CrazyZ
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Well said. My only comment is that this deal is both a win and defeat the USA. Its a defeat for the Bush and Obama doctrines in the region. The USA is accomplishing its counter terrorism goals so its a win from that perspective.First of all, this is not defeat of USA in Afghanistan.
All should pay close attention to PART ONE set of clauses (primary) in the deal. US have secured all of its security-related interests in the region - no compromises in this matter.
Afghanistan at large will remain committed to War On Terror (COIN) agenda irrespective who sits on the throne in Kabul. Afghan Taliban have officially committed to this agenda as well. This deal allow US to carry out COIN operations in the region and Afghanistan will also commit manpower for the needful.
So what has changed?
This deal will facilitate Intra-Afghan dialogue between Afghan Taliban and opposition groups to iron out a mutually acceptable political roadmap for Afghanistan on the whole. Restructuring of Afghan politics might be on the cards with power-sharing arrangements in the mix. Democratic system will remain an important consideration nevertheless.
With Afghan Taliban fully committed to peace and dialogue, current force posture of NATO will no longer be necessary and another major drawdown is very likely. I think that American special forces and CIA will remain in Afghanistan for indefinite period. Although the threat of privatization of this war effort have diminished.
This is a WIN - WIN deal for both US and Afghan Taliban in the long term if followed to the letter.
This is also a victory for Afghan Taliban because they have become politically relevant in the region once again and are no longer tainted by their past because they have officially committed to War On Terror as well.
There are 3 power camps in Afghanistan now.
1. Ghani camp
2. Abdullah camp
3. Afghan Taliban
Abdullah camp have backing of one of the most powerful warlords in Afghanistan therefore its influence and stake cannot be underestimated. Pakistan should reach out to this camp in order to convince it to work with Afghan Taliban and Pakistan.
With Indian support axed, Ghani camp is rather pliable and will fall in line.