U.S. Intelligence: China's Stealth Fighter Deployment in 2018!

[WAQAS119]

Great news..... Keep it up

 

[TechLahore]

While the US military might be playing this up in order to get funding, I don't think the assessment is inaccurate. Everything China has done so far suggests that they have the intent, capability and resources to rapidly upgrade their military capabilities and they are interested in force projection beyond their traditional sphere of influence. A fifth gen fighter is one of the most key components of such a capability and undoubtedly, it is being funded generously and accelerated in every way possible. China really wants this. So far, whatever China has "really wanted", they've gotten. And many times, they've surprised analysts and observers with their rapid timelines.

So, net-net, we don't know for a fact, but if I was a betting man, I would certainly bet that the US estimate is not at all far from the truth. A 2018 deployment would suggest a first flight in the 2013 time frame.

 

[illuminatidinesh]

Since from when the Chinese people started to accept the news from US intelligence???? This report is aimed at improving their own squadron of F22. However I wont be surprised to see JXX even before 2018, they usually work hard now that they r more focused after the PAK 50 test flight.

 

[Comet]

Looks to an attempt to get F-22 program back on track.

 

[thinkingcap81]

While the US military might be playing this up in order to get funding, I don't think the assessment is inaccurate. Everything China has done so far suggests that they have the intent, capability and resources to rapidly upgrade their military capabilities and they are interested in force projection beyond their traditional sphere of influence. A fifth gen fighter is one of the most key components of such a capability and undoubtedly, it is being funded generously and accelerated in every way possible. China really wants this. So far, whatever China has "really wanted", they've gotten. And many times, they've surprised analysts and observers with their rapid timelines.

So, net-net, we don't know for a fact, but if I was a betting man, I would certainly bet that the US estimate is not at all far from the truth. A 2018 deployment would suggest a first flight in the 2013 time frame.

Hi TechSir,

I agree with the bolded part and not so sure about the rest. The rest will certainly follow --- in good time and good time may not be as early as 2018.

I am not belittling Chinese achievements as they are a dedicated people. But the other countries that have achieved such a technological feat have decades of top-quality talent and expertise. Developing this takes time and it is hard to believe that China will leapfrog to this stage is so short a time and equal the US/Russians. One does not build capacities overnight.

Even if China and later on India become economic giants, their technological levels would not yet have reached maturity. A couple of good products here and there are very much likely even now for China, but something as complex as a 5th gen fighter deployed by 2018 is too much to believe right now. There are even reports that J-10B and aircraft turbines need to be worked on.

However if China does manage this feat i am sure that this will send shockwaves across all the developed nations and India too --- for this would mean that the Chinese have finally arrived.

 

[gambit]

Gambit old chap , where r ya?

We can't wait for ya insight on this...

Scared...???

 

[ao333]

Hi TechSir,

I agree with the bolded part and not so sure about the rest. The rest will certainly follow --- in good time and good time may not be as early as 2018.

I am not belittling Chinese achievements as they are a dedicated people. But the other countries that have achieved such a technological feat have decades of top-quality talent and expertise. Developing this takes time and it is hard to believe that China will leapfrog to this stage is so short a time and equal the US/Russians. One does not build capacities overnight.

Even if China and later on India become economic giants, their technological levels would not yet have reached maturity. A couple of good products here and there are very much likely even now for China, but something as complex as a 5th gen fighter deployed by 2018 is too much to believe right now. There are even reports that J-10B and aircraft turbines need to be worked on.

However if China does manage this feat i am sure that this will send shockwaves across all the developed nations and India too --- for this would mean that the Chinese have finally arrived.

1) I think you are misinformed about China. The commies have been copying and reverse-engineering Soviet designs of all sorts since day 1. And that's 8 decades ago, long before Raj ended. In the 50s, before the Sino-Soviet split, the Soviets sent their best weapon designs to China in hope of raising it to defy Pax Americana. The US aside, it's not too surprising that the Chinese will equal the Russians in the next decade, given that they're already exceeding in some areas, namely, surface navy and rockets. Though, I remain skeptical of China's ability to overtake Russia in areas including, bombers, helos, missiles, and submarines.

2) It is noteworthy that civilian technology has little to do with military. One can build a military equivalent to that of Russia's with little more than civilian lens products. And yes, Chinese turbofans are indeed poor in quality.

 

[Parashuram1]

Gentlemen, I would be very much interested to know specifically from our Chinese fellow members here, that if the JXX programme is indeed slated for a formal induction in 2018, then when would the first prototype be flown?

Considering Moscow's as well as New Delhi's official intent to induct 5th generation fighters at around the same time, they have flown their first prototype test flight now. While both Russia and China are used to keeping their military development a secret, Moscow has finally revealed at least the test flight. Now taking the complexity of the fighter's nature in development, is this new not perhaps a little to pre-mature or have I missed the test flight of Beijing's new fighter? If not then when does China intend to launch its first test flight?

Surely since this is a big achievement on behalf of Beijing, it would definitely release such a news of national pride to the entire world, therefore cementing its position firmly in aviation industry, isn't it? After all, Chinese have proven their capabilities to develop excellent goods in shortest times possible. But this is a stealth fighter we are talking about, not a tried and tested platform, that too when China would be making their first stealth fighter aircraft.

I would be grateful to all Chinese members if any of you can provide me with an official Chinese source that has disclosed an intended test flight date. Because knowing American reports, Saddam Hussein was believed to possess something along the lines of Iranians, but nothing much was found from his arsenal of weapons except some buried MiG fighters.

This being United States' last major intelligence failure, we can safely assume this is a lure to attract more funds for the now ceased F-22 programme. There is simply no other explanation for this sudden disclosure of such over-estimations.

 

[gambit]

Gentlemen, I would be very much interested to know specifically from our Chinese fellow members here, that if the JXX programme is indeed slated for a formal induction in 2018, then when would the first prototype be flown?

<snipped>

This being United States' last major intelligence failure, we can safely assume this is a lure to attract more funds for the now ceased F-22 programme. There is simply no other explanation for this sudden disclosure of such over-estimations.

Be careful now...Overestimation carries the possibility of being in error and to the Chinese fanboys here, while the US is wrong in many things, this is the one thing the US cannot -- simply cannot -- be wrong. If you persist in even implying that the US is in error, thereby implying this as-yet seen Chinese 'stealth' fighter aircraft may be inferior to the F-22, you are a racist harboring a colonialist hatred for the Chinese people.

 

[noksss]

2018 = Chinese indigenous 5th

2018 = Indian imported 5th

Before the Indians here start burning down my house, I have only one thing to say:

FGFA will be made in Russia.

PS: Did Wolf just take an average of Deputy He's [2017-2019] IOC date?

Before talking about indian Burning down ur house The engine developed by china should burn properly to Make ur FGFA fly
Bcoz u are still importing the engine from russia for ur JF-17 aircraft and ur locally produced ws-10 engine is of poor quality as admitted by the AVIC top brass

 

[thunder rules]

if its really possible that china will make a 5th gen in just 8 years?? even prototype is yet to take off.. but any waz our best wishes are with china..

 

[TATA]

New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence | Reuters

"New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence

Jim Wolf
WASHINGTON
Thu May 20, 2010 10:46pm EDT

(Reuters) - China is building an advanced combat jet that may rival within eight years Lockheed Martin Corp's F-22 Raptor, the premier U.S. fighter, a U.S. intelligence official said.

World | China

The date cited for the expected deployment is years ahead of previous Pentagon public forecasts and may be a sign that China's rapid military buildup is topping many experts' expectations.

"We're anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter ... operational right around 2018," Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center testified on Thursday to a congressionally mandated group that studies national security implications of U.S.-China economic ties.

"Fifth-generation" fighters feature cutting-edge capabilities, including shapes, materials and propulsion systems designed to make them look as small as a swallow on enemy radar screens.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates had said last year that China "is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020" and only a "handful" by 2025.

He made the comments on July 16 to the Economic Club of Chicago while pushing Congress to cap F-22 production at 187 planes in an effort to save billions of dollars in the next decade.

Ulman is China "issues manager" at the center that is the U.S. military's prime intelligence producer on foreign air and space forces, weapons and systems. He said China's military was eyeing options for possible use of force against Taiwan, which Beijing deems a rogue province.

The People's Liberation Army, as part of its Taiwan planning, also is preparing to counter "expected U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan," he told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

He said the PLA's strategy included weakening U.S. air power by striking air bases, aircraft carrier strike groups and support elements if the U.S. stepped in.

Attacks against U.S. "basing infrastructure" in the western Pacific would be carried out by China's air force along with an artillery corps' conventional cruise missile and ballistic missile forces, he said outlining what he described as a likely scenario.

He described China as a "hard target" for intelligence-gathering and said there were a lot of unknowns about its next fighter, a follow-on to nearly 500 4th generation fighters "that can be considered at a technical parity" with older U.S. fighters.

"It's yet to be seen exactly how (the next generation) will compare one on one with say an F-22," Ulman told the commission. "But it'll certainly be in that ballpark."

Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, is in the early stages of producing another fifth-generation fighter, the F-35. Developed with eight partner countries in three models with an eye to achieving economies of scale and export sales, it will not fly as fast nor as high as the F-22.

Gates has argued that the United States enjoys a lopsided advantage in fighters, warships and other big-ticket military hardware. Some U.S. congressional decisions on arms programs amount to overkill, out of touch with "real-world" threats and today's economic strains, he said in two speeches on the issue this month.

"For example, should we really be up in arms over a temporary projected shortfall of about 100 Navy and Marine strike fighters relative to the number of carrier wings, when America's military possesses more than 3,200 tactical combat aircraft of all kinds?" Gates said on May 8.

"Is it a dire threat that by 2020 the United States will have only 20 times more advanced stealth fighters than China?" he added at the Eisenhower presidential library in Abilene, Kansas.

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, discounted the gap between the timelines cited by Gates and Ulman. He declined to comment on whether China had made enough progress since last July to change intelligence on the next fighter's debut.

Richard Fisher, an expert on the Chinese military at the private International Assessment and Strategy Center, said Gates' decision to end F-22 production is proving to be "potentially very wrong."

"We will need more F-22s if we are going to adequately defend our interests," he said in an interview on Thursday at the hearing.

Bruce Lemkin, a U.S. Air Force deputy undersecretary for ties to foreign air forces, told the commission he had visited Taiwan twice in his official capacity and that the capabilities of Taiwan's aging F-16s, also built by Lockheed, were not "keeping up."

Whether to meet Taiwan's request for advanced F-16 fighters or upgrade the old ones was still under review by the Obama administration, he said before Ulman spoke."

last time U.S. Intelligence was saying that there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

But the reality was that Americans invaded Iraq for oil.

Now the same is here, they want funds and order for F-22 also it will scare south korea and japan.

As chinese fanboi are jumping up down since when you start believing USA and its report, western media, capitalist Jews media and what not.

 

[ao333]

Gentlemen, I would be very much interested to know specifically from our Chinese fellow members here, that if the JXX programme is indeed slated for a formal induction in 2018, then when would the first prototype be flown?

Considering Moscow's as well as New Delhi's official intent to induct 5th generation fighters at around the same time, they have flown their first prototype test flight now. While both Russia and China are used to keeping their military development a secret, Moscow has finally revealed at least the test flight. Now taking the complexity of the fighter's nature in development, is this new not perhaps a little to pre-mature or have I missed the test flight of Beijing's new fighter? If not then when does China intend to launch its first test flight?

Surely since this is a big achievement on behalf of Beijing, it would definitely release such a news of national pride to the entire world, therefore cementing its position firmly in aviation industry, isn't it? After all, Chinese have proven their capabilities to develop excellent goods in shortest times possible. But this is a stealth fighter we are talking about, not a tried and tested platform, that too when China would be making their first stealth fighter aircraft.

I would be grateful to all Chinese members if any of you can provide me with an official Chinese source that has disclosed an intended test flight date. Because knowing American reports, Saddam Hussein was believed to possess something along the lines of Iranians, but nothing much was found from his arsenal of weapons except some buried MiG fighters.

This being United States' last major intelligence failure, we can safely assume this is a lure to attract more funds for the now ceased F-22 programme. There is simply no other explanation for this sudden disclosure of such over-estimations.

On the contrary, your assessment of China in general is heavily flawed.

1) It would seem that your stance on China's fifth generation fighter is fairly pro-India and anti-China, similar to that of a Wikipedian I have come across. It is noteworthy that the FGFA is planned to be inducted in 2018, falsifying the following statement:

they have flown their first prototype test flight now.

2) If you knew about the aviation industry in question as you purportly sound to know about then you'd realize that unlike India, the Chinese don't publicize their projects to deflect media speculation and ease Taiwan's fear, which often results in arms purchase. I ROLFed:

definitely release such a news of national pride.

3) I am dubious of your intent in the comment, but you should take note that the J-XX IOC date was disclosed by a Senior Deputy in a publicized interview, on national television. It was a very uncommon gesture and surprised many. Given that Dep He was quoted on 2017-2019, 2018 is quite plausible.

4) Though, I have to agree with your last paragraph as it is understandable for non-nationals to dismiss this estimation as bait.

5) Welcome Gambit. Please give us a comprehensive analaysis of how the F-22 is superior to the PAK FA and J-XX while I take a trip to South Vietnam to butcher me some gooks for dinner.

 

[gambit]

But the reality was that Americans invaded Iraq for oil.

You certain of that...???

Iraq and China Sign $3 Billion Oil Contract - washingtonpost.com

By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, August 29, 2008

BAGHDAD, Aug. 28 -- Iraq and China signed a $3 billion deal this week to develop a large Iraqi oil field, the first major commercial oil contract here with a foreign company since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Contracts Awarded to Russian, Norwegian Firms on Last Day of Iraq Oil Auction | Middle East | English

The Iraqi government expressed satisfaction with the outcome of major two-day oil auction, Saturday after awarding the prized West Qurna Phase Two oil field to both Russia's Lukoil and Norway's Statoil.

I take it you do not read current events much...

 

[gambit]

5) Welcome Gambit. Please give us a comprehensive analaysis of how the F-22 is superior to the PAK FA and J-XX while I take a trip to South Vietnam to butcher me some gooks for dinner.

Jealous...??? There is plenty of Vietnamese 'gooks' in Canada. Why bother going all the way to Asia? Do the 'gooks' in Canada taste any different? Am curious about the cuisine of white Canadian racists.