U.S.-India Deal Said to 'Increase Nuclear Danger'

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The contempt for the enemy (i.e. India) syndrome has afflicted the Pakistan military too for a long time, forgetting the fact that the Indian and Pakistani forces were part of the same armed forces with similar fighting traditions till 1947. The Indian soldier was contemptuously referred to as a dal-khor bania (lentil-eating moneylender) while we prided ourselves as a superior meat-eating warrior nation.

Flushed with pride in the wake of what really was a very minor operation in the Rann of Kutch in early 1965, we dreamt of marching on Delhi and raising the Pakistani flag on the Red Fort as we sat out the hot summer of 1965 in the field, with no senior officer ever talking any sense to us brash youngsters. (My late friend Rana Bilal and I got a good dressing down from the CO when we once suggested over lunch that the Indian soldier might have some fighting qualities too and that we shouldn’t take him very lightly). With barely six infantry and one and a half armoured divisions (6 Armoured Div being nothing more than the old 100 Armoured Brigade Group which I joined on getting commissioned in 1962) we deluded ourselves into thinking that we would easily overrun the much larger Indian forces.

The Indians played from a different sheet of music, and the rest is history. No lessons were learnt, and then we found ourselves mired in East Pakistan. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the conflict, the despised Bengali Mukti Bahini were no walkover as they fought tooth and nail for their freedom, and won the day with the support of the “lala.” One thing is beyond dispute: our generals sitting in Rawalpindi were well and truly out-generaled by their Indian counterparts, and we ended up losing half the country, notwithstanding the bravery of the Pakistani rank and file. As B.H. Liddell-Hart said, “Wars are won and lost in the minds of the generals, not in the bodies of their men.”
We still learnt no lessons: addressing the students of the 1981 Armed Forces War Course in which General Musharraf was then a student, the then CGS emphatically said that one Pakistani soldier is equal to ten Indian soldiers, forgetting the old adage that “God is on the side of the bigger battalions,” while faith and hope are not cogent factors in military planning. Several years later we got embroiled in Kargil, conveniently forgetting that the Indians were not ever going to give up an inch of what they consider to be their territory without a stiff fight, come what may. After the initial setbacks and intelligence failures, they threw everything into getting the heights vacated in Kargil, and seemed willing to spread the scope of the conflict to the international border, and even to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship.
The result was that Nawaz Sharif had to dash off to Washington DC, hat in hand, to beg Clinton to broker a ceasefire; the captured heights, held at the cost of heavy loss of life, had to be vacated. He paid the price for his follies soon thereafter.

The moral of the story? Those who invade other people’s land and underestimate the resolve of the enemy to resist the occupation do so at their own grave peril. People of occupied lands, when well led and motivated, will fight to the last man to win back their country for the grasp of the occupier, no matter what.

From the article “Never despise your enemy!” by BRIG M. SHER KHAN (RETD) that appeared in the Pakistani newspaper THE NATION published on Wednesday, January 17, 2007.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

KBaghdadi,

Excellent analysis.

I reckon by your comment you are implying that Brig Shaukat Qadir and Brif M Sher Khan of the Pakistani Army are Zionist, Crusador and Brahmanical.

And the Pakistani newspapers The Nation and Daily Times are Zionist, Crusador and Brahmanical media.

Logic!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I am sorry, were you confusing India with Pakistan? Im pretty darn sure, that it was not India supplying nuclear tech to Libya, North Korea or which ever else godforsaken country that Pakistan did. The one thing that most countries have been harping on CONSISTENTLY is that India is NOT like Pakistan. They have NOT proliferated nuke tech. That is one of the baseline arguments in favour of the deal.

So puh lease, i dont think any Pakistani has the right to even think about talking about proliferation concerns.

Well technically it wasn't Pakistan, but a rogue individual that committed those acts. Individuals within the U.S research establishment have also been responsible for "proliferating" sensitive technology to China and Israel. Those acts by rogue individuals do not make the U.S a "proliferating regime".

India's Proliferation Record:
Nuclear and Missile Diversion​

This collection of articles and testimony describes India's diversion of civilian foreign assistance to its missile and nuclear weapon programs.

http://www.wisconsinproject.org/IndiaDiversion.html​

I believe pakistanis have as much right as anyone else to comment on issues related to their national security, and the stability of the region and country.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Agnostic Muslim,

One can hardly call him a rogue individual.

Nuclear secrets are not that easily pilfered out of the offices or the nuclear plant, and that too on a regular basis, since these are high security areas and for India and Pakistan are areas of grave concern.

In fact, all scientists would be under some sort of surveillance to see that they do not stray.

Therefore, with all due respect to your views, I wonder if AQK (if that is who you are meaning by 'rogue individual') could go globetrotting and handing over Pakistan's nuclear secrets to all and sundry without the tacit approval of the powers that be.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Agnostic Muslim,

One can hardly call him a rogue individual.

Nuclear secrets are not that easily pilfered out of the offices or the nuclear plant, and that too on a regular basis, since these are high security areas and for India and Pakistan are areas of grave concern.

In fact, all scientists would be under some sort of surveillance to see that they do not stray.

Therefore, with all due respect to your views, I wonder if AQK (if that is who you are meaning by 'rogue individual') could go globetrotting and handing over Pakistan's nuclear secrets to all and sundry without the tacit approval of the powers that be.

Perhaps the term was used a bit loosely, no doubt he had support from those under his influence. From accounts I have read, his security staff was answerable to him and only him. While your point about the areas involved being highly sensitive is valid, in this event, it was a case of the personality being bigger than the system, which in Pakistan's history has happened quite often, and is not that far fetched a scenario. I can remember sitting listening to my father and his friends joking about how even the Prime Ministers in Pakistan had to ask for Khan's permission to visit any institutions related to Pakistan's Nuclear program. That may not be true, but it serves to illustrate how much power his "personality" had accumulated. Even now people worship him as the "father of the Pakistani Bomb", though his role as a metallurgist was a minor one at best.

The atomic tests conducted by Pakistan were eventually conducted by the PAEC, not the KRL that Khan was in charge of. Khans program was believed to be incomplete/inadequate. That would explain the "duds" that the Libyans obtained. If the Pakistani government was truly interested in "exporting" weapons, it seems odd that they would have sold "duds".

 

[blain2]

They have created a loophole or a cushion there too if im not mistaken. by law till now US should have stopped further supply unilaterally but now it can ask for congress/senate approval before it does so. So it does provide India with a window.

Bull,

I do not think any loopholes exist at least from the US standpoint:

A senior administration official familiar with negotiations conceded that the United States cannot guarantee that India will refrain from testing a nuclear weapon but said that New Delhi would pay a very high price if it did. "The whole system is stacked against testing. The American president would have the right to ask for return of any technology. That's a huge penalty to pay. India would also have to think about the reaction from the Europeans and other suppliers of nuclear technology.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/27/AR2007072702360.html

However others may continue to supply.

 

[joey]

No the US will stop the supply, however others in the NSG will not. This is the problem with this deal from a proliferation standpoint. If India tests (which it will as the new technology infusion will lead to design refinement), then US by law has to suspend the supply. However this suspension does not apply to others in the NSG. So the technology and materials will be siphoned off to the nuclear program so lets not play **** here.

Incorrect Analysis on another testing along with design infusion. First of all Warhead design is not what this deal is about, and you cannot link nuke warhead with that of this deal at all. I'll keep it simple and will quote what NSA says, "We dont need to divert to increase our weapons", Its plain and simple Reality, The US knows we are a de-facto NWS who has been contributing in the nuke sector right from independence if that is what to be taken as benchmark, Its better for them to engage us peacefully rather than alieniate us. As We have made it very clear to them, Nothing more nothing less than 123.

We dont need to divert Uranium to make bombs, nor U-233 contaminated with U-232 is a weapons threat and should not be treated as such to begin with which even the IAEA has back policy regarding the same.

Just for the AwHR You can look into this for its fuel cycle and make a guessmate does India really needs to divert Uranium et al?
http://www.indian-nuclear-society.org.in/conf/2003/1.pdf

I'll still refrain from taking details on this deal regarding pros and cons until unless I see and study the text in my leisure, however If you ask me from Pakistani POV, Yes US has done double standards in recognising India as NWS through this deal while It didnt did it to Pakistan who were their ally for over 50 years, Thats the reality a win for Indian diplomacy and , This is the simplest way you can describe this, but then again a little bit of Chinese lobbying and Nehrus pussyfooting took us away from the Security Council Permenent Membership.

I'll quote Kirk Sorensen (A Scientist and expert) of Energy from Thorium issue,

For the US and its partners to call India anything less than a full nuclear state is an insult and calls into question their ability to recognize just how much the Indians have done.


Agnostic, The winconsin project is a joke on the links it gives, not on the dates et al, equipment being here and there et al but the overall details inside, Once I did took up a bit details on one of that links report and posted in another thread which is lost somewhere in Indian mil thread but the main topic on nuke issue in Indian mil section is sticky and locked, They lacks the level of technicality and passes on things based on sheer generalisation just like they do for Space et al (just check a recently posted on the same by cheetah) when much of them if you read biographies of real men who worked in em like Kalam et al has been proven wrong. We did diverted thing in first place, but thats different than the whole picture the website presents.

Proliferation if you want to define it by scientists who works there et al then the whole world is a ploriferator, read the ex-CIA's banned book, regarding nuke secrets and ploriferation, I'll get the name have to look a bit.

 

[Marathaman]

Well we still claim, as far as I know, that it was primarily the "Mujahideen" that infiltrated the area, with some support from paramilitary forces. You can analyze the same situation several different ways; the way I see it, Musharraf took over, there was political stability in Pakistan, the economy started growing, missile and other conventional military capabilities started growing, and there was relative "peace and stability" in the region.

As far as your "theory", don't project your own "skewed" line of thinking as that of Pakistanis. So far, you are the only one I have heard say such a thing, that if "Pakistan has the upper hand then instability is fine", but according to you, its a view we apparently hold. Whats your evidence to back up this view?

The Instability comment was meant for Soldier.

 

[Neo]

Godammit...I never said Pakistan had the upper hand. Read the posts properly before replying.

Refrain from swearing, we hear you!

We all know about Pakistan's Kashmir obsession...
don't give me that crap. If Pakistan gets the chance...she will invade Kashmir first thing.

And India is not obsessed? Kashmir has the largest concentration of IA troops, since its still a disputed region I'd say your side is equally obsessed!

Incase you haven't noticed...the Nuclear Deal is for building Nuclear Reactors, not Nuclear Bombs.How will the transfer of reactor technology lead to arms race?

True, but it will allow India to import fuel for civil reactors and the 8 unsafehuarded military reactors will fully concentrate on producing weapon frade plutonium.
Indirectly it will boost India's nuclear arsenal.

The US will withdraw the moment India test nuclear weapons. The whole deal is centered about the understanding that India will use the tech for peaceful purposes.

You've got to be kidding me! US has provided guarantees that she will not halt supply of fuel even if India conducts nuclear tests in future! Thats the whole issue delaying the 123 agreemt!
What newspapers do you read?

 

[joey]

Neo just for letting you know,

"True, but it will allow India to import fuel for civil reactors and the 8 unsafehuarded military reactors will fully concentrate on producing weapon frade plutonium.
Indirectly it will boost India's nuclear arsenal."

India dont need to pump up anything more for any more Pu, It has more than enough! in Simple way, check the link i gave above, Ths US knows this perfectly and thus is engaging India for good as there cannot be anything bad.

 

[blain2]

Incorrect Analysis on another testing along with design infusion. First of all Warhead design is not what this deal is about, and you cannot link nuke warhead with that of this deal at all. I'll keep it simple and will quote what NSA says, "We dont need to divert to increase our weapons", Its plain and simple Reality, The US knows we are a de-facto NWS who has been contributing in the nuke sector right from independence if that is what to be taken as benchmark, Its better for them to engage us peacefully rather than alieniate us. As We have made it very clear to them, Nothing more nothing less than 123.

We dont need to divert Uranium to make bombs, nor U-233 contaminated with U-232 is a weapons threat and should not be treated as such to begin with which even the IAEA has back policy regarding the same.

Just for the AwHR You can look into this for its fuel cycle and make a guessmate does India really needs to divert Uranium et al?
http://www.indian-nuclear-society.org.in/conf/2003/1.pdf

I'll still refrain from taking details on this deal regarding pros and cons until unless I see and study the text in my leisure, however If you ask me from Pakistani POV, Yes US has done double standards in recognising India as NWS through this deal while It didnt did it to Pakistan who were their ally for over 50 years, Thats the reality a win for Indian diplomacy and , This is the simplest way you can describe this, but then again a little bit of Chinese lobbying and Nehrus pussyfooting took us away from the Security Council Permenent Membership.

I'll quote Kirk Sorensen (A Scientist and expert) of Energy from Thorium issue,

For the US and its partners to call India anything less than a full nuclear state is an insult and calls into question their ability to recognize just how much the Indians have done.


Agnostic, The winconsin project is a joke on the links it gives, not on the dates et al, equipment being here and there et al but the overall details inside, Once I did took up a bit details on one of that links report and posted in another thread which is lost somewhere in Indian mil thread but the main topic on nuke issue in Indian mil section is sticky and locked, They lacks the level of technicality and passes on things based on sheer generalisation just like they do for Space et al (just check a recently posted on the same by cheetah) when much of them if you read biographies of real men who worked in em like Kalam et al has been proven wrong. We did diverted thing in first place, but thats different than the whole picture the website presents.

Proliferation if you want to define it by scientists who works there et al then the whole world is a ploriferator, read the ex-CIA's banned book, regarding nuke secrets and ploriferation, I'll get the name have to look a bit.

Joey,

Where have I said that there is a link between a "warhead" and the deal? The issue is a simple one and an obvious one at that too. Once the floodgates of NSG open, then technology as well as equipment will start flowing in. Personnel who are working with technologies on the civilian nuclear program will go back and forth into the military program and there is no stopping of that. International observers or IAEC cannot baby sit each and every one of Indian nuclear sites. This means that potential for siphoning knowledge and material exists

Also lets not kid ourselves and others here that all India is getting is uranium. The NSG exports various materials and excess including plutonium and uranium. The bottom line is that there is not sure shot way of avoiding infusion of technology and material into the Indian weapons program. Your claim about NSA is just that....what else are they going to say, "we are anxiously waiting to siphon off technology"??

Indian weapons program is nowhere close to being in a state where it would not take advantage of the windfall which comes by way of this deal. So lets not be ridiculous and claim otherwise. Those who are against the deal have some very credible and factual issues with this deal.

Also comments like those from Kirk Sorensen only speak to the obvious which is yes India has a nuclear capability. But the issue is not a denial of this capability, rather how not to make it more advanced when the floodgates of NSG are opened up.

 

[Marathaman]

Refrain from swearing, we hear you!

Sorry bout that.

And India is not obsessed? Kashmir has the largest concentration of IA troops, since its still a disputed region I'd say your side is equally obsessed!

Indian Kashmir belongs to India.It is not disputed in India's opinion. The troop concentration is because of terrorism.India is not obsessed with invading AK. Pakistan is.

True, but it will allow India to import fuel for civil reactors and the 8 unsafehuarded military reactors will fully concentrate on producing weapon frade plutonium.
Indirectly it will boost India's nuclear arsenal.

Yeah, but the Nuclear tech won't be used for making missiles surely. As far as spent fuel is concerned, India can find other means to obtain weapons grade plutonium anyways, as I'm sure she has done in the past.

You've got to be kidding me! US has provided guarantees that she will not halt supply of fuel even if India conducts nuclear tests in future! Thats the whole issue delaying the 123 agreemt!
What newspapers do you read?

Er...the US has said that it will halt fuel supply, and take the tech back. If anything, this deal is a deterrent against further nuclear testing by India.

 

[blain2]

Neo just for letting you know,

Ths US knows this perfectly and thus is engaging India for good as there cannot be anything bad.

Had the US known this perfectly well and had not doubted, the deal would not have taken so long (much resistance has been bulldozed by the Bush administration in light of short term gains here, but the fact is that there are massive misgivings outside of the administration about this). There is all the likelihood of this technology being used to start a massive arms race. I actually do not have a problem with India getting this stuff as it relieves pressure off Pakistan for doing the same. Based on the statement from NCA in Islamabad today, it seems Pakistan is well set in continual upgrades of its own program.

 

[Samudra]

Hey, per informed and learned people on other fora we have had the capacity to make atleast 2000 nuclear bombs for some time now.

So this US help coming into increase the size of our arsenal is a joke. We're not building anymore than a thousand weapons(even thats a HUGE NUMBER we may never build, just an assumption). So what practical purpose will this US help freeing up local uranium serve ? You're talking theoretical, I'm thinking practical.

Also consider that our uranium mining and processing facilities are now being provided with adequate funding unlike the dry years of early nineties. So we're quite OK by ourselves.

 

[blain2]

That information as per informed folks is pretty much junk because its biased to say the least and there is no way to discount it because you do not even know what the actual source is. Lets not kid ourselves into believing that India will not gain militarily from this exercise. Again I take you back to the point that had this been such a benign deal, the opposition (despite massive Israeli and Indian lobbying) would not have been so significant in the US.

There are gaps in the technology transfers which will be taken advantage of in the further development of the Indians weapons program.