I know many will think my conclusion is daring and outrageous but please read through my well thought analysis. From the events to date, you all can slowly see how the events unfold and how are they related one to another especially the date are so close.
First of all, lets look at this event
President Xi visit Pakistan in april 2015 to sign the mega USD46 billion deal that is one of the largest and most ambition plan for China Pakistan. A plan China hope can boast Pakistan economy while at the same time ,make China less reliance on Strait of Malacca for import of fuel. Despite the massive investment, Pakistan is a sovereign nation and regards to responsible of protecting Gwadar port still lies on Pakistan.
The best way to protect this port is to have an fighter aircraft capable of neutralise coming airthreat from huge Indian Ocean while at the same time capable of striking the enemy at a projected range. These puts Su-27 series aircraft in the foreline. It is an aircraft with exceptional range given its huge size, massive payload of at least 9tons ammunition carries. Most of all, a very agile aircraft despite it huge airframe. The twin engine will also ensure better survival in case one engine breaks down. Su-35 touted the most advance Sukhoi series with air superiority, ground and sea attack is an attractive option for PAF. While we do know China produces the Su-27 series aircraft domestically under J-XX series with license from Russian for 200 airframe. But in terms of license issue interpretation to China and Russian is always an issue for both in the 2000s times. It was finally settle in 2008 when Russian president Dmitry Medvedev visited China and both agree on the issue. China was allowed to continue produce as much J-XX series of Su-27 lineage as she deemed but not allow to export any of this lineage to compete with Russian.
This will means Pakistan is not able to get any of China modify or made Su-27 series aircraft and the only possible way to obtain such heavy weight fighter is to buy from Russian made.
Then we look at another piece of interesting news this September.
Russian Deputy FM comfirmed interest and talks regard to purchase of SU-35 by PAF although not much detailed is mention due to the sensitivity of selling Russian most advance Su-27 series to PAF against Russian biggest arm buyer ,India. Russian is eager to expand its shrinking aviation export and the fact, IAF is looking more towards the west with purchase of 36 Rafale. Russian needs to look at all potential customers and PAF is definitely one of them. Russian in past has export a number of weapon systems or equipment to PAF like RD-93 engines, Mi-17 and possible Mi-35 gunship with success. RD-93 engine which is critical to JF-17 project is only possible through the blessing of China acting as middle man to shut India complaint of Russia export weapons to Pakistan, India arch rival.
Finally, we look at this new.
China after talking about buying Su-35 for almost 5 years finally inked the deal recently and most importantly, the urgent timing of the delivery in 2016 plus a small amount of SU-35 purchase, raise an eyebrow.
Why China purchase only 24 Su-35 since China is such a big and rich country? She definitely needs more than 24 Su-35 if she needs to defend her land and sea. But some critics will argue China purchase a minimum of 24 Su-35 just to get their hands on reverse engineering of critical component like 117S engine. But lets look at some other facts.
This is an extract from an interview with Lin zuoming, Chairman of AVIC who comment on WS-10 'Taihang" engine series. He mention WS-10 series engine in the latest version WS-10B has surpassed Russian engine technology in terms of lifespan, performance and reliability and claim the latest version of Taihang engine can produce 140Ktons while Russian 117S is just a slight mere of 142Ktons thrust as compare.
Why would China spend so much trouble just to get an almost similar performance and spec engine? Then some critics will argue besides the engine, the other sub systems may interested the Chinese like PESA radar onboard. Lets look at another aircraft currently in development and will enter series soon.
View attachment 273536
You can see the aircraft spotted with WS-10 series engine and a slanted nose cone suggesting AESA radar. China produced J-XX series aircraft are using high level of composite and 3D printing which proves the airframe superior in any aspect compare to Russian Su-35 in terms of structure strength,weight and lifespan.
Another aircraft with slanted cone and is due to be in service is the J-10B which comfirms spotted with an AESA radar proves J-11D has the same AESA radar(more powerful due to bigger size)from the same institute.
View attachment 273537
Then this question comes into your mind. Why would China purchase 24 Su-35 when China has better option like J-11D? I think I need not tell you the answer where these 24 Su-35 will go to.
And please do not ask for comfirmation of China purchase 24 Su-35 transfer to PAF. Since this is an under table deal. There will not be any official statement regards the transfer. You will see it when these Su-35 started working on PAF airbase or spotted with PAF ensign. By going these route, Russian can shelve all problem to the Chinese and need no answer to India allegation of export advance weapon system to Pakistan while at the same time opening up another market for its shrinking aviation export and market the Su-35 for more potential customers.
