Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[TheMightyBender]

Hold your horses. Waiting months will also mean YPG will trench in and perhaps even mine the place (given by certain countries)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076148301077069829

If they havent mined the places in so many years, mining it now wont help them.

 

[Taskforce]

If they havent mined the places in so many years, mining it now wont help them.

It is good that you are not a general.

Assad is not capable of disarming YPG.

He can only force federation on YPG at most and that will mean the threat will be still there, under a Ba’ath umbrella.

Solution would be Turkey helping Assad militarily and then letting Assad sign a treaty giving guarantees.

 

[Taskforce]

Only thing is that to help Assad on the battlefield is no problem and right thing to do but what are we going to do to the useless Muslim brotherhood terrorists? They will feel betrayed. Unfortunately there is no choice. We have to dump them in the bin for the greater good. Ally with Assad, Invade north Syria and give north Syria back under certain conditions and guarantees with a treaty of course (similar to treaty of guarantee of Cyprus).

 

[TheMightyBender]

It is good that you are not a general.

It is good that none of us is a general. I know that you think you are better than half of TSK generals but being a general is not a joke it requires years upon years of tenure.

Assad is not capable of disarming YPG.

That is exactly what i said (please refer to the post below)
But unless ypg surrenders SAA will not take the risk of confronting TsK in such a vast area.

Here is my take on this:

• Trump asked Erdogan to wait till US forces evacuate, which is fair.
• According to hurriyet when Trump pledged to retreat from Syria in his phone call with Erdogan, both bolton and Erdogan were surprised.
• Turkey is not ready for such a large scale operation anyways. Only 15000 TFSA soldiers were in the operation planning.
• Turkey delaying an attack on YPG exposes YPG to the world. They will start losing ground to ISIS.
• Delaying the op also prevents Trump from looking like an idiot. Because if YPG got their asses handed to them the day after Trump withdraws, he would be under serious scrutiny.
• Our biggest goal here was to make the US withdraw its support from the YPG, not invade Syria. That is done. So even if we dont invade it is still a big success.
• Delaying the op makes no difference. There is little chance SAA would protect the YPG in exchange for anything. The only remote possibility for YPG to be shielded is for them to hand over their lands to SAA.
• Russia and Iran want the syrian quagmire to end asap, so it is highly unlikely that they will try to protect ypg.
• If ypg hands over territory to saa that eliminates the need to invade in the first place. Remember this is geopolitics, TAF is not there to satisfy the wet dreams of some internet fanboys. Such an operation is a huge undertaking with grave risks and should be avoided if possible. If saa eliminates terrorist rule in northeast syria then so be it.

To sum up the only entity that could come in the way of Turkey attacking ypg is saa. Which in itself cant do it in the first place, because they dont have that kind of power and iran and russia are not willing to back them up. Even if they do come in the way of Turkey it would be by completely overtaking the areas from YPG because saa are not fools who would take such a risk for anything else.

In the off chance that the saa does take over northeastern syria, that means we took care of ypg without firing a single bullet and spending nothing. Since SAA is weak in itself, Turkey could even impose some conditions on saa.

In other words there are two outcomes to this whole issue: win or big win.

 

[Oublious]

You do realize that everything you said also applies to yourself, dont you Einstein?

No, i have never wrote stupid stories.

 

[TheMightyBender]

No, i have never wrote stupid stories.

Trolling people is one of life’s pleasures for me. So I hate people like you who make a fool of themselves and rob me of the opportunity.

 

[CAN_TR]

Funny members talking like they are smart ahaha, if we do or this and then this and that. Pathetic members talking behind ther monitor nothing else, remembers me a coffeehous wher all wortheless people come together and talk how they 'make a mountain of a molehil'.

Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

What is actually your problem?

 

[era_shield]

Erdogans statement are actually very clever.

It counters YPG narrative „we will stop fighting against ISIS when Turkey attacks us“ which in truth was to cover their inability to fight against ISIS alone without any help by American soldiers and airstrikes. But now they have no choice but to fight because Erdoğan took away their excuse, he dismantled their narrative they were building up.


The whole world will be watching them now fight against ISIS on their „own“ and the whole world will see their incompetence as ISIS will steamroll through them. YPG biggest fear is becoming reality. Their lies and incompetence will be on full display for the world, pictures of burned out YPG Humvees will be shared on the internet for everybody to see. Turkey attacking them would have been as bad but they at least could have built a narrative. Now they can’t even do that.



Assad doesn’t have the manpower to occupy anything in the east other than oil fields. They have barely enough young children for Idlip. What do you think will happen the second Assad pulls majority of its militants towards the east? The rebels groups not under our control will start an offensive. That’s how you keep everybody in line. Israel will use it to bomb every single Iranian, Syrian base maybe even invade further than the golen heights. Assad doesn’t have shit to pressure anybody with. Not Turkey nor Israel. The second they try something the Turkish Army will steamroll through to Raqqa and suddenly Assad has to deal with rebels who occupy half of the country, his worst nightmare.

Agree x 1million. YPG would've loved to let ISIS take over some territory and blame it on Turkey, and it wouldn't surprise me if YPG even bombed a European city or 2 and made it look like ISIS did it - it would've been a repeat of the 2015 PR disaster which made Turkey look bad in the world media. Might've even spurred a larger EU military response to provide support to the YPG. Turkey has to be very careful here to make sure YPG can't play the ISIS card against it.

 

[Exxxe]

Basically Erdogan said this today: we have to make a deal with Assad.

Something we said for ages but for some reason some thick headed people weren’t getting.

For Turkey the priority should be this
-refugees should be able to return without fear of prosecution
-no fragmentation of Syria

And that is about it. If that means we have to pay war reparations to Syria so be it. Or even handing out the Turkish politicians who are responsibility for flaming the civil war in Syria. That is a small price to pay for the stability on the southern border and the elimination of the refugee problem in Turkey.

Wrong and wrong

Turkey has heavily invested in syria by now and all that effort should not be wasted

Even if a deal with Assad takes place be reminded he is turkey's enemy and that's as stupid as the peace agreement you had with the PKK long ago

At the moment Turkey has a leverage and is playing the game which is rare that a ME country actually sits on the table and negotiate what happens in the ME with the big players so why let that go

Turkey has 5+ million Syrians under its belt / influence at the moment why waste that

Finally by now turkey should realize that it's either strong and standing alone or it's becoming history turkey is cornered by enemies and schemes that are not easy
( US , greece ,israel , egypt ,cyprus , UAE,saudi arabia and more )

Frankly I'm wondering how the country is not in ruins yet

 

[era_shield]

Turkey says it will take over fight against Islamic State after U.S. pull-out

Article is too long to paste -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...slamic-state-after-u-s-pull-out-idUSKCN1OK1K5

 

[CAN_TR]

Turkey says it will take over fight against Islamic State after U.S. pull-out

Article is too long to paste -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...slamic-state-after-u-s-pull-out-idUSKCN1OK1K5

Looks like SAA will deal with them. Better for us.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076063623875883010

 

[Oublious]

Turkey says it will take over fight against Islamic State after U.S. pull-out

Article is too long to paste -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...slamic-state-after-u-s-pull-out-idUSKCN1OK1K5

Better no yankees and assad shall shut up and sit down.No dirty alliance with kurds anymore, no faking france or british to play game. So it is clear, we will fight against deash. First we will destroy ypg and then deash. Every stupid comment of some members are destroyed.

 

[CAN_TR]

Better no yankees and assad shall shut up and sit down.No dirty alliance with kurds anymore, no faking france or british to play game. So it is clear, we will fight against deash. First we will destroy ypg and then deash. Every stupid comment of some members are destroyed.

You know that ISIS is in Southern Deir-ezzor?
That's 260 km from the Turkish border.

 

[HannibalBarca]

You know that ISIS is in Southern Deir-ezzor?
That's 260 km from the Turkish border.

And? TR need it all... If she wish to relocate her 4+Mil Syrians.. it's not in those few Kms of border that you will relocate them... Where more than half of it are just waste land Desert...
So at least get paid for your work with Oil fields around Deir ez Zor.

Otherwise with those few kms of border, TR will still have to pay 100% for all Syrian refugees therefore making it like "nothing happen".

But if Keeping all Syrians under TR rule and "money" then those few kms of borders are enough...it's as you wish.

 

[Bismarck]

You know that ISIS is in Southern Deir-ezzor?
That's 260 km from the Turkish border.

Is that important?

And? TR need it all... If she wish to relocate her 4+Mil Syrians.. it's not in those few Kms of border that you will relocate them... Where more than half of it are just waste land Desert...
So at least get paid for your work with Oil fields around Deir ez Zor.

Otherwise with those few kms of border, TR will still have to pay 100% for all Syrian refugees therefore making it like "nothing happen".

But if Keeping all Syrians under TR rule and "money" then those few kms of borders are enough...it's as you wish.

War is expensive.