U.S. Navy's new $13B aircraft carrier can't fight

[UKBengali]

I'm pretty sure us growth was actually above 2% and China at 6%.

Regardless, the US is a consumer market economy, it's growth percentage will always be lower. China is also transitioning to a consumer based economy, which is why we're also seeing a slow down within the Chinese economy as well, but there HAS been a major slow down. China went from 7-8%+ to 6.6% and is likely going to be even lower next year.

Military advantage has little to do with how how big your nation ppp gdp is, rather how you utilize your cash.

Israel has a tiny population, and a very small gdp, as compared to, say KSA, but we both know whom has the actual military advantage.

Look at the chart below:

As you can see US GDP growth is now running at around 1 % a year average. Figures for Q2 is not much better:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/us-advance-q2-2016-gross-domestic-product.html

As for China's growth rate, the Chinese government has targeted 6.5% for next 5 years and I am inclined to
listen to them rather than so-called Western experts who have been proven wrong multiple times on the Chinese
economy before.

China's economy in real terms is at 20-21 trillion US dollars compared to the 18-19 trillion US dollars for the US one. By 2030, it is easy to see China ending up with twice the GDP of the US in real terms. Even after 2030, China should still be growing quicker than the US as it will still be catching up. Are you seriously saying that a much poorer US will hold the military advantage for another 30-40 years? This makes no logical sense to me at all.

The reason why people keep thinking the US will remain dominant is because this is the way it has always been and they are not prepared to think about a time when it will no longer be this way.

"Israel" and KSA are not a good comparison for so many reasons. One of the major reasons is that KSA buys weapons for favours from Western countries like US/UK.

You cannot build 200 ships (10 of those are supercarrier) in just 20 years.no matter how rich your country was, ships and equipment will not appear just out of a snap of a finger. That is the first thing you need to realise.

Secondly, you can think of building the same force to match the US, but you have to answer this question

"Where do you put them when they are not in use?"

US have 4 large naval bases in both side of the US Seaboards, + Hawaii + Guam + Diego Garcia + overseas/alliance secondary bases that can service the ship they use now. China have a single coast line, which have 2 bases plus Hainan Island, and no overseas bases, how do you put 10 Carrier Battle Group in the 2 bases you have?

China cannot challenge US globally, may be Regionally, but most definitely not globally, and it is unreasonable to ask China to challenge the US on American side of the Pacific.

Also, most people failed to see most of the US defence budget gone to R&D and hoping to stay ahead in both quality and number, about 4/5 of the budget used to research and development, they can dump this idea anytime and focus on material production if China caught up or sped over the technology edge.

What makes you think that the Chinese won't eventually build naval bases all over the world? They sure will have the money as their economy is already the largest in real terms in the world and still growing many times quicker than the US.

Why do the Chinese need to build 200 ships and 10 aircraft carriers? They would be wise to focus on highly advanced SSNs to challenge the US Navy in the Atlantic and other areas that may be a bit of a stretch to send CBGs on regular patrols. I am not sure how good their anti-ship ballistic missiles and hyper sonic weapons are but they could also in theory be launched from China at US Navy anywhere in the world.

I think it unlikely that China will waste resources matching the US ship for ship. They are more likely to have enough to be confident of domination in SCS and up to Hawaii in the Western Pacific. Other areas we will likely see SSNs and the liberal use of anti-ship ballistic missiles and hyper sonic weapons.

All that China needs is to develop it's economy like Korea/Taiwan have done and it will have won. A much poorer US cannot challenge a richer China.

 

[That Guy]

Look at the chart below:

View attachment 323574

As you can see US GDP growth is now running at around 1 % a year average. Figures for Q2 is not much better:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/us-advance-q2-2016-gross-domestic-product.html

As for China's growth rate, the Chinese government has targeted 6.5% for next 5 years and I am inclined to
listen to them rather than so-called Western experts who have been proven wrong multiple times on the Chinese
economy before.

China's economy in real terms is at 20-21 trillion US dollars compared to the 18-19 trillion US dollars for the US one. By 2030, it is easy to see China ending up with twice the GDP/capita of the US in real terms. Even after 2030, China should still be growing quicker than the US as it will still be catching up. Are you seriously saying that a much poorer US will hold the military advantage for another 30-40 years? This makes no logical sense to me at all.

The reason why people keep thinking the US will remain dominant is because this is the way it has always been and they are not prepared to think about a time when it will no longer be this way.

"Israel" and KSA are not a good comparison for so many reasons. One of the major reasons is that KSA buys weapons for favours from Western countries like US/UK.

For your chart, it is showing quarterly growth, so :/

Okay, first of all, it isn't "western experts" saying this, it is Chinese economists.

Second, both PPP and nominal are "real terms"; they're both perfectly valid, but show different sides of economic health.

Next, it is unlikely that China will double the US GDP per-capita (which has nothing to do with military capability) within the next 14 years, keep in mind that China and the US have similar GDPs, even though the US has only a quarter of the population of China. The US also dominates the global defense market, and spends FAR FAR (hundreds of billions of dollars) more on defense research and development.

The US has a mature defense industry with reliable names attached to it, China's modern defense industry is still in it's early years compared to the US.

The reason why people think that the US will remain dominant for the first half of the century is because they have facts on their side.

The US is replacing their aging fleet of aircraft carries with the most technologically advanced ones within this decade. China is just starting to develop its fleet of carriers. The US controls every single shipping lane, both directly and indirectly, through its naval dominance, something China will be hard pressed to compete with. The US has massive economic and political influence with a majority of the world, and is still considered the sole super power, something China is only just starting to develop.

The US has already developed key technologies, and is already in the progress of developing of next generation tech, while China is still in the process of developing currect gen technology.

By the way, no one actually thinks that "US will remain dominant is because this is the way it has always been", because the first half of the 20th century was dominated by the British. US domination is actually quite a new phenomena, only about 30ish years old, because before then the US had to compete with the Soviets and the declining British war machine.

By the way, the Israel vs KSA example is perfectly suitable, if you actually look at the numbers. Please don't present opinion as fact. China itself buys weapons from the Russians, so your point is invalid.

 

[UKBengali]

@That Guy :

No-one has facts on their side - only their one opinion as a a fact is something that has really occurred or is actually the case. Predictions in the future can only be opinions and nothing else.

We can argue this point till the cows come home so let us wait till 2035 to find out.

PS - I edited my post as I should have said China will end up with twice the GDP of US by 2030 and not GDP/capita.

 

[danger007]

I'd say that too many people UNDERestimate the US. The Americans aren't just sitting around, doing nothing, they're actively developing and spending an enormous amount of resources on newer hardware and software.

The US economy is starting to pick up pace, once again, so it's not like the US is going to remain stagnant.

The fact Americans spent large sum from very long time.. even china upgrading it's weapons... US is something way forward for the next to catch up...

 

[F-22Raptor]

@That Guy :

No-one has facts on their side - only their one opinion as a a fact is something that has really occurred or is actually the case. Predictions in the future can only be opinions and nothing else.

We can argue this point till the cows come home so let us wait till 2035 to find out.

PS - I edited my post as I should have said China will end up with twice the GDP of US by 2030 and not GDP/capita.

US GDP is set to cross the 20 trillion mark in the next 3-5 years, and China will double that by 2030? All this while China has failed to close the gap the last 2 years, and their yearly growth rates continue to drop? That's simply wishful thinking.

 

[UKBengali]

US GDP is set to cross the 20 trillion mark in the next 3-5 years, and China will double that by 2030? All this while China has failed to close the gap the last 2 years, and their yearly growth rates continue to drop? That's simply wishful thinking.

Dude - I was talking about GDP PPP, where China already has a 2 trillion dollar lead over US.
This year US grows at 1% while China is at 7%

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

US GDP is set to cross the 20 trillion mark in the next 3-5 years, and China will double that by 2030? All this while China has failed to close the gap the last 2 years, and their yearly growth rates continue to drop? That's simply wishful thinking.

Because China still uses the SNA 1993, while the US uses the SNA 2008.

Under the SNA 2008, China's 2014 nominal GDP was around 11.5 trillion dollars.

http://www.theglobalist.com/china-economy-larger-united-states/

 

[UKBengali]

Because China still uses the SNA 1993, while the US uses the SNA 2008.

Under the SNA 2008, China's 2014 nominal GDP was around 11.5 trillion dollars.

http://www.theglobalist.com/china-economy-larger-united-states/

In your opinion, when do you think China should be able to militarily match the US?

 

[That Guy]

@That Guy :

No-one has facts on their side - only their one opinion as a a fact is something that has really occurred or is actually the case. Predictions in the future can only be opinions and nothing else.

We can argue this point till the cows come home so let us wait till 2035 to find out.

PS - I edited my post as I should have said China will end up with twice the GDP of US by 2030 and not GDP/capita.

Actually, I did present factual arguments, so I don't know why you're claiming that no one has facts on their side.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

In your opinion, when do you think China should be able to militarily match the US?

Air Force by 2020, Navy by 2030.

 

[UKBengali]

Actually, I did present factual arguments, so I don't know why you're claiming that no one has facts on their side.

No, they are just opinions.
A fact is something that has really occurred or is actually the case. A prediction in the future 20,30 or 40 years down the line can only be an opinion.

Do you really know how far advanced a US destroyer is over a Chinese one? It could be say 10 years at present and what makes you so sure that the Chinese cannot close this gap by 2030? No-one knows and so our arguments can only be opinion.

Air Force by 2020, Navy by 2030.

Airforce by 2020? How would China be able to match the nearly 200 F-22s, 500-600 F-35s and the 2000 F-15s/F-16s that the US will have in 2020?

 

[F-22Raptor]

Because China still uses the SNA 1993, while the US uses the SNA 2008.

Under the SNA 2008, China's 2014 nominal GDP was around 11.5 trillion dollars.

http://www.theglobalist.com/china-economy-larger-united-states/

It wasn't to long ago that you claimed China's GDP growth rate would rise back above 8%. That clearly won't happen. Whatever makes you feel better Tiger.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

It wasn't to long ago that you claimed China's GDP growth rate would rise back above 8%. That clearly won't happen. Whatever makes you feel better Tiger.

RMB will bounce back after G20, and the chance for China to return at 8% is better than the US to return at 3%.

Airforce by 2020? How would China be able to match the nearly 200 F-22s, 500-600 F-35s and the 2000 F-15s/F-16s that the US will have in 2020?

J-20 is about the same quantity as F-22, and J-31 will be pulled out in a good number.

 

[UKBengali]

RMB will bounce back after G20, and the chance for China to return at 8% is better than the US to return at 3%.

US growth has gone down to 1% over the last year.
Meanwhile China is growing at nearly 7% a year and the Chinese government predicts 6.5% over the next 5 years. US will almost certainly see a recession in the next 5 years and so it may end up with zero average growth. China will make massive progress by 2021 in eliminating the nominal advantage that the US holds in total GDP.

J-20 is about the same quantity as F-22, and J-31 will be pulled out in a good number.

I think that the J-20, with WS-15 engine, will be comparable to the F-22 but China will have no more than 100 by 2020 as it will take some time to ramp up production.
J-31, which will easily surpass F-35 in performance, is likely to not be ready for service into China the early part of next decade as we are currently seeing little progress as regards prototypes.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

US growth has gone down to 1% over the last year.
Meanwhile China is growing at nearly 7% a year and the Chinese government predicts 6.5% over the next 5 years. US will almost certainly see a recession in the next 5 years and so it may end up with zero average growth. China will make massive progress by 2021 in eliminating the nominal advantage that the US holds in total GDP.



I think that the J-20, with WS-15 engine, will be comparable to the F-22 but China will have no more than 100 by 2020 as it will take some time to ramp up production.
J-31, which will easily surpass F-35 in performance, is likely to not be ready for service into China the early part of next decade as we are currently seeing little progress as regards prototypes.

The prototype of the J-20B will be tested by next year.