I find that video somewhat neutral that is why i posted it .. Honestly I do believe China will put up a good Fight but they are not yet there to defeat an all out invasion of US with all its assets in involved , US is still ahead of China and they catching up fast enough ..
my questions are as follow ..
1- In the Video the presenter has not much shed light on Chinese Submarine Fleet which is good both in Quality and quantity , so besides the Pi8 Anti-Sub Air craft what other option USN will have to tackle the huge Fleet of PLAAN ? a combination of these Subs and their DDG's there will be quite a lot of Anti-Ship Missiles firing towards USN fleet .
The problem for PLAAN is their Information warfare section. Being outnumber wit hall type of ship is one thing, but unable to detect and track them over the vast ocean is another. The process known as ISTAR which the US have invested significant asset and resource in.
The problem is that in East China Seas alone, there are 5 entry point that can break into the Chinese Coast, Stretching from Okinawa to Taiwan. Chinese Navy ship will need to break into 3 tacticals column (or fleets), one column put in reserve, one for military shipping intridiction, and the last one for commerce shipping interdiction.
There are not enough Chinese ship to guard all 5 entry points from East China Seas, when you also put South China Seas and Sea of Japan as well, there are no way China can cover all of their coast at the same time. Because you need to remember, for a defender, they will need to defend the whole length of the coast, but for the attacker, they only need to choose one or 2 entry points. So either Chinese Navy will try to thin out her force and cover all possible entry point (which is a bad move) or Chinese Navy will have to engage the US Navy like the Japanese do during WW2 which is form some sort of Mobile Task force to group together and go up and down patrolling the coast
However, without a dedicated ISTAR, it will take a long time for the Chinese to require target and engage them in a timely manner, on the other hand, US ISTAR network is quite well established, which mean they can pick up and track the Chinese fleet before the Chinese can detect the US fleet. Effectively, US will try to deal with Chinese Surface fleet first, overwhelming the Chinese surface ship force using the Destoryers and Naval Aviation while avoiding the Chinese sub, then when the surface support is gone, the US will start using their naval and air asset to tackle Chinese subsurface threat.
Now, China have some 30 destoryer, with around 60 submarine, however, most of them are older outdated model, where as US have an All-Aegis Destory and Cruiser and nuclear power sub. Which mean Chinese will need their ISTAR capability more than the US
2- Do you think that Japan will enter the war with its Air force and Navy cause US will be using Japanese Bases as you mentioned and if they did, won't it bring Russia into that War ? along with other Chinese Allies ( not Talking about Pakistan )
I don't understand why Russia will involve in the war once Japan was involved, the reason why Japan will be involved is because they are being attacked by the Chinese, unless Japan decided to have a go at Russia for whatever reason, Russia should not be involved in this scenario.
Also, Russian involvement will most definitely drag NATO with it, which is something China do not want. So I cannot see how Russia will be involved, even how China would want Russia to get involve.
Also, beside Pakistan and North Korea, there are not other Chinese Allies in the region that can do some damage to the US.
3- How many Carrier battle groups you think USN will pitch against the collective PLAAN ? will they be close enough for Chinese to concentrate their Attack on certain epicenter , or USN carrier groups will be scattered across the Indian Ocean and South China Seas ? which will be best option ?
US will most likely deploy 6 CBG with 3 to 4 Assault Group with mini-Carrier each to deal with the PLAAN in a total war sitaution.
US will most likely stretch out the war into multiple front. So they will put 2 CBG in the Indian Ocean, 2 CBG with 2 AAG in South China Seas, another 2 CBG and 2 AAG in East China seas.
4- Do you think that US will even if have Air superiority will Invade the main Chinese land with Ground forces ? Chinese have 2.2 Million roughly Standing Army and even if they front 1 Million it will be really bad for US ground units even with complete or Partially Air cover, Cause i think Chinese will use their Man-Pads and Portable SAMS FM-90 to prevent their Forwarding force getting pinned down by USAF , so how do you think US marines will counter the Numerical Advantage keeping the points in mind i mentioned ..
Ground war is not likely unless there are a direct ground route to China, and if that is the case, the US military will most likely try something like they did during Operation Desert Storm. Where as the USMC will act as bait and pose to launch a Seaborne Assault to drive the Chinese defender out of the potential invasion route, then pour man and resource to the invasion route.
Also, it worth notice that numerical superiority did not actually exist, because of the defence parameter. Which number always favor the attackers, simply because if I have 4 front lines (forming a square) to defend, you will need to defend all 4 fronts in order to prevent the enemy from getting into the center of the square, however, for the attacker, you only ever need to break one front. A prime example is the Battle of Singapore during WW2, where the Brits outnumber the Japanese 4:1 but due to the need to defend all the lines on the tiny island of Singapore, the brits was outnumbered locally.
MANPAD affected gunship more than Fastair, not too many fixwing aircraft was brought down by MANPAD during both war in Iraq and Afghanistan, there are SOP to deal with MANPAD/SAM threats, overall, it does not hamper USAF CAS operation much.
5- Last, as a Neutral Person what do you think China should do in case of War which lasts months to prevent a full on defeat ? and stretching the Time of war, will it help US or China more Relatively ?
Thanks and Apologize in Advance if some questions sounds silly
I am trying to learn it like a layman ..
It would work agaisnt China to stretch out the war, unless you are talking about stretching it over decades.
US only have a faction of their resource deployed in Asia, roughly 1/8th of the force has been deployed to the fareast. If China want to avoid a full on defeat, then what Chinese need to do is to take the initiative to the US Military, engage and attack the US asset in Asia now before US can reinforce their position and pushes the US force as far as they could
The further the Chinese can push the American away so they will have to start further away from China the better, it will give China more time to prepare and recover for the US reinforcement
The more time the Chinese gave the American to wait for reinforment, the harder the Chinese can fought with a half strength or full strenght US Navy.US can bring a lot more resource to bear on China, on the other hand, Chinese need o build their force from stratch.
Hope it help answering your question
