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Upset with US’ India ‘tilt’, Pak redraws foreign policy

LOL

Losing Bangladesh was a blessing in disguise.

Bangladesh is an LDC and has more poverty than Pakistan.

All that poor in Pakistan would have been devestating for the economy, when Bangladesh is only the size of Sindh province.
 
One of the best articles I have come across on US Pakistan relations.

A tougher approach
Moeed YusufUpdated September 05, 2017

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The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, D.C


Yet again, the familiar question: will the Pakistan-US relationship survive the present impasse? My answer for years has been that it must. The risks of letting go are too high for both. I stand by this. But I’d be lying if I said that the developments in recent days have not given me pause.

I could still make a good case that the time-tested Pakistan-US playbook continues to be in play. President Trump announced his Afghan strategy in a political speech addressed to a domestic audience. He couldn’t have downplayed Washington’s critical views. But his harsh words for Pakistan didn’t necessarily imply a hard decision to give up on attempts at constructive engagement. The State Department’s effort to stress the US’s continued interest in a peace process in Afghanistan and its offer to send a senior official to Islamabad after the speech were positive signals.

On Pakistan’s side, the public reaction isn’t surprising. The mistrust vis-à-vis the US was always going to make a standoffish approach intuitive for many in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. They were also concerned that appearing weak would invite even harsher US rhetoric. Also, the general anti-US leaning of the public implied that a hard-hitting response would check the government’s popularity box.

Many seem certain that the US is resolved to take Pakistan to task.

If this was business as usual, we’d expect the huffing and puffing to go on for a bit before both sides got back to pretending they are on the same page. Even if this is still the plan, there are strong undercurrents that may make the outcome fundamentally different. Pakistani officialdom seems to have derived two extraordinary conclusions from Trump’s speech.

First, many seem convinced that the US is resolved to take Pakistan to task in the short run. The articulations of what the US might do range from diplomatic and economic pressure; to excessive use of drones; to the US even staging an Osama bin Laden type raid to embarrass Pakistan. The national security apparatus is contemplating untoward scenarios and mitigation options.

I asked someone relevant why options to find a conciliatory way out are not featuring prominently. The response? The US is going to create one excuse or the other to come after us. So it’s not the time to show flexibility.

Second, there is consensus across the policy spectrum that US intentions in Afghanistan are sinister: the principal US goal, I am told, is to retain military bases indefinitely — not to settle Afghanistan but to undercut China and Russia. The prime target for now is going to be CPEC. India will be a key partner in this endeavour.

Only one Pakistani policy direction can flow from this thinking: a decidedly negative one for the Pakistan-US engagement in Afghanistan.

These are not new thoughts. America’s worst critics in Pakistan have often insinuated such motives. The difference is that the mainstream is on board this time, including those who have traditionally been convinced of the merits of continuing to work with the US.

The prognosis on the US side isn’t any better. One, perhaps for the first time, one can’t rule out a US decision to act on its coercive threats. While often overlooked in the Pakistani discourse, the US policy debate on Pakistan has always recognised the cons of going down the punishment path. Ultimately, those advocating calm have tended to win out.

They may still. But frustration levels with Pakistan are as high as I have ever seen them. And the narrative on the Pakistan policy has finally converged on the punishment approach. Fair or not, there is a belief that Afghanistan will only be won if the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network presence in Pakistan is neutralised; and that the only hope of making this happen is to use a stick-heavy approach. Even those who are sceptical seem to think it’s worth a try.

Two, because the present stand-off in ties strengthens the hands of those in Washington who have regularly critiqued US policy for being unnecessarily wary of Pakistan’s reactions to a coercive approach. The potency of their argument has always been inversely proportional to the hope for constructive engagement. The current anti-engagement mood in Pakistan makes their task easier: the US must act upon its threats to call Pakistan’s bluff or it will be seen as rewarding its intransigence.

Nothing good can come out of a collision. US coercion has no chance of getting it what it wants from Pakistan; yet, Pakistan can’t pretend it won’t hurt badly if the US flexes its muscle. Meanwhile, the fallout of the increased bitterness will make things worse in Afghanistan. The only way out, again, is engagement. It is going to take some doing in the current environment. But they must — for the alternative this time round may not be business as usual.

The writer is a foreign policy expert based in Washington, D.C

Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2017

https://www.dawn.com/news/1355655/a-tougher-approach
 
Another very good write up by an ex Ambassador.

Our Afghanistan policy
Ashraf Jehangir QaziUpdated September 09, 2017

59b2f0de20efb.jpg

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.


THE National Assembly, the government and the COAS have categorically rejectedPresident Trump’s allegations against Pakistan. The furious outrage of the political and military elite in Pakistan brings to mind Hamlet’s mother who said “the lady doth protest too much, methinks” which questions the credibility of overreactions. The reaction in Pakistan obscures the fact that none of Trump’s charges against Pakistan are new and none of Pakistan’s denials are entirely convincing — even among Pakistanis. The first sensible reaction has been from Pakistan’s much maligned diplomatic envoys who reportedly “urged the government to avoid any knee-jerk reactions and prefer diplomacy to confrontation”.

It is true the US has not provided evidence of alleged Pakistani assistance to the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. The border is porous, people flow back and forth, and complete border control is impossible. Building border fences unilaterally will exacerbate rather than alleviate tensions. Moreover, there are legitimate Pakistani contacts with “the political wings” of the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network apparently to urge them to come to the negotiating table for a peace settlement with Kabul. However, this is a scenario in which games can be played — and are played.

Pakistan’s reaction does not take into account that a frustrated Trump, whose presidency hangs in the balance, may be looking for a “splendid little war” to divert domestic attention from his dismal and embarrassing performance at home and whip up support for ‘the chief slaying monsters abroad.’ North Korea is not on the menu because China would intervene in any American assault. It is less clear what China’s reaction would be to another Abbottabad-like assault on targets in Pakistan beyond robust denunciation.

Alienating Kabul and relying on the Taliban to provide leverage is demonstrably stupid.

Trump’s generals in Washington and Afghanistan approved his warnings to Pakistan and his authorising them to take any action they think appropriate without seeking his further approval. These are likely to be drone attacks and ‘black ops’ by special forces who do not require access to air or ground routes in Pakistan. The generals saw the reaction of Pakistan to the raid on Abbottabad in May 2011 and are not likely to be deterred from similar or escalated action again. Given the professional advice of Pakistan’s diplomats, it is not clear what the foreign minister meant by a “paradigm shift” in foreign policy.

The BRICS statement referred to four extremist organisations located in Pakistan as threats to regional security. They are on the UN terrorist list and are banned but active in Pakistan. Given Trump’s statement, the China-India disengagement from Doklam, and the Xi-Modi meeting on the sidelines of the Xiamen summit there is a worrying query: is China gently but publicly pressing Pakistan to take down organisations on its territory who have links with insurgents on Chinese territory? If Pakistan is silly enough to ignore this message it will progressively upset China and sow doubts in Chinese minds about their strategic partnership with Pakistan. This would inevitably impact CPEC. If this happens Pakistan will have kicked itself in the face again!

A central failing of Pakistan’s regional strategy is its failure to generate Afghan trust in its policies and in allowing America and the Arabs to complicate its relations with neighbouring Iran. This has facilitated the growth of Indian political influence in both countries. The opportunities presented by President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Rawalpindi in November 2014 after he became president have been wasted. The same mistake was made with former president Hamid Karzai who spoke of the two countries as “conjoined twins”. But instead of learning from failed policies, self-serving narratives were constructed to demonise Afghan leaders as Indian puppets. These blunders have cost Pakistan dearly. What is required in Afghanistan is not a continued American military presence but Pakistan’s unqualified support for Kabul’s search for a broad-based political settlement. An unstable Afghanistan will inevitably negate all the gains claimed for the various counterterrorism operations inside Pakistan.

The US war on terror in Afghanistan has been an abject failure due to arrogant militarism and political ignorance. The recent blasphemous leaflets showered upon Afghans about the Taliban demonstrate an incorrigible American disdain. US allegations against Pakistan are motivated by frustration. But Pakistan’s policies in Afghanistan have also been counterproductive. Alienating Kabul and relying on the Taliban to provide leverage is demonstrably stupid. Pakistan’s policy has also been unnecessarily India-centric. This alienates Afghan political opinion and ensures that Pakistan will lose zero-sum games with India inside Afghanistan. Afghan goodwill for India will not translate into ill will towards Pakistan unless its policies are seen by Afghans as forcing upon them an unwanted choice between India and Pakistan. We need to have more confidence in our natural links with Afghanistan.

Accordingly, Pakistan’s regional priorities should include (i) developing longer-term strategic coordination and regional crisis management with China; (ii) rebuilding trust with Kabul by convincing it that Pakistan will have no truck with organisations that take up arms against it; (iii) avoiding ill-considered and self-defeating Afghan policies that confound Chinese strategic calculations; (iv) developing a predictable, substantial, mutually beneficial if non-strategic relationship with the US to minimise negative policy fallout; and (v) maintaining its principled stance on the Kashmir dispute, while focusing on a dialogue with India that (a) helps to alleviate the unspeakable human rights situation in the Valley and (b) builds on the tentative ‘understandings’ reached in the 2005-6 back-channel talks through confidence-building measures and agreed modalities for APHC and other independent Kashmiri participation in a settlement process. This is neither easy nor impossible. A reliable bilateral relationship with Iran is also a priority.

Such an integrated approach could progressively limit India’s ability to use Afghanistan against Pakistan; improve Pakistan’s image in Afghanistan and Iran enabling its views to elicit sympathy and understanding; and reduce US suspicion and Indian hostility. This will require strong leadership; policy realism and imagination; a well-resourced and influential foreign service; and an intellectually active foreign policy community. These priorities will need to be embedded in a national transformation process. Correcting a dysfunctional Afghanistan and regional policy requires holistic change, yes, a ‘paradigm shift’.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

ashrafjqazi@gmail.com

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2017

https://www.dawn.com/news/1356475/our-afghanistan-policy
 
Pakistan has a strategic location. It can benefit from Iran, 1 trillion dollar worth of minerals in Afghanistan, trade with China and trade with India.

Its time Pakistan takes measures toward economic stability and growth. Use the position for their advantage. Once money flows in, the problems will subside. Even if politicians get corrupt money, which they will take anyways, there will be hope and growth of regular Pakistani.

But Pakistani politicians don't want it. With money comes rationality. With rationality, people won't elect them. It is better to keep populace ignorant and emotionally involved in other issues like war threats, religion, sects.
 
Another very good write up by an ex Ambassador.

Our Afghanistan policy
Ashraf Jehangir QaziUpdated September 09, 2017

59b2f0de20efb.jpg

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.


THE National Assembly, the government and the COAS have categorically rejectedPresident Trump’s allegations against Pakistan. The furious outrage of the political and military elite in Pakistan brings to mind Hamlet’s mother who said “the lady doth protest too much, methinks” which questions the credibility of overreactions. The reaction in Pakistan obscures the fact that none of Trump’s charges against Pakistan are new and none of Pakistan’s denials are entirely convincing — even among Pakistanis. The first sensible reaction has been from Pakistan’s much maligned diplomatic envoys who reportedly “urged the government to avoid any knee-jerk reactions and prefer diplomacy to confrontation”.

It is true the US has not provided evidence of alleged Pakistani assistance to the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. The border is porous, people flow back and forth, and complete border control is impossible. Building border fences unilaterally will exacerbate rather than alleviate tensions. Moreover, there are legitimate Pakistani contacts with “the political wings” of the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network apparently to urge them to come to the negotiating table for a peace settlement with Kabul. However, this is a scenario in which games can be played — and are played.

Pakistan’s reaction does not take into account that a frustrated Trump, whose presidency hangs in the balance, may be looking for a “splendid little war” to divert domestic attention from his dismal and embarrassing performance at home and whip up support for ‘the chief slaying monsters abroad.’ North Korea is not on the menu because China would intervene in any American assault. It is less clear what China’s reaction would be to another Abbottabad-like assault on targets in Pakistan beyond robust denunciation.

Alienating Kabul and relying on the Taliban to provide leverage is demonstrably stupid.

Trump’s generals in Washington and Afghanistan approved his warnings to Pakistan and his authorising them to take any action they think appropriate without seeking his further approval. These are likely to be drone attacks and ‘black ops’ by special forces who do not require access to air or ground routes in Pakistan. The generals saw the reaction of Pakistan to the raid on Abbottabad in May 2011 and are not likely to be deterred from similar or escalated action again. Given the professional advice of Pakistan’s diplomats, it is not clear what the foreign minister meant by a “paradigm shift” in foreign policy.

The BRICS statement referred to four extremist organisations located in Pakistan as threats to regional security. They are on the UN terrorist list and are banned but active in Pakistan. Given Trump’s statement, the China-India disengagement from Doklam, and the Xi-Modi meeting on the sidelines of the Xiamen summit there is a worrying query: is China gently but publicly pressing Pakistan to take down organisations on its territory who have links with insurgents on Chinese territory? If Pakistan is silly enough to ignore this message it will progressively upset China and sow doubts in Chinese minds about their strategic partnership with Pakistan. This would inevitably impact CPEC. If this happens Pakistan will have kicked itself in the face again!

A central failing of Pakistan’s regional strategy is its failure to generate Afghan trust in its policies and in allowing America and the Arabs to complicate its relations with neighbouring Iran. This has facilitated the growth of Indian political influence in both countries. The opportunities presented by President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Rawalpindi in November 2014 after he became president have been wasted. The same mistake was made with former president Hamid Karzai who spoke of the two countries as “conjoined twins”. But instead of learning from failed policies, self-serving narratives were constructed to demonise Afghan leaders as Indian puppets. These blunders have cost Pakistan dearly. What is required in Afghanistan is not a continued American military presence but Pakistan’s unqualified support for Kabul’s search for a broad-based political settlement. An unstable Afghanistan will inevitably negate all the gains claimed for the various counterterrorism operations inside Pakistan.

The US war on terror in Afghanistan has been an abject failure due to arrogant militarism and political ignorance. The recent blasphemous leaflets showered upon Afghans about the Taliban demonstrate an incorrigible American disdain. US allegations against Pakistan are motivated by frustration. But Pakistan’s policies in Afghanistan have also been counterproductive. Alienating Kabul and relying on the Taliban to provide leverage is demonstrably stupid. Pakistan’s policy has also been unnecessarily India-centric. This alienates Afghan political opinion and ensures that Pakistan will lose zero-sum games with India inside Afghanistan. Afghan goodwill for India will not translate into ill will towards Pakistan unless its policies are seen by Afghans as forcing upon them an unwanted choice between India and Pakistan. We need to have more confidence in our natural links with Afghanistan.

Accordingly, Pakistan’s regional priorities should include (i) developing longer-term strategic coordination and regional crisis management with China; (ii) rebuilding trust with Kabul by convincing it that Pakistan will have no truck with organisations that take up arms against it; (iii) avoiding ill-considered and self-defeating Afghan policies that confound Chinese strategic calculations; (iv) developing a predictable, substantial, mutually beneficial if non-strategic relationship with the US to minimise negative policy fallout; and (v) maintaining its principled stance on the Kashmir dispute, while focusing on a dialogue with India that (a) helps to alleviate the unspeakable human rights situation in the Valley and (b) builds on the tentative ‘understandings’ reached in the 2005-6 back-channel talks through confidence-building measures and agreed modalities for APHC and other independent Kashmiri participation in a settlement process. This is neither easy nor impossible. A reliable bilateral relationship with Iran is also a priority.

Such an integrated approach could progressively limit India’s ability to use Afghanistan against Pakistan; improve Pakistan’s image in Afghanistan and Iran enabling its views to elicit sympathy and understanding; and reduce US suspicion and Indian hostility. This will require strong leadership; policy realism and imagination; a well-resourced and influential foreign service; and an intellectually active foreign policy community. These priorities will need to be embedded in a national transformation process. Correcting a dysfunctional Afghanistan and regional policy requires holistic change, yes, a ‘paradigm shift’.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

ashrafjqazi@gmail.com

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2017

https://www.dawn.com/news/1356475/our-afghanistan-policy

Ramblings of an old man. No backing and rational arguments for the points he is making
 
Pakistan has a strategic location. It can benefit from Iran, 1 trillion dollar worth of minerals in Afghanistan, trade with China and trade with India.

Its time Pakistan takes measures toward economic stability and growth. Use the position for their advantage. Once money flows in, the problems will subside. Even if politicians get corrupt money, which they will take anyways, there will be hope and growth of regular Pakistani.

But Pakistani politicians don't want it. With money comes rationality. With rationality, people won't elect them. It is better to keep populace ignorant and emotionally involved in other issues like war threats, religion, sects.
And that has always been the problem for Pakistan. Only those politicos approved by the military can hold power. And that's how the generals enjoy >50% of all economic activity and hike Pakistan burns for decades.

The military also is smart - it uses the Muslim and Islam card that keeps the public fooled, the jihadi groups well staffed.
 
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