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Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

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Another good question.
SAA has their hands full with the Siege of Aleppo.
 
Im having a gut feeling all Aleppo fronts may be active soon. Lots of rebel activity. They will try to break the siege once more for sure. RuAf can be overstreched.
 
Whatever they are going to do with Tel Rifaat, they should do it quick. Advance againts Al-Bab should resume as soon as possible.
 
People saying SAA should go for Al Bab haven't been paying attention to Aleppo as well as towards degradation of Syrian military and the rise of Shiite militia's to fill this role with an increasing number of more high-ranking Iranian (regular) military personnel being involved (and getting killed). The only way SAA will go for Aleppo is if they want to do a PR effort but the blowback could be severe, rebels would surely try to gain something from it inside Aleppo.

SDF saying we took X area but left, there is no YPG, only FSA is common excuse for them. Done it a million times, no need wasting more words on that :).

Afrin is harder to take then you all think and won't be swooped up like Jarablus/Dabiq area's, keep in mind a large number of PKK militants resides in Afrin and attacked in Turkey (Hatay area). Plus they've been left relatively alone during the war so more prepared. They did lose 3 of their 4 tanks I think (they got them from SAA). Taking Tell Rifaat area to garner more popular support for TSK by locals as well as strengthening that area to prevent attacks from YPG (+SAA, like during siege) is needed.

In my mind I am hoping that certain area's speak out in support of FSA and see Turkish incursion in to Jarablus as partial solution/improvement of their position in the war. Keep in mind the area of Turkey has been spared from airstrikes, if other area's could receive such protection and in return accept a Turkish role in negotiations it could be good for us. Won't change all those FSA guys wanting to fight for Aleppo but still.

That IS didn't put up much of a fight in Dabiq area's except for infiltration attempts (I believe 1-2 groups were swooped up by SF guys but not much info on that) doesn't mean they won't fight in Al Bab. Al Bab is important area for them, their #2 was killed there in drone strike. Also the European terrorists that planned attacks in Europe etc are partially located here.

And it's obvious that Mosul is for now atleast part PR campaign where large number of militants will be allowed to flee (towards Syria) to easen up on the operation there. This could mean that Bab would become a bigger city and would need to be defended. Otherwise they would lose Mosul and next step would be Raqqa but that is still a bit complicated due to Syria. Hence Mosul is easier to do now.
 
Clashes still going on against YPG. TuAF raining hell on them. Turkish armour yet to join the fray.

YPG still trying to expand to east...I dunno if they are idiot or not but when FSA takes two villages (Harbul, Ehrez) YPG fighters on the east side will be cut off.
 
Clashes still going on against YPG. TuAF raining hell on them. Turkish armour yet to join the fray.

YPG still trying to expand to east...I dunno if they are idiot or not but when FSA takes two villages (Harbul, Ehrez) YPG fighters on the east side will be cut off.

Theyre desperate
 
YPG took those areas with russian airsupport. Tal Rifaat and the airbase nearby. It did it for a reason. Creating a buffer zone between rebels and the regime in that area. Its still very signiciant cause if rebels take it, they will have 3 ways to break the siege. From the north, west, and south. No good for the russian backed regime.

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So there are still who say that there is an agreement between Turkey and Russia on the fate of Aleppo... ^ ^



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¨What many dont undestand is that Syria is zero-sum game for almost all actors.


by the way, Sultan Murad and Idlib Army - both participitans of Euprhat Shield just spent a day raining shells and barrages of brand new GRAD rocket on regime held areas of Aleppo. Mostly South.
 
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