What will happen to Pakistan as a fallout of unstable Afghanistan

[MooshMoosh]

A border deployment? This will strengthen India if Afghanistan gives a headache to Pakistan so is this the reason why they tried to push peace with both Karzai and Taliban?

Who said it'll be stable after NATO leaves?

The reality of the Afghan National Army.

Also it seems that the ANA members share intel with Taliban secretly.
Afghan special forces commander defects to Taliban | Rare

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Time to invade Afghanistan and make it new province

 

[illusion8]

@FaujHistorian,

Whatever happens in Afghanistan - it will be a lose lose situation for Pakistan.

If the Afghan Taliban wins - it will strengthen the TTP and other Islamists in Pakistan, this couple with the inherent weakness of the Pakistani state will multiply Pakistan's troubles.

If the ANA succeed in holding back the Taliban - A frustrated Taliban will target soft targets in Pakistan, a Pak hostile govt will exist in Afghanistan, many more jihaddis will pack their bags to Pakistan's border regions to fight the Afghan forces.

The one and only solution for this will be that ANA and Pakistani forces combine their strengths and route out all armed groups and factions from the border regions of both countries. - but this could have been done ages ago - the face that it hasn't happened means that it will not happen in the future as well.

A proxy war with the help of their various proxies between Afghanistan and Pakistan is what's in store as well.

To paraphrase your words the rajas in Afg and Pak will be fighting each other.

 

[AHAM BRIHMASMI]

Just fence and mine the damn border, to facilitate families on both side of border - give them on arrival visa. And yeah close all trade route, they send bombs, weapons and drugs in disguise of trade. They already have route via Iran, so we are not bound to provide them this facility. As far as our trade with Central Asia is concerned, we can go via Iran.

Plz dont take it otherwise, but our LOC experience tells that fencing the border won't be much effective. u just cant do it very effectively on hilly terrains. and intruders have all the modern shock proof wire cutters and back support. plus banning all the traffic on border can result in loosing all the pashtoon votes. and a good sub continental politician can sell his/her mother land, but cant afford to loose any vote.

 

[think@best]

Time to invade Afghanistan and make it new province

we should never think about invading afghanistan. we need a peaceful Afghanistan.

 

[Cherokee]

Like a member said in the said . Fence and mine the whole border , specially the "usual pole vaulting points" .

 

[FaujHistorian]

To paraphrase your words the rajas in Afg and Pak will be fighting each other.

Afghan warlords don't have intellectual strength to become Rajas.

This only happens East of Khyber where societies are evolved enough (and geography is "flat enough") to form larger governments aka rajas

Oh

you miss out something very important

A peaceful Afg is good for Pakistan and good for the region,.


Indian and Pakistani rajas should divide up Afghanistan and manage it.

it is time we quit killing each other and kill SOBs who threaten our region and I mean the whole forking region,.


Peace

If the ANA succeed in holding back the Taliban - A frustrated Taliban will target soft targets in Pakistan, a Pak hostile govt will exist in Afghanistan, many more jihaddis will pack their bags to Pakistan's border regions to fight the Afghan forces..

hahahah

you think ANA will be more successful against Talibarbarians than Pak army.

This shows an Indian's prejudice against Pakistan and mental slavery for Northern Alliance war lords

 

[k_arura]

@FaujHistorian,

Whatever happens in Afghanistan - it will be a lose lose situation for Pakistan.

If the Afghan Taliban wins - it will strengthen the TTP and other Islamists in Pakistan, this couple with the inherent weakness of the Pakistani state will multiply Pakistan's troubles.

If the ANA succeed in holding back the Taliban - A frustrated Taliban will target soft targets in Pakistan, a Pak hostile govt will exist in Afghanistan, many more jihaddis will pack their bags to Pakistan's border regions to fight the Afghan forces.

The one and only solution for this will be that ANA and Pakistani forces combine their strengths and route out all armed groups and factions from the border regions of both countries. - but this could have been done ages ago - the face that it hasn't happened means that it will not happen in the future as well.

A proxy war with the help of their various proxies between Afghanistan and Pakistan is what's in store as well.

To paraphrase your words the rajas in Afg and Pak will be fighting each other.

You are spot-on sir.

 

[rockstar08]

Afghanistan will go back to Taliban rule , because Afghani peoples want taliban rule there ,
plus for pakistan nothing much can be done because two biggest Tribes Mehsood and Wazir are both in Pakistan and Afghan side of border , they see no difference in Afghanistan and pakistan for them there is no border ...
i hope what ever will happen in afghanistan but Pakistan will come back to peace Inshallah

 

[Icarus]

So, what happens to Pakistan in the face of the Afghan situation? I will offer short summaries and will gladly take your questions to clarify any matter.

Scenario 1:

The first and most likely scenario is that there will be renewed vigour in the Taliban's attacks against the GoA especially if they fail to sign the Security Agreement with the US. In the face of such a situation, the Afghan govt will have to appeal to a regional power to help them with their security. Whereas Indians would love to be a part of the situation here, the question of legitimacy against the Taliban may lead Afghanistan to opt for a Muslim country. Which may be Turkey, most likely or Pakistan under compulsion.
If Pakistan is opted for as a strategic partner (which is the situation I will be dealing with), it will be of great benefit as we can train the Afghan soldiers and officers to create a lobby of pro-Pakistani members of the establishment. Pakistan will also have to bear the brunt of another refugee crisis and it will be in our interests to ensure that the GoA is able to hold their own in the face of a Talib offensive to ensure that we can minimize the refugee crisis. Supporting the GoA will also win us good standing with the Afghan public (its a long shot) and in the long run, will help us maintain our long term interests in the region.

Scenario 2:

The second scenario that I would wish to avoid is that the Taliban manage to capture Kabul once more. In which situation, a number of the major players in today's Afghanistan may have to escape to Pakistan via the border and this could ignite an extradition crisis between Pakistan and the Taliban govt. A rapid influx of refugees will burden our economy which will result in the state attempting to negotiate a power sharing or amnesty deal for the Afghan exiles. Pakistan will have to ask Saudia Arabia to help mediate the deal which means that we will have to deal with increasing Salafi influence in the region. The TTP will find complete freedom and shelter in Afghanistan which will result in their base of operations to be moved to deeper Afghan lands from where they can train and manage their operations in Pakistan without having to fear the response of the Pakistani state. This will result in increasing tensions between Pakistan and Talib Afghanistan and may escalate into skirmishes which may result in the Afghan Taliban joining forces with the TTP to participate in physical operations inside Pakistan instead of just offering shelter and tacit support.





I hope this very basic post answers some questions.

 

[Armstrong]

@Icarus - So what you're essentially trying to say is that either way we're foOked !

Because if the present Afghan Government doesn't fall they'd most certainly reignite their Loy Afghanistan BS of ages past or they'd harbor & support one or the other Anti-Pakistan Elements like they'd been up to since '48 (Every Separatist Insurgency in Baluchistan) that prompted the Bhutto-Naseerullah Babur duo to start interfering in Afghanistan to begin with but on the other hand if they - the Afghan Government - does fall then the Taliban are most likely going to come to power & say 'Hey weren't these basterds who ratted us out to the Yanks' - Its time for payback !

What confuses me here, however, is that if they - the Afghan Taliban - don't have the tacit support of the Pakistani Establishment in some way then why the heck are the Americans & the Afghans b*tching about it since ever ?

And if we do tacitly support them, read - veritable arm of the ISI, then that would imply that the Afghan Taliban aren't providing sanctuaries to the TTP or supporting them & cometh 2014 & their return they'd help us in sorting this out - Otherwise even as daft as we are....we're not that suicidal to support the Afghan Taliban (assuming that we do) despite knowing full well that they're just bidding their time & wouldn't miss a heart-beat to drive a blade in our backs ?

Ya Elahi Ye Majraa Kiyaa Haiii ?

 

[FaujHistorian]

@Icarus - So what you're essentially trying to say is that either way we're foOked !

Because if the present Afghan Government doesn't fall they'd most certainly reignite their Loy Afghanistan BS of ages past or they'd harbor & support one or the other Anti-Pakistan Elements like they'd been up to since '48 (Every Separatist Insurgency in Baluchistan) that prompted the Bhutto-Naseerullah Babur duo to start interfering in Afghanistan to begin with but on the other hand if they - the Afghan Government - does fall then the Taliban are most likely going to come to power & say 'Hey weren't these basterds who ratted us out to the Yanks' - Its time for payback !

What confuses me here, however, is that if they - the Afghan Taliban - don't have the tacit support of the Pakistani Establishment in some way then why the heck are the Americans & the Afghans b*tching about it since ever ?

And if we do tacitly support them, read - veritable arm of the ISI, then that would imply that the Afghan Taliban aren't providing sanctuaries to the TTP or supporting them & cometh 2014 & their return they'd help us in sorting this out - Otherwise even as daft as we are....we're not that suicidal to support the Afghan Taliban (assuming that we do) despite knowing full well that they're just bidding their time & wouldn't miss a heart-beat to drive a blade in our backs ?

Ya Elahi Ye Majraa Kiyaa Haiii ?

They can ignite Loy Aghanistan

That's fine


Pakistani Pashtuns are 30+ million, 100 times more educated, and 100 times better in military

Loy Afghanistan will be ruled by Pakistani Pashtuns


Then we'll see how many Afghanistanis are clamoring for the loy loy.


It is time Pakistanis quit living in fear


Heck AFgahnistanis could not defeat tiny force of Maharaja Ranjeet Singh

you think they can come defeat us now?


Stand tall my man

Stand forking tall.

peace

 

[Irfan Baloch]

fence the border
mine it
facilitate NATO withdrawal. fully and wholeheartedly support Americans.

use pesticides and gases in Waziristan operations.
upload videos of executing the taliban prisoners and make it a regular item.

follow the examples of Arab Caliphates of Bannu Umayah and Bannu Abas who killed people in the mosques and even desecrated the graves (if the Caliphs of Bannu Umyyah and Banu Abbas can do it then so can the Pakistan army)



be honest and open about drone strikes and cooperate with America in taking out the pests that show no remorse for the death of Pakistani & Afghan civilians

Pak army stop acting like Edhi trust and let the jobsworth charities & human rights work on mending hearts & minds and roads etc. Pak army only concentrate on killing and more killing.

use Israeli tactics of bulldozing and destroying the entire villages that facilitate the terrorists.

gang rape Mullah Aunty of Red Mosque and chop one ball off of Munawar Hassan and put Imran Khan in a retraining jacket while the mass killers of Pakistan army and civilians are burnt alive and shot publicly.
have all b@stard judges abducted and become lapata people who openly and knowingly freeded the terrorists who confessed their murders in the face of the courts. sell Chuadrhary Iftikhar to Baloch human traffickers

Involve Russians, Saudis, Iranians & Turks is brokering a deal between the Northern Alliance drug cartel in Kabul and the Taliban Butchers.

in case of an all out civil war in Afghanistan, dont get involved and deploy forces preventing any exodus and treat any illegal entry as hostile.

 

[slapshot]

They can ignite Loy Aghanistan

That's fine


Pakistani Pashtuns are 30+ million, 100 times more educated, and 100 times better in military

Loy Afghanistan will be ruled by Pakistani Pashtuns


Then we'll see how many Afghanistanis are clamoring for the loy loy.


It is time Pakistanis quit living in fear


Heck AFgahnistanis could not defeat tiny force of Maharaja Ranjeet Singh

you think they can come defeat us now?


Stand tall my man

Stand forking tall.

peace

I wondered if Pakistan ever considered capturing of the wakhan corridor? There are more pashtuns in pakistan then in afghanistan so agreed Pakistan should stop living in fear

 

[FaujHistorian]

I wondered if Pakistan ever considered capturing of the wakhan corridor? There are more pashtuns in pakistan then in afghanistan so agreed Pakistan should stop living in fear

No need.

At this moment we need to focus on Pakistan and Pakistan only,.

For that if we have to do Sulah Hudabia to anyone and everyone, we should

And acquire peace

to allow us to become stronger