US CENTCOM adviser sees Pakistan in danger

[S-2]

"Ever heard of Zaid Hamid?"

Yes, something of a self-professed "expert" on security matters with some interestingly dubious perspectives. ISI had best hope he doesn't reflect their views. If so, they should lay off the scotch and sober up.

"Maybe I'm just jealous because I cannot dedicate the sort of time you do online."

Perhaps. OTOH, maybe you simply think and write considerably more slowly.

"From each according to his abilities to each according to their needs."

As your views are rarely required, so too your abilities. That's fortunate for you.

"Anyway about US plans for Baluchistan, well let's just leave all that and see what happens"

Ah...but that proves impossible for you, laddie.

"I too believe that China will not sit quietly since they've already paid for Gawadar."

Thanks for another anecdotal example of Pakistani "sovereignty".

(Staying more or less on topic.)

"I wonder how India still arms, trains and supplies BLA right under your noses in Afghanistan."

(Starting to drift...introduces India and BLA)

I do too. So much so that I openly question such and have an open S-2 challenge to provide the first incontrovertible photographic evidence that shows Indian officers training Baluchi nationalists from inside Afghanistan. A.M. has provided a blog alluding too an Indian brigadier attache paymaster. Beyond that?

The GoP has presented whatever case it believes to possess to two separate administrations. My government is evidently unimpressed, twice over. So much so that I've yet to read a comment by a senior official of either administration asserting that such a problem existed.

Have you checked with the Iranians? I've found interesting that the Iranians don't accuse India of supporting Baluchi separatists. Certainly there's no hue and cry that bespeaks a cause celebre' as with Pakistan. Do they not have their own baluchi insurgency? Do you presume the BLA only restricts it's movements and operations to Pakistan? That would seem a silly notion.

"My good friend...you would have solved most of the problems of this world by solving the Palestinian and Kashmir disputes by coercion one way or the other."

(Displays initial indications of a disturbed sensibility...a slight unhingement perhaps. Temperature clearly rising)

Somehow I imagine your zero-sum thinking would only work were we to leave a radioactive hole where both once stood. THAT would coercively resolve matters.

Short of that, somebody would always be left whining by how unfair it all was.

"No you had to go after Iraq lying to the world about their WMD's when even I knew that Iraq had none!"

(GONE...full blown rant. Terrible to see.)

You weren't on the White House's speed-dial, stud. It was never about WMD, though that was part of the demonstrated mix of volatility to his personal persona. It was simply that Saddam was in our way.

Bad guy with irridentist ambitions that interfere with American geo-strategic interests. The emperor signals...

With that...

Traumatic amputation was called for in a situation rapidly becoming gangrenous under the dubious effects of "sanctions" and "containment". Far better to exit stage right with that withered limb. So it was removed for the greater good.

"Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi's murdered savagely, millions displaced.....their blood and their sufferings are in your hands, you do have faith right?"

Brandt: Her life is in your hands.
The Dude: Man, don't say that, man.
Brandt: Mr. Lebowski asked me to repeat that: her life is in your hands.
The Dude: Oh, ****, man.
Brandt: Her life is in your hands, Dude.

"You people will be judged in this life or the after for your savagery!"



Always entertaining.

Thanks.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

provide the first incontrovertible photographic evidence that shows Indian officers training Baluchi nationalists from inside Afghanistan.

Why isn't the same standard applied to substantiate accusations that Pakistan is currently supporting the Taliban, or Indian accusations that Pakistan is supporting the LeT?

 

[S-2]

"Why isn't the same standard applied to substantiate accusations that Pakistan is currently supporting the Taliban, or Indian accusations that Pakistan is supporting the LeT?"

A.M. I don't know what standards are applied where it really matters-the various seats of government. I do know that two administrations of ours seem officially unfazed by whatever you've provided WRT the BLA and India operating within Afghanistan. What have the British suggested? They operate specifically in the south and have declared the BLA a terrorist organization, haven't they? How about the Canadians? Have you spoken with them? And their reaction?

OTOH, we engage well-armed and trained militants who attempt entry to Afghanistan daily from your lands. Isn't that alone adequate proof of, minimally, passive acquiescence if not active cooperation after seven years?

It says something to me that in the face of this active Indian aggression in your far west, the P.A. still doesn't move. That speaks volumes to the urgency of this matter. Were it so urgent, large numbers of forces would be streaming to western Baluchistan to stem this threat to your "Gwadar jewel". That doesn't seem the case at all, A.M.

Finally, I know this remains unaddressed but the GoA generally seems very happy with the GoI and the assistance they've provided. Has the GoP spoken to it's Afghani peers about this concern? If so, what was their reaction as that's important?

Were they sympathetic? I hope so.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

A.M. I don't know what standards are applied where it really matters-the various seats of government. I do know that two administrations of ours seem officially unfazed by whatever you've provided WRT the BLA and India within Afghanistan.

The Bush Administration certainly did not care - they were pretty much all speed ahead with forging a strategic relationship with India, no matter who they had to force to get India concessions, as we saw in the NSG deal.

OTOH, we engage well-armed and trained militants who attempt entry to Afghanistan daily from your lands. Isn't that alone adequate proof of, minimally, passive acquiescence if not active cooperation after seven years?

The only thing that suggests is that the PA has not been able to control the insurgent threat, for a variety of reasons that we have discussed several time elsewhere, not least of which is keeping at bay possible Indian aggression in the East.

It does not imply that the PA is actively training or supporting the Taliban.

Those brigades that were moved to the East after the Mumbai attacks were not on some sight seeing exercise - the moves were to address very real concerns.

It says something to me that in the face of this active Indian aggression in your far west, the P.A. still doesn't move. That speaks volumes to the urgency of this matter. Were it so urgent, large numbers of forces would be streaming to western Baluchistan to stem this threat to your "Gwadar jewel". That doesn't seem the case at all, A.M.

We have a significant number of FC deployed in Baluchistan - relocating significant military resources to combat the insurgency in Baluchistan leads to the same arguments against relocating significant resources to combat the insurgency in FATA - we leave our Easter flank unguarded.

Secondly, the insurgency in Baluchistan is not at the level of the insurgency in FATA - but it continues to take a toll in terms of perceptions of instability that prevent investment and prevent Baluchistan from being developed to its fullest potential.

Finally, I know this remains unaddressed but the GoA generally seems very happy with the GoI and the assistance they've provided. Has the GoP spoken to it's Afghani peers about this concern? If so, what was their reaction as that's important?

Were they sympathetic? I hope so.

I believe Musharraf's beef with Karzai was over this issue. The GoA's Intelligence chief is Ahmed Shah Massoud's former deputy Intelligence chief - Karzai has expressed irredentist sentiment in the past - the GoA has not shown any inclination to finalizing the Durand - what exactly do you expect form such a government except support for India?

I'll believe the GoA is 'sympathetic' and 'sincere' when they accept the sanctity of the Durand agreement. Till then they are merely biding their time to replicate that which prior Afghan governments have done.

 

[S-2]

"The Bush Administration certainly did not care - they were pretty much all speed ahead with forging a strategic relationship with India, no matter who they had to force to get India concessions, as we saw in the NSG deal."

I admire your sources. Evidently you know of the high and indisputable quality of the Pakistani presentation and our over-riding considerations. Nicely postured but an assumptive fallacy that doesn't accurately convey what was actually presented to my government.

I'm trying to be fair. If you wish to be assumptive, though, so can I.

"The only thing that suggests is that the PA has not been able to control the insurgent threat..."

"only thing" seems to trivialize a considerably painful reality for which those in another nation have suffered daily for some years. This is a considerable problem heading in the wrong direction.

"It does not imply that the PA is actively training or supporting the Taliban."

Nor does a taliban presence in Pakistan imply otherwise either. We've indications of cooperation. Our commanders along the border have noted some irregularities in operational conduct from time to time. We've even had a senior officer suggest that aerial resupply of a taliban force was provided by the Pakistani helicopter into Afghanistan. So anything is possible from our perspective-even now and despite Kiyani/Pasha's protestations to the contrary.

Your military's islamist momentum will not be immediately reversed...if reversed at all.

"Those brigades that were moved to the East after the Mumbai attacks were not on some sight seeing exercise"

Yes. There were "concerns" and "possible dangers". There always shall be, one suspects. Meanwhile, they continue to fight a real war elsewhere. Still, it's all about national priorities.

"We have a significant number of FC deployed in Baluchistan - relocating significant military resources to combat the insurgency in Baluchistan leads to the same arguments against relocating significant resources to combat the insurgency in FATA - we leave our Easter flank unguarded."

Well, if FATAville can't move you, there's little cause to think a minor matter like the BLA would ruffle any feathers in Rawalpindi...and it hasn't. Nor elsewhere either.

"We have a significant number of FC deployed in Baluchistan..."

And even more in FATAville. They'll hopefully prove equal to the task. Doesn't look like they should expect help from the army.

"Secondly, the insurgency in Baluchistan is not at the level of the insurgency in FATA - but it continues to take a toll in terms of perceptions of instability that prevent investment and prevent Baluchistan from being developed to its fullest potential."

A.M., Baluchistan is not headline news on the NYT or WAPO. FATAville is. You've got an image problem, alright, but Baluchistan is small potatoes to your real perception issue.

"the GoA has not shown any inclination to finalizing the Durand..."

Is this an issue in Baluchistan as in Pashtunistan? The taliban government hasn't either. Have the made any announcements regarding this from Quetta which might encourage the GoP?

Many Afghani tajiks, uzbeks, turkomen, and Hazaris would naturally like to point the Pashtu towards their natural homelands further eastward and cease the encroachment into Baluchi and their lands. They fear themselves next, and so too many of their CAR cousins.

It's an understandable concern that must be weighed heavily. A go-slow approach would seem best on this matter.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

We've even had a senior officer suggest that aerial resupply of a taliban force was provided by the Pakistani helicopter into Afghanistan.

And that is pretty much the only thing we have heard on that particular far fetched tale.

On the other hand, we have a former Pakistani COAS and President categorically confirming that Indian officials were supporting the Baluch insurgency, and having documentary evidence to support it. His claims are largely the same as those reported in the meeting between Pakistani and US military officials in the press.

We've indications of cooperation.

You have 'indications'? You were demanding a fair bit more than that for validating Pakistani accusations. We have plenty of 'indications' as well, presented frequently, but then you want photographic evidence.

Is this an issue in Baluchistan as in Pashtunistan? The taliban government hasn't either. Have the made any announcements regarding this from Quetta which might encourage the GoP?

What exactly is 'Pashtunistan'?

Afghan irredentism has varied between a Greater Afghanistan inclusive of Baluchistan and one only inclusive of the Pakistani Pashtun areas. The Taliban government was not/is close to the Indians either - the GoA is, as were the previous GoA that supported terrorism and separatism in Pakistan.

There is a historical precedent for concern arising out of an unfriendly GoA and India nexus.

Many Afghani tajiks, uzbeks, turkomen, and Hazaris would naturally like to point the Pashtu towards their natural homelands further eastward and cease the encroachment into Baluchi and their lands. They fear themselves next, and so too many of their CAR cousins.

It's an understandable concern that must be weighed heavily. A go-slow approach would seem best on this matter.

I am not sure what the concerns of other ethnicities in Afghanistan have to do with not finalizing the Durand sooner rather than later - if anythign, an expanded Afghanistan with a Pashtun majority instead of plurality would pose a larger demographic concern than one restricted to its current borders.

Nor did such concerns prevent Afghan irredentism and interference in Pakistan in the past under non-Taliban regimes.

 

[dabong1]

The Pakistani state could collapse within six months if immediate steps are not taken to remedy the situation, warned a top adviser to the US Central Command.

i thinks he means all the pro western puppets that the US pays in pakistan could be neutralized in 6 months and US leverage could collapse.

 

[dabong1]

S-2.... we are playing you idiots.......7 years on and your getting deeper and deeper into the swamp and its all slipping away from you.
You cant do a damn thing about about it,did you really think we would trust the US

Send more of you crappy army over to get killed by the taliban.

 

[Task Force Black]

March 2009 - Week 4, 160 kilometers from Pakistans capital.









The situation can probably be best termed as, "heavily pregnant".

The good Doctor's words are certainly interesting, and no doubt timely.

 

[sherdil76]

btw the title of this thread should have been based on facts like..

US CENTCOM advisers want to see Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers made Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers have achieved their goal of putting Pakistan in danger

as thats the only evil reason they have to stay in this region, we all know how many chemical and nukes they found in Iraq, where they ruined and looted everything...

but trust me my dear Americans this will be completely different story though you are using world's latest technology but ordering more bodybags...

your own soldiers in converting to Islam even those who worked in notorious and illegal guantanamo... and after making so much fuss in whole world you simply unable to control the rate the Islam is spreading with, you trust me you never will... try even your nukes...

 

[Task Force Black]

btw the title of this thread should have been based on facts like..

US CENTCOM advisers want to see Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers made Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers have achieved their goal of putting Pakistan in danger

as thats the only evil reason they have to stay in this region, we all know how many chemical and nukes they found in Iraq, where they ruined and looted everything...

but trust me my dear Americans this will be completely different story though you are using world's latest technology but ordering more bodybags...

your own soldiers in converting to Islam even those who worked in notorious and illegal guantanamo... and after making so much fuss in whole world you simply unable to control the rate the Islam is spreading with, you trust me you never will... try even your nukes...

What all of them? OK, I'll take a note of it and pass it through the channels, but I can assure you that the simulations have already been run and Islam would have just as tough a time as everyone else if that came to pass. Perhaps more so, as you've essentially just advocated the collapse of one of the pillars of Islam after all.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

btw the title of this thread should have been based on facts like..

US CENTCOM advisers want to see Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers made Pakistan in danger or
US CENTCOM advisers have achieved their goal of putting Pakistan in danger

as thats the only evil reason they have to stay in this region, we all know how many chemical and nukes they found in Iraq, where they ruined and looted everything...

but trust me my dear Americans this will be completely different story though you are using world's latest technology but ordering more bodybags...

your own soldiers in converting to Islam even those who worked in notorious and illegal guantanamo... and after making so much fuss in whole world you simply unable to control the rate the Islam is spreading with, you trust me you never will... try even your nukes...

Stick to the topic please - what purpose did this rant serve? How is it in any way an analytical or constructive comment?

Fell free to criticize the CENTCOM advisor's views, but do so with you own facts and analysis, not this gibberish please, regardless of how 'angry' it makes you.

You lot need to cut down on these 'emotional outbursts' - the forum is full of them and we'll start handing out infractions and bans if things don't straighten up.

 

[arsenal_gooner]

suprise suprise and guess whats going to happen in afghanistan in a few months

elections

why is it the united states ramp the pressure up when theres an election round the corner hmmm

 

[Task Force Black]

suprise suprise and guess whats going to happen in afghanistan in a few months

elections

why is it the united states ramp the pressure up when theres an election round the corner hmmm

Elections by their very nature are moments of pure pressure, granted.

None the less, I highly doubt that the good Doctor had that issue at the forefront of his mind when he gave the above interview.

 

[S-2]

TFB,

"None the less, I highly doubt that the good Doctor had that issue at the forefront of his mind when he gave the above interview."

I don't know who, what, or where you are but you read as though a military man. It's part of Kilcullen's calculus, I imagine. Good, bad, or indifferent, we're committed to pulling those off again and, hopefully, to even expand the mandate.

That remains a lesser objective compared to overlaying population densities with incidents of violence and opium. We have an intersection of two (densities and violence) in the Kabul-Jalalabad corridor and eminating outward in all directions some distance. Still, a clear loci.

We've a TRIANGULATION of pop. densities, violent incidents, and opium when looking at the green zones of Kandahar and Helmand-particularly Helmand. A surprisingly large pct. of the afghan population squeezed between Lashkar Gar and Kandahar north to Tarin Kowt. Helmand, Kandahar, and Oruzgan, IIRC, account for 126,000 of a 159,000 nat'l total of planted hectares of dope.

That's where the troops will be. I've already reported the entry of Royal Marine Commandos and ANA forces into an heretofore untouched area of Helmand as a reconnaissance-in-force.

More is to follow.