U.S. Navy's new $13B aircraft carrier can't fight

[UKBengali]

The prototype of the J-20B will be tested by next year.

I suppose this is the definite version with WS-15 engine?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I suppose this is the definite version with WS-15 engine?

Yes, it will be.

 

[That Guy]

No, they are just opinions.
A fact is something that has really occurred or is actually the case. A prediction in the future 20,30 or 40 years down the line can only be an opinion.

Do you really know how far advanced a US destroyer is over a Chinese one? It could be say 10 years at present and what makes you so sure that the Chinese cannot close this gap by 2030? No-one knows and so our arguments can only be opinion

Facts can also be statistics, and current ground realities. Opinions can also be factual based.

 

[jhungary]

What makes you think that the Chinese won't eventually build naval bases all over the world? They sure will have the money as their economy is already the largest in real terms in the world and still growing many times quicker than the US.

Why do the Chinese need to build 200 ships and 10 aircraft carriers? They would be wise to focus on highly advanced SSNs to challenge the US Navy in the Atlantic and other areas that may be a bit of a stretch to send CBGs on regular patrols. I am not sure how good their anti-ship ballistic missiles and hyper sonic weapons are but they could also in theory be launched from China at US Navy anywhere in the world.

I think it unlikely that China will waste resources matching the US ship for ship. They are more likely to have enough to be confident of domination in SCS and up to Hawaii in the Western Pacific. Other areas we will likely see SSNs and the liberal use of anti-ship ballistic missiles and hyper sonic weapons.

All that China needs is to develop it's economy like Korea/Taiwan have done and it will have won. A much poorer US cannot challenge a richer China.

First of all, you are crazy. you need more than money and influence to build naval base all around the world. I am not talking about overseas bases operate by a foreign country, I am talking about Chinese overseas territories. Will they be able to gain overseas territories now? It was unlikely.

Second of all, you cannot challenge the US without a Ship for Ship comparison, world war 2 already show us the Submarine can be a determine factor of a war but NEVER any major player in any naval warfare, the US, Nazi Germany and Japan all tried an fail to end the World War 2 by submarine warfare, The Nazi Germany Tried on the Battle of Atlantic, The US tried it on the Battle of Philippine, and US did not won the war in the Pacific by killing IJN with their sub, they did so by destroying every single ship the IJN has

Third of all, China is a developing country, US is a fully developed country and a mature economy, also, China is 4 times bigger in population than in the US, they will of course have a bigger economy, but they will also have a bigger burden, until the day the Chinese Government decided to kill off the poor and non-productive like Hilter, they have more mouth to feed in China, thus, even tho China may eventually surpass US in size of economy, there are no way China will be richer than America, judging from the current situation (6.7% groth when the GDP is 2/3 of American), the Chinese GDP will flat out when it hit twice the size of US economy, and that's means the average Chinese is still half the wealth of an Average American

 

[jhungary]

one thing they failed to see is

US is still ahead in some high tech manufacturing production, like automobile industry, robotic industry, military Naval industry and finally Aerospace/aviation industry. The total aircraft manufacturing output of US of A alone can't be matched by the rest of the world combined and considering the status of most European Nation with their Airbus consortium as US allies, the most likely scenario in any contingency situation and crisis, US and her Allies can easily outmatch and outperform their wannabe enemies in the future in any category of military production...

lol, yes, the manufacturer power in the US is kept for most part and even tho now is at minimal output, that does not mean they can be expanded in a short period of time.

 

[Oldman1]

RMB will bounce back after G20, and the chance for China to return at 8% is better than the US to return at 3%.



J-20 is about the same quantity as F-22, and J-31 will be pulled out in a good number.

You saying that currently, you have about 200 J-20s?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

You saying that currently, you have about 200 J-20s?

Believe me, the mass production is going to be quick.

 

[UKBengali]

First of all, you are crazy. you need more than money and influence to build naval base all around the world. I am not talking about overseas bases operate by a foreign country, I am talking about Chinese overseas territories. Will they be able to gain overseas territories now? It was unlikely.

Second of all, you cannot challenge the US without a Ship for Ship comparison, world war 2 already show us the Submarine can be a determine factor of a war but NEVER any major player in any naval warfare, the US, Nazi Germany and Japan all tried an fail to end the World War 2 by submarine warfare, The Nazi Germany Tried on the Battle of Atlantic, The US tried it on the Battle of Philippine, and US did not won the war in the Pacific by killing IJN with their sub, they did so by destroying every single ship the IJN has

Third of all, China is a developing country, US is a fully developed country and a mature economy, also, China is 4 times bigger in population than in the US, they will of course have a bigger economy, but they will also have a bigger burden, until the day the Chinese Government decided to kill off the poor and non-productive like Hilter, they have more mouth to feed in China, thus, even tho China may eventually surpass US in size of economy, there are no way China will be richer than America, judging from the current situation (6.7% groth when the GDP is 2/3 of American), the Chinese GDP will flat out when it hit twice the size of US economy, and that's means the average Chinese is still half the wealth of an Average American

1. China does not need to build 10 CBGs. 6-8 should suffice and you dont need a naval base for each CBG as there will always be some out at sea and so each base can be shared between more than one CBG.

2. You are comparing slow moving WW2-era diesel submarines with modern SSNs can can move and keep up with surface ships? lol Their inherent disadvantage, apart from slow underwater speed, was that they had to surface for air and so were then vulnerable to detection and destruction. Modern SSNs can stay submerged underwater for many months at a time.Germany nearly won the battle of the Atlantic and it took a combined effort from the UK/US to defeat it.

3. You dont know that China will only grow to 2x total GDP of US. Even if it does, that is more than sufficient to provide a sufficient lifestyle for it's citizens as that is the level of Spain, and it can also spend enough on defence to have a better military than US. If China needs to, it can outspend the US on defence by twice and gain military superiority.

Believe me, the mass production is going to be quick.

It is likely that China will wait for the WS-15 version, that should be ready for production by 2019-2020, and then it will produce in numbers. Before then you may only see 2-3 squadrons of J-20 in service with PLAAF.

 

[jhungary]

1. China does not need to build 10 CBGs. 6-8 should suffice and you dont need a aval base for each CBG as there will always be some out at sea and so each base caen b shared between more than one CBG.

2. You are comparing slow moving WW2-era diesel submarines with modern SSNs can can move and keep up with surface ships? lol Their inherent disadvantage, apart from slow underwater speed, was that they had to surface for air and so were then vulnerable to detection and destruction. Modern SSNs can stay submerged underwater for many months at a time.Germany nearly won the battle of the Atlantic and it took a combined effort from the UK/US to defeat it.

3. You dont know that China will only grow to 2x total GDP of US. Even if it does, that is more than sufficient to provide a sufficient lifestyle for it's citizens as that is the level of Spain, and it can also spend enough on defence to have a better military than US. If China needs to, it can outspend the US on defence by twice and gain military superiority.



It is likely that China will wait for the WS-15 version, that should be ready for production by 2019-2020, and then it will produce in numbers. Before then you may only see 2-3 squadrons of J-20 in service with PLAAF.

1.) Do tell how china can afford 6 to 8 CBG? 5 more than max out. Where 3 going out and 2 stay in yard, do remember we are talking about CBG, not a single carrier, a CBG consist of 10-15 ships. You have to put them all in port at once, so with a single coast line and 2 major Naval Base, China can at most put 1 each in port while the 3 went out in different direction

Also, it's not easy to support a CBG without overseas territories in case of war. Basically, everything you need to support the ship have to be transport directly from China, unless you think India, South Korea, Japan and the Philippine or Indonesia would allow China to have access to their bases and risk being attack by the US.

2.) No, I am comparing WW2 Diesel Submarine to WW2 Diesel Destroyer and surface warship and Modern Nuclear Sub and Modern warship. Warship design change but the roles stays the same, I am not commenting on the ship itself but its role. And no, if you read history carefully, Germany were no where near the tonnage they need to sink per day, don't forget, US alone turn out 1 single Liberty ship EVERYDAY, the German were sinking at most (At their peak) 1 ships every 3 days on average.

3.) You seems to forgot China have to pay at least 4 times as much infrastructure than in the United States to support a population 4 times as much as in the United States, you will need 4 times more of public housing, school, hospital, law and order, civil service and etc. Again, unless China decided to kill of the unproductive like Hitler, they will need to pay 4 times as much domestic spending then the United States. And with a 2 times the size of the economy, which leave you not much to spend on anything else.

 

[Blue Marlin]

its not supposed to fight,
the fleet aroud it is meant to fight for it. the job of a carrier is to deloy aircraft/helicopters. among other things its not meant to go near the coast and fight. and remember a carrier will never be alone and it wil be accompanied by somthing that can fight

 

[UKBengali]

1.) Do tell how china can afford 6 to 8 CBG? 5 more than max out. Where 3 going out and 2 stay in yard, do remember we are talking about CBG, not a single carrier, a CBG consist of 10-15 ships. You have to put them all in port at once, so with a single coast line and 2 major Naval Base, China can at most put 1 each in port while the 3 went out in different direction

Also, it's not easy to support a CBG without overseas territories in case of war. Basically, everything you need to support the ship have to be transport directly from China, unless you think India, South Korea, Japan and the Philippine or Indonesia would allow China to have access to their bases and risk being attack by the US.

2.) No, I am comparing WW2 Diesel Submarine to WW2 Diesel Destroyer and surface warship and Modern Nuclear Sub and Modern warship. Warship design change but the roles stays the same, I am not commenting on the ship itself but its role. And no, if you read history carefully, Germany were no where near the tonnage they need to sink per day, don't forget, US alone turn out 1 single Liberty ship EVERYDAY, the German were sinking at most (At their peak) 1 ships every 3 days on average.

3.) You seems to forgot China have to pay at least 4 times as much infrastructure than in the United States to support a population 4 times as much as in the United States, you will need 4 times more of public housing, school, hospital, law and order, civil service and etc. Again, unless China decided to kill of the unproductive like Hitler, they will need to pay 4 times as much domestic spending then the United States. And with a 2 times the size of the economy, which leave you not much to spend on anything else.

1/ What is stopping China from building more naval bases? Taiwan will be reunified with China in the next 20 years and it will be peaceful, and so a Naval base can be constructed there to host a CBG.

Even according to you China will reach twice the GDP of US and so with only half the GDP spending of US, it will have the same defence budget. It can easily afford 6-8 CBGs since the US can afford 10.

2. No. Surface ships in WW2 had a cruise speed of 15 knots and the German U-boats had only 8 knots. U-boats had to "hunt" the surface convoys by lying in wait at pre-determined points along the route which the allies of course knew.
With modern SSNs they could come at the surface ships from any angle and hunt over a larger area as their underwater speed is the same as surface ships. I have also mentioned that unlike diesel subs, they also do not need to surface and so would be much less vulnerable to detection and destruction
And you forget that the US/UK were much more wealthy than Germany and so could easily out-build them - not to mention that Germany was spending most of it's resources building armoured vehicles to fight the Russians in Europe and not submarines for the battle of the Atlantic. In a US and China showdown, we are assuming the resources are the same between the two.

3. Why China need to spend 4 times more than US on their citizens? If they had twice the GDP of US they could spend say 2 times much as US and still give their citizens a good standard of living. This would leave China the option of spending between 1-2 times the defence budget of the US on their military. China would hold the cards and could do what the US did to USSR and try to bankrupt it in an arms race.

 

[jhungary]

1/ What is stopping China from building more naval bases? Taiwan will be reunified with China in the next 20 years and it will be peaceful, and so a Naval base can be constructed there to host a CBG.

Even according to you China will reach twice the GDP of US and so with only half the GDP spending of US, it will have the same defence budget. It can easily afford 6-8 CBGs since the US can afford 10.

2. No. Surface ships in WW2 had a cruise speed of 15 knots and the German U-boats had only 8 knots. U-boats had to "hunt" the surface convoys by lying in wait at pre-determined points along the route which the allies of course knew.
With modern SSNs they could come at the surface ships from any angle and hunt over a larger area as their underwater speed is the same as surface ships. I have also mentioned that unlike diesel subs, they also do not need to surface and so would be much less vulnerable to detection and destruction
And you forget that the US/UK were much more wealthy than Germany and so could easily out-build them - not to mention that Germany was spending most of it's resources building armoured vehicles to fight the Russians in Europe and not submarines for the battle of the Atlantic. In a US and China showdown, we are assuming the resources are the same between the two.

3. Why China need to spend 4 times more than US on their citizens? If they had twice the GDP of US they could spend say 2 times much as US and still give their citizens a good standard of living. This would leave China the option of spending between 1-2 times the defence budget of the US on their military. China would hold the cards and could do what the US did to USSR and try to bankrupt it in an arms race.

Jeez, you are really naïve....

1.) What stopping China from building Naval Bases? How about Geological Limits? You do know building a navy base for a 100,000 tons ship is not something you can just say you can do, there are a lot of geological limit a location can be used to drydock such a ships. Stuff like traffic pattern, land area, weather, and most importantly, Waterline Clearance

Set aside whether or not Taiwan will be reunited with China in the next 20 years, that is unsubstantial and baseless claim, You can say that as much as I can say Taiwan will allow US to base their ship's there in 20 years.

Let's look at a place closer than Taiwan and is currently Chinese Territories, a little place famous for the deep water port called Hong Kong. You do know whenever US CBG visited Hong Kong, the are not moored at the Victoria Harbor's deep water port, they are moored outside Ching Yi because that is their clearance limits.

In geological sense, all coastle area have a low waterline, that is the reason why that is a coastal area, touching between water and land, and most of them are beaches, a natural harbor is actually a cliff that most of the cliff was submerge in water, and that geological feature is quite hard to find, And in China, there are only two location along the coast can do that. One in Tsing Tao, one in Hainan.

If building a Deep water port that can support 100,000 tons plus ship is that easy as you say, US would not be rotating the 4 deep water ports to service their 10 carrier, they would have build as many as they want along the eastern and western seaboard.

Set aside this, even for argument sake you can actually build 4 or more deep water port along the single coast in China, you still cannot build 6 Carrier Battle Group in just 20 years, Considering China are building 3 Type 052D every year, 6 CBG would have at least 70 Destroyer (12 ship's each CBG) so you will still be 10 ship's short Also Consider this, the US need on average 5 years to build a Nimitz Cass, even if you say Chinese Carrier Ship building is on par with the US (Highly Unlikely), it would take China at least 30 years to build 6 Nimitz Class-type ship.

2.) lol, you are saying the modern submarine have a same speed submerge as with any surface ship? You do know the submerged top speed of Sea wolf class is 25 knots, Los Angeles Class is 23 knots, Virginia's Top Speed is classified but they are believed to be 25-30 OH, With Chinese Sub in a similar reported speed. A typical destroyer can go up to 40-42 knots OH and even a Nimitz class aircraft carrier have a speed of over 35 knots. Not to mention today sonar technology means the survivability in a submarine now is a lot less than in WW2.

And also, you do know Nazi German lost 778 submarine during the whole battle of the Atlantic, Which average 120 submarine LOST per year, with the attrition rate of 40%, which mean they have about 250-300 sub deployed in the Atlantic EVERY YEAR, There are no way anyone can achieve these number in the modern day.

3.) Dude, why China need 4 times infrastructure cost than the United States? They have 1.3 billions bloody people, the US only have 315 millions people, that's why. China need to spend 4 times as much on their citizens because they have 4 times as much Citizens than the United States.

Having twice the economic power have nothing to do with spending on infrastructure, simply you can spend more but you cannot spend less, The estimated GDP spending on domestic government (ie education, medical, and infrastructure) in the US in FY2015 is about 6.36 trillions dollars, that leave approximately 9 trillions to be used for other stuff including defence budget For China, they would need to spend 4 times as much which would be 26 trillions dollars.

You have more citizens, then you will have to spend more money look after them, again, as I said, unless you try to kill off the unproductive one, you are always going to be keep paying for them. Understood?

 

[UKBengali]

Jeez, you are really naïve....

1.) What stopping China from building Naval Bases? How about Geological Limits? You do know building a navy base for a 100,000 tons ship is not something you can just say you can do, there are a lot of geological limit a location can be used to drydock such a ships. Stuff like traffic pattern, land area, weather, and most importantly, Waterline Clearance

Set aside whether or not Taiwan will be reunited with China in the next 20 years, that is unsubstantial and baseless claim, You can say that as much as I can say Taiwan will allow US to base their ship's there in 20 years.

Let's look at a place closer than Taiwan and is currently Chinese Territories, a little place famous for the deep water port called Hong Kong. You do know whenever US CBG visited Hong Kong, the are not moored at the Victoria Harbor's deep water port, they are moored outside Ching Yi because that is their clearance limits.

In geological sense, all coastle area have a low waterline, that is the reason why that is a coastal area, touching between water and land, and most of them are beaches, a natural harbor is actually a cliff that most of the cliff was submerge in water, and that geological feature is quite hard to find, And in China, there are only two location along the coast can do that. One in Tsing Tao, one in Hainan.

If building a Deep water port that can support 100,000 tons plus ship is that easy as you say, US would not be rotating the 4 deep water ports to service their 10 carrier, they would have build as many as they want along the eastern and western seaboard.

Set aside this, even for argument sake you can actually build 4 or more deep water port along the single coast in China, you still cannot build 6 Carrier Battle Group in just 20 years, Considering China are building 3 Type 052D every year, 6 CBG would have at least 70 Destroyer (12 ship's each CBG) so you will still be 10 ship's short Also Consider this, the US need on average 5 years to build a Nimitz Cass, even if you say Chinese Carrier Ship building is on par with the US (Highly Unlikely), it would take China at least 30 years to build 6 Nimitz Class-type ship.

2.) lol, you are saying the modern submarine have a same speed submerge as with any surface ship? You do know the submerged top speed of Sea wolf class is 25 knots, Los Angeles Class is 23 knots, Virginia's Top Speed is classified but they are believed to be 25-30 OH, With Chinese Sub in a similar reported speed. A typical destroyer can go up to 40-42 knots OH and even a Nimitz class aircraft carrier have a speed of over 35 knots. Not to mention today sonar technology means the survivability in a submarine now is a lot less than in WW2.

And also, you do know Nazi German lost 778 submarine during the whole battle of the Atlantic, Which average 120 submarine LOST per year, with the attrition rate of 40%, which mean they have about 250-300 sub deployed in the Atlantic EVERY YEAR, There are no way anyone can achieve these number in the modern day.

3.) Dude, why China need 4 times infrastructure cost than the United States? They have 1.3 billions bloody people, the US only have 315 millions people, that's why. China need to spend 4 times as much on their citizens because they have 4 times as much Citizens than the United States.

Having twice the economic power have nothing to do with spending on infrastructure, simply you can spend more but you cannot spend less, The estimated GDP spending on domestic government (ie education, medical, and infrastructure) in the US in FY2015 is about 6.36 trillions dollars, that leave approximately 9 trillions to be used for other stuff including defence budget For China, they would need to spend 4 times as much which would be 26 trillions dollars.

You have more citizens, then you will have to spend more money look after them, again, as I said, unless you try to kill off the unproductive one, you are always going to be keep paying for them. Understood?

Don't get jumpy as it makes you look immature.

No point carrying on this as you are not willing to listen to reason and are only interested in pushing your own agenda here.

PS - Akula/Yasen SSN scan do 35 knots/hr submerged so you are just using whatever numbers suit you.

 

[danger007]

Jeez, you are really naïve....

1.) What stopping China from building Naval Bases? How about Geological Limits? You do know building a navy base for a 100,000 tons ship is not something you can just say you can do, there are a lot of geological limit a location can be used to drydock such a ships. Stuff like traffic pattern, land area, weather, and most importantly, Waterline Clearance

Set aside whether or not Taiwan will be reunited with China in the next 20 years, that is unsubstantial and baseless claim, You can say that as much as I can say Taiwan will allow US to base their ship's there in 20 years.

Let's look at a place closer than Taiwan and is currently Chinese Territories, a little place famous for the deep water port called Hong Kong. You do know whenever US CBG visited Hong Kong, the are not moored at the Victoria Harbor's deep water port, they are moored outside Ching Yi because that is their clearance limits.

In geological sense, all coastle area have a low waterline, that is the reason why that is a coastal area, touching between water and land, and most of them are beaches, a natural harbor is actually a cliff that most of the cliff was submerge in water, and that geological feature is quite hard to find, And in China, there are only two location along the coast can do that. One in Tsing Tao, one in Hainan.

If building a Deep water port that can support 100,000 tons plus ship is that easy as you say, US would not be rotating the 4 deep water ports to service their 10 carrier, they would have build as many as they want along the eastern and western seaboard.

Set aside this, even for argument sake you can actually build 4 or more deep water port along the single coast in China, you still cannot build 6 Carrier Battle Group in just 20 years, Considering China are building 3 Type 052D every year, 6 CBG would have at least 70 Destroyer (12 ship's each CBG) so you will still be 10 ship's short Also Consider this, the US need on average 5 years to build a Nimitz Cass, even if you say Chinese Carrier Ship building is on par with the US (Highly Unlikely), it would take China at least 30 years to build 6 Nimitz Class-type ship.

2.) lol, you are saying the modern submarine have a same speed submerge as with any surface ship? You do know the submerged top speed of Sea wolf class is 25 knots, Los Angeles Class is 23 knots, Virginia's Top Speed is classified but they are believed to be 25-30 OH, With Chinese Sub in a similar reported speed. A typical destroyer can go up to 40-42 knots OH and even a Nimitz class aircraft carrier have a speed of over 35 knots. Not to mention today sonar technology means the survivability in a submarine now is a lot less than in WW2.

And also, you do know Nazi German lost 778 submarine during the whole battle of the Atlantic, Which average 120 submarine LOST per year, with the attrition rate of 40%, which mean they have about 250-300 sub deployed in the Atlantic EVERY YEAR, There are no way anyone can achieve these number in the modern day.

3.) Dude, why China need 4 times infrastructure cost than the United States? They have 1.3 billions bloody people, the US only have 315 millions people, that's why. China need to spend 4 times as much on their citizens because they have 4 times as much Citizens than the United States.

Having twice the economic power have nothing to do with spending on infrastructure, simply you can spend more but you cannot spend less, The estimated GDP spending on domestic government (ie education, medical, and infrastructure) in the US in FY2015 is about 6.36 trillions dollars, that leave approximately 9 trillions to be used for other stuff including defence budget For China, they would need to spend 4 times as much which would be 26 trillions dollars.

You have more citizens, then you will have to spend more money look after them, again, as I said, unless you try to kill off the unproductive one, you are always going to be keep paying for them. Understood?

He is not chinese, Bangladeshi... you are explaining something which he can't understand..

 

[UKBengali]

He is not chinese, Bangladeshi... you are explaining something which he can't understand..

An Indian comes in here to comment.