Why going ' MAD ' won't work for India ?

[Secur]

Didn't you read the link I posted ?It answers many of your questions.We have operational Thermonuclear Warheads,as proved by that interview & development of lighter RVs.We have enough high performance computing capabilities to validate them too.
And official confirmation is far more credible than 'speculations'.
Wasn't Chagai II ,a FBF one?
By the way,who claimed 200MT? its 200kT.Same yield as our older FBF warheads but lighter-MIRV,perhaps.

Yes I did , all that it mentioned was the possibility of creating warheads upto 200 kT whilst maintaining the current yield at 45 kT . I knew well before that both countries have tested thermonuclear weapons in their respective tests , I just know that this <50 isn't effective TN warheads yield . If you doubt me , you are always free to check the respective yields of other country's nukes . The same possibility lies with Pakistan too with its Plutonium enrichment facility at Khushab , the only reason I didn't mention the sub kiloton " TN's " was the very fact that their existence is not confirmed and yield is just too low for an actual effective thermonuclear weapon . You claimed 200MT in the post I quoted .

Karan Thapar: So you are saying to me that we have thermonuclear bombs--in the plural?
Anil Kakodkar: Yes.
Karan Thapar: With a yield of at least 45 kilotonnes each.
Anil Kakodkar: Much more than that.
Karan Thapar: Much more than that?
Anil Kakodkar: Yes. I told you we have the possibility of a deterrence of low kilotonne to 200 kilotonnes.

 

[ares]

estimate

The equation was never that simple and I never said that the aftereffects will be applicable to only a single side . Extrapolate the same data which you mentioned , what does it result when both countries use their complete arsenal theoretically . I still am unable to see the survival of India as a country as you claim . The problem arises that the damages aren't limited to people killed/injured and the infrastructure destroyed . Think of the environmental changes , contaminated water resources and infertile lands , the economy done-with , the chaos and mayhem and an absent Govt and system . Atmospheric winds carrying the fallout to distant lands , far from the ground zero . The question of survival with a massive arsenal like Pakistan doesn't arise . Of course , people will survive in large numbers , though without the semblance of a state as I made clear in my first post here .

Shaheen IA marked the beginning of testing countermeasures though thewasn't much data available from official sources , a common problem with Pakistani defense information .

Any country can but deploy only a small percentage of their entire arsenal in times war, especially if they are fighting another nuclear armed country, Coz the other side is shooting too!!

Isn't that why USA and Soviet union maintained huge arsenals that could destroy the entire world many times over. It is called redundancy, as they knew majority of their arsenal would be wiped out/disabled in the enemy strikes and what ever is left should be able to completely destroy the enemy.

Your problems are further compounded by the fact that your entire arsenal is land bound for foreseeable future and has a very limited land area to disperse(in terms of vulnerability in a nuclear conflict).

Available information on Shaheen 1A suggest it has higher range, higher speed than its predecessor and post separation altitude correction system .nothing ground breaking in my opinion.. All most all anti- missile system are developed to deal with such minor modifications.
No MIRV or MARV, or decoys, or radar or infrared evading systems.

 

[Indo-guy]

Yes I did , all that it mentioned was the possibility of creating warheads upto 200 kT whilst maintaining the current yield at 45 kT . I knew well before that both countries have tested thermonuclear weapons in their respective tests , I just know that this <50 isn't effective TN warheads yield . If you doubt me , you are always free to check the respective yields of other country's nukes . The same possibility lies with Pakistan too with its Plutonium enrichment facility at Khushab , the only reason I didn't mention the sub kiloton " TN's " was the very fact that their existence is not confirmed and yield is just too low for an actual effective thermonuclear weapon . You claimed 200MT in the post I quoted .

He never claimed 200 MT .

He said 200 Kt . Please go back and his post # 85 .

 

[dray]

last thing we want is Pakistan to get away with nuclear assault on India ....

That's very important, tactical nuke or whatever, Pakistan (or any country) must not get away with nuclear assault on India, for that if we need to make a nuclear counter attack mandatory in our doctrine, we should do it.

 

[Indo-guy]

That's very important, tactical nuke or whatever, Pakistan (or any country) must not get away with nuclear assault on India, for that if we need to make a nuclear counter attack mandatory in our doctrine, we should do it.

Yes , exactly .

last time Pakistan got away with 26/11 attacks despite obvious incriminating proof.

Pakistan authorities were totally scared ...they had under pressure agreed to send ISI director to India .

But they made volte face immediately and held on to their nerves.

If we have stupid , pacifist government at center ...we might as well let Pakistan walk away with nuclear assault on India with their usual 'non state actor' alibi .

so the nuke threat from terrorist is areal problem and India should make it amply clear ...no matter who is responsible for Nuclear assault Pakistan will have to bear brunt of it ...

 

[ares]

In 2012, officially it was mentioned about the commencement of nuke sub and time frame was given 5-7 years

5-7 year to design, build and deploy a nuclear sub..with very little conventional submarine building experience and no operating experience whatsoever!!??
Sounds very much like the many unsubstantiated rumors found abundantly in Pakistani defense industry.

 

[Bratva]

5-7 year to design, build and deploy a nuclear sub..with very little conventional submarine building experience and no operating experience whatsoever!!??
Sounds very much like the many unsubstantiated rumors found abundantly in Pakistani defense industry.

Do you know Pakistan is trying to build Nuclear reactor for subs and related design parameters since 2006?

If it was an unsubstantiated rumour, I wouldn't have put "OFFICIALLY" specifically

link please.

A Light On Pakistan's Nuclear Submarine Project | ASIAN DEFENCE NEWS

Pakistan Navy’s ‘Nuclear’ Aspirations | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Pakistan to build a Nuclear submarine | Page 28


Read links in order.

 

[ares]

Do you know Pakistan is trying to build Nuclear reactor since 2006?

If it was an unsubstantiated rumour, I wouldn't have put "OFFICIALLY" specefically

I hope you mean is trying to a miniaturize a nuclear reactor..

Here in India..based on our experience in operating Russian nuclear sub, we started our efforts to miniaturize a nuclear reactor early 90s, built a prototype by 2003 and will be finally commissioning our first boomer in 2014. More power to you if you can complete the whole process in a just over a decade.

I though you would put some 'official' links to prove your point..these are but internet rumours..similar to those
Pakistan is bying U-214 from Germany or Qing class submarines from China..etc

A simple fact of the matter is acquiring even a single SSBN costs upwards of $2.5 Billion ..your Navy simply does not have that kind of funding/ given that kind of importance.

 

[Khan_patriot]

The biggest wildcard in the equation. The terrorists (unless stopped by there ISI minders) are not likely to even respond to MAD. They would actually want to provoke a massive Indian attack - this gets them to their martyrdom faster and gets a bunch of innocent Pakistanis & Indians killed to boot. Also, the terrorists are also likely to use dirty bombs when they can't get their hands on a nuclear device. There is not much we can do to here (except for catching them before the attack), but the graded Counter Force response is a workable option - the Pakistani army is incentivized to control the crazies (for whatever that's worth).

We have seen a bit to much Hoollywood movies, have we???
Go easy on the action flicks man....

 

[xyxmt]

@xyxmt added 90 nukes from his own account ...besides couple of nuke subs

Now India is really scared ...we better move out to pacific ocean ...or else Pakistan will wipe out with couple of nuke subs that even don't exist .....

what count do you have, what count US has and what count does EU has about Pakistani nukes, CIA had a zero count when Pakistan did the explosion they were saying we are at least 8 years away from it...
Let me tell you a secret, Pakistan never had anything until the day it needs to show it and you'd be surprised yet again.

I hope you mean is trying to a miniaturize a nuclear reactor..

Here in India..based on our experience in operating Russian nuclear sub, we started our efforts to miniaturize a nuclear reactor early 90s, built a prototype by 2003 and will be finally commissioning our first boomer in 2014. More power to you if you can complete the whole process in a just over a decade.

I though you would put some 'official' links to prove your point..these are but internet rumours..similar to those
Pakistan is bying U-214 from Germany or Qing class submarines from China..etc

A simple fact of the matter is acquiring even a single SSBN costs upwards of $2.5 Billion ..your Navy simply does not have that kind of funding/ given that kind of importance.

This is all based on the assumption that Pakistan was waiting for your go ahead to start the process

You over assessed the power capibility of pakistan and when did pakistan had 200 nukes prove your Claims or shut up

how many do you think Pakistan has, prove it and i will shutup

 

[ares]

This is all based on the assumption that Pakistan was waiting for your go ahead to start the process

No, it is based on an assumption, that you internet warrior can your back your claims with some substantial evidence!!

 

[Muradk]

MAD won't help you against terrorists.....specifically not the kind that is willing to die....and Pakistani nukes falling in the hands of terrorists is unlikely....they are not that dumb!

Most people still think that nukes are one assembly, No its not. Probably 30 parts come to make one

My statements may have hurt your feelings . My intention is to state likely possibility that only thing that can dissuade Pakistani leadership from taking drastic step of launching nuclear attack will be assured destruction of Pakistan due to massive retaliation from India .

I am no way suggesting that this should happen .

Nuclear weapons for the last 6 decades remained weapons of peace ....due to MAD doctrine

I hope that this will remain so in case of India- Pakistan too .

I have already stated why I feel that India will likely survive Nuclear exchange but Pakistan won't .

Sheer size of country and population, economy , over seas population favors India . This is a cold fact in my opinion .

HAHAHAH at this age if it hurts cant tell because everything hurts.

My statements may have hurt your feelings . My intention is to state likely possibility that only thing that can dissuade Pakistani leadership from taking drastic step of launching nuclear attack will be assured destruction of Pakistan due to massive retaliation from India .

I am no way suggesting that this should happen .

Nuclear weapons for the last 6 decades remained weapons of peace ....due to MAD doctrine

I hope that this will remain so in case of India- Pakistan too .

I have already stated why I feel that India will likely survive Nuclear exchange but Pakistan won't .

Sheer size of country and population, economy , over seas population favors India . This is a cold fact in my opinion .

HAHAHAH at this age if it hurts cant tell because everything hurts.

 

[Secur]

Don't know from where you got this map ?

The linear distance between Karachi and Kolkata itself is 2181 km ....

the distance between Karachi to Dispur is 2,500 km ....and there are many north eastern states which extend beyond that ...

and as you agreed India's command center in Andaman is totally out of Pakistani range .


and your map is including whole of North east which is much further ?

You must be thinking 10 years ahead ?

Unless China lends you new missiles ( which it won't because it will be violating MTCR ) ...it will take years for you guys to have capability to envelope whole of India ...

Even then you don't have enough missiles to destroy India fully .

There are > 30,000 mid sized cities .
Most megacities are under Pakistani cover. But remember we do have ABM in place .

and as Pakistan attacks India...India is not going to keep quite .

Even if Pakistan launches 50 nuclear tipped missiles within first few hours of conflict ....Indian response will be massive enough that Pakistan will not be able use its remaining 50 nukes ...

with just 100 or even 200 nukes Pakistan can't win nuclear war with India .

This is the fact ...

All I am getting lately from you are fan-boy responses and naive queries , not to mention all things off topic dragged in , something based on the " Elephant's invincibility " . There's no point talking if you cant even understand a simple radius taken equal to missile's range plotted on a map and cant take factual information . Why exactly must the missile be launched from Karachi ? Though even from it , the southern and north eastern India are covered , something you claimed to be untrue earlier . Why the absolute focus on Shaheen-2 even ? Pakistan Army has other missiles with a ranges > 1000 KM , Ghauri series with 1200KM and 1800 KM ranges for first and second version , enough to take the distant and far flung areas out . Where you get your information from is beyond me seriously . I do not know what you people are led to believe about Pakistan's missile technology but it isn't based on facts but rather rumors and conspiracy theories based on the same ignorant idea that " Islamabad cant develop anything by itself and has to import everything from outside or reverse engineer components " , unfortunately for you this country has come a long way from the glorified M11's but obviously it doesn't make sense to you , since well you are always looking for North Korean , Chinese and American hand to justify and rationalize the facts , which you aren't able to digest and hence have to look for " psychological defense mechanisms " for help . Starting from importing entire missiles and reverse engineering , this country has reached the level where it can produce the missiles indigenously having the experience of more than two decades in this field and a significant base . Sticking your head in the sand , that is what denying it is . This isn't the 90's anymore and the world isn't much a free place to import critical techs without the Uncle Sam poking his nose in and threatening sanctions of sorts .

Like I said , India is well covered ( except for tiny islands insignificant to us from a military POV anyways ) with a vast inventory and diverse range of missiles ranging from Battlefield range , Short range , Medium Range to Land and Air based Cruise missiles , more than capable of delivering the ever expanding arsenal of 120 warheads , the idea is not to completely destroy and annihilate the adversary for it is not possible even in the Russia and U.S case , but to cause " unacceptable damage " to ensure that the adversary ceases to function as a state , something which is more than possible and deterred New Delhi from crossing the border during Op.Brasstacks , Op.Parakram , Kargil and Post-Mumbai and continues to deter India from trying out misadventures . Why do you think caused the development of Cold start doctrine ? The fact that an all-out war is likely to result in MAD , the stakes are just too high and Indian leadership seems to understand what Indian members here for some reason do not , the simple thing that survival of the state isn't possible with a nuclear exchange .

I really think that knowing something a bit more about this country's nuclear and missile program will help and remove the need for childish queries of " if its in the future " or " Will it be provided by Beijing ? " . Think of it , your country has never been able to factor in the " nuclear " option and despite wanting to , cant teach Pakistan a lesson , we have seen the bravado on the ground and the boasting of " Pakistan cant destroy India " shatter like glass when Indian soldiers were asked to standstill and return to base in " 87 and "02 respectively because of the non conventional threat . I think its time to look beyond the incompetent and ball-less civilian leadership , because the reasons for the restraint and inability to teach Islamabad a lesson are more complex than what you think and have developed an idea of , the IA has sufficient understanding of this country's nuclear firepower and capability and know better than you do about the Mutually Assured Destruction , this is the actual reason for not crossing the border . Nothing whatsoever has changed in that regard . You do not have the ABM's in place yet and by the time they come online - become operational and have sufficient coverage , countermeasures will be deployed and the numbers of missiles and warheads increased to tackle the new challenges , the military isn't exactly sitting idle here . Here's the map drawn for a Shaheen-2 range when launched from three different places in this country , see if you can understand how India is effectively covered and how it all works .

 

[Secur]

Any country can but deploy only a small percentage of their entire arsenal in times war, especially if they are fighting another nuclear armed country, Coz the other side is shooting too!!

Isn't that why USA and Soviet union maintained huge arsenals that could destroy the entire world many times over. It is called redundancy, as they knew majority of their arsenal would be wiped out/disabled in the enemy strikes and what ever is left should be able to completely destroy the enemy.

Your problems are further compounded by the fact that your entire arsenal is land bound for foreseeable future and has a very limited land area to disperse(in terms of vulnerability in a nuclear conflict).

Available information on Shaheen 1A suggest it has higher range, higher speed than its predecessor and post separation altitude correction system .nothing ground breaking in my opinion.. All most all anti- missile system are developed to deal with such minor modifications.
No MIRV or MARV, or decoys, or radar or infrared evading systems.

Nothing to disagree with . It just happens that Islamabad is likely to try a launch-all-at-once ( meaning whatever is available at that time ) to cause unacceptable damage and see if the adversary can be rendered incapable of launching nukes . The targets are most likely to be major cities , industrial hubs , militarily significant areas and resources . Even if the rivers are contaminated , the whole of our populations and economy is done-with . I do not really see the survival and continued existence after a exchange , it wasn't present with the math you did here even , if the data is extrapolated even to 50% of both country's arsenal . If Pakistan is at a disadvantage because of inability to deploy the whole arsenal in emergency so is India . I agree with the limited land mass theory and the problems it presents , though the world's 36'th largest country still has enough areas to disperse and look for second strike when the opportunity presents itself . Of course this is all hypothetical .

Both our countries have primitive nuclear weapons with sub-kiloton yields - these aren't effective TN warheads yield <50 kT , what other nuclear powers except North Korea have their biggest yields in kT even ? This is what the others have achieved with fission only warheads . Pakistan claims a yield of 18kT with its thermonuclear test , India does 45kT - both the claims are disputed by the independent sources and believed to be much less than claimed . It is highly unlikely that either of the side can perform an effective decapitation strike and prevent the adversary to launch nuclear weapons . There's a reason why I said that both countries are almost matched non conventionally . There's a reason why this article calls MAD as not an option for India .

The Shaheen IA is widely believed to be testbed for upcoming technologies , the increased ranges and speed weren't of much importance , as was the Post Separation Altitude system - automated refueling and limited stealth features . Maybe , not ground breaking but still the first step in developing and testing counter-measures . Almost all antimissile system - even those deployed by the U.S aren't believed to intercept more than 50% of incoming hostiles .

 

[Secur]

WASHINGTON: Pakistan has addressed issues of survivability in a possible nuclear conflict through second strike capability, says a US congressional report . The first part of the report, published on Friday, deals with Islamabad’s efforts to develop new weapons, while the second part studies its strategy for surviving a nuclear war.

According to the report, Pakistan has built hard and deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second strike capability in a nuclear war . It also has built road-mobile missiles, air defences around strategic sites, and concealment measures . The report prepared by the Congressional Research Service recalls that as the United States prepared to launch an attack on the Afghan Taliban after September 11, 2001, former military dictator Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf ordered that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal be redeployed to ‘at least six secret new locations .’ This action came at a time of uncertainly about the future of the region, including the direction of US-Pakistan relations . Indeed, Musharraf cited protection of Pakistan’s nuclear and missile assets as one of the reasons for Islamabad’s dramatic policy shift. But it now appears that it stemmed from new-found confidence that Pakistan has developed a second-strike capability .

Pak develops second-strike N-capability - The Times of India

The Khushab Complex is the main source of Pakistan's weapons-grade plutonium for its nuclear weapons program. Because Pakistan is an NPT-outlier, the complex is not under IAEA Safeguards. Khushab-1 is a 40-50MW plutonium production reactor, moderated by heavy water and utilizing natural uranium fuel. [1] Construction of Khushab-1—reportedly with Chinese assistance—began in 1987, and the reactor commenced operations in 1998. [2] Pakistan officially announced operations at Khushab-1 prior to its nuclear weapons tests. [3] Khushab-2 and -3 are estimated to be 50MW plutonium production reactors also moderated by heavy water. Construction on Khushab-4 is currently ongoing. It appears to be modeled after the Khushab-2 and -3 design, although the layout is somewhat modified. [4]

Once all four reactors are online, Pakistan can produce approximately 24-48 kg of weapons-grade plutonium a year. [5]

Pakistan is working to ramp up production at the complex so that it can build more miniaturised plutonium-based nuclear weapons, ISIS said.

Khushab Complex | Facilities | NTI
Pakistan closer to completing fourth nuclear reactor at Khushab | NDTV.com

In late 2006, the Institute for Science and International Security released intelligence reports and imagery showing the construction of a new plutonium reactor at the Khushab nuclear site. The reactor is deemed to be large enough to produce enough plutonium to facilitate the creation of as many as "40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year."[75][76][77] The New York Times carried the story with the insight that this would be Pakistan's third plutonium reactor,[78] signalling a shift to dual-stream development, with Plutonium-based devices supplementing the nation's existing HEU stream to atomic warheads. On 30 May 1998, Pakistan proved its plutonium capability in a scientific experiment and sixth nuclear test: codename Chagai-II.[72]

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan 'building new reactor'

Pakistan's first nuclear tests were made in May 1998, when six warheads were tested under codename Chagai-I and Chagai-II. It is reported that the yields from these tests were 12 kt, 30 to 36 kt and four low-yield (below 1 kt) tests. From these tests Pakistan can be estimated to have developed operational warheads of 20 to 25 kt and 150 kt in the shape of low weight compact designs and may have 300–500 kt[86] large-size warheads. - Wiki

Pakistan Nuclear History & Present – Project 706 | Rafaqat

The claims of 200kT for the Indian thermonuclear weapons are of the same origin just listed officially , its the capability of the warhead's design rather than what is available and operational at the moment . The real yields remain much lower in sub-kiloton region for both countries from the available data in the public domain for now . Pakistan doesn't appear to be lagging behind in the thermonuclear race as many seem to think here , the capability to produce TN warheads and increase the yield of the previous ones is present with the country . The fan-boys need to think and think again .