US suspends military aid to Pakistan. Military says it doesn't need it.

[salvage]

You're right. I was disgusted that they be groping old and kids instead of people of Arab or Asian descent. Doesn't make sense unless Obama is working for the Islamic terrorists.

Those old and kids are living American dream....well done

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

And the cycle continues - cut off of aid and sanctions on Pakistan as the US 'disengages from Afghanistan' - deja vu or what?

Those who have followed Pakistani commentators familiar with the thinking in the Pakistani military WRT US-Pak relations know that they had always cautioned that the US could not be trusted to maintain a long term relationship with Pakistan, given past history and current US and Pakistan geo-political dynamics, and that the military itself was never completely sold on the idea of a US Establishment that would not repeat the past.

Personally I am glad that the 'Military Aid' has been cut off, at least now the continuation of certain policies cannot be blamed on the 'military generals doing it for dollars' - since civilian aid is continuing, responsibility for the continuity of current policies is solely on the shoulders of the civilian government led by Zardari and his lackey's in the PPP.

 

[SMC]

with 350 billion dollar of foreign exchange reserve

ok now tell me what is the current account inflow of pakistan , then compare your economy with India's

But our deficit is about 10-15 billion between exports and imports. Yet we get maybe 1 billion in aid, and only got 8 billion so far (one time loan) from IMF. And we've been running this deficit for a while now.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Pakistan army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas declined comment on the suspension. He pointed to comments by Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who last month said U.S. military aid should be diverted to civilian projects.

U.S. suspends $800-million in aid to Pakistan: White House - The Globe and Mail

Kayani is the man. Although i certainly believe that the operation in Kuram needs to continue, the people living in that area have suffered long enough against the TTP. PA needs to come down at TTP with a hammer, but an operation in NW should not be launched as this will drain the Army out of all its resources.

I thought about this as soon as I read about the Aid suspension - Kayani and the Army top brass were already aware of the possibility, and had essentially told the US to go ahead and do it, through the above statement made publicly.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

BTW - a lot of commentators are throwing around '$2 billion in military aid annually' but that figure is far from accurate, given the actual money provided in military aid and reimbursements annually during the last couple of years.

 

[Mo12]

Btw it's not cut off, according to BBC article the funds are Suspended.

So that could mean for 1 week or month.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You're right. I was disgusted that they be groping old and kids instead of people of Arab or Asian descent. Doesn't make sense unless Obama is working for the Islamic terrorists.

Richard Reid was Caucasian-Jamaican descent.

Underwear bomber was African descent.

Adam Yahiye Gadahn is Caucasian.

Unabomber was Caucasian.

'Your comment only makes sense if you are working for racists.'

---------- Post added at 08:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 PM ----------

Btw it's not cut off, according to BBC article the funds are Suspended.

So that could mean for 1 week or month.

Suspended or cutoff - same thing.

 

[VCheng]

BTW - a lot of commentators are throwing around '$2 billion in military aid annually' but that figure is far from accurate, given the actual money provided in military aid and reimbursements annually during the last couple of years.

It is now clear to me that the monies paid to Pakistan are not worth the trouble for both sides. I think that the next steps should be to freeze ALL aid, and then finally to cut off diplomatic ties, just like Iran did years ago. After all, they have survived, so I suppose Pakistan can do that too. Right?

 

[manojb]

This is good for Pakistan to enhance and fix our tax collection system. US military equipment cannot be relied on due to interruptions in sustained delivery of parts by the US over the past 5 decades. Having sanction prone equipment is a No-No even to start with.

And not to forget too many tracking devises (bugs) installed!!

 

[Meengla]

In all this, I have to laugh at the smart-a$$ generals like GENERAL PRESIDENT Musharraf who thought he could outfox Americans without winning a peace with India. As late as 2000--when Clinton visited India (and Pakistan--for 4 hours)--it was obvious that the 'most allied ally' status of Pakistan had ended. The Cold War was over. About a decade ago. In parts of the 90s, Pakistan was on a potential 'Terrorism Watch List'--long before 9/11. India was the new darling for America. China was the new threat. Something has to feed the 'beast'. Let it not 'starve'.
The threat to Pakistan was obvious several years before 9/11. Bin Laden had already done his evil-deeds a plenty.
But stupid Pakistani planners did not much to make their Taliban allies literally remove or kill OBL and his band of outlandish Arab terrorists from Pakistan's vicinity. It would have taken not much more than a few dedicated elite (and suicidal) Pakistani commandoes to behead the Al-Qaida leadership. But, no, we had these stupid leaders who were clever by half. Who could even entertain leaders freed from Indian prisons in exchange for--gasp--a plane hijacking to Kandahar.

That's all under the water.

Now, as Pakistan is being framed--slowly, but surely, without any evidence of official complicity--the damned civilian and military leadership seems to be sleeping at the wheel again. They need to realize that a false-flag operation is most probably being hatched against Pakistan. Some kind of drastic steps are required. Stop all Pakistanis travel to the States except through stringest controls. It will hurt. But otherwise it will hurt even more.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It is now clear to me that the monies paid to Pakistan are not worth the trouble for both sides. I think that the next steps should be to freeze ALL aid, and then finally to cut off diplomatic ties, just like Iran did years ago. After all, they have survived, so I suppose Pakistan can do that too. Right?

Pakistan is not providing the aid so it is not up to us to 'freeze it', nor does Pakistan need to 'cut off diplomatic ties', at this moment. The provision, or lack of, US aid is not reason to end ties - this is US money after all, and they can do what they wish with it. Pakistan's responsibility here is in no longer providing any services to the US (logistical support etc.) that it was earlier in exchange for that money, and start to devise plans to limit ALL US military and intelligence operations in Pakistan, that are considered detrimental to Pakistan.

We need to elect a government that will reflect the wishes of its electorate in foreign policy and governance - that is the only way forward.

 

[Developereo]

So what are the potential consequences of an American aid cut-off?

The military will lose out on some fancy new toys. The feudals and industrialists will lose their subsidies and will start gouging the population instead. There is zero chance that the government will enact any tax or economic reforms, so the likely outcome will be Pakistan defaulting on its debts. This, again, will hit the ordinary Pakistani hardest since he doesn't have most of his saving stashed away in foreign banks like the elites.

 

[Meengla]

@Developereo,
Someone with a better background in economy can better answer than me. Nonetheless, here is my understanding.
My understanding is that the US 'aid' goes into compensation for the military operation carried out by 100,000+ Pakistani troops in the Pakistani northwest. Pakistan is a very poor country and 100,000+ troops are lot to deploy in combat missions over extended periods. Sadly, Pakistan will have to cut back on some of the operations/deployments against them--and there have been many in FATA alone over past several years. The damned terrorists will be so happy that finally the heat is off them--and believe me, drones are nothing compared to the Pakistani military operations against them.
Pakistan will start saving money by cutting down the operations.

However, it is not the American 'aid' which is the pivotal consideration here. It is the trade with the West. The IMF loans. Even foreign remittance can be choked off by some legal ways. Even without the UN approval, the West, under American directive, can hurt Pakistani economy big way.

Default is almost certain.

What happens in a loan default? I don't know.

My educated guess is that, unlike closed, tyrannical countries like N. Korea, Pakistan has a lot of collective wisdom, pluralism, democracy, natural resources AND powerful foreign friends who can ensure a defaulted-Pakistan continues to feed its population. This will call for a revolution of sort: Different parts of the population coming together on some interim setup. I think it is entirely likely. Pakistan have done so in 1971, 1988, and 2008 (E. Pakistan war and its consequences; Zia's death; Benazir's death and elections; respectively) where the ruling classes buried their differences for some minimal common agenda.

Remember that: Pakistan has significant civil society, free judiciary, very philanthropic population, free media, and media class, great agriculture lands, working services and industries, along with a powerful military. Things are not as bad as the noise make it out to be.

 

[Developereo]

Meengla,

Well, I was specifically focussing on the American aid itself. I agree that a concerted effort by the US to choke off Pakistan financially -- at the IMF, trade and other avenues -- will have serious consequences, but the direct US aid itself it only a small part of Pakistan's economy. I also agree that it will have an adverse effect on the WOT.

As for defaulting, I also don't know the details. Argentina defaulted and it seems to have bounced back reasonably well. For all our enemies, we also have some very rich friends out there -- Saudi Arabia and China will also help Pakistan remain solvent.

 

[Solomon2]

There is zero chance that the government will enact any tax or economic reforms, so the likely outcome will be Pakistan defaulting on its debts.

Are you speaking of foreign debts or domestic debts?