What Taiwanese think? – 40.9% of Taiwanese willing to fight for Taiwan, and other news

[gambit]

So apparently a poll -- in peace time -- have it that only nearly half of Taiwanese would be willing to defend their country. That begs the question of what would it take to make it %50 or higher? Fools do not realize that %40 is actually a large number of defenders because not all of the PLA will be able to attack Taiwan while nearly half of Taiwan will be defending it.

Not all of the PLA? Then how many? How many soldiers depends on how many ships.

In WW II Operation Overlord, aka D-Day, the Allies landed 150,000 troops supported by a fleet of...

https://theddaystory.com/discover/w..., the Allies,Beach, and 7,900 airborne troops.

... the Allies landed around 156,000 troops...

...including 6,939 vessels: 1,213 naval combat ships, 4,126 landing ships and landing craft, 736 ancillary craft and 864 merchant vessels.
​

That is 4,126 vessels that actually made landfall. Not the entire fleet. Let us be really generous and give China 200,000 landing troops.

The Taiwanese military is about 300,000 with over 2.5 million reserves. What is 1/2 of that reserve? Let us low ball and say 1 million.

Five to one on home turf.

 

[casual]

And the PLAN is not capable of controlling the strait even a few months, let along indefinitely. Taiwan's land based cruise missiles would -- not merely could -- threaten the entire strait corridor. It will more than a scratch to the PLAN. Try a few broken bones.

ever heard of submarines?

 

[gambit]

ever heard of submarines?

Am USAF veteran ( F-111 Cold War, F-16 Desert Storm). I have never heard of a 'submarine'. What is that?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

And the PLAN is not capable of controlling the strait even a few months, let along indefinitely. Taiwan's land based cruise missiles would -- not merely could -- threaten the entire strait corridor. It will more than a scratch to the PLAN. Try a few broken bones.

How are they going to target over the horizon? They can barely control these missiles during peacetime exercises such as in 2016 when they hit a Taiwanese fishing boat with a Hsiung Feng 3 battery.

Taiwan only has an arsenal of a few hundred anti-ship missiles (250 Hsiung Feng 3), 183 Harpoons. How will they rebuild when production facilities are destroyed?

How will they prevent their launchers from being discovered and destroyed from the air?

How are they going to deal with destroyers with networked air defense systems, which was designed to deal with near peer levels of saturation cruise missile attacks?

250 Hsiung Feng 3 and 180 Harpoons is not enough for saturation; they can't all be fired at once and even if they could, a single 055 has 112 VLS that can be completely filled with SAMs.

 

[casual]

Am USAF veteran ( F-111 Cold War, F-16 Desert Storm). I have never heard of a 'submarine'. What is that?

a underwater boat with missiles and torpedoes that's designed to enforce a blockade and is immune to your cruise missiles. face it, China could cut off Taiwan for years if it wants to as it has overwhelming air and naval superiority.

 

[gambit]

a underwater boat with missiles and torpedoes that's designed to enforce a blockade and is immune to your cruise missiles.

No shit...!!! That is what a 'submarine' is? I have no idea that technology have gone so far.

 

[gambit]

How are they going to target over the horizon? They can barely control these missiles during peacetime exercises such as in 2016 when they hit a Taiwanese fishing boat with a Hsiung Feng 3 battery.

Taiwan only has an arsenal of a few hundred anti-ship missiles (250 Hsiung Feng 3), 183 Harpoons. How will they rebuild when production facilities are destroyed?

How will they prevent their launchers from being discovered and destroyed from the air?

How are they going to deal with destroyers with networked air defense systems, which was designed to deal with near peer levels of saturation cruise missile attacks?

250 Hsiung Feng 3 and 180 Harpoons is not enough for saturation; they can't all be fired at once and even if they could, a single 055 has 112 VLS that can be completely filled with SAMs.

How will? Do you really believe that just because you cannot find the answer on the Internet, that means it cannot be done? Especially when national security is at stake? And that you never served to learn how the military do things? You can use this 'How will' argument over at the Chinese forums that are filled with ignorant fools, and with most of the ignorant fools on this forum, but not with me. This 'How will' argument is more to make you guys feel better, not that it will illuminate the issue. But then again, this is about national security so we do not want to illuminate anything until the last moments when it is too late for the PLA.

To defeat Taiwan, China MUST invade. To defeat China, Taiwan just have to survive. And you have been informed how difficult it is to invade -- %20.

So please, spare us these 'How will' silly questions that no one can answer.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

How will? Do you really believe that just because you cannot find the answer on the Internet, that means it cannot be done? Especially when national security is at stake? And that you never served to learn how the military do things? You can use this 'How will' argument over at the Chinese forums that are filled with ignorant fools, and with most of the ignorant fools on this forum, but not with me. This 'How will' argument is more to make you guys feel better, not that it will illuminate the issue. But then again, this is about national security so we do not want to illuminate anything until the last moments when it is too late for the PLA.

To defeat Taiwan, China MUST invade. To defeat China, Taiwan just have to survive. And you have been informed how difficult it is to invade -- %20.

So please, spare us these 'How will' silly questions that no one can answer.

There's nothing Taiwan can do against PLAN air defense destroyers backed by naval aviation.

The sole casualty of ROC Navy missiles have been Taiwanese fishermen who unfortunately don't have the networked air defense systems necessary to stop these missiles.

Maybe Taiwanese fishermen can ask PLAN for protection so they will not fall victim to ROC Navy accidents.

 

[gambit]

There's nothing Taiwan can do against PLAN air defense destroyers backed by naval aviation.

The sole casualty of ROC Navy missiles have been Taiwanese fishermen who unfortunately don't have the networked air defense systems necessary to stop these missiles.

Maybe Taiwanese fishermen can ask PLAN for protection so they will not fall victim to ROC Navy accidents.

Spare everyone the rhetoric and the cheap insults. I provided YOU with hard info as to why China essentially cannot invade Taiwan and invade is the only thing for China. Even as inexperience as the PLA, I doubt PLA generals make war plans based on mockeries.

 

[Feng Leng]

Am USAF veteran ( F-111 Cold War, F-16 Desert Storm). I have never heard of a 'submarine'. What is that?

You were just an enlisted man. Not an officer, much less a pilot LOL.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Spare everyone the rhetoric and the cheap insults. I provided YOU with hard info as to why China essentially cannot invade Taiwan and invade is the only thing for China. Even as inexperience as the PLA, I doubt PLA generals make war plans based on mockeries.

you can dish the worst insults towards the PLA and dress it up as objective, but I can't just lightly remind you that ROC Navy has a proven lack of professionalism?

 

[gambit]

You were just an enlisted man. Not an officer, much less a pilot LOL.

I was General of the US Air Force. A five-star officer.

 

[gambit]

you can dish the worst insults towards the PLA and dress it up as objective, but I can't just lightly remind you that ROC Navy has a proven lack of professionalism?

The same can be said for the PLA.

 

[Feng Leng]

I don’t think people understand how Taiwanese think. I will be happy to reply if anyone has any questions.


First a little about myself, I am originally from Taiwan. Most of my relatives are hardcore for Taiwan Independence (I will call them TIers). I also have friends who are mainlanders. Here in the USA, most of my friends are Mainlanders. But all my family functions are with TIers.


I myself firmly believe China and Taiwan belong to each other.


The first link talked about how strong is the will for Taiwanese to fight for Taiwan Independence.

https://www.ettoday.net/news/20200720/1764795.htm

It is in Traditional Chinese, so let me translate the main point. From the polling conducted between 7/15/2020 to 7/16/2020, if the war between China and Taiwan occurs, are you or (your children if you are older) willing to fight for Taiwan.

The result is as follows: 40.9% willing vs. 49.1% not willing. Now, compare to the same poll conducted on April 2018, the one on 4/2018 is 23.6% willing vs. 73.3% not willing.


There are two ways to look at this result.


Note that the poll is not asking do you want to fight for Taiwan Independence. The poll is asking when the war already started, do you want to fight for Taiwan. Even for the cases that China went nuts and start evading Taiwan (even without declaring Taiwan Independence), much more Taiwanese have no interest in fighting for Taiwan.


What this means is if a war does start and China is able to land significant troops on Taiwan. There is extremely high probability that many Taiwanese troops will either surrender or turn against Taiwan itself.


But it is not all good news for China completely. From the same poll, from 4/2018 to 7/2020, the number of Taiwanese willing to fight goes up significantly from 23.6% to 40.9%.


It is as expected. As Taiwanese government had shown in the past 5 years, she is the first government who continuously attack China without suffering much counter attacks from China. Now, average Taiwanese are seeing governments such as Australia and USA are doing the same thing with similar results. Many Taiwanese start to feel braver.


If there are some other news from Taiwan, I might post them here (if enough people are interested).

The American health secretary Alex Azar will visit Taiwan this month. China will conduct massive dual aircraft carrier battlegroup exercises on the eastern coast of Taiwan in response.

It looks like USA is about to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan very soon. Probably before the November election. Secretary of State Pompeo will go to Taiwan to establish diplomatic relations. Then China will launch air and missile strikes directly on Taiwan targets.

List of China's enemies and their spanking:

Xinjiang separatists -- defeated in 2017 using reeducation camps

Hong Kong separatists -- defeated in 2020 using mass arrests

Taiwan separatists -- to be defeated in late 2020 using air and missile strikes

Philippines -- defeated in 2020 after Scarborough Shoal navy exercises

Vietnam -- defeated in 2020 after oil companies abandoned exploration

Malaysia -- defeated in 2020 after oil companies abandoned exploration

India -- defeated in 2020 after Galway Valley clash

USA -- mortally wounded by coronavirus, dollar hegemony weakened in 2020

 

[Feng Leng]

I was General of the US Air Force. A five-star officer.

LMFAO you must be the first Vietnamese American five star air force general. Why doesn't your name appear in the news?