What will happen to Pakistan as a fallout of unstable Afghanistan

[shuntmaster]

Ahmad Shah Massoud , the former Mujahideen commander was always receiving active help from the Indians , being a dominant and influencing personality in the aftermath of the Peshawar accords and the ensuring civil war after an uneasy peace and specially being Tajik and hence more useful and reliable than the others .The Taliban rose to power in 1996 and so came into picture the Northern alliance . Every country was trying to gain leverage and Pakistan was no exception . So next time before asking us and trying to put all blame on Pakistan , learn to read the history in perspective . After all , we didn't have a dream and decided to support Taliban one day .

Do you have any proof of Indian support to Masood and Northern Alliance before 1996?
Pakistan formulated the doctrine of strategic depth right after 1971 war defeat..

 

[illusion8]

Do you even read your own stuff before posting.

you make mockery of your own intellect and thus strengthening the Talibarbairan supporters all thanks to Indian style prejudiced and narrow mind. you can do better, A lot better


peace to you

Did you even read your own thread title and my reply to it (I wasted a few minutes there)? instead of a reply you came up with off topic trolling and pathetic jokes like..

strengthening the Talibarbairan supporters all thanks to Indian style prejudiced and narrow mind.

Don't compare ANA with Taliban, one is made up by Pashtuns and other are drug addicts Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras etc.

Are you saying the pushtuns aren't drug addicts..

besides, faujhistorian took me off topic there.

 

[OrionHunter]

hahahah
you think ANA will be more successful against Talibarbarians than Pak army.
This shows an Indian's prejudice against Pakistan and mental slavery for Northern Alliance war lords

Gimme a break!! The Pak Army/ISI ain't fighting the Afghan Taliban. They are supporting them - from affording them sanctuaries, to logistics, training and providing them arms/ammo financed mostly from the coalition support funds (for which you guys have pissed off the Americans and the ANA too!)

What the Pak Army is fighting against is the TTP or Pakistani Taliban and NOT the Afghan Taliban.

Please get your facts straight especially since you call yourself a 'historian'!! You guys always seem to mix up the two.

 

[Secur]

Do you have any proof of Indian support to Masood and Northern Alliance before 1996?
Pakistan formulated the doctrine of strategic depth right after 1971 war defeat..

What proof have you provided for Pakistan's support for Taliban before their rise in Afghanistan ? Hekmatyar faction was the one supported by Islamabad in that era , not the newly risen group of student in Kandahar .

 

[shuntmaster]

What proof have you provided for Pakistan's support for Taliban before their rise in Afghanistan ? Hekmatyar faction was the one supported by Islamabad in that era , not the newly risen group of student in Kandahar .

Are you denying that Pakistan had any hand in formation of taliban?

 

[waz]

Afghanistan has been unstable for the last 30 years and Pakistan, up until recently has done fine.

 

[Secur]

Regardless of what many Pakistanis seem to believe , the situation isn't going to magically improve here somehow when the coalition departs . The Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani counterparts will join hand once there is relatively low resistance in Afghanistan and they can divert resources and man power easily to other side , they are more or less one and same , the ideology , mindset , practices and thought patterns all match , the condemnation statement from Afghan Taliban after Mehsud's death and constant help from other side of the Khyber Pass is a testimony of that . Now imagine what happens after 2014 , the West will lose all interest in this region just like what happened after the Soviet withdrawal , which means there would be little interest and by extension little help to the state of Pakistan . The law and order situation will further deteriorate if its not worse already , the crippled economy isn't going to have the O2 of peace anytime soon . Already , the state is all ready to surrender to the terrorist by the look of it - the talks at any and all costs . This is going to get very tough for our country here , the Muslim brotherhood will not help Islamabad , you have to fight this new war alone . The radicalized population will also not help , the monsters we created during the so called Jihad in Afghanistan are coming back to haunt us again . I see little hope with such weak military and political leadership . It even might get too late if the same indecisiveness continues , now this is scary , but this is the reality on ground . Act against them now or lament it forever , we cant find a common ground with terrorists , it amounts to giving up the freedom , writ of the state and sovereignty and all that we stand for . Only through understanding can there be recovery .

 

[PakEye]

It will not be a First Afghan Fall out recall your memory after 80's USSR withdraw from Afghanistan and USA and Westran Countires Sepration from Afghan war fallout, then Pakistan was single country to face Afghan war fallout, Landlocked Afghanistan and Pakistan are tow countaries but major things are same as Religon, Pushto Language, culture, major part of Trade through Pakistan and many more countles affairs , Pakistan has world Largest Refugess population from Afghanistan, after all Afghan Fallout is a running business for Pakistan.

 

[Icarus]

@Icarus - So what you're essentially trying to say is that either way we're foOked !

Because if the present Afghan Government doesn't fall they'd most certainly reignite their Loy Afghanistan BS of ages past or they'd harbor & support one or the other Anti-Pakistan Elements like they'd been up to since '48 (Every Separatist Insurgency in Baluchistan) that prompted the Bhutto-Naseerullah Babur duo to start interfering in Afghanistan to begin with but on the other hand if they - the Afghan Government - does fall then the Taliban are most likely going to come to power & say 'Hey weren't these basterds who ratted us out to the Yanks' - Its time for payback !

What confuses me here, however, is that if they - the Afghan Taliban - don't have the tacit support of the Pakistani Establishment in some way then why the heck are the Americans & the Afghans b*tching about it since ever ?

And if we do tacitly support them, read - veritable arm of the ISI, then that would imply that the Afghan Taliban aren't providing sanctuaries to the TTP or supporting them & cometh 2014 & their return they'd help us in sorting this out - Otherwise even as daft as we are....we're not that suicidal to support the Afghan Taliban (assuming that we do) despite knowing full well that they're just bidding their time & wouldn't miss a heart-beat to drive a blade in our backs ?

Ya Elahi Ye Majraa Kiyaa Haiii ?

It depends on how we play on the situation, Afghanistan will be dependent on Pakistan because no matter how close they manage to get with India, guess who's ports they need to use for their inputs (significant volume of imports) and then there's the matter about Pakistan conveniently falling between India and Pakistan whether you go by road, rail or air.
Afghan has significant mineral deposits but lacks the know how to exploit them, if recent trends in North and Africa are any indicators, the Chinese will be pushing hard to secure the Afghan mineral sources. If they succeed, it will push us into a closer relationship with Afghanistan or not.
So how this situation evolves bases solely on how we handle it.

 

[Armstrong]

It depends on how we play on the situation, Afghanistan will be dependent on Pakistan because no matter how close they manage to get with India, guess who's ports they need to use for their inputs (significant volume of imports) and then there's the matter about Pakistan conveniently falling between India and Pakistan whether you go by road, rail or air.
Afghan has significant mineral deposits but lacks the know how to exploit them, if recent trends in North and Africa are any indicators, the Chinese will be pushing hard to secure the Afghan mineral sources. If they succeed, it will push us into a closer relationship with Afghanistan or not.
So how this situation evolves bases solely on how we handle it.

Bhai marvaa na deinaa like the last few times; our attempts at containing Afghanistan's BS created a quagmire that is threatening to suck Pakistan in now !

 

[karan.1970]

It depends on how we play on the situation, Afghanistan will be dependent on Pakistan because no matter how close they manage to get with India, guess who's ports they need to use for their inputs (significant volume of imports) and then there's the matter about Pakistan conveniently falling between India and Pakistan whether you go by road, rail or air.
Afghan has significant mineral deposits but lacks the know how to exploit them, if recent trends in North and Africa are any indicators, the Chinese will be pushing hard to secure the Afghan mineral sources. If they succeed, it will push us into a closer relationship with Afghanistan or not.
So how this situation evolves bases solely on how we handle it.

You shouldn't forget the Iran angle though..

 

[Icarus]

Bhai marvaa na deinaa like the last few times; our attempts at containing Afghanistan's BS created a quagmire that is threatening to suck Pakistan in now !

Our pitfall in the 90s were the following:

1) Attempting to let Afghanistan take its own course by not intervening in the civil war.
2) The neglect of the greater global community when Afghanistan had become a smoking cauldron of mass murder.
3) Attempting then to build a rapport with the Taliban.
4) Allowing the Taliban a political piggy back, which bought us our "Terrorist Facilitator" image.
5) Allowing everyone and their granny to cross over into Pakistan.
6) Assuming that the Taliban will be able to mould public opinion in our favour.


We're hoping we wont make the same mistakes again. There are always new experiments to be made
The last part was a joke made in good will and should be taken as such.

 

[rockstar08]

Regardless of what many Pakistanis seem to believe , the situation isn't going to magically improve here somehow when the coalition departs . The Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani counterparts will join hand once there is relatively low resistance in Afghanistan and they can divert resources and man power easily to other side , they are more or less one and same , the ideology , mindset , practices and thought patterns all match , the condemnation statement from Afghan Taliban after Mehsud's death and constant help from other side of the Khyber Pass is a testimony of that . Now imagine what happens after 2014 , the West will lose all interest in this region just like what happened after the Soviet withdrawal , which means there would be little interest and by extension little help to the state of Pakistan . The law and order situation will further deteriorate if its not worse already , the crippled economy isn't going to have the O2 of peace anytime soon . Already , the state is all ready to surrender to the terrorist by the look of it - the talks at any and all costs . This is going to get very tough for our country here , the Muslim brotherhood will not help Islamabad , you have to fight this new war alone . The radicalized population will also not help , the monsters we created during the so called Jihad in Afghanistan are coming back to haunt us again . I see little hope with such weak military and political leadership . It even might get too late if the same indecisiveness continues , now this is scary , but this is the reality on ground . Act against them now or lament it forever , we cant find a common ground with terrorists , it amounts to giving up the freedom , writ of the state and sovereignty and all that we stand for . Only through understanding can there be recovery .

i agree with you ... but you know i think that as soon as Allied forces withdraw from Afghanistan , there will be peace in pakistan , cause Pakistan can use their Contacts in Afghan talibans to force the TTP for dialogs , i am not sure about this , but as far as i know this could and will happen, but of course not openly

 

[Icarus]

You shouldn't forget the Iran angle though..

Indeed, Iran however has maintained considerable distance from Afghanistan which I expect it to maintain especially with a government that it sees to be an American placement in the region. With sanctions also in place, Iran is in no need to honour Afghanistan's access to their ports and may indeed use the same as a bargaining chip when approaching the foreign powers which may be forced to think on the matter because they would want to see the Afghan government survive but review wont be necessary if they are already using Pakistani ports.

 

[Armstrong]

Our pitfall in the 90s were the following:

1) Attempting to let Afghanistan take its own course by not intervening in the civil war.
2) The neglect of the greater global community when Afghanistan had become a smoking cauldron of mass murder.
3) Attempting then to build a rapport with the Taliban.
4) Allowing the Taliban a political piggy back, which bought us our "Terrorist Facilitator" image.
5) Allowing everyone and their granny to cross over into Pakistan.
6) Assuming that the Taliban will be able to mould public opinion in our favour.


We're hoping we wont make the same mistakes again. There are always new experiments to be made
The last part was a joke made in good will and should be taken as such.

You know, if you take a sample size of a 100 talk-show programs on the Afghan Issue, on Terrorism etc. happening in Pakistan, I could bet you a 3 course meal, none of them would mention 1-6 but most of them would blame Pakistan, the Pakistani Establishment etc. for everything from their increased weight to playing table tennis with OBL for a few years & everything in between !

From other side - There is a deafening silence; I sincerely hope that the ISPR gets to be a bit more pro-active & employs a proper PR department that, doesn't just regurgitate statements, but goes into an Anti-Propaganda Mode to give their point of view along with the facts & the figures to shut others up !