What Taiwanese think? – 40.9% of Taiwanese willing to fight for Taiwan, and other news

[gambit]

...once air superiority is gained.

We have gone thru this already.

In Desert Storm, the US had air superiority and yet we still took hits from Iraqi ground forces. You want to apply Desert Storm? You will have to deal with Taiwanese ground defense that are qualitatively better than the Iraqis. Magnitude -- better.

So how long UNTIL that 'once' day? How much experience does the PLAAF have in targeting mountainsides, which are more difficult than hitting flat plains?

Taiwan do not need to have air superiority over the island, just enough to move the invasion fleet out of that narrow %20 window. Remember, we hit the Iraqis for 40 days before the army decided on a day to move. Taiwan defenders will not go ship-to-ship or plane-to-plane against the PLA to let the PLA know it does not have 3 weeks, let alone 40+ days, before the strait deny the PLAN passage, and the invasion fleet will be vulnerable in ports while waiting for the PLAAF working to establish that air superiority UNTIL that 'once' day.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

We have gone thru this already.

In Desert Storm, the US had air superiority and yet we still took hits from Iraqi ground forces. You want to apply Desert Storm? You will have to deal with Taiwanese ground defense that are qualitatively better than the Iraqis. Magnitude -- better.

So how long UNTIL that 'once' day? How much experience does the PLAAF have in targeting mountainsides, which are more difficult than hitting flat plains?

Taiwan do not need to have air superiority over the island, just enough to move the invasion fleet out of that narrow %20 window. Remember, we hit the Iraqis for 40 days before the army decided on a day to move. Taiwan defenders will not go ship-to-ship or plane-to-plane against the PLA to let the PLA know it does not have 3 weeks, let alone 40+ days, before the strait deny the PLAN passage, and the invasion fleet will be vulnerable in ports while waiting for the PLAAF working to establish that air superiority UNTIL that 'once' day.

1. 1991 USAF and USN only could launch 280 precision guided Tomahawks at Iraq but 2020 PLAAF and PLAN can launch 2000+ precision guided ballistic missiles alone at Iraq. 9% of air launched munitions for 1991 USAF and USN were precision guided, 100% of air launched munitions for the PLAAF and PLAN will be precision guided.

2. 1991 USN could not use their Arleigh Burkes to prevent Iraqi aircraft from taking off. 2020 PLAN can, even from harbor, cover the entirety of Taiwan with a 055 or 052D destroyer air defense umbrella.

3. With a qualitatively and quantitatively inferior air force and navy that can neither flee nor defeat the PLAAF and PLAN, Taiwan cannot stop naval artillery, helicopters and rocket artillery from clearing their beach defenses. They cannot stop anti-mine ships from removing their mines.

4. The weather in the Taiwan strait does not preclude ship passage other times of the year, the geostrophic reversal you pointed out was found only during the winter months. The objective is for an uncontested or lightly contested landing, which will occur when air superiority is attained and helicopters/rockets/artillery have cleared the beach of ROC armor and artillery.

5. Most Taiwanese cities including Taipei itself are on flat coastal plains.

 

[gambit]

1. 1991 USAF and USN only could launch 280 precision guided Tomahawks at Iraq but 2020 PLAAF and PLAN can launch 2000+ precision guided ballistic missiles alone at Iraq. 9% of air launched munitions for 1991 USAF and USN were precision guided, 100% of air launched munitions for the PLAAF and PLAN will be precision guided.

Say what? Only could launch? Buddy, we could have launched more than 280 -- if we wanted. So what are you talking about when you said 'only'? That 280 was all we had ? The weather did not permit more? The rest were broken?

Cruise missiles are good against known fixed targets and that was how we used them in Desert Storm to disrupt communication and disorient the Iraqi leadership. Even today, manned fighters are better for mobile forces. The PLAAF do not have the numbers involved in Desert Storm. Further, many Iraqi hardened targets required multiple visits from both unmanned and manned platforms. Taiwan is fully aware of the missile centric doctrine of the PLA and have planned survival around that. The PLA know that many fixed targets WILL BE decoys but it also know it has no choice but expend missiles against the suspected decoys. So you can count on a large number of precision missiles to be literally wasted.

...PLAN can, even from harbor, cover the entirety of Taiwan with a 055 or 052D destroyer air defense umbrella.

Can, but not will. It would be foolish to do so. Harbors limits maneuvers and no captain want his ship to be that vulnerable. That was a nonsensical statement that even this Air Force guy can see it.

...Taiwan cannot stop naval artillery, helicopters and rocket artillery from clearing their beach defenses.

The issue for Taiwan is not stopping those efforts but to delay or prolong them. Taiwan have its own missiles that are qualitatively equal to China's.

They cannot stop anti-mine ships from removing their mines.

And it will cost China in that effort.

4. The weather in the Taiwan strait does not preclude ship passage other times of the year, the geostrophic reversal you pointed out was found only during the winter months.

I also pointed out other strait weather conditions that narrowed the PLA's window down to that %20 OUTSIDE the winter months.

The objective is for an uncontested or lightly contested landing, which will occur when air superiority is attained and helicopters/rockets/artillery have cleared the beach of ROC armor and artillery.

Which will destroy the landing site in the process.

5. Most Taiwanese cities including Taipei itself are on flat coastal plains.

Yes, the Taiwanese are fully aware of that. The question still stands: How much experience does the PLAAF have in hitting targets on mountainsides? I have my manual from my Air Force days with a section about that. Am curious as who told you how 'easy' it would be for Taiwan.

So...How many days will it take for the PLAAF to achieve air superiority over Taiwan that will enable those lightly contested landings?

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

One can talk until the cows come home but the fate of Taiwan Island is inevitable like late Mr Lee Kuan Yew said.
It be be reunited with the mainland sooner or later.
More and more Taiwanese will seek a home in the mainland. It has already begun decade ago.

 

[Bengal71]

Taiwan has no hope of remaining 'independent'. It's only the parasitic boot lickers of foreign powers who will try to keep this issue alive to remain in power. There is simply no reason whatsoever as to why Taiwan needs to remain independent, they are Chinese people, China is their homeland and Taiwan island is the historically part of China.

 

[redtom]

In fact, this kind of investigation doesn't make any sense. Logically, if 40% would like to go to war, then at least 60% would like to join the army. Then at least 80% would like to increase the military budget.

Instead, the military service in Taiwan has been reduced to 4 months. What is this, summer camp? Taiwan's government continues to shrink benefits for former soldiers.

Claiming war but not preparing for war, I don't think that's serious.