The story of this incident (by the Australians) from 2012 is coming to light today. These are what CT operations could become if allowed to be conducted from Pakistan. Leading to blowback against Pakistan.
At the end of a 2012 SAS raid on an Afghanistan village, 13 people were dead. According to Australian and Afghan sources, most of them were unarmed civilians who were shot in cold blood, making it the single deadliest alleged war crime in the conflict.
www.abc.net.au
If the last 20 years have shown anything, it’s that these types of operations are bound to fail for a number of reasons, not the least of which is poor intelligence and covering up when a mistake has been made. Pakistan is risking its reputation and relations with each tribe should these types of incidents happen.
At some point the international community will have to accept whomever becomes the final government in Afghanistan, in order for it to have a realistic CT partner. A final Afghan government is the only entity (considering the risk of Afghan blowback) that can capture, try, and imprison anyone in their country themselves. They could also be the only ones to send a convicted person to their home country without facing blowback from their fellow countrymen. Remember a lot of foreigners have intermarried in the past few decades into Afghan tribes and now even their children are marrying other members of tribes. Attack these people would akin to going to war with that tribe. Only an accepted Afghan government could negotiate those tribal considerations. Looking at the Taliban now going through the tribal elders when seeking ANA surrenders proves this concept. Also, it would not be the Talibs interest to allow groups to knowingly operate in their territory, that they could not police.
For Pakistan, it should be focused on law and order within its borders. If the US wants to do anything, it should support building up Pakistani capacity to deal with suspects within our own borders. The engines for the T-129, selling transport helicopters, MRAPS, intelligence/sigint equipment, etc.. The US can also use its diplomatic leverage to prevent other countries from supporting groups in Pakistan, allowing Pakistani security forces to dedicate more resources towards other foreign miscreants.
Besides, according to Pompeo, AQ new home base is Iran. So no matter what is done in Afghanistan, it won’t effect AQ significantly. On the contrary, a sustainable Afghan government will be the only real CT partner, and as much as a bitter pill that will be to accept, it’s the only group that can effective do CT. Now some will ask what will the final Afghan government get out of sticking to a CT agreement, international recognition as the legitimate government as well as aid and trade to support social services (hospitals, schools, water, electricity, etc.) as they rebuild their war torn country.
For Pakistan to host bases would be to take over a 20 year failed war, siding with kabuli elites against the rural tribes, which is itself is a 300 year civil war that has never been resolved. Pakistan should stick to policing within its borders and EEZ, and not allow itself to get involved in other’s blunders.
