agreed to this condition, resulting in a disgruntled United States.
Just 250 miles from the straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 per cent of the worlds oil supplies flow, the port is strategically located to serve as a key shipping point in the region. It is of great strategic value as it augments Pakistans importance in the region, while allowing China to diversify and secure its crude oil import routes and simultaneously gain access to the Persian Gulf.
Under a MOU signed between China and Pakistan, China is also to build a 90 km highway link connecting the Chinese side of the Karakoram highway to the Russian built highway network that already connects all the five Central Asian Republics.
This regional highway network will directly link Gwadar to Xinjiang and the landlocked Central Asian Republics.
The Karakoram highway and the coastal highway will both serve as vital trade routes and, considering that the existing Karakoram highway already connects Western China to Pakistan, any further expansion of the line along with prospective linkages to Gwadar via the planned Ratodero-Khuzdar road would make it the shortest and most viable route connecting Gwadar to Western China.
This manifests Chinas attempt to exert its influence far beyond its borders in order to sustain its security interests, as well as consolidate its friendship with Pakistan through large scale collaborative projects.
Through the construction of the Gwadar port, Beijing also will gain considerable influence in the region, giving it a strategic entrance to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, while allowing it to closely monitor US naval activity and US- Indian maritime cooperation.
This doubtlessly is a cause for alarm and unease to both India and the US as the port will enable China to monitor its energy shipments from the Persian Gulf, while simultaneously offering it the option of a safer alternative passage for energy imports from Central Asia in the event of a hostile situation.
American suspicion of Chinese intentions at Gwadar is corroborated by an internal report prepared for the Pentagon entitled Energy Futures in Asia which states that Beijing has already has set up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar which monitor ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea.
In addition, the port and the other supporting infrastructure will help integrate Pakistan into the Chinese economy by out sourcing low tech, basic production and manufacturing jobs, making it into a giant factory floor for China.
Having invested $400 million in the project, the port will be accessible for Chinese imports and exports through overland links that stretch across the Karakoram Highway.
For Pakistan as well, the benefits are profound, where to quote President Musharraf, as and when needed the Chinese navy could be in Gwadar to give befitting replies to everyone. This statement was further reinforced by Pakistans recent designation of the port area as a sensitive defence area.
Gwadar would inhibit Indias ability to blockade Pakistan , and permit China to supply Pakistan by land and sea during wartime.
Essentially, Pakistan is interested in the project to gain strategic leverage so that it is less vulnerable to the dominant Indian navy.
The construction of the port and the highway, by making Pakistan a regional trade-hub for commercial traffic, will also boost domestic economic development, and influence the geo-strategic environment of the region.
The port will enable the transfer of Central Asias vast energy resources to world markets, earning Pakistan significant profits in transit fees, as well as attract considerable investment into Balochistan.
In addition, discussions are already underway to designate the Gwadar port as a free trade zone, while some members of the Pakistani business community advocate the eventual designation of the Gwadar port as an export processing zone with special incentives extended to Chinese companies.
Moreover, the opening of international trade through Gwadar can create new stakeholders in Afghanistan who will become beneficiaries of the transit trade to Central Asia. This in turn can be expected to act as an incentive for normalising the situation in the wartorn country, and also remove the existing misgivings between Kabul and Islamabad.
Gwadar thus presents a good opportunity for fostering good neighbourly relations between Pakistan and the region to its immediate northwest.
I dont think so that this all will make the US (the West) and india happy and comfortable, so the reasons are obvious.
US Reponse/Reasons Behind US involvement in Afghanistan and surroundings and the Covert Ops
In order to curtail the possibility of such an eventuality the US is trying to create problems for Pakistan, so that in the longer the it can control Pakistan and contain Chinese influence over the Caspian energy resources. Moreover, the eyes and ear that Gwadar port will provide to China are in no way digestible to the US and india.
In addition Iran is also one of the stake holders in this context, as after Gwadar port starts functioning, its Bandar-e Abbās and Chahbahar ports would face a serious setback, as currently 40% of worlds oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
The success of Gwadar port rests on the following pillars in my personal opinion:-
1. Continued flawless relationship between Pakistan and China.
2. Stability and strong governess inside Pakistan.
3. Support of the entire nation.
4. Support of all the factions in the society to include the:
a. The minorities
b. Our Pukhtoon brothers
c. Our Baloch brothers
d. Some factions inside Sindh
5. Peace and stability in NWFP and Baluchistan so that investors can be attracted.
6. Assurance of adequate share and employment to the Balochs.
7. Removing all sort of sections that support independence and separatism inside Baluchistan and NWFP.
8. Complete unity among all the sub-nations.
9. Complete trust on the Army by the people in every Province.
10. Complete hold of Government and Law Enforcement Agencies (LAEs) inside the troubled region, thus necessitating construction of Military Cantonments, Police Station and Para-Military setups.
11. Complete ban on smuggling, illegal weapons and free exchange of visitors between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
12. Complete trust of Chinese and other employers as regards to their security and welfare.
13. Complete harmony between the political parties.
14. Complete harmony among all the factions of the Country (Sindhi, Balochi, Pathan, Punjabi, Sunni, Shia, Chritians, Hindus and other minorities)
15. Cut down on corruption.
16. Construction of Mega Projects for Power Generation (now you know why Dams were not being built or I must say were not allowed to built)
(These are just the points which came to me at random, additions, deletions and modifications are welcomed)
Now if any sane person would keep the above mentioned points and the Countrys law and order situation after 9/11 in view, he or she would easily come to know about who all and which all hands can be involved behind the Balochistans, NWFPs, Swats and the general security situation in the country!
Now you can very easily point figures.
You dont need to be a think-tank to conclude these deductions.
But still let me make it easy for you:
Fueling the insurgency in Balochistan and keeping it boiling, benefits:-
1. The US (the West in general), because:
a. It opposes Chinese dominance of the Arabian Sea
b. Curtail Pakistan from reaping the fruits of Gwadar
c. Gives it a chance to continue its influence over and around the countries in the vicinity of Gwadar
2. India, because:
a. It pleases india as Pakistan bleeds
b. Reciprocate what Pakistani moral support to Kashmiri freedom-fighters has been enacting to the Indian army
c. Would stop Pakistan from having guud relations with Afghanistan-thus enabling india to open two-frontal war with Pakistan.
3. Iran, due to:
a. The fact that it would allow Iran to control the flow of oil in the Hormuz
b. Would leave its shops open to the world market
c. Would allow it to re-route the energy-supply corridors directly from the CARs through Afghanistan, thus by passing Gawadar (Pakistan) altogether.
This article has been written by myself. i have tried to converge many thoughts that i had after reading numerous books, aritcles and online stuff. Though, some facts are taken from other articles and similar texts but most of te text represents my personal views. Attributaion to anything in the article would be readily available on demand.
Constructive criticism is welcomed.
Text in green was added afterwards. Give some reading to it....
WHY PAKISTAN IS IN TROUBLE?
The dawn of 21st Century has seen the rise of a New Great Game for control of the world energy resources, particularly in the Central Asia and Middle East. The struggle for control over these energy banks, as I call them, has lead to a tale of political rivalries, commercial competitions and geostrategic challenges. Central Asia, especially the Caspian region is one of the largest unexploited hydro carbon energy sources in the world. Possible reserves of oil are estimated to be as high as 200 billion barrels; moreover it also inherits large reserves of gas (estimated to 8 trillion cubic meters).
Birth of inexperienced newly independent states of Central Asia after the demise of Soviet Union has led to a different sort of a competition and quarrel among the world powers and stake holders, but this time the playing field is complex and complicated with vast problems and difficulties as the region is scared with war and
Since the gap between demand and supply is on the rise, the Central Asian energy resources offer and important alternative with diversifies supply routes. This in turn give the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and its neighboring countries a great opportunity to earn great dividends out of the energy resources present there.
A Piece from History
This phenomenon of capturing all the energy banks is not new to this century. Throughout the 20th century Caspian oil has played a key role in shaping the world politics. This thinking, from the late 19th century to the 2nd World War has defined OIL as a strategic raw material to be monopolized.
I believe that it is the history that wants to repeat itself. Previously it was the Middle East and now its place have been taken by CARs and the countries that would route it out to the world.
Many readers would be thinking that how could the Middle East relate to Pakistan, yes it do and here it is why: (while reading through the following please keep in mind the similarities between the Middle Eastern oil reach states and the CARs, alongwith and eye over the countries that surround CARs)
The Middle East was actually known as West Asia and primitively as Near Asia, but renamed as Middle east during the WW2. It is geographically located at the juncture of Europe, Asia and Africa. Traditionally it has been serving as a commercial, cultural and military route between the East and the West. With 21 constituent states it stretches from from the borders of Pakistan in the East to North Africa up to Morocco.
Historically Middle East has never been a geographic expression, but its economics and political recognition has been more prominent.
The geostrategic importance of the region is high as to two major international waterways: the Suez Canal and the Turkish Straits, around whom revolved the 20th century political and military struggles of major powers, are located in Middle East. This fact definitely affects the entire global political balance.
This shouldnt come to you as a news, as according to a report the desert sands of the Middle east holds 2 out of every 3 barrels of oil in the world! Today the region holds 67% of the total oils reserves in the world. With the new discoveries the Middle East and North Africa are likely to control 83% of oil reserves of the world by the year 2020.
The industrialized world is mainly dependent on the Persian Gulf states for their oil supply and it was due to this fact that this region was and is engulfed in turmoil.
The Conspiracies
In an attempt to establish their grip, the first conspiracy devised against the region overpowering of the Ottoman Empire by the Allies during WW-1.
Middle East was carved up into nation states, mandates and protectorates, all became independent following WW-1. Through the discriminatory Sykes-Picot Agreement-1916, Britain and France divided the Middle East in a manner that well suited them, rather to the Arabs, some of whom supported the Allies.
In volition of secret agreement of supporting Britain against Ottoman Empire, made in 1915 between Sir Henry McMahon and Sharif Hussayn (Governor of Hijaz), Britain did not grant Palestine under the Arab control. Instead through Balfour Declaration-1917, Britain got into making a plot with leading Zionists and France to create a Jewish state at the Palestine land.
The declaration was a classified statement of the British government for supporting a Jewish national home in the Palestine. It was later incorporated into the Sevres Peace Treaty with Turkey and the mandate for Palestine. In this way the British and French maintained their physical presence in the region till late fifties, while providing active support to the newly established Jewish state.
In 1960s, the US assumed for itself an active role in the regional politics with three aims:
1. To secure the Israeli interests
2. To benefit from the energy resources of the region
3. To keep the former Soviet Union away from the region.
The former cold war rival, however, maintained its covert and overt presence in the region until its disintegration in 1991.
In the aftermath of Cold War, the US strengthened its hold over the region through the Gulf War-1, which was further reinforced after the unfortunate 9/11 incident.
In order to circumvent US agenda of consolidating its own domination in the regional politics, the garb of GWOT, other world powers like Russia, China and eve EU also started making overt and covert inroads in the regional politics to secure their interests with specific of their future energy requirements.
Unfortunately instead of resolving the Arab-Israel conflict over Palestine they indulged into involvements and conspiracies, thereby giving birth to a number of issues like, Iran-Iraq war, invasion of Kuwait by Iraq (which allowed US intervention), the continuing US invasion of Iraq, Israeli aggression on Lebanon, intimidating threats over US-Iran nuclear stand-off having regional reservations, and the growing trend of terrorism which emanated from the above mentioned discriminations.
The only logical outcome of the above can be: the West takes steps that would ask for response by force (which is now being termed as Terrorism) and in retaliation it can establish foothold anywhere that it wants.
A brief evaluation of the following events would give the readers a better idea of the preceding claim:
Palestine Issue:
Historically, Palestinian territory includes areas now referred to as Israel, West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Palestine Issue is considered to be the mother of all the conflicts that took place in the region, post WW-2.
Till 1992, around 81% population consisted of Arab Muslims and Christian and remaining 12% was a Jewish community. After the Balfour Declaration of 1917 and developments there after, in November 1947 the UN voted on favor of Resolution 181, calling for partitioning of Palestine for the creation of two states; a Jewish state on 56% of territory and the Arab state on remaining 44%, but by the time Britain withdrew on termination of its mandate, Israeli gangs captured even most of the land intended for the Arab State (Palestine), thus it controlled almost ¾ of the Palestinian territory.
The Israeli appearance on the world map through occupation of Arab land threatened the regional Arab Muslim countries. Nationalisation of Strait of Tiran (Suez Canal) by frustrated Egypt, resulted into the first Arab Israel war in 1957. As the result of the Suez War, Palestinians established their first formal resistance movement, namely the Fatah and later PLO in 1964.
Israel made massive territorial gains in second Arab-Israel war, ending without any gain by Arab war wagers. US formal backing of the Zionist State in the heart of Arab world continued till date despite temporary suspension of oil supply by the Arab members of OPEC in 1973. In the following years, a number of US broked peace agreements were concluded between Israel, Arabs and Palestinians, but none was honored by Israel, rather a reign of terror was unleashed on Palestinians US backed Zionist state, which continue even today.
Over the years, Israels repressive policies resulted in creation of Palestinian armed resistance groups like Hamas and Al Aqsa Martyr Brigade, which have now attained political strength.
The menace of violence now renamed as terrorism in the post 9/11 scenario, is primarily as outcome of widespread conflicts, injustices, unjustified invasions and occupations, which has deeply impacted in the psyche of people over the period of time.
Creation of Israel in the heartland of Arab under the patronage of western powers is the root cause of terrorism. After expanding her territory at the cost of Palestinian, Israel has been indiscriminately killing the innocent citizens, while the West even does not point any finger on its actions, but the ill armed Palestinians are dubbed as terrorists.
The economic exploitation of Palestinians is yet another form of terrorism, The measures adopted by Israel to make her security foolproof have blocked the routes leading into various cities, thus denying Palestinian labors and workers to earn their living
The International Court of Justice had declared the Israeli barrier unlawful in July 2004.
Double Standard of the West
As a successor of Yaser Arafat, President Mehmood Abbas, remained in constant confrontation with democratically elected Hamas government throughout 2006.
Pursuing their double standards of democracy (the West claims itself to be the champion of Democracy and admits the right of democratically governments all over the world-less in Palestine), Israel and US led West pledged not to negotiate with Hamas led Palestinian government, and also not to provide financial aid until it agreed to renounce what they called terrorism and recognize Israel.
The international community also suspended aid to the Hamas-led government, causing an acute financial crisis.
US and Israeli conspiracies and self-interest between Hamas and Fateh leadership resulted into fighting, thus killing and kidnapping of officials on both side started. They both agreed on making a broad based Palestinian National Government having both the representation of Hamas and Fetah through Macca Accord-February 2007.
But surprisingly after agreeing on the accord Mehmood Abbas suspended the government on his return from Macca, thus practically splitting Palestine into Hamas controlled Gaza and Fatah controlled West Bank.
US and Israel immediately rushed to assist Mehmood Abbas led Fatah outfit with financial and military aid against Hamas. One would wonder the kind of conspiracy being invented inside Palestine by creating a gulf between the two leading parties.
Another set back to the Palestinian cause was the US hosted peace conference in Annapolis on 27 November 2007. It was attended by over 40 international delegates including Arabs, Israel and Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority leadership.
The conference achieved nothing except and agreement between the Israeli Prime Minister and the Palestinian President to undertake measures for reaching to a two state solution as perceived in Oslo Accord of 1983 and the failed RoadMap of Middle East 2003.
The main emphasis was on to make an agreement for the creation of two states before the end of 2008. Surprisingly there was no mention of the humanitarian crisis in Hamas dominated Gaza due to the economic blockade by Israel since July 2007.
Throughout the conference Israel was named as a Jewish State, thereby leaving no room for the return of Palestinian refugees or current non Jewish inhabitants even if peace is made in future.
The conference indeed was meant to secure the future of Israel, which was indirectly guaranteed by the presence of Arab representatives there.
The symbolic participation of 16 Arab delegates was exploited for normalization of relations with Israel. After casting their vote of consent these Arab countries would not be able to exert any pressure on Israel for a just solution of the Palestine issue. As put by Inter Press Service, Israel succeeded in neutralizing the historic Arab refusal to normalize relations, and the Arab side got nothing in return. This dismal showing further diminishes the popular standing of the Arab regimes.
After reading the above text most of you must be clear behind the aim of establishing a Jewish State in the heartland of Arab. The only logical outcome of these actions comes to the fact that with the presence of a pro-West state in Arab land a continued pressure and threat generation is possible over the entire region.
Pressure on Iranian Nuclear Program
Iran renewed its nuclear program in 1990s.
In 2002 an Iranian dissident group revealed the sites and secret development of its nuclear program.
In August 2006 EU offered Iran to built a safe, economically viable and proliferation-proof civil nuclear power generation and research program, to which Iran refused.
In reality, EU and US offer intended to entice Iran into a binding commitment not to build nuclear weapons by offering fuel and other long term support.
Upon refusal these countries accused Iran of a clandestine plan to develop nuclear weapons.
According to IAEA presently Iran does not possess nuclear weapons.
In May 2007 IAEA disclosed that Iran could develop nuclear weapons in a period of 3 years.
IAEA, however did not confirm any signs of preparation of WMD by Iran till date.
IAEA has argued that instead of using force to dissuade countries from developing Nukes, the underlying cause should be addressed.
In December 2007 the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) declared that Iran has ended any nuclear related program.
This report should have ended all misconceptions about Irans nuclear program, but the West is still skeptical about Uranium enrichment, explosive experiments and missile development; all having bearing on nuclear weapon related activities.
In February 2008 IAEA quashed the Western point of view about Irans nuclear program by confirming that all major past issues surrounding Orans nuclear program had been fully resolved and no issues are outstanding.
Brushing aside all the POSITIVE reports of its NIE and IAEA, UNSC smacked new sanctions on Iran, in March 2008, almost unanimously.
Being signatory of NPT Oran declares that her nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes, aiming to fulfill energy needs of its rapidly increasing population, which has necessitated a proportionate expansion of economy and industrial base.
Now most of you must be thinking that Iran being an oil rich country, why would it worry about its energy needs, well here is the answer:
In order to preserve its oil resources, Iran regularly imports gasoline and electricity, thus consider its right to DIVERSIFY her energy generation.
Instead of wasting valuable oil for electricity generation Iran would like to use it for high value products and exports.
Iran also argues that nuclear power makes fairly good economic sense.
Although building reactors is expensive, but their subsequent operating costs are low and stable and increasingly competitive as fossil-fuel prices rise.
In May 2007 Iranian President said, The enemies aim to prevent us from using peaceful nuclear technology is not for scientific reasons, but because they want to eradicate the roots of the principles of the Islamic Republic.
The Reasons Behind Wests Concerns over Iranian Nuclear Program
The apparent reason behind Wests resistance lies in the Middle Eastern geopolitics.
US consider a nuclear-armed Iran will have four implications:
a. The fabulous change in the balance of power in the Middle East by weakening US influence (remember the other poorly militarized Arab states, as they will rush towards Iran in case of conflict)
b. It will encourage other regional nations to develop overt nuclear programs of their own
c. Nuclear weapons might fall in the hands of religious extremist.
d. Lastly, the most important; the program will pose a serious threat to Israel, a US strategic partner in the Middle East. (Remember the wipe out Israel slogan?)
Regional Perspectives
The US after failing to convince Iran adopted a rough line, but found itself in a state of fix due to the unexpected resentment shown by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states against any military action on Iran.
Though historically Iran had strained relations with the GCC states. On Irans formal declaration of Uranium enrichment program, these militarily weak states expressed their deep concerns and even demanded a joint nuclear program of their own.
But luckily the Iranian leadership was quick to assure GCC states that her nuclear program was never intended against regional Muslim states.
For restoring regional confidence, Mr Ahmadinejad paid a brief visit to some of the Gulf countries in 2007, where he received a red carpet reception. Subsequently he was specially invited to attend the annual session of GCC held in December 2007 in Doha.
This was a first ever invitation extended to a non Gulf leader in 27 years history of GCC!
Unexpectedly he neither made a mention of Tehrans nuclear program, nor his commitment to stabilize the situation in Iraq, but he offered Tehrans cooperation in the field of economy and security, by creation of a collective security arrangement with the GCC, and collective security measure without foreign interference.
Since regional states already had a n unpleasant experience of supporting the US for its invasion of Iraq, therefore, this time the GCC has specifically assured Iran, that the US will not be allowed to use their territories for any military, security or intelligence activities against Iran (this definitely must have fallen hard on the West)
Iran also proposed a ten points plan for establishment of a Gulf Security and Cooperation Organization, which include six GCC states, Iran and Iraq.
I am sure that the above text would definitely clarify certain doubts and confusions over the cloud of terrorism and will show a larger picture behind the Western agenda of domination the Middle East, suppressing Iran and expanding it reach towards South Asia. A powerful Iran poses a serious threat to the Western plans of dominating the energy resources of world.
continued ..would add more when i fair my text written elsehwhere...
Players in Central Asian Resources:
CARs since their independence have seen instability and have remained vulnerable to the interventions of various interested parties. This has lead to complex maneuvers by the states with the outcome of various alliances, counter-alliances and conspiracies. A few of these have been discussed in the succeeding paragraphs:
Russia
During the Great Game, Russia gained control of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, which was strengthened during the Soviet period. After the break of the USSR, though this influence faced a down fall but Russia still continues to exercise significant control over the region. Moreover, Russia will never want US hegemony over the Caspian energy resources; hence Russia would like to continue controlling export of oil and gas to the rest of the world.
The US
The US has three main goals in the region:-
1. The support for the sovereignty and independence of the countries of the region.
2. Support for its own commercial involvement in the regions oil production
3. Export and diversification of world oil supplies to reduce future dependence on Persian Gulf oil.
4. Counter Russian and Chinese influence over the Central Asian resources.
While keeping these goals in mind the US also wants to contain Iran and its desire for nuclear capability.
Why Pakistan Pinches the West?
The only Muslims States holding Nukes
Pakistan is the only Muslims state has declared Nuclear Weapons. A Muslim Nuclear State actually doesnt quite fit in the New World as envisaged by the West. It poses a number of threats and concerns to them. First, the Islamic Bomb as many westerners call it jeopardizes the dream of Western hegemony over the free world.
Islam, the fastest-growing religion in the world with a Muslim community which comprises of about 1 billion followers on all five continents could put at risk the Western dominance over the world and its resources. Proliferation of Nuclear Technology among other Muslim states has been giving the West scary nightmares since the day Pakistan started its Nuclear Program under the pretext of balancing the power dynamics in the Sub-Continent. This combined with the fact the Muslim world holds the key to the worlds largest energy resources would act as an anti-relaxin for the West.
Geostrategic Location
Pakistans unique geostrategic location enables it to play a vital role in facilitating the export of energy resources from CARs to the rest of the world. As once said by General Musharraf, the CARs are the head of a funnel and Pakistan is the opening to it (paraphrased-as I dont exactly remember the wordings)
Pakistan forms the new center of the world. Its location affects more than one country in a sense that not only it allows new energy corridors to flow through itself, but it also serve as a center for monitoring/scrutinizing/checking all sort of activity in and around the Arabian Sea.
Any proprietor who has access to the ports here can play the role of a watchman and keep an eye on all the naval and commercial activity, thus retaining it the capability of virtually controlling the sea routes connecting the Eastern and Western halve.
Just 250 miles from the straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 per cent of the worlds oil supplies flow, the port is strategically located to serve as a key shipping point in the region.
Pakistan is a junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, a way from resource efficient countries (CARs) to resource deficient countries (india and China). It acts as a bridge between South Asia and South West Asia; Iran and Afghanistan are energy abundant while India and China are lacking of. China finds way to Indian ocean and Arabian Sea through Korakaram. China with its fastest economic growth rate of 9%; is developing its southern provinces because its own port is 4500 km away from Sinkiang but Gawader is 2500 km away.
Pakistan offers to CARs the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran (4500 km) or Turkey (5000 km). Land locked Afganistan now at the phase of Reconstruction, finds its ways through Pakistan. Gawader port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CARs and South East Asian Countries.
ASEAN Economic Blocs: SAARC, ECO. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries. Qatar Pakistan and Turkmenistan Pipeline projects highlights the position.
Pakistan would get 400 million dollar annually if IPI gets success (but who would like it to happen).
Apart from this Pakistan also have its political importance: US interests in the regions to contain the Growing China, nuclear Iran, terrorist Afghanistan, and to benefit from the market of India, security and business are two main US interests in the region.
Today the political scenario of the region is tinged with pre emption policy and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, Irans nuclear program, Indias geopolitical muscles(new strategic deal with US) to gain the hegemony and to counter the The Rise of China which has earned all the qualities to change unipolar world into Bipolar world.
In all these issues, Pakistan is directly or indirectly involved, especially after Al Qaeda operations. The American think tanks have repeatedly accepted that war against terror could never be won without the help of Pakistan.
Pak-China Relations
A Little Foreword
The bi-lateral relationship between the two countries has a long history of uninterrupted, trust-bound and all weather relationship. This tactical friendship has survived numerous geo-strategic changes to include:-
1. Improving Sino-Indian relations from 1989 onwards
2. The collapse of the Soviet Union
3. Developments after 9/11 especially with Pakistan as a frontline state in the war against terror
4. The recent Indo-US strategic convergence.
A Hint from the History
Pakistan recognized the Peoples Republic of China in 1950, being the third non-communist state and the first Muslim state to do so, following which the two nations established formal diplomatic relations.
Bilateral relations were further emphasised at the Bandung Conference in 1955, where talks between the two heads of state played an important role in promoting understanding, and developing friendly relations and cooperation between the two countries.
In 1961, Pakistan furthered relations when it voted for a bill concerning the restoration of Chinas legitimate rights in the UN.
Deterioration in Sino-Indian relations, which culminated in the 1962 war, provided further opportunities for Sino-Pak cooperation and in 1963 both countries signed an agreement on border relations, and the construction of a road linking Chinas Xinjian-Uygur autonomous region with the northern areas of Pakistan.
They signed their first trade agreement in 1963 and, in the years that followed, diplomatic exchanges increased significantly.
Their strategic partnership was initially driven by the mutual need to counter the Soviet Union and India, and China supported Pakistan in its two wars against India, in 1965 and 1971, with both military and economic assistance.
The military alliance led further to the creation of a Joint Committee for Economy, Trade and Technology in 1982, and China soon began, in the late 1980s, discussing the possible sales of M-11 missiles and related technology to Pakistan.
In 2005, China and Pakistan signed a landmark Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation, whereby they committed that neither party will join any alliance or bloc which infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of either nation, while simultaneously agreeing that both parties would not conclude treaties of this nature with any 3rd party.
In short, during the post Cold War era, China emerged as Pakistans most important strategic guarantor vis-à-vis India.
China assisted Pakistan with the building of its nuclear technology complex.
China has been Pakistans most important source of modern conventional weaponry and a vital source of trade and investment.
Chinas close ties with Pakistan allowed the former a greater sphere of influence extending to South Asia, as well as a bridge between the Muslim world and Beijing.
The relationship is still of great strategic importance today where, for the few decades, the basis of Pakistans foreign policy has been its military relationship with China, and now that China is trying to build its global sphere of influence- for which it needs Pakistan- it doesnt mind if Pakistan becomes a regional power in the meantime.
Another important facet of Pak-China relation can be reflected in the following event:
In February 2006, four days after the killing of 3 Chinese engineers in Hub in Balochistan, and soon before the arrival of President George W. Bush in Islamabad, President Pervez Musharraf made a short visit to China from February 20 to February 25.
The timing of the visit suggested, perhaps, that Pakistan gives greater priority to its strategic partnership with China than it does to its Major Non Nuclear Ally (MNNA) status with the US.
During his visit, President Musharraf emphasised on the need to improve relations with China with regard to trade and investment, as well as nuclear energy co-operation and defence co-operation.
The Chinese government, in a highly symbolic act, released special postage stamps to commemorate President Musharrafs visit and 55 years of diplomatic relations.
This visit not only takes a special place in the history just because Bushs impending visit but also because of the encouraging remarks from both the side.
I have jotted down a few below:-
Chinese President Hu Jinato referred to President Musharraf as an old friend of the Chinese people and praised him for making an important contribution to the development of relations.
He also went on to hail the trip as another landmark in the glorious history of bilateral relations whereby, the friendship between the two countries has matured into a comprehensive strategic partnership for peace and development,
To which Musharraf replied that Our friendship is deeper than the ocean, and higher than the mountain.
Furthermore, in a message to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao said China-Pakistan relations have withstood the tests of internationally changing situations and have become a model of living in amity among countries.
An even stronger statement, however, came from the then Pakistans Information Minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, when he told a TV interviewer that Pakistan would stand behind China if the United States ever tried to besiege it, suggesting again a preference for China over the United States.
For China, such a statement was comforting on the eve of President Bushs visit to Islamabad while, for Washington, it served as a reminder.
Pakistan because of its strategically important location also provides China, especially its western part, with easy access to the Arabian sea and the vast oil and gas resources of the Middle East.
This Convergence of Strategic Interests, more than anything else, provides a sound basis for the further development of Pakistan-China relations.
Pakistan is Allowing China to Project its Might Across the Subcontinent
Why Balochistan is Burning?
Why China is bent upon Pakistan?
The answer to the above questions is responded below:-
China is projecting its might across the subcontinent through its strategic presence at the Gwadar Port project.
Construction of the port began in March 2002 after the Chinese agreed to provide $198 million of the $248 million required for Phase I of the project.
China has also invested in support infrastructure by financing a highway link from Gwadar to a central Balochistan town, connecting Karachi and Quetta.
It is pertinent to mention that China was initially reluctant to help with the construction of the port, though finally agreed to fund it provided that it had sovereign guarantees to the port facilities. Pakistan agreed to this condition, resulting in a disgruntled United States.
Just 250 miles from the straits of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 per cent of the worlds oil supplies flow, the port is strategically located to serve as a key shipping point in the region. It is of great strategic value as it augments Pakistans importance in the region, while allowing China to diversify and secure its crude oil import routes and simultaneously gain access to the Persian Gulf.
Under a MOU signed between China and Pakistan, China is also to build a 90 km highway link connecting the Chinese side of the Karakoram highway to the Russian built highway network that already connects all the five Central Asian Republics.
This regional highway network will directly link Gwadar to Xinjiang and the landlocked Central Asian Republics.
The Karakoram highway and the coastal highway will both serve as vital trade routes and, considering that the existing Karakoram highway already connects Western China to Pakistan, any further expansion of the line along with prospective linkages to Gwadar via the planned Ratodero-Khuzdar road would make it the shortest and most viable route connecting Gwadar to Western China.
This manifests Chinas attempt to exert its influence far beyond its borders in order to sustain its security interests, as well as consolidate its friendship with Pakistan through large scale collaborative projects.
Through the construction of the Gwadar port, Beijing also will gain considerable influence in the region, giving it a strategic entrance to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, while allowing it to closely monitor US naval activity and US- Indian maritime cooperation.
This doubtlessly is a cause for alarm and unease to both India and the US as the port will enable China to monitor its energy shipments from the Persian Gulf, while simultaneously offering it the option of a safer alternative passage for energy imports from Central Asia in the event of a hostile situation.
American suspicion of Chinese intentions at Gwadar is corroborated by an internal report prepared for the Pentagon entitled Energy Futures in Asia which states that Beijing has already has set up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar which monitor ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea.
In addition, the port and the other supporting infrastructure will help integrate Pakistan into the Chinese economy by out sourcing low tech, basic production and manufacturing jobs, making it into a giant factory floor for China.
Having invested $400 million in the project, the port will be accessible for Chinese imports and exports through overland links that stretch across the Karakoram Highway.
For Pakistan as well, the benefits are profound, where to quote President Musharraf, as and when needed the Chinese navy could be in Gwadar to give befitting replies to everyone. This statement was further reinforced by Pakistans recent designation of the port area as a sensitive defence area.
Gwadar would inhibit Indias ability to blockade Pakistan , and permit China to supply Pakistan by land and sea during wartime.
Essentially, Pakistan is interested in the project to gain strategic leverage so that it is less vulnerable to the dominant Indian navy.
The construction of the port and the highway, by making Pakistan a regional trade-hub for commercial traffic, will also boost domestic economic development, and influence the geo-strategic environment of the region.
The port will enable the transfer of Central Asias vast energy resources to world markets, earning Pakistan significant profits in transit fees, as well as attract considerable investment into Balochistan.
In addition, discussions are already underway to designate the Gwadar port as a free trade zone, while some members of the Pakistani business community advocate the eventual designation of the Gwadar port as an export processing zone with special incentives extended to Chinese companies.
Moreover, the opening of international trade through Gwadar can create new stakeholders in Afghanistan who will become beneficiaries of the transit trade to Central Asia. This in turn can be expected to act as an incentive for normalising the situation in the wartorn country, and also remove the existing misgivings between Kabul and Islamabad.
Gwadar thus presents a good opportunity for fostering good neighbourly relations between Pakistan and the region to its immediate northwest.
I dont think so that this all will make the US (the West) and india happy and comfortable, so the reasons are obvious.
US Reponse/Reasons Behind US involvement in Afghanistan and surroundings and the Covert Ops
In order to curtail the possibility of such an eventuality the US is trying to create problems for Pakistan, so that in the longer the it can control Pakistan and contain Chinese influence over the Caspian energy resources. Moreover, the eyes and ear that Gwadar port will provide to China are in no way digestible to the US and india.
In addition Iran is also one of the stake holders in this context, as after Gwadar port starts functioning, its Bandar-e Abbās and Chahbahar ports would face a serious setback, as currently 40% of worlds oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
The success of Gwadar port rests on the following pillars in my personal opinion:-
1. Continued flawless relationship between Pakistan and China.
2. Stability and strong governess inside Pakistan.
3. Support of the entire nation.
4. Support of all the factions in the society to include the:
a. The minorities
b. Our Pukhtoon brothers
c. Our Baloch brothers
d. Some factions inside Sindh
5. Peace and stability in NWFP and Baluchistan so that investors can be attracted.
6. Assurance of adequate share and employment to the Balochs.
7. Removing all sort of sections that support independence and separatism inside Baluchistan and NWFP.
8. Complete unity among all the sub-nations.
9. Complete trust on the Army by the people in every Province.
10. Complete hold of Government and Law Enforcement Agencies (LAEs) inside the troubled region, thus necessitating construction of Military Cantonments, Police Station and Para-Military setups.
11. Complete ban on smuggling, illegal weapons and free exchange of visitors between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
12. Complete trust of Chinese and other employers as regards to their security and welfare.
13. Complete harmony between the political parties.
14. Complete harmony among all the factions of the Country (Sindhi, Balochi, Pathan, Punjabi, Sunni, Shia, Chritians, Hindus and other minorities)
15. Cut down on corruption.
16. Construction of Mega Projects for Power Generation (now you know why Dams were not being built or I must say were not allowed to built)
(These are just the points which came to me at random, additions, deletions and modifications are welcomed)
Now if any sane person would keep the above mentioned points and the Countrys law and order situation after 9/11 in view, he or she would easily come to know about who all and which all hands can be involved behind the Balochistans, NWFPs, Swats and the general security situation in the country!
Now you can very easily point figures.
You dont need to be a think-tank to conclude these deductions.
But still let me make it easy for you:
Fueling the insurgency in Balochistan and keeping it boiling, benefits:-
1. The US (the West in general), because:
a. It opposes Chinese dominance of the Arabian Sea
b. Curtail Pakistan from reaping the fruits of Gwadar
c. Gives it a chance to continue its influence over and around the countries in the vicinity of Gwadar
2. India, because:
a. It pleases india as Pakistan bleeds
b. Reciprocate what Pakistani moral support to Kashmiri freedom-fighters has been enacting to the Indian army
c. Would stop Pakistan from having guud relations with Afghanistan-thus enabling india to open two-frontal war with Pakistan.
3. Iran, due to:
a. The fact that it would allow Iran to control the flow of oil in the Hormuz
b. Would leave its shops open to the world market
c. Would allow it to re-route the energy-supply corridors directly from the CARs through Afghanistan, thus by passing Gawadar (Pakistan) altogether.
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