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Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

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HannibalBarca said:
Well...Gonna be hard.
Seems Tel RIfaat deal failed... so Manbij... gonna be difficult... if no deal is found.
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The situation in Tal Rifat and Manbij is very different. Also we dont have any official information from FSA or from TSK about the Tal Rifat deal. Negotiations are continuing.
 
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kartal1 said:
The situation in Tal Rifat and Manbij is very different. Also we dont have any official information from FSA or from TSK about the Tal Rifat deal. Negotiations are continuing.
Click to expand...
Well it is...Both areas are under "Superpower support circle"...
What do you think Turkey gonna do in Manbij, if the US do not accept a deal to back up or to share power?
Do you think Turkey gonna send her soldiers and tanks, with US soldiers around?
Do you think the US will back down?

What will happen..will be a simple game of proxies... TR will send FSA and the US will send SDF... Both Supporters will watch from behind and hope his side win... If something like that happen... Both will not use air support... and if the US does... TR will not...

Many around here think... the US as being less "Dangerous" than Russia answer... But it's quite the opposite...
 
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HannibalBarca said:
Well it is...Both areas are under "Superpower support circle"...
What do you think Turkey gonna do in Manbij, if the US do not accept a deal to back up or to share power?
Do you think Turkey gonna send her soldiers and tanks, with US soldiers around?
Do you think the US will back down?

What will happen..will be a simple game of proxies... TR will send FSA and the US will send SDF... Both Supporters will watch from behind and hope his side win... If something like that happen... Both will not use air support... and if the US does... TR will not...

Many around here think... the US as being less "Dangerous" than Russia answer... But it's quite the opposite...
Click to expand...
This is not right. The area of Tal Rifat if not controlled by YPG will be controlled by Assad because the Russians are there while the situation in Manbij is not like that. If the area in Manbij is going to be controlled by someone its going to be controlled by Turkey with the approve of US or by joint Turkey-US military police kind of forces together with militia that is approved by the both forces and for sure not YPG. There is not a variant in which US will not accept a deal with Turkey because if we go by the logic of that Turkey is in the Anti DEASH coalition and NATO member US will not keep YPG in Manbij. There is not a logic to fight for that territory because 1. Its an Arab town and 2. DEASH is non present there. Also keep that in mind that there are not official confirmation about Tal Rifat. For now we know that there are negotiations and all other is pure speculation. Also take a look at the new National Security Adviser of Trump and his opinion of YPG.
 
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kartal1 said:
This is not right. The area of Tal Rifat if not controlled by YPG will be controlled by Assad because the Russians are there while the situation in Manbij is not like that. If the area in Manbij is going to be controlled by someone its going to be controlled by Turkey with the approve of US or by joint Turkey-US military police kind of forces together with militia that is approved by the both forces and for sure not YPG. There is not a variant in which US will not accept a deal with Turkey because if we go by the logic of that Turkey is in the Anti DEASH coalition and NATO member US will not keep YPG in Manbij. There is not a logic to fight for that territory because 1. Its an Arab town and 2. DEASH is non present there. Also keep that in mind that there are not official confirmation about Tal Rifat. For now we know that there are negotiations and all other is pure speculation. Also take a look at the new National Security Adviser of Trump and his opinion of YPG.
Click to expand...

YPG-ISIS doesn't matter... Syrian Conflict is not about that anymore... RIght now..Power involved want to keep or increase their influence and Assets...
Both RU and US don't need excuses for their actions...
So if Turkey couldn't get to make a deal for Tel Rifaat and around(IF) who is still an area under YPG influence... Then Manbij is also not possible... Turkey can't go against RU or US, that's a fact.
That's why she take all this time "to make a deal"... because she can't use a military action. at least not with her "soldier", proxies is a possibility...

A deal is needed for Manbij, it's the only solution.
 
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HannibalBarca said:
YPG-ISIS doesn't matter... Syrian Conflict is not about that anymore... RIght now..Power involved want to keep or increase their influence and Assets...
Both RU and US don't need excuses for their actions...
So if Turkey couldn't get to make a deal for Tel Rifaat and around(IF) who is still an area under YPG influence... Then Manbij is also not possible... Turkey can't go against RU or US, that's a fact.
That's why she take all this time "to make a deal"... because she can't use a military action. at least not with her "soldier", proxies is a possibility...
Click to expand...
Tal Rifat is not so strategic area. You just cant compare Tal Rifat with Manbij. It sounds like to compare Afrin with Raqqa. We will see how the deals will be made and if Turkey will not use military force in Manbij and the east of Euphrates. We already used military force against YPG and PKK in Sinjar both in Syria and Iraq while there were Americans in the area. You sound like you really are not able to see that Turkey can be really unpredictable. I remember how everyone was saying that Afrin is impossible as well and if I have to be fair I was one of the people that was thinking that we will not enter Afrin city center but we entered it. About that they don't have a need for a reason to expand... well I am waiting them in Idlib and North Latakia then but it seems that they stopped at Abu Dhuhur and they are not even mentioning Latakia anymore. Why?
 
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kartal1 said:
Tal Rifat is not so strategic area. You just cant compare Tal Rifat with Manbij. It sounds like to compare Afrin with Raqqa. We will see how the deals will be made and if Turkey will not use military force in Manbij and the east of Euphrates. We already used military force against YPG and PKK in Sinjar both in Syria and Iraq while there were Americans in the area. You sound like you really are not able to see that Turkey can be really unpredictable. I remember how everyone was saying that Afrin is impossible as well and if I have to be fair I was one of the people that was thinking that we will not enter Afrin city center but we entered it. About that they don't have a need for a reason to expand... well I am waiting them in Idlib and North Latakia then but it seems that they stopped at Abu Dhuhur and they are not even mentioning Latakia anymore. Why?
Click to expand...
You can't compare Afrin to Manbij...
Afrin had no "Direct" support, like Manbij or The east Side of the Euphrate.
Even the Russians didn't commit to stay in Afrin...
Turkey op in Afrin was made possible by this void and FSA support to get rid of YPG...

Tel Rifaat, may not be a strategic point for Turkey...but it is for FSA... Like we said previously... Tel rifaat and surroundings events 2 years ago...was the trigger and the main YPG hate vehicule of FSA...and therefore their full support...
Remember, that Turkey need FSA full support for Manbij, and Tel rifaat was that "FSA war treasure". THey need to have at least a bit of all that area, to keep moral and commitment at full rate among FSA ranks...

Turkey is not Russia neither US, she doesn't have their influence and their "Free card" to do whatever they want. They always need the best conditions to do so.

I still believe, that Manbij, will need a deal for Turkey to get in, and therefore Military actions will not be possible, like it isn't possible to Take all this North Aleppo area, if the Russians are against it... (Except a proxy war, but that's another thing...)

As for Iraq... We did have "Reports" of Iraqi Gov being ok with that... therefore it's not an "Invasion" or " an incursion without green lights"
 
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HannibalBarca said:
You can't compare Afrin to Manbij...
Afrin had no "Direct" support, like Manbij or The east Side of the Euphrate.
Even the Russians didn't commit to stay in Afrin...
Turkey op in Afrin was made possible by this void and FSA support to get rid of YPG...

Tel Rifaat, may not be a strategic point for Turkey...but it is for FSA... Like we said previously... Tel rifaat and surroundings events 2 years ago...was the trigger and the main YPG hate vehicule of FSA...and therefore their full support...
Remember, that Turkey need FSA full support for Manbij, and Tel rifaat was that "FSA war treasure". THey need to have at least a bit of all that area, to keep moral and commitment at full rate among FSA ranks...

Turkey is not Russia neither US, she doesn't have their influence and their "Free card" to do whatever they want. They always need the best conditions to do so.

I still believe, that Manbij, will need a deal for Turkey to get in, and therefore Military actions will not be possible, like it isn't possible to Take all this North Aleppo area, if the Russians are against it... (Except a proxy war, but that's another thing...)

As for Iraq... We did have "Reports" of Iraqi Gov being ok with that...
Click to expand...
Remember my word because when the sh1t happens I will tag you. Operation will be conducted in Iraq whenever if Iraqi Central Government is OK with that or its not! If Iraq don't get its sh!t together and don't clean Qandil mountains thousand of soldiers are ready to do so. Those words are being said by the National Security Council. I want to tell you that the National Security Council is not Erdogan and its not talking bullsh!t like him. If the National Security Council is saying so they have my full trust and support. You have the right to think whatever you want. At the end a state when Manbij and east of Euphrates is not a threat for the national security will be achieved by one or another mean. The same for Iraq. FSA is under our command and we decide what is strategic for FSA and not. If they dont like it they are free to go under HTS command and get fucked without chance for political negotiations...
 
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kartal1 said:
Remember my word because when the sh1t happens I will tag you. Operation will be conducted in Iraq whenever if Iraqi Central Government is OK with that or its not! If Iraq don't get its sh!t together and don't clean Qandil mountains thousand of soldiers are ready to do so. Those words are being said by the National Security Council. I want to tell you that the National Security Council is not Erdogan and its not talking bullsh!t like him. If the National Security Council is saying so they have my full trust and support. You have the right to think whatever you want. At the end a state when Manbij and east of Euphrates is not a threat for the national security will be achieved by one or another mean. The same for Iraq. FSA is under our command and we decide what is strategic for FSA and not. If they dont like it they are free to go under HTS command and get fucked without chance for political negotiations...
Click to expand...
Iraq isn't against it... They were news of mutual agreement for a co-op.
As for FSA... if they are gone...who's gonna fight? is Turkey ready to mobilize Dozens of thousands of troops to fight in Manbij or elsewhere in Syria? and Against the US?

Remember who is your "ONLY" ally in Syria... Except FSA... EVERYONE is against Turkey... whatever it's RU/US/IR/ASSad/YPG etc...
 
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