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Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

kartal1 said:
Who do you think it is?
Click to expand...

I can’t say. Certain is that a possible withdraw of US troops would benefit IS, Iranian proxies, Russia, Assad and of course Turkey. The damage would have been countries like Israel, EU/France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and of course Kurdish separatists. The problem is, within various coalitions, you have many separators and no homogeneity.

Question is, who benefit from the attack and which intention was behind them?
 
Bismarck said:
I can’t say. Certain is that a possible withdraw of US troops would benefit IS, Iranian proxies, Russia, Assad and of course Turkey. The damage would have been countries like Israel, EU/France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and of course Kurdish separatists. The problem is, within various coalitions, you have many separators and no homogeneity.

Question is, who benefit from the attack and which intention was behind them?
Click to expand...
According to sources in the attack there was Minister of State for Gulf Affairs of Saudi Arabia and also adviser from UAE, two US soldiers, one civilian worker for the Department of Defense (probably intelligence), one Private Military Contractor killed.

Some months before that attack happened rumors were around about Egyptian and UAE intelligence and security teams active in Manbij. They took a meeting in which they discussed about what steps should be taken against Turkey.

Now after all this I would not be shocked if they try to involve Saudi, Egyptian and UAE forces in the mess, keeping Turkey to the "32" kilometer zone and delivering the control of SDF with its Arab mercenaries in the more Southern areas to them. If I was them I would have did it the same way. In that case both power and balance would be on my allies side when I get my troops out of there and also Turkey would be inside Syrian territories along the border securing it, will secure Suleyman Shah tomb and by doing that I am not sure if further intervention in Syria would have a legal status. The special card of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the Suleyman Shah tomb and the right to eliminate any threat to the security of Turkey along the border. If such scenario occur I am not sure that we will be able to do anything more according to the international law.

We must keep in mind that Turkish forces will also not stay forever if there is not an official UN peace keeping force and Turkey is not a part of it on the East of Euphrates. If Turkey stays as a guarantor force for how much it will stay? So if normalization and political process starts with Saudi, Egyptian and UAE forces there which have "YES" from the next Syrian government they would ruin all our efforts in the middle and long term because I am sure that they would want a federation under Egyptian, Saudi and UAE guarantee and in the end of the day our presence on the East of Euphrates would be illegal and comparable to the Israeli presence on Golan and the only possible presence would be Idlib and ES-OB areas as there are not our political figures representing the Eastern of Euphrates like the opposition figures representing Idlib and OB-ES areas who would officially invite us. We could also count Idlib under their control with their Al Qaeda servants and if the situation continue like this there will be military action against Idlib and soon or late it will fall under Assad control as HTS is listed as terrorist organization by all the major players and such counter terrorist action will get the support of everyone while of course they are "concerned about the civilians" while the civilians will get evacuated by Turkish corridors.

If I have to be honest I start to get concerned about all that. I am wondering what would be the response of that genial move because if not tomorrow then after 5-10 years we will return at point one of the beginning. If there is no direct threat to Turkish security from the Syrian border there will be no reason to stay there legally. There are only three solutions coming to my mind. First solution is annexing which is not good. Second solution is possible all out war which is also not a good solution. Third solution is placing the needed people in the political structure there but these things are not done from now to tomorrow and the existing initiatives got crushed by YPG before. I hope our officials know what are they doing and solve the problem not for the next week but from its root. In the root for that operation to success is the proper work and coordination with Assad. In the end it is clear that he will decide how the whole story will end for them and I am not to optimistic about it. I think he would give them enough power to press us but on the end he will get bitten by them to. The Syrian problem is more complicated even by the problem in Iraq because on the time even if we didn't do the needed we again had some cards and played them good enough. We must be ready for the next KRG but this time on Syrian territory.
 
Looks like eastern Syria operation got into trouble. We need a deal with Assad ASAP. Otherwise Russia won’t give the green light.

 

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