Speaking about the Horn of Africa.
The Land of Six Armies: Djibouti and the the Horn of Africa
By
Perry Arrasmith | October 19, 2017
Djiboutian Army members march during the Djiboutian Armed Forces’ 38th anniversary celebration, June 2015.
It’s really nothing impressive at first glance. On paper, the tiny African nation boasts a population less than 900,000 people. The name it carries, “Djibouti,” is derived from the nation’s capital and only major population center. However, the small country’s strength lies in its position on the
Bab el-Mandeb strait, through which at least 4.8 million barrels of oil and refined petroleum travels daily.
Situated at a strategic point between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, this tiny African nation has become an alluring destination for military powers throughout the world. Motivated by a variety of considerations, regional and global powers are now establishing a military presence in Djibouti, but the motives underpinning each nation remain largely divergent. Through their various levels of military involvement in Djibouti, each power invested in the country is revealing their hopes for the future of the region–and their place in that future.
The Horn of Africa: An Unlikely Oasis in the Midst of Chaos
Now independent for 40 years, the small republic of Djibouti continues to operate as a
one-party state. Since gaining independence from France in 1977, the country has had only two presidents and continues to
welcome assistance from its former colonial administrator.
When compared to its neighbors, however, Djibouti seems a pragmatic model of efficiency and security in the Horn of Africa. To Djibouti’s north, Eritrea competes with North Korea in its disregard for political and civil rights, with an estimated 5,000 people
fleeing the country every month. As Habtom Yohannes, a researcher with the African Studies Centre at Leiden University, told the HPR, “Eritrea lacks a parliament, rule of law, an independent judicial system, a free press, limits on the practice of religion, and enforces terms of forced military conscription which span decades.”
Beyond its record of governance, Eritrea’s history of conflict with neighboring Ethiopia means that any nation looking to establish a base there will have to deal with these tense relations. “The state of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has come as a sort of blessing for Djibouti,” Yohannes explained. “The tension between these two countries—and the need among some nations for a connection to Ethiopia—has left Djibouti as the only other alternative for most powers looking for a road into the continent.”
Djibouti’s southern neighbor finds a way to fare worse; the internationally recognized Democratic Republic of Somalia in the south struggles against terrorist organizations like Al Shabaab to extend its sovereignty beyond the capital of Mogadishu, while the comparatively stable but
unrecognized Republic of Somaliland remains ignored by the international community. Moreover,
famine throughout Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya has forced thousands to flee to the country, with
one estimate placing the amount of refugees from both Ethiopia and Somalia at over 25,000.
For foreign powers seeking to establish bases in the region, the lack of a better alternative has made Djibouti the destination of choice.
A Colonial Legacy and America’s War on Terror
After September 11, 2001, U.S. interest in the Horn of Africa grew as the need for a base from which to
conduct surveillance throughout Africa emerged. An
earlier American base had existed during the Cold War in neighboring Ethiopian-occupied Eritrea, but the base was shut down in 1977 as the country descended into anarchy following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie. Consequently, when France turned its military base in Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier, over to the local government in
2001, the United States was quick to move in.
The American mission in Djibouti, known
officially as the “Joint Action Task Force–Horn of Africa,” has focused on conducting counterterrorism and intelligence-gathering operations throughout the continent. As a counter to
Islamic extremism, American forces often train with African militaries.
“America’s presence in the region has aided governments such as Somalia and Kenya in dealing with Al Shabaab,” Alex Awiti, the Director of the East Africa Institute at Aga Khan University, told the HPR. “With Al Shabaab continuing to control parts of Somalia and harass neighboring Kenya, America shows no signs of ending their cooperation in dealing with these terrorist organizations.”
Beyond counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa, the United States’ efforts in the Middle East also rely on Djibouti as a base from which to launch drone missions. From Afghanistan to Iraq to Yemen, drone strikes continue to be
directed from the confines of America’s base in Djibouti. As of now, America’s policy shows no signs of changing. Defense Secretary John Mattis’ recent
visit to Djibouti demonstrates how important the base is to U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
The Rising Giant
While the United States has conducted military operations from Djibouti for more than a decade, China’s recent decision to open its first military base on foreign soil arose from a desire to increase economic engagement with emerging markets throughout the Horn of Africa. Professor Peter Dutton, Director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College, told the HPR that “while the base’s establishment rose out of opportunistic circumstances, China’s increasing economic interests in the region made it natural for a military presence to follow in response.”
China’s decision to
fund the construction of an unparalleled $4 Billion, 470 mile rail line from Abbis Ababa (the capital of Ethiopia) to Djibouti City is emblematic of its efforts to develop stronger political and economic ties in the region. “With more than 250 million people located throughout the Horn of Africa––over 350 million when Egypt is included—there is a substantial market for Chinese businesses to expand internationally,” Dutton explained. “In countries like Ethiopia, abundantly cheap energy sources, economic incentives, and an ample labor force all provide major reasons for certain manufacturers to set up centers in the region.”
The
development of ‘Special Economic Zones’ in Ethiopia is another facet of China’s efforts in the region. These attempts, however, do not parallel the policies of economic exploitation overseen by European colonists a century earlier. As Dutton observed, “China is always looking for ways to make African governments and businesses true partners in their efforts. The Horn of Africa is a staging ground for China’s aspirations for economic development throughout the continent.”
Japan’s move into Djibouti came as a “
response” to China’s mushrooming interest in the continent. After carving out a place on America’s base in the country, the Japanese military— formally the Self-Defence Force—opened its first military base abroad in Djibouti in
2011. Since then, Japan has continued to look for
opportunities to exert strength in the region. Last year, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada
visited the “Japan Self-Defense Force Base Djibouti” in a move to emphasize the importance of the base in regional efforts such as the fight against piracy—and Japan’s global effort to assert military strength.
While the United States welcomes Japan’s involvement in Djibouti, China’s new naval base has
worried U.S. officials. China’s new naval base is
located only a few miles away from the U.S. base at Lemonnier, which has made U.S. officials
nervous about the power’s future in the region. President Xi Jinping’s
displays of military might demonstrate how determined the Chinese government is to display its new international clout. A Chinese base in East Africa may signal China’s desire to insert global influence beyond the confines of East Asia. “For now,” Professor said, “it’s something to keep an eye on.”
Famines and Proxy Wars: The Present Chaos
Besides its role in Great Power politics, Djibouti’s strategic significance has expanded due to the Yemeni civil war being waged less than a hundred miles from its coast. In addition, regional tensions have forced Djibouti to ally with powerful neighbors for their own political needs. The civil war has directly affected Djibouti’s security; at least 35,000 Yemenis have
fled across the Bab el-Mandeb strait as of July 2016. In April 2017, Saudi Arabia
concluded a deal with Djibouti over increased defense ties with Djibouti. Amidst this refugee crisis, the decision to house Saudi forces raises the stakes for how Djibouti chooses to position itself on the chessboard of Middle Eastern politics.
Qatar’s recent
tensions with a Saudi Arabian bloc of Middle Eastern countries led Qatar to
remove their peacekeeping troops from the border between Eritrea and Djibouti, where clashes have kept the two countries on edge with one another since 2008. Djibouti’s decision to increase diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia played a role in
damaging relations with long-time ally Qatar. Long recognized for their ‘
regional ambitions,’ Qatar’s departure from the region produced a geopolitical power vacuum. With Qatar’s exit, China has now
offered to mediate the conflict by sending military peacekeepers.
Navigating Regional and Global Interests
International interest in Djibouti is unlikely to remain confined to the nations highlighted in this article. If anything, perhaps Djibouti’s increased importance is emblematic of the Horn of Africa’s growing role on the world stage. “It would not be a surprise to me if India eventually opens a base in Djibouti,” Awiti told the HPR. “Their economic rise parallels that of China, and their status as China’s counterpart in Asia may expand to a competition for markets in Africa.”
As a staging ground for international militaries, Djibouti poses a challenge for governments looking to both keep the peace and pursue their national interests. As Awiti told the HPR, “If you want a way into the continent, you need a way to protect your interests. Relations are always very delicate among major powers when put in such a small space. However, each power will hold what they own as long as they can cooperate with one another.”
Image source: CJTF-HOA/Senior Airman Nesha Humes
Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly identified Habtom Yohannes as Dr. Abraham Yohannes. It has been updated to correct this mistake and further describe his relationship with the African Studies Centre at Leiden University.
http://harvardpolitics.com/world/the-land-of-six-armies-djibouti-and-the-the-horn-of-africa/
Why China and Saudi Arabia Are Building Bases in Djibouti
China and Saudi Arabia are building military bases next door to US AFRICOM in Djibouti—and bringing the consequences of American withdrawal from the region into stark relief.
by
Joseph Braude and
Tyler Jiang
Djibouti, a resource-poor nation of 14,300 square miles and 875,000 people in the Horn of Africa, rarely makes international headlines. But between its relative stability and strategic location—20 miles across from war-consumed Yemen and in destroyer range of the pirate-infested western edge of the Indian Ocean—it is now one of the more important security beachheads in the develo
http://www.amazon.com/Joseph-Braude/e/B001KDV64Kping world. Its location also matters greatly to global commerce and energy, due to its vicinity to the Mandeb Strait and the Suez-Aden canal, which sees ten percent of the world’s oil exports and 20 percent of its commercial exports annually.
[1] Since November 2002, the country has been home to Camp Lemonnier, a U.S. Expeditionary base—the only American base on the African continent—along with other bases belonging to its French, Italian, Spanish, and Japanese allies. (The United States maintains numerous small outposts and airfields in Africa, but officially regards Lemonnier as its only full-scale military base on the continent.)
But now there are two new kids on the block: On January 21st, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry announced an agreement with Djibouti to host its first-ever base beyond the South China Sea, and construction commenced days later.
[2] Though Beijing called the installation a “logistics and fast evacuation base,” the Asian power’s “near-abroad” rivals, such as Taiwan, opined that it is more likely the beginning of a new, aggressive military buildup to rival the United States. Six weeks later, Saudi Arabia declared that it too would construct a base in Djibouti,
[3] apparently as part of its newly assertive policy of countering Iranian proxies politically and militarily throughout the region.
[4]
Both new players have made substantial economic and soft power investments in the country to boot. Since 2015, Beijing has poured over $14 billion into infrastructure development.
[5] Saudi Arabia, itself a prominent donor to Djibouti’s public works, has spent generously on social welfare projects for the country’s poor; built housing, schools and mosques for its swelling Yemeni refugee population; and dispatched teachers and preachers from the World Assembly of Muslim Youth, long a pillar for the promulgation of Saudi-backed interpretations of Islam. Augmenting Saudi aid, moreover, has been further spending by some of its Arab military allies. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have poured millions into charitable work over the past few months—and the UAE in particular is working to spur economic development along the lines of the “Dubai model.” Even cash-poor North Sudan, newly returned to the Saudi orbit after a years-long alliance with Iran, began construction of a hospital in Djibouti in early February.
Neither the timing nor the confluence of these projects is mere coincidence. America’s diminishing global military footprint has begun to affect the calculation of allies and rivals alike, and the outsized role Djibouti is poised to play in its neighborhood presents a case in point of the consequences. An examination of the changing role the country plays in American, Chinese, and Arab security policy offers a glimpse into potential conflicts as well as opportunities arising from the shift—and some steps Americans can take to prepare for both.
The American Posture
As the only American base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier serves a vital function for US AFRICOM. Housing 4,000 military and civilian personnel, it is the nerve center of six drone launching stations across the continent, which have attacked targets as far-flung as Al-Shabab in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and Yemeni-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. U.S. Special Forces, the CIA, and Air Force surveillance craft converge to process and pool intelligence at the camp. It also serves as headquarters to Task Force 48-4, a counterterrorism unit that targets militants in East Africa and Yemen.
[6] Special Forces rely on it too: In 2012, when Navy SEALs rescued American and Danish hostages from Somalia, they brought them to safety in Camp Lemonnier.
[7] And as a springboard for American-led anti-piracy operations, Camp Lemonnier helps the U.S. maintain its role as the primary guarantor of mercantile security in the Gulf of Aden, the Horn of Africa, and the Indian Ocean. The significance of the base grows only greater amid regional conflagration: The U.S. has been using it to meet its pledge of technical and intelligence assistance to Saudi Arabia in its war against the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen.
In 2014, the U.S. signed a new 20-year lease on the base with the Djiboutian government, and committed over $1.4 billion to modernize it in the years to come.
[8] This significant expenditure bucks the overall trend of diminishing American military commitments overseas. For example, President Obama has announced plans to reduce the number of active naval vessels to 1917 numbers, possibly including aircraft carriers.
[9]
As the segments below will show, America’s status in the country stands to be affected by the activities of the Chinese and Saudi bases. It may also be affected by the two countries’ soft power deployments, each aiming to influence the cultural and political fiber of the country and, by extension, the policies of its government. America’s own soft power commitments have been minimal: the U.S. supplies $3 million worth of food aid annually through USAID as part of the U.N. World Food Program, runs modest health and education projects, and netted only $152 million in trade in 2015.
[10] Nor is there any concerted effort to enter the public discussion in Djibouti in the service of American goals or values.
The Chinese Posture
By contrast to the U.S., China has never previously established a base beyond its “near abroad.” Thus the Djibouti project, however modest, fuels the perception that China’s military footprint is growing. Sending such a message may itself be among Beijing’s goals. David Shedd, former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told us that “[The Chinese] want to signal to the world that they have a worldwide presence. Part of the mission is simply defined as being seen. That in and of itself is defined as an interest.”
[11]
With respect to its potential operational significance, the Chinese Foreign Ministry says, “Facilities will mainly be used for logistical support and personnel recuperation of the Chinese armed forces conducting such missions as maritime escort in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the Somali coast, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance.” It would also enable fast evacuation for any of the million Chinese citizens now living in the Middle East and Africa should they require it.
[12] The need to prepare for such eventualities became clear to China in the bloody aftermath of the Arab Spring: It evacuated 35,680 nationals employed mainly in Libya’s oil industry, and 629 more from Yemen soon thereafter.
[13] During the Libya evacuation, China had only one frigate available in the vicinity, so most of the evacuees had to be flown out of the country on chartered commercial planes.
But from Washington to Taipei, observers suspect that the project is more ambitious than the Chinese let on. In an interview on the national news network
Taiwan Today, political analyst Lai Yueqian said, “[The base] can be used to pin down the United States and any U.S.-led organizations, and if [the U.S.] wants to intervene against China’s interests, they will have to think carefully, because China will use their military to protect their citizens and their property.”
[14] In the following clip, Yueqian elaborates on this analysis, bespeaking Taiwanese concerns about the base:
Yueqian’s assessment, shared by most Chinese “near-abroad” allies of the United States, is also the view of prominent members of the political class in Washington. At a December hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs in which rumors about the base were discussed, Senator Chris Coons (R-De.) stated in relation to the Djibouti base, “[The US has to be] vigilant in the face of China’s growing ambitions.”
[15]
Beijing’s outlook toward nearby North Africa and the Middle East differs with American policies. As Taiwan’s Lai Yueqian described in the video above, the U.S.- and NATO-led military intervention in Libya angered China. At the U.N. Security Council, Beijing subsequently blocked attempts to engineer a Western military intervention in Syria. With respect to the region-wide conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, America’s tradition of siding with Saudi Arabia — or, for that matter, its more recent tendency to tilt toward Iran — may conflict with Chinese policies: Guided by the need to quench its substantial thirst for oil, Beijing mostly seeks to avoid irking either oil-rich nation. A new military base in boating range of North Africa as well as the Arabian peninsula promises to bolster any Chinese political stance—however modestly—with a measure of force. The base, to be located near the small port city of Obock on the northern coast of Djibouti, lies 20 miles closer than Lemonnier to the conflict in Yemen, to which Washington has committed resources in support of Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis.
But China’s strategic goals cannot be explained solely in terms of a perceived reaction to Western policies. According to Beijing’s most recent defense policy paper, released in May 2015
, “China’s armed forces will work harder to create a favorable strategic posture with more emphasis on the employment of military forces and means.”
[16] This formulation is widely believed to allude to China’s “String of Pearls” and “One Belt, One Road” initiatives. “String of Pearls” is a metaphor for an envisioned network of naval ports of call, predominantly along the Indian Ocean, to secure sea lanes of transit, commerce, and communication from mainland China to Sudan. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative seeks to strengthen Chinese exports through commercial land and sea roads, largely along the historic “silk road,” straddling Europe and the Middle East. The Djibouti base would be vital in ensuring the success of the latter goal, since most of China’s $1 billion in daily exports to Europe traverse the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal.
[17] With respect to the former plan, Toshi Yoshihara, Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies at the U.S. Naval War College, has been mapping the intersection of Chinese naval and commercial ventures across the Pacific region. Arrayed together, he told us, they “certainly do look like a string of pearls.”
[18] Djibouti, home to both the nascent base and extensive Chinese economic investment, would clearly amount to a new pearl on the string (see Figure 1).
[19]
Are Chinese and American pursuits in the vicinity of Djibouti necessarily a zero-sum game? Some of China’s stated goals do not conflict with American aspirations, and to the contrary, may benefit both superpowers as well as their allies: Both the growing Chinese capacity to evacuate citizens from war-torn areas and its further enhancement of anti-piracy operations are each a “public good.” On the other hand, a different term in Beijing’s political vocabulary raises more disturbing possibilities. In our conversation with FPRI Senior Fellow June Teufel Dreyer, she stressed the principle of “All Under Heaven”—rooted in Chinese imperial history—which places Chinese central authority at the epicenter of a tributary system of dominance over lesser powers. Some analysts of China see the country’s recent installation of surface-to-air missiles and fighter jets on Woody Island in the South China Sea as a manifestation of this supremacist tendency.
[20] One might ask whether the construction of a Djibouti base reflects the extension of “All Under Heaven” beyond China’s traditional orbit.
At a time of rapid Chinese construction of aircraft and aircraft carriers and more serious competition with American military industries, the base in Djibouti could indeed reflect a Chinese aspiration to eventually meet and surpass the United States as a military and economic power in the area. In January 2016, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a 72-hour exercise involving thousands of marines and the navy special operations regiment in the Gobi Desert in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. The area’s topography and climate resemble much of North Africa and the Sahel.
[21] Between “All Under Heaven” and China’s stated goal of housing up to 10,000 Chinese servicemen in Djibouti, such exercises offer ample basis for concern.
[22]
Beijing’s hard power initiative in Djibouti is meanwhile accompanied by its soft power initiatives to build ties with state and society alike. The $14 billion in Chinese support for infrastructure development, widely publicized in Djibouti, has generated enormous goodwill with the population. Far exceeding U.S. spending, the injection is also an investment in the government of President Isma’il Omar Guelleh. There are also cultural ventures, such as the new Confucius Institute in Djibouti City, which Beijing typically uses to cultivate personal ties and “assets” within the society.
[23] Add to all this China’s $1.1 billion in trade in 2014—roughly ten times that of the United States.
[24] As Chinese influence grows in Djibouti, its ability to influence the government’s foreign policy and security strategies promises to grow along with it.
The Saudi Posture
From a Saudi perspective, stationing troops in Djibouti is both a defensive and a potential offensive measure in its pan-regional conflict with Iran, with particular bearing on the nearby war in Yemen. The defensive aspect was on display in mid-February, when Saudi intelligence officials, tracking the flow of munitions from Iran to its Houthi proxy militia in Yemen, discovered that the Islamic Republic was using Djibouti as a waystation. A ship en route to Yemen carrying encrypted military communication equipment and other hardware had originated in the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The Kingdom intercepted it en route, and recognized the importance of strengthening its capacity to act in and around Djibouti.
[25] In terms of “offense,” Ben Ho Wan Beng, a military analyst in Singapore, speculates that given the Houthi presence in western Yemen, Riyadh could use the base to “open up a new front against the Houthis, who [would] then face the prospect of being attacked from another axis.”
[26]
By contrast to the U.S. and its Japanese and Western allies, for which the establishment of a base in Djibouti is a matter of paying rent on a discrete strip of land, Saudis view their own barrack walls as permeable. Djibouti is an Arab League member state, bound to its brethren by ties of blood, culture, and faith. It has also joined the 34-member, Saudi-led “Islamic coalition” against Iran-sponsored terror announced by Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in December.
[27] Thus from Riyadh’s perspective,
all of Djibouti is a kind of “base”—and the Kingdom feels it has a right to weigh in on any of the country’s non-Arab military installations. It was hardly a coincidence when the Djiboutian government recently rejected a Russian proposal to establish its own base in the country: Moscow, a staunch ally to the Iran-backed Assad regime in Damascus, would have been at best unhelpful to Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war.
Saudi soft power activity in the country serves to intensify this bond. One of the state-backed organizations spearheading it is the Riyadh-based World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY). The group historically served as a primary exporter of Islamist preaching across the globe—a mission that enabled both Salafi jihadists and the Muslim Brotherhood to politicize and radicalize Muslim communities. But the Kingdom more recently purged the organization of jihadist preachers, and streamlined WAMY’s religious line to follow “Salafi traditionalism,” which holds that only the head of state has the right to declare “jihad.” Moreover, clerical elites who traditionally controlled the group now share authority with stalwarts of the government—call them “lay leaders”—who have their own direct line to the royal family. In Djibouti, WAMY funds and staffs health and human services for the indigenous population, and tends to the needs of Yemeni refugees. Other goals determined by the state appear to take precedence over preaching: provide disaster and poverty relief; back the government of President Isma’il Omar Guelleh; instill an ethos of Djiboutian nationalism that insulates the population from trans-state ideologies; build person-to-person relationships between Saudis and Djiboutians; engineer support for the Kingdom’s specific regional objectives. Some of these goals are subtly on display in the following excerpt from a March 21, 2016 report by WAMY on its Djibouti bureau:
To be sure, the positive aspects of WAMY’s programs should not diminish the concern that Salafi missionary activity may still promote a profoundly sectarian worldview in Djibouti, casting the Sunni-Shi’ite conflict in existential, rather than political, terms.
As to the presence of 30,000-and-counting Yemeni refugees in Djibouti, Saudis view it as both a humanitarian concern and a strategic opportunity. Twenty-five years ago, in the aftermath of the “Gulf War” to repel Saddam Hussein’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia established a refugee camp in the northern town of Rafha to host 33,000 Iraqis fleeing persecution by Saddam. The installation served Riyadh and some of its international allies as an intelligence listening post—hundreds of Iraqis were debriefed about the situation inside the country—and as a platform for cultivating Iraqi assets.
[28]Though the Yemeni and gulf wars are far from analogous, the presence of a substantial number of newly departed Yemeni civilians in a safe environment far from the battlefield presents the opportunity to tap a similar wealth of information and human networks.
In deepening their security and intelligence presence in Djibouti at a time of unease between Riyadh and Washington, they will be keen to explore potential security partnerships with China. As recently as 2014, Beijing sought to forge joint counterterrorism training programs with the Yemeni government that Saudi Arabia is now fighting to reinstall.
[29] More recently, Beijing made a rare break with its policy of neutrality between Iran and Saudi Arabia to express support for the Saudi position in Yemen. In January 2016, King Salman hosted a landmark visit to Riyadh by Chinese President Xi Jinping, together with high-level meetings between senior security and intelligence officials of both countries. The strengthening of these ties may serve to lessen Saudi reliance on American support.
[30]
The importance of Djibouti has become a popular topic of discussion throughout the Saudi-allied Arab world. Prominent voices in Egypt, for example, are talking about building a base there too, while other Gulf allies are ramping up their own soft power projects in the country. The following video montage begins with a clip from Tawfiq Okasha—an eccentric, ultranationalist Egyptian pundit known for his fondness of Israel—in which he makes the case for a Djibouti base. In perhaps a sign of the times, he bolsters his argument by saying that Djiboutians are one of the lost tribes of Israel, and therefore “good people.”
@Gomig-21 our friend in action.
Grappling with New U.S. Challenges
In a February letter to Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, Representatives Dana Rohrabacher (R-Ca.), Chris Smith (R-N.J.), and Duncan Hunter (R-Ca.) raised alarms about China’s rising influence in Djibouti: “[We are] worried that our own strategic interests around the Horn of Africa, specifically our critical counter-terrorism operations, will be impacted by China’s growing strategic influence in the region.” Recognizing Beijing’s soft power gains, they castigated the Djibouti leadership for its “cozy relationship with China,” and dubbed the government of Ismail Omar Guelleh a “corrupt and repressive regime.” Guelleh is indeed a human rights violator, and the lawmakers’ criticism have been echoed repeatedly by the White House in recent months. Doing so has of course done little to improve Washington’s relationship with Guelleh: Judging from the angry reaction in Djiboutian state media, he reads the American denunciations as support for his political opponents. When Djibouti holds its presidential elections on April 8, the incumbent’s likely victory will bring the government another step closer to China—and a step away from the United States.
America’s shifting circumstances in Djibouti—and, by extension, the Horn of Africa and southern Arabia—are a symptom of its broader political and military withdrawal from conflicts in which longtime Asian and Arab allies have a stake. The situation also reflects the weakness of Washington’s commitment and capacity to wield soft power in politically contested foreign environments. It will ultimately be difficult for Washington to address the concerns about Djibouti raised by American lawmakers and Taiwanese analyst Lai Yueqian without restoring its support for longtime allies in the Middle and Far East, as well as deploying American soft power alongside military might. To be sure, the U.S. should welcome efforts by China to help protect civilians from the region’s tumult and secure the sea lanes for international trade. But it should also be prepared for a formidable new presence in the area capable of challenging American objectives politically and militarily.
Meanwhile, the growing presence of Saudi Arabia alongside China in the country promises to strengthen security ties between Riyadh and Beijing, potentially at Washington’s expense. It is but one example of the increasing interplay between China and the Arab world, for which it behooves Americans to prepare. A first step toward doing so is to address an American gap in studying the phenomenon. From government to think tanks and the academy, Arab affairs
specialists have long been institutionally separated from their counterparts in Asian affairs. As the leaders, peoples, and armies of these diverse environments begin to intermingle, the Americans who study and engage them must do the same.
Joseph Braude and Tyler Jiang originally published this article as an E-Note at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
[1] Ben Ho Wan Beng, “The Strategic Attractions of Djibouti,”
The National Interest, March 18, 2016.
[2] Hong Lei, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on January 21, 2016,” January 21, 2016.
[3] Habib Toumi, “Saudi Arabia ‘to open military base in Djibouti’ Djibouti keen to expand ties and cooperation with Saudi Arabia,”
Gulf News Saudi Arabia, March 8, 2016.
[4] Hasan al-Mustafa, “Al-Diblomasiya al-Sa’udiya Tub’id Iran ‘An al-Qarn al-Ifriqi” (Saudi Diplomacy Ejects Iran from the Horn of Africa).
Al-Arabiya, October 21, 2015.
[5] Dana Sanchez, “China Financing Most of Djibouti’s $14.4 Billion In Planned Infrastructure Projects,”
AFK Insider, June 11, 2010.
[6] Nick Turse, “The US military’s best-kept secret,”
The Nation, November 17, 2015.
[7] BBC News, “Somalia: Western Hostages Freed in US Military Raid.”
BBC News, January 25, 2012.
[8] Josh Wood, “Djibouti, a Safe Harbour in the Troubled Horn of Africa,”
The National, June 2, 2015.
[9] Colin Hanna and J.D. Gordon, “Obama naval Doctrine: Anchors Away?”
The Hill, March 3, 2014.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/199570-obama-naval-doctrine-anchors-away
[10] United States Census Bureau, “Trade in Goods with Djibouti,” accessed 3/27/2016. USAID, “Food Assistance Fact Sheet – Djibouti,” accessed 3/27/2016.
[11] Interview with David Shedd, March 7th, 2016.
[12] Ankit Panda, “Confirmed: Construction Begins on China’s First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti,”
The Diplomat, February 29, 2016.
[13] CCTV, “35,860 Chinese nationals in Libya evacuated:FM,”
CCTV.com, 3/3/2011.
[14] Entering Taiwan – Taiwan Today, “China to Build Military Base in Djibouti,” Filmed [December 2015], YouTube video, Posted [December 2015].
.
[15] Geoffrey Aronson, “China to open its first naval base in Africa,”
Aljazeera, December 22, 2015.
[16] The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, “China’s Military Strategy,”
en.people.cn, May 26, 2015.
http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0526/c90785-8897779.html
[17] European Commission, “Countries and regions: China,” accessed 3/27/2016.
[18] Interview with Toshi Yoshihara, March 9th, 2016.
[19] Ross Rustici and Christopher D. Yung, with Scott Devary and Jenny Lin, “‘Not an Idea We Have to Shun: Chinese Overseas Basing Requirements in the 21st Century,” (
National Defense University, October 2014,) 29.
[20] Ray Sanchez and Barbara Starr, “U.S. Says China deploys fighter jets to disputed South China Sea Island,”
CNN, February 23, 2016.
[21] Shang Wenbin, Liang Jingfeng, and Li Youtao, “Chinese Marines, Special Forces Training in Gobi Desert,”
Military Training International, January 19, 2016.
[22] Daily Pioneer, “China’s military might, now for Africa to see,”
Daily Pioneer, February 11, 2016.
[23] Joseph Braude, “Radio Beijing in the Middle East,”
The American Interest, January 20, 2014.
[24] World Bank, “World Integrated Trade Solution,” accessed 3/27/2016.
[25] Abd al-Rahman ‘Atiya, “I’tiradh Safina Iraniya min Miyah al-Yemen” (Interception of an Iranian Ship from the Waters of Yemen).
Al-Hayat, February 14, 2016.
[26] Beng, “The Strategic Attractions of Djibouti.”
[27] “Al-Sa’udiya Tu’lin Ta’sis Tahaluf Yadhum 34 Dawla li-‘Muharabat al-Irhab’” (Saudi Arabia Announces Establishment of a Coalition of 34 States to ‘Fight Terrorism’).
BBC Arabic, December 15, 2015.
[28] Interview with Rafha camp administrative officials, Rafha, Saudi Arabia, January 2003.
[29] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Wang Yi: China and Arab Countries Should Carry Out Counter-Terrorism Cooperation,”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, June 4, 2014.
[30] Ben Blanchard, Edited Simon Cameron-Moore and Paul Tait, “China offers support for Yemen government as Xi visits Saudi Arabia,”
Reuters, January 20, 2016.
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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-braude/why-china-and-saudi-arabi_b_12194702.html
Interesting times ahead of us but I can't think about what the natives in those countries think about all this? Not much of a say, I imagine.
BTW can somebody connect the dots here? KSA, Egypt, UAE and China. Ring any bells? Did I mention the word nuclear here?
Now where is Yemen in all this? It is absolutely central and THE key (Bab el-Mandeb) so that is also a reason why KSA will never give up Yemen (backyard too) and why Egypt is involved as well.
That pretty much cemented his removal. 
