US plans to bomb Miranshah and kill 200 civilians in revenge?

[karan.1970]

To make any serious dent in the alleged Haqqani network based in NW, the US would have to literally occupy all of NW for an extended period of time with thousands of troops - but if that happens, the Taliban would likely just relocate to the surrounding agencies in FATA, tap into the anger and anti-American sentiment over the invasion and occupation of Pakistani/FATA territory, recruit tens of thousands more fighters from across Pakistan, and keep fighting the US in both NW and Afghanistan as an even more potent and powerful militant group.

So, if 'invasion and occupation of NW' is not feasible, and 'targeted air strikes' that are already being carried out are not working, then the only thing left to do is indiscriminate bombing of North Waziristan, which would result in TENS OF THOUSANDS OF INNOCENT DEATHS, not just 200.

Not really.. There is one more option and that is disrupting and taking out the alleged network of ISI-Haqquani collaboration by eliminating HVTs either through operations like Abbotabad or continuous interdiction like they did in Columbia with the drug lords..

War of occupation is bound to fail in today's environment...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Not really.. There is one more option and that is disrupting and taking out the alleged network of ISI-Haqquani collaboration by eliminating HVTs either through operations like Abbotabad or continuous interdiction like they did in Columbia with the drug lords..

I mentioned that particular option in my post - the incessant 'drone strikes' in NW and FATA. The US is using its self declared 'extensive intelligence network on the ground and aerial surveillance through UAV's', so why have these 'HVT's' not already been taken out? Any part of the Haqqani leadership that is functioning in an 'operational capacity' is likely close to the 'action' in Afghanistan and FATA. The leadership in hiding elsewhere plays a largely 'ceremonial' role. Given the negligible impact on the TTP despite three sets of leaders (Nek Mohammed, Abdullah Mehsud, Baitullah Mehsud) being killed, I don't see reason to expect a significant impact on the Haqqani network from the killing of HVT's that are in hiding and not involved in operational activities to any significant degree to begin with.

And what exactly has been stopping the US from doing 'continuous interdiction' along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border so far?

War of occupation is bound to fail in today's environment...

It isn't just the 'environment', but the realities on the ground if the US were to deploy 'boots on the ground' in NW.

 

[karan.1970]

I mentioned that particular option in my post - the incessant 'drone strikes' in NW and FATA. The US is using its self declared 'extensive intelligence network on the ground and aerial surveillance through UAV's', so why have these 'HVT's' not already been taken out? Any part of the Haqqani leadership that is functioning in an 'operational capacity' is likely close to the 'action' in Afghanistan and FATA. The leadership in hiding elsewhere plays a largely 'ceremonial' role. Given the negligible impact on the TTP despite three sets of leaders (Nek Mohammed, Abdullah Mehsud, Baitullah Mehsud) being killed, I don't see reason to expect a significant impact on the Haqqani network from the killing of HVT's that are in hiding and not involved in operational activities to any significant degree to begin with.

I think its predominantly the sensitivities towards Pakistan's civilian govt and its precarious position that has been holding USA back in upping the ante in the game of unilaterally hitting at AT within Pakistan. With those sensitivities on the decline given recent comments from Pentagon (the staunchest ally of Pakistan in the US) and the state department, the drone warfare and spec ops may be escalated to a whole new level. No one's gonna do a carpet bombing approach or conquer and hold strategy in that terrain..

And what exactly has been stopping the US from doing 'continuous interdiction' along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border so far?

Because the source is not at the border but deep inside Pakistan's NW region. Its the Columbia story all over again. Till the time USA was attempting to just control it on the borders, it wasnt working.. Once they started hitting them on their home ground, things changed fast enough..

 

[Developereo]

It isn't just the 'environment', but the realities on the ground if the US were to deploy 'boots on the ground' in NW.

Global markets were down yet again today. The Australian stock market is at a 26-month low -- probably similar for other markets around the world.

The LAST thing anyone wants is more trouble in this region.

The White House knows this.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

I do think that the estimate of '200 civilian casualties' is bogus - here is why. The US pretty much has free reign in carrying out drones strikes in FATA, especially NW. It reportedly is now conducting these drone strikes independent of Pakistani support, through the intelligence network it has built up. So if the Haqqanis are so easily located in 'camps and safe havens in North Waziristan', why haven't US drone strikes taken them out yet? And if the US cannot spot them with almost non-stop aerial surveillance and its intelligence network on the ground, then what exactly will a ground based raid accomplish?

you nailed it there bro,
if I was an American taxpayer, I would have demanded the explanation and public inquiry from the head of the CIA who is conducting these drones strikes and explain why they have failed to locate these so called “Haqqanis” when their drones and low orbit satellites are constantly monitoring the tribal belt and north waziristan??

Where are they expending all their missiles if they haven’t been able to destroy any so called Haqani sanctuary or training camp?
I think if they stop attacking wedding and funerals and peace gatherings then there is a chance that they will find out these elusive “haqqanis” who seem to have some superior cloaking technology that defeats the American jobs worth’s monitoring the borders on either side of Pak –Afghan borders

 

[karan.1970]

Global markets were down yet again today. The Australian stock market is at a 26-month low -- probably similar for other markets around the world.

The LAST thing anyone wants is more trouble in this region.

The White House knows this.

Its very simple for the US to keep the situation just below the boiling point.. Its the old Soviet Salami tactics in a new avatar.. Starting with Increase in drone strikes to something like 2-3 a day. Then intersperse them with a spec op every week or a couple of AF incursions .. None of the increments large enough for Pakistan to declare a war or break off alliance etc..

 

[VCheng]

Global markets were down yet again today. The Australian stock market is at a 26-month low -- probably similar for other markets around the world.

The LAST thing anyone wants is more trouble in this region.

The White House knows this.

This region is a mere storm in a teacup compared to the great Euro vs Dollar game being played out. The White House knows this too.

 

[mr42O]

Pakistani leaders... leave like a dog and die like a dog. Or stand up against americans and say what all nation want u to tell them..... And see how magic works.

Also Pakistani if any connection to terrorist should be totaly banned....

 

[Developereo]

Its very simple for the US to keep the situation just below the boiling point.. Its the old Soviet Salami tactics in a new avatar.. Starting with Increase in drone strikes to something like 2-3 a day. Then intersperse them with a spec op every week or a couple of AF incursions .. None of the increments large enough for Pakistan to declare a war or break off alliance etc..

It's extremely unlikely that Pakistan would ever declare open war on the US, but an Iran-style proxy war is more likely if things get too out of hand.

It's not clear if the US administration is thinking two steps ahead. With all these very public accusations and the resulting media/public frenzy, they are limiting their own choice of actions.

 

[karan.1970]

It's extremely unlikely that Pakistan would ever declare open war on the US, but an Iran-style proxy war is more likely if things get too out of hand.

It's not clear if the US administration is thinking two steps ahead. With all these very public accusations and the resulting media/public frenzy, they are limiting their own choice of actions.

Probably they have come to the conclusion that no other choice exists.. I almost expect a military coup (backed by USA) any day in Pakistan now.. Dealing with a single man is always easier than with a democratic govt when you want to undertake unpopular actions in the country

 

[VCheng]

It's extremely unlikely that Pakistan would ever declare open war on the US, but an Iran-style proxy war is more likely if things get too out of hand.

It's not clear if the US administration is thinking two steps ahead. With all these very public accusations and the resulting media/public frenzy, they are limiting their own choice of actions.

Please consider that these public steps are leading towards a chosen set of actions, so the apparent limitations of choices may be intentional.

 

[LURKER]

It's extremely unlikely that Pakistan would ever declare open war on the US, but an Iran-style proxy war is more likely if things get too out of hand.

It's not clear if the US administration is thinking two steps ahead. With all these very public accusations and the resulting media/public frenzy, they are limiting their own choice of actions.

Iran has resources (OIL) to sustain its economy even when it is isolated by sanctions which pakistan does not have.

any iran style proxy war with US will result in iran style sanctions on pakistan which it cannot afford .

 

[Developereo]

This region is a mere storm in a teacup compared to the great Euro vs Dollar game being played out. The White House knows this too.

The Eurozone troubles are there and have been the driving force behing the markets' retreat. However, any major event in this region -- Palestine/Israel or Iraq -- will be the final straw to drive the markets over the cliff. Pakistan can learn from Iran and strike back at American targets in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran would be more than happy to oblige.

The world is looking at the US to lead the global economy out of recession and there's really no room for adventurism.

 

[VCheng]

The Eurozone troubles are there and have been the driving force behing the markets' retreat. However, any major event in this region -- Palestine/Israel or Iraq -- will be the final straw to drive the markets over the cliff. Pakistan can learn from Iran and strike back at American targets in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran would be more than happy to oblige.

The world is looking at the US to lead the global economy out of recession and there's really no room for adventurism.

The markets will not go over any cliff, please rest assured.

Pakistan needs to learn that its policy of state sponsored terrorism as a tool needs to change. Striking back at US targets will only invite the inevitable sooner rather than later if this policy does not change.

 

[Developereo]

Probably they have come to the conclusion that no other choice exists.. I almost expect a military coup (backed by USA) any day in Pakistan now.. Dealing with a single man is always easier than with a democratic govt when you want to undertake unpopular actions in the country

and

Please consider that these public steps are leading towards a chosen set of actions, so the apparent limitations of choices may be intentional.

Yes, it is possible that the public statements are intended as part of a PR campaign to prepare the public for the administration's plans. They have learnt the lessons of Iraq.

Or it could just be a measure of the desperation as Afghan withdrawal deadlines approach and there's not much to show after ten years of occupation.

Iran has resources (OIL) to sustain its economy even when it is isolated by sanctions which pakistan does not have.

any iran style proxy war with US will result in iran style sanctions on pakistan which it cannot afford .

Iran, Venezuela, Cuba. Countries find the strength to rise to challenges.

Pakistan has been like a beggar that has gotten addicted to the kindness of strangers. It's time to grow up.