forcetrip
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
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Point well appreciated. I can say nothing further than if India is involved even in-directly then my head hangs in shame, rest is all conjectures and speculations. However there are certain trends and patterns which can be analysed via publically available documents and reports which would point out that India is not involved with TTP.
1. India's deep freeze in ties with Afganishtan and it's rebuffing of any attempts of rapprochement by certain section of Afghan Establishment which were patronized by India due to their Anti-Pakistan Posture. These are the elements which were suspected of having links with the aforementioned organizations. If India wanted to go that route it could have easily rolled out the red carpet instead of sending Karzai and company back home empty handed. (Publically available)
2. India is dis-engaging from Afganishtan - no weapons, training and supplies to ANA and their intelligence agencies. We played that game and we saw what came out of it and it wasn't pretty. For now you can rest assured that except civilian contract works there are no on-going strategic/intelligence projects in Afganishtan. If you look closely at appointments and transfers within India's intelligence/bureaucratic circles - Afghan hands have been re-allocated elsewhere in India. (Publically available).
3. RAW is in process of being re-structured and it's wings have been literally cut - (Publically Available)
4. Focus has shifted to IM and other home-grown terror groups. All external and Internal resources are encouraged to limit the space available to them financially and politically to operate within India specifically in areas of W. Bengal, Bihar, and AP
Hearsay/Lutyen's Gossip = Post UFA Meet
1. Ajit Doval and Manohar Pariker have been re-primanded by PM and their briefs re-defined. Gag order is in place by PMO where only authorized MEA and MHA spokesmen would interact with media.
2. All Pakistan related matters are being personally supervised by PM with inputs from MEA and NSA. NSA has no autonomy and all operations require a green-light from PM.
3. Focus is on normalization of ties with Pakistan, NSA Meeting fiasco was an embarrassment for Modi for which he lost a lot of political capital. For now back-channel talks at under-secretary/diplomatic level will happen with no ministerial involvement as it is political cyanide right now to engage with Pakistan openly.
1) If Karzai went back without gaining anything do you believe his love for India is genuinely being aroused after being given nothing when he went to beg india to take a more open stance? He after leaving his post has been advocating India's presence in any peace talks that should take place. Would you say that is because he is feels that India would solve this mess from his heart even after being given nothing in return? I hope you realize how he and his family have systematically spread their tentacles to rise up as one of the most corrupt leaders Afghanistan has seen. (Publicly Available). I also want to explain to you that he backing someone this incessantly while all his allies or supposed allies are pushing him towards another direction is not going to be cheap. Specially when one of those allies has over 2 million of his refugees and the other is single handedly bankrolling his country.
2) Whats been done publicly is not how intelligence agencies work. There is no paper trail with money. Its not bank transactions that will magically implicate India. But unofficially there is a pattern which is seen with funding of proxy wars. Some do it openly like turkey and Saudi Arabia making up reasons. Some do it covertly but lack sophistication and some do it on the backs of their giant spread out infrastructure that comes with having a lot of money. Guns dont run wars anymore. Money does. Running four consulates for 200,000 visas a year? Compared to having 6 consulates in a country the size and money of the US which caters to over a 1000000 visas just to Indians alone. I know these are not proofs that will be accepted by who its brought to. I am not here to convince you about believing that numbers matter. In the end we are already discussing something that has no logical conclusion as we are trying to talk about covert intelligence operations being civilians. But you dismissed that anything could be going on by Indian Intel agencies in that regard because the public knowledge says otherwise.